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chpettit19

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Everything posted by chpettit19

  1. chpettit19
    Why do the Twins only need 3 starters for the playoffs? And what if 1 of those starters gets hurt between now and October? I'm not suggesting they go all in for this season or anything, and I've seen a few people suggest only needing 3 starters, but, unless you're running a bullpen day in any 4+ game series you need at least 4 starters for the playoffs. And the idea that the Guardians traded Civale so we can trade 40% of our rotation, plus (maybe) Polanco (I'm down with trading Kep), and still maintain our massive 1 game lead seems like a huge ask. I don't think Cleveland is a seller. I think they'll do like they always do and both buy and sell. They're absolutely not "conceding" the division to a 1 game over .500 Twins team. The Twins have real work to do to make the playoffs this year. Not suggesting they mortgage the future, but nobody suggested in this article is going to have a huge cost attached to them.
  2. chpettit19
    Yeah, I have no idea how teams view Wallner. But I think he's the best mix of a team maybe seeing him as a ready made MLB slugger they value, while also being a bit expendable by the Twins. If it were multiple big league pieces who've been around all year I'd be more worried. Julien and Lewis have passed Polanco while he's been hurt (or at least they have for me, and I love Polo) with Lee having really found his footing in AA. If a team like Seattle views him as a piece that can help in their "win now" window of the next few years I'd be willing to move him with a Wallner type (would prefer to move Larnach, but don't think he's worth much anymore) if it gets me one of those arms. Rodriguez is a tough call for me because his upside is out of this world, but I'm not sure he'll ever make enough contact to reach it. I'm an "upside" guy because I believe you need stars to win, so if my player dev guys are telling me Rodriguez can be a star if he can be slightly more aggressive early in counts (just a possible answer to his K problem) I'm not trading him. If it's a bigger fix that needs to happen, but another team views him as an elite prospect then I'd be willing to move him. Twins have painted themselves into a less than ideal corner. Will be interesting to see how the next 26ish hours goes. Edited to add: I was just on The Athletic and saw Jim Bowden suggesting a Jonathan India for Bryce Miller straight up trade. Wallner is younger than India, with more control left, but clearly less track record. But if that deal is realistic (Bowden is a former GM, but has some pretty out there trade ideas sometimes), and the Mariners view Wallner as being able to maintain anything near his AAA numbers I'd think Wallner and Polanco together would get them pretty close to being able to pick which of their young arms they want.
  3. chpettit19
    I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see what else they'd want me to add. Getting one of their young arms would be huge for this year, and moving forward. If you have 4 rotation spots locked up for the next half decade basically makes it a whole lot easier to focus on the rest of your club. I'd guess the Twins don't have the fire power to pull this off, but I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see if there's something there.
  4. chpettit19
    I don't expect this to happen, but this is the strategy that makes the most sense to me. I actually see the bulk of Lewis' career being in the OF. I'd bet they don't put him out there this year, though. Even if I would.
  5. chpettit19
    I haven't seen anything on him lately, but we're coming up on a year since his surgery so I'd hope they're planning to get him some innings. An AFL stint would make sense to me to get him a few innings to knock the rust off a little and get the feeling of being on a mound back before spring training next year.
  6. chpettit19
    I honestly don't know what MN's view of Wallner is. It's entirely possible they don't think he's that good, and that's why they haven't cleared a spot for him more aggressively, but they're also really, really slow to make in season adjustments/dump vets so I don't know if this is just a situation where they refused to move on from Gallo/Kepler and give him a spot even if they believe he can somewhat maintain his AAA numbers in the bigs. He's had 2 pretty elite years in the high minors back to back now so it's entirely possible other teams see a plug and play masher. I don't think they'd do a Wallner and Polo for Kirby, Miller, or Gilbert, straight up deal, but is it close enough to start a real convo? Polo is a massive upgrade over, and younger than, Kolton Wong, and has 2 more years of control left. I'd think if you called them and told them you'd start with those 2 they'd at least talk with you. I absolutely don't think the Twins get any of their pitchers, but I think it's worth a call to see if Seattle says "add Brooks Lee" or "add Noah Miller."
  7. chpettit19
    You said the concentration of performance doesn't matter. Why should it matter for a 30 year old instead of a 28 year old? I feel like you're intentionally ignoring any context whatsoever to try to force Rooker into a narrative that he doesn't fit in. No. I will not take away the circumstances. Just like you normally wouldn't either. Not sure why you even chose Rooker in the first place. Context matters. I will not be impressed by Larnach going ballistic for a month and spending the rest of the season being a 60 OPS+ guy. Just like I wasn't impressed by Sano doing it. Or Kepler doing it to a lesser degree right now. The season is 6+ months long. Being out of this world good for the first and terrible for the next 5 isn't impressive. If there's "any number of" players who break out in their late 20s why didn't you use one of them that actually fit your narrative instead of a guy who's going to get non-tendered again at the end of the year by an all time bad team? Larnach could be one of those guys. And I'm sure other teams would like to get him in their clubhouse to see if they can unlock what needs unlocking. But if all they get is a 1 month surface of the sun hot stretch and a bunch of unplayable months they won't go around pointing to him as some great success story. Rooker is a bad example for what you're trying to say.
