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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    MLB defines what is in/out of market and their definition may surprise you. just for curiosity I looked for a region in the continental USA far far away from a team and plugged the zip code into MLB website. Someone in Raymond Montana is considered part of the home market of the Seattle Mariners. It is about a 16 hour drive from Raymond to Seattle. https://www.mlb.com/live-stream-games
  2. Eris
    Is there anything in the arrangement that prevents Bally from selling streaming rights to Amazon.
  3. Eris
    There is a stat (kind of) that measures outcomes vs run expectancy for the 24 possible scenarios. It is RE24. In Fangraphs it is under the win probability stats. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&startdate=2023-10-03&enddate=2023-11-01&sortcol=4&sortdir=default&postseason=D
  4. Eris
    For me the frustrating part of the Twins season was the lack of situational hitting. Against the Astros in the playoffs how many at bats did the Twins have with the bases loaded and failed to score. It was way too many. Sometimes a single is all that separates a W from an L.
  5. Eris
    In 2022, Hall was MLBs 7th ranked LHP prospect, right after MacKenzie Gore https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/lhp/
  6. Eris
    The average MLB career is 5.6 years (I could not find the median). It makes sense for young players to secure their financial future. The value of Polanco’s contract can’t be taken in isolation. They also gave a similar contract to Kepler (which has turned out okay) and to Sano (who had a disappointing career).
  7. Eris
    The travel schedule can be brutal. Being functional at high level after arriving at your hotel early in the morning can be difficult. The older one is, the harder this becomes.
  8. Eris
    Lots of comparisons to Spencer Steer. At A+ Steer was the better hitter. BB% 16 vs 10, OPS 915 vs 860, WRC+ 150 vs 140. Data is from Fangraphs.
  9. Eris
    Thank you. 4 players show up on both your offense and defense lists. Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Martin.
  10. Eris
    Rather disappointing trade. Won’t really improve the team this year and we are not saving $$$. Might improve the team 2 or 3 years from now and we have a RH hitting outfielder to go with our excess of LH hitting outfielders.
  11. Eris
    I have downloaded the 2023 MLB data from Fangraphs and compared a number of traditional parameters to RE24 (run expectancy of 24 possible batting scenarios). As RE24 is a cumulative stat, I have adjusted RE24 to 100 PA. The minimum PA was 200. There were 362 batters that had >= 200 PA. RE24 is a good metric to use as takes into consideration the in-game situation of an at bat comparing the outcome to the run expectancy. I treated the data with simple linear regression. The best correlation was with OPS. R^2 = 0.78 (i.e., 78% of the RE24 can be predicted from OPS. For K%, R^2 = 0.0074 with a negative slope, i.e., strikeouts don't matter as infuriating as I find that stat, it seems to be true. Also, OBP is as important as SLG. Luis Arraez does quite well by this metric, being in the top 20 of MLB hitters. From a Twins perspective, Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner had the best outcomes. Christian Vasquez and Carlos Correa had the worst outcomes. The other parameters (R^2 in parenthesis) ISO (0.42) HR (0.39) BABIP (0.17) BB% (0.19) OPS (0.78) OBP (0.67) SLG (0.64) K% (0.0074)
  12. Eris
    That Joey Gallo absolutely stunk hitting 0.177 while producing an above average OPS indicates that OPS is not a good metric to evaluate performance. Gallo and Sano are in the prime of their careers (age wise) if they were even average MLB players they would have multi year contracts in the 10-15 million range or more. I don’t think that swinging for the fence on every pitch has served these players well over the long term. Edited to add: Among the top 30 players by fWAR in the MLB last year, The mean K% was 19.6 with a Median of 18.8. On this list, only James Outman had >30 K%. It seems clear to me that the best players don't strike out alot. Is there value in coaching a player to hit 20 HR instead of 10 HR, maybe. But unlikely if it means their K% increases from 25% to 35%. David
  13. Eris
    Thank you, Nick for the wonderful article. I think Joe Mauer raised the awareness of the long term effects of concussions on hitting performance. I am happy the voters were willing to overlook his shortened career and recognize Joe Mauer for the great player that he was.
