KirbyDome89

And you're chiding people for their lack of awareness? Yeesh....

The same offense that has scored 3 runs or fewer in nearly half their games? Is it actually "clueless," to point out that the Twins lead all of baseball in strikeouts? Yeah, K rates have risen, but this team is an extreme version of that. Arraez is sitting at .382/.437/.478 right now; he's probably not a great example of Miami's offensive issues. But whining about the whining....

Luck, at least as it pertains to the baseball world, has always had a sort of "God of the gaps," feel to me. Being "lucky," for 6-7 weeks seems, ahhhh, unlikely.

No doubt that trio has been bad, but they don't have a Pagan-esque track record of being awful. If the Twins are handing the ball to any one of those guys 4 years into being a negative value player the mobs will probably be just as active. Pagan as the victim of a rabid fan base, particularly this team's, is a weird spin for me.

And if that holds, ok, that's probably the best case scenario, but I don't think that's what the angst is really about right? The Twins are 23rd in BP innings right now. The SP is ripe for regression, and with that comes more innings for the pen. Maybe (hopefully) they've got things a bit more sorted out when that starts to hit, but right now there's way too much flux in spots 4-8 (or 5-8 if we want to add Thielbar) for me to believe the pen, as currently constructed, can tread water at league average for another 100+ games, hence the concern. Maybe they get lucky and this is 2019 all over again where the top end stays remarkably healthy and turns in multiple elite performances, but that's a tough bet.

Logic would dictate that a broader SS tells a better story, i.e. we don't need to pretend his last three seasons haven't been disasters. You said nearly the same thing after his last meltdown, but I think the number was 12 IP at that time. I don't see why we're sliding the goalposts all the way to clubhouse glue guy to justify hanging on here.

No doubt it's not a great situation, and you didn't have to squint in the offseason to see it playing out this way. Yeah, I'd cycle Pagan's spot and like you said, hope somebody grabs that job. They're going to have to hand hold either way, so IMO you might as well get a head start.

The issue is that Moran and Sands fit this description (maybe minus the "perfectly," that preceded fine) as well. Sure, you need somebody who can eat up innings over the course of a season, but you can't carry three guys who have zero business handling any type of leverage. We have no clue what De Leon is, and Brock Stewart has issued 9 free passes in 9.2 innings. Those are the 4/5? Idk if I'd wait until the deadline to address Pagan's role. If they're just going to spoon feed him the lowest possible leverage I'd start the auditions early.

Probably because Jax hasn't been one of the worst relief pitchers in baseball the previous three seasons.

Does Buxton finally starting playing some innings in CF?

Confirmed, they're 28th in BB/9 as a unit. Jax and his above average walk rate are actually part of the problem.

Pretty sure their bullpen has one of the worst BB/9 in baseball.

Yeah, ptsd as soon as he walked in that run

My exact thoughts every time I saw the "one bad outing in Boston," line.

People were actually trying to convince themselves that Pagan wasn't this guy....

So far. He isn't going have a LOB% nearly 90 all year. Buckle up.

Joe Ryan started 2 minor league games for the Twins before being called up. Are we really going to credit this club with developing him? Ober has finished 4/5 of his professional seasons with 60-80ish IP. The one season he eclipsed that mark he peaked at just over 100 IP. That's any pitcher? Idk what Varland is/will be, but I don't see much reason to gush over a career that's sub 50 IP with an average K rate and a FIP pushing 5. To call him a developmental hit at this point, eh... The Twins got 11 good starts in a 60 game season. Maeda has been ineffective or hurt the last 2+ years. I doubt Dodgers fans or their FO are upset they received, at minimum, a solid BP arm under control for the next 4 years in exchange for 2 months of high tier starts. Miami's team stats are irrelevant; Arraez is killing it down there and the Twins are starting Donovan Solano and Willie Castro in the IF. The Mahle trade has been a disaster. They gambled on a guy trying to come back from shoulder issues, and those same issues immediately resurfaced. The Paddack/Pagan trade saga is over. They opted to resign Pagan and they extended Paddack. All in for the 1 season of Pagan + 5 Paddack starts over 2 years it hasn't been good. Yeah, I think we do need to ask that question, because by my count, depending on where your allegiances lay, the MN/LA swap can go either way, the Mahle and Paddack trades were busts, the Sonny Gray trade is tbd, and Ryan trade was an absolute W. 7 deep with an 8th spot rotating? Does Kenta have a timetable for return right now? Even if he does, that's 6, who's your 7th? SWR? I doubt the Twins want him anywhere near major league hitters right now. 8th?

Yeah, it should matter how/why these guys are acquired, unless you think slogging through another last place finish a la 2021, and hoping you can flip a 41 year old DH for a young SP is repeatable. The Twins didn't turn Ryan into anything, he was a finished product when they got him. It was a great trade, and I've already said he's valuable, but that deal is a one-off. The Twins don't have to have a stable of starting pitchers developed, but we're 7 years deep at this point and we're crossing our fingers on a guy who has never shown the ability to stay healthy and we're declaring Varland a success with fewer than 50 career IP. There's a middle ground somewhere between that and "be the Rays," right? Your farm system is a finite resource, and they aren't just giving up bats; pitching went out the door in the deals for Maeda, Mahle, and Gray. What's the downside to relying on trades? By definition you're giving up talent to acquire talent, hence my pushback against idea that this team is mining value. Give me sustainable, long term results over 6 weeks to open the season I guess.

Yeah I'm not arguing that Gray isn't a good pitcher. You're right, and I'm not hoarding prospects here, I just don't think acquiring all 5 of your opening day starters via trade in a 2-3 year period is exploiting untapped value. To me it signifies a lack of development and a rigid approach to FA which is why I don't think we should celebrate it.

Gordon has been bad, but he's not a journeyman 35 year old who can't play anywhere defensively. It's not a tough choice for me either.

Solano has a .615 OPS vs. LHP this year. There's zero reason he should be taking away ABs from Kirilloff simply because he stands in the right side batters box.

He's had a great start; it's also May 16th. The Twins had to ship off a 1st round draft pick for two seasons of Gray. If value is the priority, I'm skeptical that controllable talent for short term rentals is the best way to find it. Then there's the whole sustainability issue to boot. Not sure where I was whining about ace pitching.

If it's only "a few bad weeks," pulling his WAR below zero, what was he prior to that? Replacement level? I mean c'mon.... Only Gordon, Alcala, and Miranda have been worse amongst the regulars, and 2 of those 3 have been demoted.

He's worth negative WAR after 32 games, that's not "fine for most of the season."

Varland has 49 career innings, and he's sitting at a 5.13 FIP right now. Ober is one more extended IL stint away from serious bullpen consideration. Those are the developmental hits? Ryan is the only swap that sticks out as "value," and it took a TSF 2.0 for that deal to become a reality. The constant need to trade for short term pitching solutions isn't something I'd celebrate. There will always be a rationale for why moves are made, that doesn't mean those decisions were the right ones, i.e. it's entirely fair to evaluate these swaps based on how they work out.