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gunnarthor

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Everything posted by gunnarthor

  1. gunnarthor
    There's not a lot of reason to expect success next season without the Pohlads opening the checkbook and us signing several real starters. And this FO has utterly failed to do what they were hired to do - mimic the 2000s Twins success. So, not sure why we need another season to wait on what is clear - they aren't capable. We need to move on.
  2. gunnarthor
    Anyone watch the Gophers? Other than Penn St, all the other games are winnable from here on out. Really exciting season.
  3. gunnarthor
    Anyone watch the reboot of Quantum Leap instead of the second half of the Vikings disaster? I really enjoyed it. Made my kids watch it with me. Good times.
  4. gunnarthor
    Looking at my posts, I'm a bit concerned that they are too negative. I would be very, very happy to be wrong on Ryan. He seems like a good guy, works hard, has stayed healthy. He's easy to root for and I hope to eat crow when he's an all-star next year.
  5. gunnarthor
    No. Sorry, but no. There's too much kool-aid going around TD on our pitching. It's a bad, bad staff. As a staff, both starters and relievers are in the bottom third in baseball. Ryan is a back of the rotation pitcher. While he's a rookie, he's already 26 years old. He' not going to improve much more. He's made 30 ML starts so we have a decent idea of what he is over a full season - 30 starts, 160-170 innings ERA+ around 100, 2 WAR. That's not bad but it's a back-end arm but not what a playoff team wants to throw out in a make or break game. He's not top 50 in any stat right now. Ober hopes to be this good. And the rest of the pipeline looks to be more of this. I like healthy Mahle and Gray. Both are in the 2/3 range although Gray will be 33 next year so that's a problem. But it would be silly to expect Gray to better than he was this year and Mahle is a big question mark. Maeda is 35. His last season, he managed a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. He's coming back from TJ. He'll be a bullpen arm. This season has pretty clearly shown we don't have the horses to pitch us to a 90-win season - heck, probably not even to a winning season. We need an overhaul of the system. Barring that, we need several real starters, and simply hoping that another year of experience and getting healthy is a really bad plan. The lineup will be fine.
  6. gunnarthor
    I'm sure they won't do that but shoulder injuries are usually much, much worse then elbow injuries. 100 innings seems like a reasonable over/under to me.
  7. gunnarthor
    I'm still a big fan of Martin and think he'll right the ship. Balzovic will pitch in the majors, I'm not sure how well though. I was hoping he'd be another solid Joe Ryan-type. I'm sure he'll get a chance next year.
  8. gunnarthor
    The 2023 Twins will face the same issues the 2022 Twins did - bad pitching. Sonny Gray is a real ML pitcher and easily our best one. Joe Ryan is a solid back of the rotation starter but wouldn't be a starter on a playoff caliber rotation. Mahle has shoulder issues so we can hope he's healthy but should probably plan on only getting 100 innings from him. Maeda is 35 and coming back from injury. His last season with us, he produced a 91 ERA+ and .3 WAR. We should probably expect more of that production then any SSS. So the Twins need pitching. Tons of it. The pipeline is a failure. The pitching philosophy is boring and a failure. So, lots of work to do in the offseason.
  9. gunnarthor
    I'm higher than most on both Martin and Julien. Love them both. I know Martin's bat is struggling but he can still take a walk, he looks like he absolutely knows the strike zone. Those are my favorite type of hitting prospects. The hits will come, as will the power. Julien was a nice steal. He'll be a solid MLer.
  10. gunnarthor
    That was a rough loss. Still, four more games can turn things around. Hope Springs Eternal!
  11. gunnarthor
    The reality is that the new FO came in at great time, a great young nucleus, money, and the number one pick. Their job was to mimic the Twins 2000 success: supplement that nucleus and keep the window of opportunity open longer. They failed on both fronts. Their pitching pipeline doesn't exist, they've drafted poorly, and they've misjudged talent they had. If we miss the playoffs again, they should be gone.
  12. gunnarthor
    This is such a dishonest piece that it just hurts to read. I assume the next article from Ted will be about how Falvey swam 15 KM down the Mississippi river 1 hour and 5 minutes.
