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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    This isn't about depth. The roster is what it is, and no offseason moves were going to radically change that. In no way does that mean this team isn't heavily invested in a health resurgence, or that the extent of their investment is the norm.
  2. KirbyDome89
    And that's a situation every MLB team faces?
  3. KirbyDome89
    Every team has a CF'er that's going to miss 100 starts in CF, or a starting 1B that hasn't swung a bat in 2 years and still isn't swinging, or a 6 man rotation where 3 guys missed the entire 2nd half of last year and a 4 has missed large chunks of time beyond just last year? I don't follow other teams nearly as closly as MN, but saying "every team relies on health," feels like a massive overgeneralization here.
  4. KirbyDome89
    The ability to prognosticate? A time machine? There probably wasn't a quick fix this offseason (the current situation wasn't one season in the making either) and that doesn't change the fact that this team is relying heavily on more than just a few guys to make considerable health rebounds. To a degree, sure. To the extent that the Twins are? I doubt it. Do you think this is a 78 win team that swapped Arraez for Lopez + Vasquez?
  5. KirbyDome89
    I already said I don't, which is why I think "depth," is a silly counter when we're talking about whether or not this team relying on health bets.
  6. KirbyDome89
    What? Maeda, Mahle, and Ober (3 of their top 6 starters) are health bets. The only real "addition," to an underwhelming bullpen was Alcala, another health bet. Buxton isn't even a gamble, he's basically a lock to miss significant time. Then there's Kirilloff and Larnach. This team is absolutely relying on health. A questionable offense takes a significant step backwards if Farmer, Taylor, or Solano are playing every day.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Fair, I just think Farmer would be the sweetener in a swap that has MN receiving a top 100 C prospect, and at that point Idk if the deal makes sense for either side.
  8. KirbyDome89
    I couldn't say yes to that swap fast enough, which means it's probably not enough to swing a deal even if LA had interest in Farmer.
  9. KirbyDome89
    The Dobnak hype train started with the same "erratic," pitching schedule in 2020. How long before we stop blaming similar usage for his poor performances since that small sample his rookie year?
  10. KirbyDome89
    You labeled logic that defied statistical evidence as "wrong." I just pointed out that you're using similar logic to argue for the Pagan renaissance. How he's used, and subsequent damage caused to the team, or lack thereof, isn't the issue in question; it's whether or not he's actually able to be "fixed."
  11. KirbyDome89
    Right, which is to say that Pagan could turn things around based on these adjustments, or resolution to whatever outside causes you want to speculate on, despite his awful track record and age, correct? Again, "you never know," is being applied in the face of statistical unlikelihood in both cases. Every team has roles "set," entering the season, that doesn't really mean anything. Miranda played a majority of last year, he isn't a roster change, but if you want to talk about him at 3B specifically, his defensive fit certainly could be considered a question mark. Kirilloff's wrist isn't a question mark? Gallo isn't a question mark after his abysmal 2022 season? Who is your 2nd SP acquired? Taylor's bat isn't a question mark if he's getting extended playing time as Buxton insurance? You're going to mention all the injuries, but those aren't question marks this season!? Mahle, Ober, and Winder are health locks? Maeda and Alcala won't miss a beat post elbow procedures? Jorge Lopez's absolute meltdown in a Twins uniform was just a blip? Pagan has been beaten to death. An offense that was inconsistent or non existent at times, and lost one of its most reliable/best bats, will be better despite the only clear upgrade coming at C? I mean c'mon, these are just off the top of my head.
  12. KirbyDome89
    We do? Despite a nice 18 inning stretch to end 2021, he was borderline unusable for a large chunk of that season. We can cling to another short stretch of good performance in 2020 where his ERA greatly outperformed his FIP, but to date, his poor performances have countered the good in a limited number of career innings. He was a question mark coming into last season; that hasn't changed post elbow surgery.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Isn't "anything can happen," essentially the same logic you were criticizing? This team finished 78-84, good for 3rd place in the worst division in baseball, and they're running it back with mostly the same roster. There are plenty of questions.
  14. KirbyDome89
    To a point, and then that curve trends downward. Pagan is going to be 32 this season, and he's been abysmal for the last 3 seasons. I agree that the logic of throwing away early season games is "wrong," but expecting, or even hoping for, a vastly different outcome this year seems like a similarly "wrong," bet.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Pagan's time with TB wasn't a "breakout," it was an anomaly. Time to let that one go.... His BB rate during his "turnaround," moved up into May/June territory. Unless we're supposed to believe he'll hold opponents to a mid 500s OPS for the year, the sample in question is the same situation as those early season tightrope acts, i.e. a time bomb waiting to explode.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I think the final number was close enough where nearly every team would've had 4 starters hit that mark assuming an equal split. If Ober is that back end guy that you churn through, a la the bottom of the bullpen, that's fine. He's productive when healthy, he's cheap, and in theory there's always somebody to take his place in that role. 80 innings is roughly 3 months worth of starts and he's cleared that mark once in 4 professional seasons. The fact that there's no telling how, or when, those innings will be available causes the value to tumble further.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Fair enough, I'm not in a hurry to delete starting options. I don't think he'll ever be healthy enough to consider handing him a rotation spot, and for that same reason he can't really be relied on as true depth either. It's a weird spot.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Yep, I think the opening day start and overall lack of pitching in the organization raised expectations/hopes to a point where people are setting themselves up for disappointment. Ryan was talked about as a potential back end guy or bullpen piece at the time of the trade. Like you said, struggling against better teams is real, and that's ok, but he didn't show anything last year to suggest those results will dramatically change. If he pushes into that true 3ish range you're talking about (maybe this is all semantics) that's great.