  14. Eris
    Other things to do Revolutionary War. Lake George and Ft. Ticonderoga and other battlefields are 2-3 hours from Cooperstown. The Adirondack Park/Mountains are in the NE of New York. The Adirondack Park is one of the largest in the US with lots of outdoor activities.
  15. Eris
    Congratulations to Joe Mauer and his family. We were very blessed to have been able to watch him play for so many years.
  16. Eris
    Kepler is the more consistent player. Excluding 2020, Kepler has never had a year <2 fWAR. Of course Kepler hasn’t had a a 7 WAR season either. Bellinger has a lot more upside than Kepler but he may have more downside which is why it is difficult to assess Bellinger’s long term contract value. If the Twins could sign Bellinger to an incentive contract similar to Buxton’s 15 million base I think this would be a good move for the Twins. I doubt that this will happen. Also agree with many of the TD contributors that pitching is more important. From Fangraphs, Bellinger has had 4 years >3.5 WAR and 3 years < 2 WAR.
  17. Eris
    I don’t something here. The Twins original contract with Fox Sports (which Bally inherited/bought when Fox Sports sold the rights to Sinclair) ended at the end of 2023. The Twins could sell their broadcast rights to entity they can reach an agreement with). Why are they being forced to Bally (or when was the contract extended). What am I missing. With regards to cost to the users, I think streaming will be more expensive than cable, as the cost for streaming will be paid directly by the user. With cable, the services were bundled which meant that individual users did not pay the true cost of a service. Streaming services could bundle as well to spread costs but then eventually they will run in to the same dynamic as cable companies—the cost of bundled services will exceed what average user is willing to pay and they stop subscribing to the services.
  18. Eris
    A stalled market is what happens when the price of obtaining pitching becomes insanely expensive. At some point teams can’t justify the cost either in terms of $$ or trade capital.
  19. Eris
    I could get behind signing Bellinger to a 1 year deal. Certainly the upside is a lot more than Joey Gallo. I agree with @Rik19753that pitching is more needed. Also someone who has had 1 good year in the last 4 is not going to get a long term deal at $25m/year. During 2020-2022 Bellinger put up 2.2 WAR. He was hurt in 2021 but played 144 games in 2022. To give you an idea of just how bad of a performance those numbers represent, Willi Castro put up 1.8 WAR over the same period before being released by one of the worst teams in the league.
  20. Eris
    I think in order for the Twins to reasonably successful long term they need to be more like the Rays and less like the big market teams. The Twins have more than a third of the payroll in Correa and Buxton. Signing another player to a 20-25+ million long term contract means they lose payroll flexibility for years to come. Money that will potentially be needed to pay some of the rising stars.
  21. Eris
    I think broadcasters were the drivers of the bundled cable packages which has driven the cost of premium packages mostly around sports. The goal was to socialize the cost of sports programming over as large of a cable population as possible. Customers who wanted to watch the Twins also needed to pay for ESPN, Fox Sports, etc. This led to exorbitant $100+/month cable bills which ushered in the current era of cable cutting. I believe the capability has existed for local cable companies to “stream” the Twins to only the customers who wanted this. I don’t know of cable markets where that has happened. In New York some years ago, the Yankee network was very opposed to this idea when our local cable company offered that as a solution to a cost dispute.
  22. Eris
    I am somewhat confused by the whole process. According to the article, Amazon’s original agreement with Diamond was for streaming 11 teams. But MLB mixed that. Presumably this is because MLB thinks they can make more money streaming the other 6. Doesn’t then Amazon’s streaming service compete with MLBs At Bat. I live in NJ and being able to watch the Twins on Amazon reduces my willingness to pay for At Bat (unless Amazon’s streaming rights are restricted to a specific geographic region)
  23. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ works out to 20 million per team.
  24. Eris
    https://nypost.com/2024/01/17/business/amazon-poised-to-save-bankrupt-diamond-sports-with-100m-deal-to-stream-five-mlb-teams-sources/ this works out to 20 million per team.
  25. Eris
    How Ryan Jeffers becomes a top 10 ranked catcher is if the 2023 version of Jeffers shows up for the next 4 or 5 years. If the 2021 and 2022 version appears he is not a top 10 catcher.
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