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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Came here to say the same thing. The Twins tendered contracts to 32 year old Emilio Pagan and 36 year old Caleb Thielbar. That was it for bullpen additions. Moran and Sands are the only "young," arms trying to carve out a role, and they're both 26. This is more of a last gasp than a youthful audition for them. Winder probably fits into that group as well. Idk what to do with Henriquez; he's young, but it's not like he's someone you want in the bullpen at this point. Lopez at 27 is an improvement in every way over Archer at 33. Idk if people realize Bundy was only 29 last year. Gray is 33. Mahle will turn 29 by the end of the year. Ryan is the youngest SP entering the year and he'll be 27 in a couple months. Going with 35 year old Kenta Maeda over Ober kinda blows up the youth movement notion by itself, but Ober is 28 years old. Then, as you pointed out, 3/5 (Gray, Mahle, and Maeda) of the rotation are UFAs after this year, with Lopez following suit the year after. The article didn't really get into position players, but adding a 33 year old C, a 33 year old utility IFer, a 32 year old 4th OFer, and a 35 year old 1B/DH doesn't exactly scream youth either. Obviously health/production from Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff wipes out a lot of that, but at least for now, this team isn't betting heavily on youth.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Not at all.
  3. KirbyDome89
    It also strongly suggests Ober himself won't be making "a lot of starts," for the Twins.
  4. KirbyDome89
    There isn't any development left for Ober in AAA. It's not like he'll be sitting on ice in St. Paul either, he's going to be throwing innings, which history tells us are limited in his case. Yes, Sands and Ober play different positions, but they're linked as far as roster construction goes. I'd rather see the Twins try to max Ober's healthy innings than hide Cole Sands at the back end of a bullpen.
  5. KirbyDome89
    "And we know that over the course of the season, Ober will make a lot of starts for the Twins as well." We do?
  6. KirbyDome89
    Unless I haven't caught an update, it was still considered a high ankle sprain right? Those tend to linger, which is concerning, but yeah, I hope he's good to go for the rest of the season. Yep, can't get here fast enough.
  7. KirbyDome89
    3/4 of those career years prior to the last two seasons he had fewer than 100 PAs. His 2019 splits still wildly favor him against lefties but even that SS is half of his 2021 PAs. I still expect him to hit lefties well, but if we're talking about outliers, are we sure last season wasn't one?
  8. KirbyDome89
    Meta
  9. KirbyDome89
    Partially why I mentioned Gordon's ankle. Farmer killed lefties last year, his splits the previous season aren't nearly as extreme. I'm skeptical, but you never know. Me too, I'm on the Kirilloff hype train, full-bore, but I definitely think it's wait and see mode right now, which isn't anywhere close to being ready for opening day. I'm pretty sure there's a Hayes article in The Athletic from yesterday that casts doubt on Kirilloff's readiness. Again, it's wait and see.
  10. KirbyDome89
    Actually arguing that the season is over, or are we being hyperbolic?
  11. KirbyDome89
    If Gordon's ankle is good to go by opening day I'll feel ok, at least to start the season. If Solano and/or Farmer are getting starts at 2B for any extended amount of time I wouldn't consider 2B covered. Idk if Kirilloff is actually tracking to be starting at 1B on opening day either. Is anybody actually arguing that the season is over?
  12. KirbyDome89
    If Mahle is worth a QO he's almost certainly gone without an extension. I doubt Gray is trying to reset his market at 34, so if he's worth a QO he's also likely looking at multi year deals or an extension. Of the two I'd be more interested in extending Mahle, but I have serious doubts that this FO is interested in doing a 3-5 year extension at $20M+ per year. I can see them doing another two years with Gray, but again, that's a 34 year old who isn't exactly a workhorse so they could be ready to move on there as well. I have zero interest in retaining Maeda or Gallo.
