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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. The Twins had a choice with Santana. They could have chosen to have Santana play out his contract and leave as a free agent and receiving a draft pick in the compensation round. This would have been the best option considering they were in the playoffs the following season and the poor return of players received from the Mets. They have the same choice with Berrios. They can trade him now for whatever they can get or keep him for the 2022 season. An uncertainty is over the CBA and whether there will be free agent based draft compensation.
  2. I generally agree with these numbers and that 15 million is in the ballpark for the guaranteed value. I arrived at 15 million by taking Mike Trout's salary and then prorating by the percentage of games played. Mike Trout has appeared in 95% of the Angel's games over his career. Buxton's availability is around 40%. I would add other performance benefits to the contract, e.g,, 10 million if he wins MVP, 5 million for 2nd place, etc. A value that would make his salary similar to Mike Trout's. Also, we don't really know where Byron Buxton wants to play. He is from Georgia. Maybe he would accept a package from the Braves that he would not accept from the Twins. Free agency is a players opportunity to choose their employer. An opportunity that most of us could take every day.
  3. I wish Nelson Cruz the best in pursuing a WS ring with the Rays. I will be rooting for the Rays for the remainder of the year.
  4. An alternative way of looking at the question is have the Twins gotten value for the glut of outfielders they have in their system. The answer is clearly no. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson could be added to this conversation as well although I don’t know if either would have resigned and Lynn had the worst season of his career with the Twins. The discussion on which players to protect has to be viewed in the context of whether or not a team is a contender. When not contending, Baddoo would have been kept over Cave. Hindsight is a wonderful lens into the world. Was Baddoo available to be put on the alternative site in 2020. That was their opportunity to evaluate Baddoo’s readiness. Aaron Whitefield was on the taxi squad. Celestino has been on 40 man roster for two years. But he looks way overmatched. What was the criteria for keeping Celestino over Baddoo. Baddoo is a currently a slightly below average defender and maybe doesn’t profile as a true center fielder.
  5. I don’t think spending money is really the issue. Some players don’t want to come here (Marcus Semien). They have gotten poor performance from some they did pay (Donaldson, Sano, Kepler, Colome).
  6. Entering the season the Twins were in need of a backup outfielder who could play a serviceable CF because of Buxton’s injury history. The Twins had Cave, Kepler, Celestino, Wade, and Baddoo. Wade was traded, Baddoo lost to rule 5, both Cave and Kepler were hurt, Celestino look very unprepared when given the opportunity. Both Wade and Baddoo have outplayed the others on this list. Although injuries to both Kepler and Cave could not have been predicted, they both struggled in 2020. One of Wade or Baddoo should have been retained. The Twins don’t have the luxury of making to many mistakes in personnel decisions. I get that the Twins have too many outfielders, especially if you include Rooker, Lewis, and Arraez. Maybe the best option would have been to sign a Jarrod Dyson type of player to have an a legit CF to backup Buxton. Fortunately for the Twins, Gordon looks to be decent CFer (albeit with a below average arm).
  7. “All three relievers have struggled mightily this year, but specifically using Dobnak and Shoemakers as relievers and leaving them out there when they were clearly struggling to get outs was interesting. “ Because the bullpen is burned up. The only way the Twins will have a respectable record at seasons ends is if every pitcher starts contributing. Yes, that means when a pitcher is expected to throw 2 or 3 innings he needs to throw 2 or 3 innings even if the results aren’t there.
  8. I am curious about the decision to put Gordon in CF over Gilberto Celestino. Not that I am unhappy about it and hope that Gordon can learn how to play the OF like Jarrod Dyson. But with Gordon having no OF experience it seems the safe choice would have Larnach with a strong arm in RF, Gordon in LF and keeping Celestino in CF.
  9. They used the slot money they saved by taking Lewis, to sign Blayne Enlow. Considering the Twins stretch of bad luck/poor decisions in drafting pitchers in the first round, selecting Lewis seemed reasonable. My concerns would be on reports of poor swing mechanics that aren’t being corrected. (Like another top pick who plays CF) I also agree with @Danchat above that the continued selection of bat first high strikeout prone hitters could use an adjustment either by drafting more pitchers or players with defensive value https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-twins-prospect-royce-lewis-has-a-cacophonous-swing-and-a-sky-high-ceiling/
  10. He is on to something that doesn’t seem to be emphasized in today’s pitchers. He must have close to a 45 mph speed differential between his fastball and off speed pitch. That difference can be effectively utilized to keep hitters off balance and get outs. In his younger years Zach Greinke had about a 25 mph difference between his fastball and curveball, which at that time was the largest differential in the MLB.