  19. KirbyDome89
    Do you think he's ever going to be consistently healthy enough to give you even 120 innings?
  20. KirbyDome89
    I'm 100% onboard with churning through the bottom of the bullpen internally but you need a group in place that can hold water while you're shuffling. Duran is unquestionably reliable. We can probably include Jax and Thielbar on that list. Lopez, Pagan, and Alcala are all relatively major question marks and that's your middle tier. That leaves 2 spots (maybe 1 depending on what happens with the rotation) to sort through Sands, Megill, Henriquez, ect. Winder, or maybe even Balazovic transition and make an impact, but those won't be quick or easy decisions.
  21. KirbyDome89
    I'm not arguing that the SD version of Joe Ryan is who he is, but if we're going to start cherry picking entire games, or explaining away his worst starts as "well the Dodgers beat up on everybody," from a sample that's 27 games, are we not skewing perception as much, if not more, than if we put too much stock in a bad outing in SD? FWIW, his sample size vs. playoff teams last year was nearly identical to his KC/Detroit SS. Excluding the SD game, he finished with a 5 ERA and a slightly higher FIP against those teams, and that includes some pretty good games against Cleveland. Personally I think Ryan is a 4-5 guy unless he can consistently get guys out with something other than his FB. That's still a huge W for the Twins.
  22. KirbyDome89
    If you're subtracting the worst performances every pitcher is going to look better. If I flipped your logic, and started removing some of his best games against KC and Detroit, because they're two franchises masquerading as Major League teams, I doubt you'd be onboard with the similar approach to truncating the data set. It's no coincidence that 5 of his 6 worst starts came against playoff teams; that's the point being made, he struggled against good teams and feasted on some really bad lineups in his own division. His numbers against playoff teams were abysmal last year. How else to do end up with a mid 3 ERA when you threw 1/3 of your innings at a sub 1 clip? Being pulled early (before having to go through the order a third time) protected Ryan's numbers more than they hurt them. That shouldn't even be a debate. Talking about how extreme Ryan's splits are isn't taking away his good games.
  23. KirbyDome89
    What's sustainable about folding your cards in July? Sure, Ryan for Cruz is a W, no doubt, but it took a last place finish and overall miserable year to provide an opportunity for such a swap to take place. If MN is .500 and holding onto WC hopes Cruz stays put and walks at the end of the year. That's not a reliable approach. I get that nothing with prospects is written in stone, but Enlow and Sands have almost no shot at being a starting pitcher at the big league level. Balazovic needs a dramatic turnaround or he's likely out as a starter as well. Both Winder and Ober have bullpen written all over them due to varying degrees of health and performance concerns. Right now it's Varland and SWR. Prielipp maybe in a couple years if he's healthy/productive, but he has yet to throw a pitch as a professional. Raya is in A ball. Gray, Mahle and Maeda all exit after this season. Lopez follows them the next year. You've already stated that this FO doesn't want to invest years/$$ into SP, why are banking on Mahle being extended?
  24. KirbyDome89
    Ryan, SWR, Martin, and Duran came aboard midseason because the Twins were selling. That's not really a sustainable avenue of acquisition either. No, the farm isn't devoid of talent, but if we're talking about the "pitching pipeline," eh, it's not exactly encouraging. They're almost at a point where they'll have more rotation spots than arms in the next year or two, and that's before injury/ineffectiveness enter the conversation.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Odds that Kyle Farmer outperforms the combination of Marwin/Schoop/Arraez? I actually forgot about Vasquez, but take his career high OPS and stretch it across this entire season in MN, he's 250+ points shy of Garver. Jeffers is 100ish points below Castro in each of his full seasons. C is a bloodbath. Yeah I think the rotation is better as far as depth/upside goes. Gray/Mahle/Lopez can't match Berrios or Odorizzi as far as durability is concerned and Berrios is probably the best of the entire bunch, but if those three guys stay healthy and are productive Ryan + a warm body should be miles ahead of Gibson and Perez. Gray is good for 130ish innings and Mahle is probably about the same unless he's a beacon of health. That leaves roughly 100 innings that need to be covered (Berrios + Odorizzi) which you'd expect Lopez to hit, but he essentially was Dylan Bundy for 2/3 of last season, i.e. pretty damn meh, and he missed half of each of the two full seasons prior to that, so which Pablo Lopez are we getting?
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