  13. KirbyDome89
    The fact that he could very easily be in the starting lineup for 80-100ish games in CF seems to fly under the radar here.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Yeah, most guys pitch into their 40s, win multiple Cy Young awards in their mid-late 30s, and are essentially a lock for 30+ starts (your favorite stat!) every year. Definitely not an outlier. He hasn't done it once in a ST game, and there's doubt he'll be ready by opening day, but I guess that's just like, my opinion huh. Yep, I think turning to a guy that was replacement level (if even that) days into ST because your 1B isn't likely to be playing games until mid March at the earliest means the Twins were probably invested pretty heavily in Kirilloff. Crazy right? Unless you think the Twins won't need that 6th man, they're relying on a healthy Ober in either situation, and if he can't go the result is the same. "Who have already debuted," that's a cute spin. You mean the 31 career innings combined between Varland and SWR? 17 starts for Ober is essentially asking him to throw 90ish innings, and he's eclipsed that mark exactly one time in 5 professional seasons. That alone seems kinda crazy. Then SWR and Varland each need to contribute that many productive innings? Yeesh. We can have some more fun with numbers and use the median rather than the mean. 25 (Gray), 27 (Ryan), 24 (Mahle), 21 (Maeda - his average was 22 not 25), 21 (Lopez) for 118 starts; a whopping 8 more than last year with Paddack going down in his 5th start. I'm neutral on Varland and SWR. Worthy of a look isn't the same thing as being able to step in and consistently get ML hitters out.
  15. KirbyDome89
    Everything about Verlander, age, performance, health, recovery, ect. is extreme. Everything. Yay! Sure, we'll just disagree about whether a post camp signing of 35 year old Donovan Solano,who put up .5 fWAR last year, means the Twins weren't invested in Larnach or Kirilloff. Kirilloff isn't even swinging a bat right now is he? We're sure on Larnach though? The difference between Ober at 5 or 6 is negligible; this team didn't suddenly escape his injury risk. Ober being unable to go as the 6th man is no different than him starting the year as the 5 and going down.
  16. KirbyDome89
    No, my response was that Verlander was the most extreme example possible. It's like arguing that the Twins need to keep selecting pitchers in the Rule V draft because Johan was a stud. I'm asking for some ML action, but yeah, terribly unreasonable. So Larnach wasn't scheduled. Ok. Solano, Farmer, or Taylor, aren't pushing anybody down the depth chart. Who is getting bumped? Ober? He moves from 5-6, a spot that's guaranteed to see ML innings, and it's a massive question mark whether he'll be healthy enough to pitch when called upon - you know that. Who else? As far as in season decision making, I agree, but I've certainly listened to and/or read Twins media compliment this FO's ability to pivot when it comes to offseason targets.
  17. KirbyDome89
    What a dataset, 2 HOF'ers and a third on the fence. I'm dead. Yeah, just be Justin Verlander or a RP on track for the HOF. Hilarious. Mahle missed 3 starts in July alone. Yeah he had two normal starts in MN post deadline, and then he threw 2 innings apiece in his next two outings. So 5 actual starts between July and August, which is roughly one month of starts. He missed 2x the amount Polanco did, and he was shelved 3x during that span. Yep, I find that a bit more concerning, even with Polanco's setback in the minors. So the plan all along was to have Larnach in AAA and wait until camp broke to sign a replacement level player? Doubt it. This FO definitely never pivots right? I'm not complaining, I'm stating something, that in my eyes is obvious, this team is heavily reliant on better health. Am I a big fan of the Gallo or Solano signings? No. Does that matter at all in regard to my stance about health? Also no. I have no idea why yourself and others can't seem to separate those two things.
  18. KirbyDome89
    Am I the only one who's ignorant when it comes to the details of his health situation? Yeah, I guess I just want to see the guy who couldn't throw last year make it through a ML lineup a few times before I breathe a sigh of relief. Crazy right? I think a shoulder issue that sidelines you for an extended period of time, one where rest is the remedy, is cause for concern when we're talking about a 6 month season. I didn't realize that narrative was a synonym for recent. Different launching points doesn't mean I'm crafting some nefarious narrative. If Mahle makes it through this year unscathed then the shoulder concern is all but forgotten. This isn't an average situation. If you can find a dataset of 35 year olds coming back from TJ after not pitching in a ML game for 18 months I'm all ears I guess. He was pulled on the 17th because he was throwing 85 mph. Ditto for his September start. He missed half of July before being traded. He threw 12 actual innings for MN last year. I'm so over hearing about "my narrative," when you're claiming Mahle "missed September," or Solano & Gallo are "legit MLB players," at 1B. Actually, I said Polanco could go either way and that he wasn't on my radar - it's one page back I believe. Ahh I see, if Mahle misses extended time in year two (this year) he then qualifies as an injury concern similar to Larnach. Nothing arbitrary about that line. I'm fully aware. If the team was certain he wasn't going to make the opening day roster, i.e. he was "scheduled for AAA," I doubt they'd wait past the point where position players had reported to sign a 35 year old that posted .5 fWAR last year.