  8. chpettit19
    LaMonte Wade is a good example. My point is that Brent Rooker doesn't illustrate your point. His monthly splits are 100% relevant if your point is that he's a late bloomer that we should be happy having someone like Larnach turn into. We shouldn't be happy with 1 Judge-esque month. Brent Rooker wouldn't be on a contending team's roster at this point. He'd already be back in AAA. He hasn't "found his stride" or "broken out" or any of those other catch phrases. He's been well below an average hitter for 3 months. Where that production is concentrated absolutely matters. He's had an entire career of being an unplayable major leaguer, but you want us to be impressed that he had 1 completely and totally unsustainable month to start the year? Not buying that for a second. I agree Larnach isn't completely finished, but Brent Rooker is a bad example to use. A guy who wouldn't make a playoff roster isn't an impressive comp. Edited to add: Joey Gallo had 1.063 OPS in March/April. He's gone .654, .674, .573 since. Should we not care about where his production was concentrated because he's been an overall average hitter?
  9. chpettit19
    Yes to trading any of the lefty OF bats. No to Raya for Hader. *Unless you're actually going to extend Hader before the end of the season. No to clearing way for Keuchel. I don't care if Keuchel has a 0.00 ERA in AAA, he's not worth doing anything to clear a spot for. Trade him if you can get a rookie ball flier for him. Definitely a no to trading Raya for Hader and turning around and putting Keuchel in the rotation. If you're going to go all in on pitching (which trading Raya for Hader is doing) you don't give Dallas Keuchel a spot in your rotation because of a handful of AAA starts. If you get Hader you hope for a healthy rotation in the playoffs that allows you to move 1 of the 5 guys to the pen and you try to pitch your way as deep as you can with Hader and Duran shutting down the end of every game and starter X, Jax, Thielbar, Floro, and Stewart matching up to dominate the 6th and 7th as needed.
  10. chpettit19
    I'd move Larnach, too, in the right deal. I don't know that I love the idea of cycling through players, though. Depends exactly what you mean by that. But you need to give guys chance to acclimate and make adjustments before cycling through another guy. My point in that post was simply that pointing at Rooker as some late bloomer that we should hope Larnach becomes is ignoring literally all but 1 month of his career. I'd trade any, and all, of their lefty cOF bats for the right package. Wallner, Larnach, Kepler, Gallo, Gordon would all be on the block for me. Only question is which moves help the team best overall.
  11. chpettit19
    They have already said they're open to trading one of those arms if it brings back a young, MLB ready, controllable bat of a certain level. The likelihood of them finding the right deal is small, but they've already openly spoken about being willing to trade from their pitching surplus to fill in their need on offense.
  12. chpettit19
    Come on, Nick. Rooker hit 9 HRs in March/April. He's hit 7 since. OPS of .616 in May. .620 in June. Slugged .327 and .353 in those months. Up to .757 OPS in July, but that's only been 13 games for him. He's only had a month long OPS over .700 while playing at least 20 games in that month twice in his career. April this year, and a .740 OPS in September 2021. His 1.245 OPS in April is an extreme outlier. Brent Rooker is not good, and nobody should be moved by Larnach doing what Rooker is doing this year.
  13. chpettit19
    Wallner and Polanco would be guys I'd be willing to part with for one of the Seattle arms. I'd guess they'd want some other pieces added, but I'd see if I can build a package around those 2 for one of their arms. I think it'd really come down to what Seattle thinks of Wallner. He's a young, controllable bat like they want, but is he a good enough bat to trump other offers they may get?
  14. chpettit19
    For 2 months of Hader?! I don't see it.
  15. chpettit19
    I wouldn't do that at all. Larnach and a rookie ball flier. Hader is better than Robertson, but he's still a rental reliever. Robertson just got 2 rookie ball prospects as a return. Larnach alone should really be enough, but if they demand someone else I'm not giving up anyone above Low A ball, and none of my highest ceiling guys down there either.
  16. chpettit19
    San Diego is another interesting possibility for sure. I don't think they're going to sell, though. Too much invested to do anything drastic. I don't expect the Twins to make any sort of big splashes, but I'd check on those Seattle arms and see if there's something that can get done there, though. I don't expect it, but my "perfect deadline" scenario for the Twins would be to bring in one of those top 3 Seattle arms while moving Gray for an MLB ready righty OF bat while moving any of the lefty OF bats we have in the process. I'd keep Lewis over Wallner 100 out of 100 times. I don't think either Wallner or Julien will ever become average defensively, and I think Wallner's Ks will be too much for him to be a special bat over the long haul. I do think Julien can be a top of the order bat for years, though. Lewis has way more upside than Wallner, and his injuries are the only concern I have about him as a baseball player. I'm not trading Lewis for anything (within reason) and taking my chances that he stays healthy. His talent is way too high, and I'd keep him through his arb years no matter what.
