You think they'd cut Pagan at this point instead of optioning Balazovic? I don't. There's no reason to believe this FO doesn't still view Pagan as an asset, which means they're not going to DFA him when they can simply send Balazovic down. That means it's Moran and Pagan as your mid leverage guys, or you're committing 3ish innings to one of those two on a given day. In any decent pen you'd be trying to limit either as much as possible, and now they're a step closer to high leverage.
I agree on Maeda; he doesn't deserve a spot in the rotation, but he'll get one. Maeda for Pagan in the pen is the real swap, but that's fantasy land. I don't think Varland is a step up from Maeda as far as consistency or reliability is concerned, so Idk why we'd want to carve out another rotation spot, at the expense of a usable bullpen arm, to keep both.
Yeah, it's just not the strategy I'd roll with for the next 3+ weeks.