  19. KirbyDome89
    He (Solano) isn't who I was referring to.
  20. KirbyDome89
    It's not a complaint, it's a reality. Every year he misses significant time. It's a given at this point. I was in favor of the signing at the time; I'm still in favor of it. None of that has anything to do with wanting him traded. This isn't about depth, can we put that to rest? I don't expect the 4th or 5th OFer to step in and pick up his slack. Buxton is a gamble worth taking, but still a gamble. This sidebar arose from the argument that the Twins aren't betting on health; Buxton is a merely an example.
  21. KirbyDome89
    I'd sign him to the same deal right now. That doesn't mean he isn't a massive health risk. Acknowledging that equates with wanting him traded? Just stop.... And the Paddock trade + Bundy & Archer put them in that position. Are we only judging decisions based on intention now?
  22. KirbyDome89
    Unless he was throwing 5+ innings in game like conditions at Driveline, yeah, I'd call it wait and see since that's exactly what they opted for with the rest route a la Winder, who has been shelved 3 times while resting his own shoulder issue. I honestly can't believe yourself and others are acting like there was, or is, no concern about Mahle's shoulder this offseason. I didn't discredit the starts, I pointed out his health was an outlier and that he'd missed significant chunks in each of the previous two full seasons (so recently) but if it bothers you then just exclude Lopez from the convo. Yeah I don't doubt he threw as part of his rehab. I also know he wasn't pitching ML innings every 5 days either. Do we need to be pedantic about everything? He doesn't need to shred his elbow again to miss time. He's 35, coming back from injury, and he hasn't handled anything close to a ML workload in 1.5 years, but full sail ahead I guess. Polanco missed the month of September. Am I "all over the place," or is it your math? Larnach is a real injury concern but Mahle and Maeda aren't. I mean....ok. I'm enjoying the lecture on my "narrative," and scatterbrained argument though. The "injury plagued roster," argument works if, as you put it, the previous season was decimated by injuries. Solano signed 2 weeks ago, Idk why we're talking about guys being scheduled for AAA.
  23. KirbyDome89
    Tyler Mahle couldn't throw a baseball for 3 months due to a shoulder issue labeled fatigue and spent the offseason in wait and see mode (hello Josh Winder) but "injuries happen to every team." A 35 year old post TJ, who hasn't thrown in 18 months isn't a health concern (only a performance concern - hey lets argue semantics!) because "TJ is normal." I mentioned overgeneralization right? My stance on the depth is crystal. An injury plagued roster is suddenly "my narrative?" D'okay. Is this the part where I need to point out the difference between a minimal lengh IL stint and missing 3 months? I didn't bring Polanco into the conversation. I literally said he wasn't even on my radar, but please, tell me more about my confirmation bias and "narrative." Larnach was scheduled to start the year in AAA? Solano and Gallo combined for 1.1 fWAR last year, and if Gallo is playing 1B any defensive value he might have vanishes.
  24. KirbyDome89
    Are the Twins leaning hard into a health reversal? Those claiming that they aren't, or that "every team," does the same thing, are the same ones pointing at all the injuries last year. So which is it? Does this team need a significant health resurgence, or is every team "decimated," by the end of the season? Are starts the best indicator of health? Also, how strongly do those thresholds correlate with health vs. performance or other factors? If Mahle misses the entire 2nd half again it's "not too crazy?" Maeda is mysteriously missing from this conversation. Ober (maybe Winder who also has massive injury concerns) is their only depth piece with any real ML experience and he's a lock to miss significant time. Last year was the first time Lopez has surpassed your 26 starts mark; each of his previous 2 full seasons were cut short by injury. You honestly don't think the rotation as a whole need to be drastically healthier? I'm more concerned overall with the pitching, but there's no denying the CF situation is unique to the Twins. They essentially need a 5th OFer because the 4th is going to spend 2/3 of the season in CF. Polanco could go either way; I can see him playing 150 games, and I can also see him beginning to arrive at that point where the grind starts to take its toll, either way he wasn't on my radar. The two (health and performance) are inextricably linked for a lot of these guys. Eh, maybe I'm still drinking the Kirilloff kool-aid, but the prospect of Solano, Farmer, and/or Taylor getting regular playing time because he and Larnach aren't healthy enough to start the season is a downgrade in my eyes so I'd stop short of saying the team wasn't investing in that duo.
  25. KirbyDome89
    Again, that's a situation every team in baseball faces?
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