  17. chpettit19
    How well is Wallner regarded in Seattle? Is there a package to be built around him that brings back one of their young arms? Seattle has arms to move in return for a bat, but they'll want a controllable bat since their arms are controllable for years still. Can a package built around Wallner, and Polanco maybe, bring back Gilbert, Kirby, or Miller? I'd certainly be calling Seattle. I'd guess we can't meet their asking price, but it's worth a call.
  18. chpettit19
    Really hoping to see Canterino moved to the pen, and hope that gives him a near immediate MLB shot once he gets his footing under him. Prielipp is just so hard to judge now. Loved the pick, but didn't expect another elbow surgery after 2 appearances. He's a long ways away at this point. Hoping Canterino can be the next Duran, though (with less octane, obviously), and just come up and dominate out of the pen.
  19. chpettit19
    I've been a big Larnach fan since he was drafted. I liked the pick, and thought he had a real chance at being a heart of the order hitter for the Twins. I'm not such a believer anymore. He simply can't hit offspeed pitches, and expecting that switch to flip is every bit as risky as trading him now for a reasonable package. I have no idea how the rest of the league views him. I don't know what kind of trade he could be a part of. I love the idea of trading him for Hader (but not adding a AAA/MLB pitcher with him, holy smokes is that an overpay for a rental reliever) if the Twins are going to change their ways and pay a reliever. I love the idea of a Hader/Duran paring at the end of the bullpen. Even if they can't extend Hader I'd probably trade Larnach for Hader just for this playoff push as a Hader/Duran combo turns every playoff game into a 7 inning game for the other offense, and I'll take my chances with that to win a series or 2, which I think has it's own value for this organization. Gallo going in some way, shape, or form would be my first move (liked taking that risk, started hot, unplayable now), and I'd also be listening on Kepler and Wallner to see what move makes the most sense to improve the organization overall. But they have to do something with this mass of interchangeable, not good enough (yet maybe?) lefty cOF players. I expect Wallner to go back to AAA today for Polanco, and that's as clear of a sign as any that they need to move on from a guy or 2 in this jumbled mess.
  20. chpettit19
    Sam Hilliard, Brent Rooker (we drafted him twice), Matt Wallner (also drafted him twice), Max Meyer, Patrick Bailey, Drew Gilbert were late round picks by the Twins recently that they didn't sign who have had some amount of MLB success, or were top picks later (Gilbert).
  21. chpettit19
    Boras is always going to try to get his client the most money. He's always going to tell them they have to go into the overage. He tells them they need to raise their major league budget when they're negotiating contracts for major leaguers. The Twins can still simply say "no." They don't go to him and say "hey, we're going into the overage this year, are you ok with us giving that to the 20th round pick we made?" They still go to Boras and say "we have 7.14 mil for Jenkins, does he want it or is he going to UNC?" Doing something once, or even frequently, doesn't mean they need to do it every single year. Boras, or any agent, can try to get them to, that's their job. And it's the Twins FO jobs to make things work within their budget/plan for that particular year. Shying away from spending into the overage ever because big bad Boras is going to make them do it all the time doesn't make a lot of sense to me. He didn't make them pay 300 mil for Correa even though he tried to. If the FO isn't good enough at negotiating contracts to be able to spend into the overage when they want, but not when they don't, they shouldn't be running a major league organization.
  22. chpettit19
    If I actually believed all of their "saved" money was going back into the team I'd buy it as maybe making sense to NEVER go over. But I don't believe that at all. And I don't think NEVER going over is the right strategy. Always going over probably isn't either. But there's very rarely a time when completely refusing to use any avenue of team building is a good strategy. I don't buy the "well if they did it once Boras would've made them pay more" argument either. If they can't handle negotiating rookie deals because they used the overage here and there over 11 years they're probably not the people you want negotiating contracts anyways. Boras saying "hey, you went over in 2017 so we're not signing unless you do again this year" is pretty easily responded to with "we're not willing, or able, to go over this year so either he signs for this or he can take his chances in college for 3 years and hope he comes out of this with an extra mil in 3 years." Which is probably pretty close to the convo they had anyways. Refusing to EVER use the overage doesn't make sense to me. And I'm betting that nearly 900K isn't all going straight back into the team. *I made never/ever in all caps because I think that's the key word in all of this
  23. chpettit19
    I mostly agree. And said as much in one of the other posts. That comment was simply responding to the idea of giving up Larnach at all for Hader. Hader is a rental so I'm not sure he should cost much more than Larnach, but I'm sure they'd ask for a lower level prospect as well.
  24. chpettit19
    Lane Thomas would be a really nice piece to add, but if he's going to cost in accordance with his current production instead of his previous, and likely more realistic performance, I'm not sure I'd be willing to make that deal. Harvey and Finnegan are ok relievers, but nothing I'd be willing to give up much of anything for. Certainly worth talking with the Nats, but not sure I'm willing to give up much at all for the pieces they have available.
  25. chpettit19
    They should. And they can afford it.
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