gunnarthor

I think this post is more or less where I'm at. The trade, standing alone, made sense although I wasn't as big a fan of Arreaz as others are. I figured we traded him at the right time, rather than a year too late. But the bigger point is that this trade happened b/c we were unable to build the pitching pipeline we were promised and several of the trades before it didn't work as we wanted. The loss of talent like Steer and CES but also guys like Wells and even Baddoo, limited how the Twins could get new talent. I think that's been my biggest complaint about this new FO over the years - they've done a pretty crappy job of recognizing/measuring internal talent. But, to the Lopez/Arraez trade, Miami is the winner right now but Lopez seemed to me the type of pitcher we should try and get and if he can stay healthy for his contract, I'll be pretty glad we have him.

I love gardening, too. We planted a ghost pepper this year! I actually have a really good line of raspberries growing - red, black, and gold. Delicious. Can't grow blueberries worth a darn, though.

The offense can't be this bad all season. Last season, they had a team OPS+ of 105 and we felt they were underachieving. This year, it's 98! Regression will be a positive for us. But the Twins have wasted some really good pitching. As ugly as Pagan and Jax have looked at times, the staff still has an ERA+ of 128. Sadly, that won't be sustainable either. But, the AL central is a dumpster fire so we should still be ok.

You're not wrong and I really didn't like last years team. That said, I think this is slightly different - mainly how bad Cleveland is. This Twins team has a bit more depth (I think). I am worried about the pitching regression that's coming and how that can create a death spiral. But, unless Cleveland gets right, I don't think we're going to be caught.

The central is pretty bad so I think we will win it. I got to watch yesterday's game - first one of the year! - and remembered I don't really like Rocco. Not sure any of this is on him, necessarily. I just don't like him as a manager. Anyhow, we should be fine. We have enough talent to hold off the rest of the central. Probably won't make a lot of noise in the playoffs but making the playoffs is, IMHO, better than not making the playoffs. And we have some nice young hitters coming up in the somewhat near future.

I think the logic was, more or less, sound. Lewis and Adell were my favorite guys and Adell just wasn't in the mix to go 1. Leech/Rooker seemed like reaches at where they were picked but Leech had a lot of helium so it wasn't a crazy pick. Enlow was a big overslot pick so, as we were told, it was like having another first rounder. So the logic is easy to follow. The results have been a bit disappointing but that's the reality of the draft. If Lewis was healthy, this draft might look completely different. .

You know, you're right. Better comparison.

Yeah, the bats are coming back a bit. It would be a bit surprising if the Twins didn't win the central at this point BUT the pitching will come back down. There is no way this staff will maintain a 133 ERA+ all season (it would be cool if they did, of course). So I'd like to see the bats continue to improve. I have to say, Sonny Gray is kinda reminding me of 2014 Phil Hughes. Out of nowhere, he finished second in fWAR that year. Would love for that to happen again.

baseball-reference has every trade. I think the trades that bothered me the most were the ones that show a lack of a plan by the FO, rather than disappointing results. Examples would be the deadline trades in 2017. First, we talked all off-season of trading Dozier but couldn't make it work, which made us look pretty stupid. But then we were competitive (which I called but most were surprised by). So the FO goes out and trades a nice dynamic arm in a "win-now" trade to grab Garcia. But then a week later, we backtrack and trade Garcia and our closer, pretty much assuming we couldn't win this season. Of course, the team still made the playoffs despite the FO. They FO had no idea what they were doing. At the end, Ynoa looks like a good arm, although he had elbow issues so he might be done. In 2018, they traded a 2nd rounder to dump salary. That might have been more an ownership thing but small market teams like the Twins should horde, not trade, picks. That's why I also really don't think the Graterol/Maeta trade was great since we gave up a pick as well (Graterol has been pretty solid and has pitched about 30 innings less than Maeta since the trade despite being a relief pitcher). It's another reason I don't really like the Gray/Petty trade. Grabbing Gray for Petty made sense but only if they were going to do more. They didn't. So we traded a big time lottery ticket and still had a very bad pitching staff. They tried to cure that by adding Mahle late but that was a mistake, But it kinda makes sense so ... [The Dyson trade was a huge blunder but I'm honestly not sure if the Giants lied or the Twins didn't do their due diligence. But it was a bad trade.] On the other hand, I actually like Lopez trade the most. I think they picked the right time to trade high on Arreaz (unlike Dozier). And adding Taylor made sense to be competitive this year. It looked like the Twins actually had a plan to improve the staff. The Cruz trade was a no-brainer but it was nice to see them get something back for him and I liked the Berrios trade even though Martin has been hurt. I do think the FO has generally been worse but I also think they've gotten better and learned from their mistakes. Hopefully, this season continues to be a good one for us.