  13. gunnarthor
    I loved this pick and think he's easily our best prospect since Buxton. He'll end up #1 overall next year.
  14. gunnarthor
    This, exactly. He's a solid ML back of the rotation pitcher. I think he could pitch a little longer but what we have now (at age 26) is probably enough to know. Over a full healthy season, we can expect 30 or so starts, 160-170ip, with an ERA+ around close to 100. That's close enough to be a 2 WAR player. The Twins have had a ton of solid, back of the rotation pitchers over the years. I also wouldn't be surprised if he goes the Swarzak/Duensing route and becomes a long reliever in the next few years. But this is what he is and is pretty much in line with the realistic scouting reports. He's not going to be Jose Berrios but he can be useful.
  15. gunnarthor
    The Astros have managed 80 quality starts in 137 games - meaning the pitcher went at least 6 innings, less than 3 runs. The Twins have 28. The Twins have 25 blown saves, third worst in baseball. Astros starting pitchers have thrown 150+ more innings than us - that's more than 17 full games worth of innings by their starters. Twins starters have thrown 80 or more pitches in a game only 53 times, by far the lowest number in baseball. Can you imagine how much better the Astros would be if they didn't let their starters pitch so much?
  16. gunnarthor
    Yeah, I enjoyed the first game. I figure this team could finish the season in the top 20 but they aren't good enough to be a top 10 team.
  17. gunnarthor
    Meh, games should be fun to watch. Watching a ****** pitching staff sucks. Watching a boring, ****** pitching staff is worse. If the Twins philosophy is only twice through the lineup, does that mean we've given up trying to teach our minor league pitchers to develop their third and fourth pitch? Do all of our cruddy pitchers through the same meat? Is that the goal? Find a bunch of 4 inning pitchers and claim a pipeline? I have no idea why you think we should welcome shorter starts. Sure, it's happening but it was a lot more fun watching pitchers figure out teams through the game.
  18. gunnarthor
    Missed most of this turkey. Not a lot of reason for optimism.
  19. gunnarthor
    Yeah, my bad, I thought he was out for the year. Much better that he's not.
  20. gunnarthor
    All three are solid additions but I don't think any were THE best, but it's just semantics. Mahle won't help the Twins this year, the other two look good. They were good moves, maybe enough to win the central, not enough to matter in the playoffs, but one step at a time.
  21. gunnarthor
    That was a nice win. Nice to see a win streak again.
  22. gunnarthor
    I've always been a big fan of Bundy and was really glad the Twins grabbed him this year. My guess is that they give him the 1m buyout and try to resign him for more than 4m but less then 11. Other teams might be interested in him, too. I was ok with the trade that brought Pagen here even though the results haven't been great so far. I can't see this team letting Pagen go at this point though. He's cheap enough where they can't really let him go and I'm sure they think that he's really close to turning the corner.
  23. gunnarthor
    I actually like the Twins minor league bats, it's a good mix of high end potential and solid floors. Brooks Lee was an excellent draft pick (mlbpipeline ranked him #33 overall!), Wallner is close and might let us move on from Kepler, Royce Lewis looked like the real deal before his injury, and Rodriguez and Urbina are a long way away but could be absolute studs. I'm still a big fan of Martin, an on-base machine, which I think is what teams are realizing they need to get back to, and Julien and Noah Miller are also good at getting on base. I'm not quite as good with farm systems as I was a few years ago, but I feel that the team has some really good upside with the bats. But the pitching, ugh. We just keep hoping but there doesn't feel like there is much upside. Bunch of AAAA/long reliever/4-5 inning starter stuff in the system.
  24. gunnarthor
    I agree with everything you said but until there is a significant change in philosophy, it won't happen.
  25. gunnarthor
    I doubt his career is over, he'll pitch somewhere in the majors again. But for a 5th round pick, he's had a nice career. He's made over 7m (I also believe he signed a neat contract with under armor where he got a bunch of money v. his future value. Could be wrong on that though). And he lasted a long time. Good on him to work and good on the Twins to hit on a 5th rounder.
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