  11. Alex Colome deserves to be on the list as he is single handedly responsible for 4 losses. He was also the Twins big bullpen acquisition for the winter. In addition to many of the names mentioned above, I would have Ryan Jeffers on this list. He went from being in the pre-season RoY discussion to playing himself off the roster with a nearly 50% K rate. The consequences are that we have lost several games with passed balls or WP with Garver that a decent defensive catcher would have corralled. It is really approaching total system failure. The number of regular starters and pitchers who are meeting expectations are rather low
  12. It looks like the euphoria is over. Against KC, today 3K, 7 LOB. A batting average that is nearing the O’s Chris Davis recent years of futility. It is really frustrating to see Sano flailing at sliders low and outside.
  13. Garlick was a defensive substitution in the bottom of the 7th after Kepler reinjured this hamstring. To describe him as a pinch hitter in the 10th is not the most accurate description.
  14. I think so. The Twins were able to convince the umpire(s) to give Jorge Alcala extra warm-up time despite LaRussa's disagreement. Therefore assume that Maeda is at least somewhat hurt. (There are likely consequences for lying to umpires under these circumstances as well although I do not know what they would be).
  15. Eris

    On Narrative

    This team was built / trained / coached to hit home runs. In 2019 they led the league in home runs and (I think) percentage of runs scored by home runs. In addition to bad luck, the Twins are very poor in situational hitting. This shows by horrible results with runners in scoring position. How many times do the Twins have a runner on second with no one out and fail to score. This aspect of their game is depressing.
  16. It was mentioned on the broadcast today that Sano is working on changing his swing. Can anyone describe the mechanical changes.
  17. I would have Alex Kirilloff as the Twins player with highest trade value. Since coming up, and before his injury, all he did was smash the ball.
  18. From Fangraphs https://blogs.fangraphs.com/willians-astudillo-and-hanser-alberto-are-here-to-swing-the-bat/
  19. The Twins need more than one long Bullpen arm. Right now they have none with both Smeltzer and Dobnak optioned. The two best options available without a trade are Balazovic and Duran. That is what pushing the panic button will look like. Shoemaker also needs to be DFA as ineffective starting pitching is also part of the problem. It was painful to listen to the game with Waddel pitching in the 10th knowing he had been hammered the night before. Hope and praying is never a good option. Unfortunately that is where we are today.
  20. Fangraphs has a write up on Maeda https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kenta-maeda-has-made-a-lot-of-mistakes/
  21. I am confused about Riddle and Lin being DFA. In a previous thread on players being called up as part of COVID IL, it was mentioned that non 40 man roster players did not have to clear waivers to be reassigned to the minors. If this is the case, it would make DFA unnecessary if the Twins want to keep them.
  22. Although it is early in the season, only Ehire Adrianza is having a season that suggests maybe the Twins should have brought him back. Data is from MLB.com Eddie Rosario .212/.264/.628 Ehire Adrianza .286/.303/.946 Marwin Gonzalez .222/.358/.692
  23. I haven’t seen it mentioned on this thread but Nick Gordon has been dealing with gastrointestinal issues for awhile. I believe this contributes to his inability to put on weight and his tendency for late in the season fading performance. Also likely explains why COVID-19 sidelined him most of last year as one of the symptoms is of Covid is gut inflammation. I can’t remember his medical condition but it may be Crohn’s disease. I am happy for Nick Gordon that he got the call and hope he does well. https://www.bemidjipioneer.com/sports/baseball/6925813-After-more-health-issues-Twins-prospect-Nick-Gordon-‘thankful’-to-be-back-on-field
  24. I have always thought it would be better to have relief pitchers throw more than one inning in exchange for more rest. I have not seen any data. It just doesn’t seem to make sense to have someone throw 10-12 pitches in one inning and then run someone else out for the next inning. Although getting lose in the bullpen is not high leverage it has to contribute to some wear and tear on the arm. A counter argument would be that having relief pitchers throw only one inning allows for better match-ups and makes them available for the following day if needed.
  25. Although Luis Arraez’s defense at 2B was atrocious in 2019 (4th worst) he improved substantially in 2020 and was close to being an average 2B. Data is from def Fangraphs. Ozzie Albies had a freak elbow injury that likely affected his value and possibly his insurability. Before the injury he was a SS. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.mlb.com/amp/news/braves-prospect-ozzie-albies-injures-elbow-c200237922.html
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