I'm hoping Max Clark is there at 5. If we get him, it's a strong draft. At 34, along with the names already suggested, someone like Charlee Soto would be wonderful and, potentially, realistic. I like tall pitchers but I don't think Sykora will be there but he could be. If we got Clark and one of those two tall HS arms and Ledbetter at 49 ... 😁

Except for the Bears game, the first half of that schedule is rough. The second half looks pretty doable although I'm really curious how could Detroit will be. On paper, they should finally be good. But they could easily find a few ways to be the Lions we all know and love.

Meh. Most trades are defensible. The issue should be is our FO consistently making good trades/bad trades? Are they evaluating talent correctly? I think if you look at all the trades this FO has done, most haven't been that good. This is just another mistake in a line that's getting a bit long.

I liked this draft a lot at the time and it was pretty good. Another good pick that didn't work out was Tyler Benninghoff in the 11th round. He ended up with serious arm injuries but it was the type of risky pick teams should take when they have some cap money. Kiriloff is obviously the star (if he can stay healthy) but the other great thing about this draft was how young these guys were when we drafted them. Kiriloff, Baddoo, Rorvedt and Balozvic were 17. Baddoo at 24 has amassed more WAR than Larnich has at age 26. Draft young, toolsy players.

My feeling at the beginning of the season was that the team hadn't done enough to fix last year's problem - pitching. And, like last year, the pitching has started hot. If the Twins pitching staff really is a 133 ERA+, we have nothing to worry about. But I suspect the pitching staff will regress a lot. But, you want reasons for optimism? The starters are throwing more pitches this year and eating more innings. We have Buxton and Correa. Brooks Lee isn't too far away. The offensive pieces we have are too good to be this bad. The offense will get a lot better by the end of the season and it's certainly not going to stay at a 91 OPS+. And, of course, they took the season series from the Yanks. We're in first place. So enjoy the run.

I think Miranda's upside is a bit limited but I think he can be a 2-3 WAR player on a solid team. I'd let him play for now but Brooks Lee looks like the legit future third baseman so Miranda might become expendable.

I haven't been able to watch any Twins games this year, so I don't know what he looks like, but my general though it no, we keep him in the lineup everyday. He's not as young as I'd like but he's supposed to be a cornerstone. Give him a lot more time. 1000 ML at-bats before we write him off. He has nothing left to prove in the minors.

Ding Liren is the new World Champion at chess after beating Nepo in rapid tie-breaks. The last game was a crusher. Looked like Nepo was fine and potentially could win but then it all fell apart for him. https://www.chess.com/news/view/fide-world-chess-championship-2023-tiebreak-ding-liren

I liked the Roy pick in the 5th round.

I'm ok with the pick. Let's have a fun offense that scores a ton and just enjoy that. Cousins replacement will certainly benefit from those weapons, as well. We'll just have to win a lot of games 35-32. :-)

Nice to Larnich hitting well.

88 pitches and he was dominant. And we pull him. I bet we're going to get an amazing 140 innings from him this year. In all seriousness, dud he slow a bit in his last inning? Was he showing fatigue?

The trade made sense on paper but it didn't work out (yet). Hopefully, he gives us a strong season and a playoff win or two.

3-0, can't complain.

I think this is where the Twins really will suffer (again). They want to be more like the Rays, I guess, but I just don't see it working. To me, this is just a strange philosophy for the Twins to embrace. The good Twins team of the 2000s major flaw was depth - they just couldn't overcome injuries like big payroll teams could. We couldn't add an established arm like the Yankees and Red Sox always could. But this philosophy - have your best pitchers pitch less and less each game - means that we have to find more and more pitchers to carry the load. So we have to find a few Everyday Eddies or a bunch of AAA/AAAA arms we can shuffle between the majors and the minors on a, basically, weekly basis. This will - likely - expose the teams lack of pitching depth. And this team doesn't have good pitching depth.

Cleveland wins the central, Sox come in second. I think the twins will finish below .500 again and we will be sellers at the deadline, making the team a bit worse and improving draft position. I just don't like the pitching staff and health could be a killer.