IndianaTwin

Rones are red, Violets are blue. White Sox suck, That’s all that comes through.

People see 2024 Paddack and 2023 Maeda and consider it a wash, because both are coming back from TJS, but there are three significant differences. Paddack is eight years younger. More importantly, he’s four months further removed from his TJS, and his rehab went well enough that he actually pitched at the end of last year. Said another way, on Opening Day, Paddack will be just over a month short of the second anniversary of his surgery. Based on what we saw last year, I think Paddack is going to much closer to full strength on Opening Day than Maeda was a year ago. Will Paddack make it the full season? Who knows, but through his first four starts with the Twins (before the short start that led to the surgery), he had a 3.15 ERA.

Kansas City: I prefer https://www.arthurbryantsbbq.com/ over https://gatesbbq.com/, but you can't go wrong with either. There are others on the scene that are trendier, but these are the earliest entries in the John Deere vs. Farmall-type discussions. Also, Arthur Bryant's is right around the corner from the Negro League Baseball Museum, a must-see if you haven't been there yet (and worth a revisit if you have). As stadia go, I give Kauffman major props for having modernized in a way that doesn't detract, but rather adds, to the ambience. I hope to make a return trip there this summer to commemorate the Golden Anniversary of my first major league baseball game as a kid. Alas, the Royals are on the road July 13, so I'll have to choose an alternate date. Milwaukee: Folks on TD have mixed feelings on this park. I will say that of all the MLB parks, I have found this one to be the most accessible for someone with a physical limitation/mobility challenges. If that's a factor for you, know that you will be in good stead here.

The difference is a stop-and-start in the two inning appearance, along with an extra warmup time with an additional eight pitches. It's been 45 years since I've thrown anything but a batting practice pitch, so I can't speak from experience, but teams seem to consider that factor seriously and try to avoid it. Only going from memory, it seems like when outings last from one inning to the next, it's much more often that they have finished and inning and then get a full inning (and probably on less than the top end of your 5-9 range) than it is to pitch even a short full inning and then go back out to start the next. They seem very reluctant to send out a pitcher (other than perhaps a starter) without the plan that they will pitch the full inning.

What's the purpose of the internet if not to speculate on things without complete information? /s

Correct -- someone can be put on the 60-day at the beginning of spring training, but the 60-day calendar itself doesn't start until Opening Day.

Of note is that the 48 games from Headrick/Sands/Winder produced 82 innings, so it's not really fair to compare that to Lopez's 37 games that produced 35.1 innings. Rather than calling someone a "stretch" reliever, I prefer to think of him as No. 8. The reality is that there's always going to be games when the bullpen is relatively tired and/or the game has gotten out of hand, so you want someone to pitch the ninth and/or eighth who isn't going to negatively affect the next game or two. The No. 8 role also has another function, which is to audition for the No. 7, 6, 5... role. Whether you talk about Duran, Jax, Stewart or Thielbar, none came into their current role immediately. They worked themselves up the food chain. The place to start is No. 8. Prove yourself and you can become No. 7, 6, 5... Even if you look back at Duran, four of his first seven appearances went 2.0 innings and nearly all were pretty low leverage. He moved up the ladder quickly, but he started out on a low rung. Others have followed the same trajectory, even if they didn't move as quickly or as high as Duran. Sure, the preference is to have eight lights-out guys who could all step in to pitch two shut-down innings, but that's not going to happen. There's always going to be an eighth guy in the pen. What the Twins have done in pursuing depth is put themselves into position to have a better No. 8 than they have had in the past. (Also, aren't indications that Canterino and Woods Richardson will be in St. Paul, working as starters, knowing that they need a No. 8, 9, 10 on that side as well?)

So what you are alluding to is that Miami will skillfully and cunningly avoid making the playoffs? But you think they are being delusionary and will make it anyway?

Five, actually. 3, 6, 28, 29, 36

Splitting hairs, but Farmer’s is a mutual option, which is rarely exercised by both. Also, add Dobnak’s $3M. I agree with what I think is your overall point, however, that the decline this year is reflective of significant increases next year.

I heard the reason it was rejected was that the heft required to publish the book brought concern it could be a dangerous projectile.

Not to mention that, if I understand it correctly, any guy they picked up on waivers has already made it past a bunch of teams once. Times can change and a team could reconsider, but for the most part, they are just needing to sneak the guy past a few of the teams, teams that in theory are stronger teams.

Are you referencing the Twins 60 day opening up? If so, who? It seems like the first time in a few years that we don't have someone headed that way as soon as needed.

And Randy Dobnak. 😀 I do suspect they'll sign another body or two. Even if they don't pull a Keuchel and earn a callup, they are needed to keep the "real" prospects on schedule in terms of days off, etc.

To summarize... Duran Jax Stewart Thielbar Funderburk Jackson Staumont Duarte Topa Alcala Balazovic Winder And a lot of those have options. I get that relievers are volatile, but that's a lot of possibilities that have had some level of MLB success, plus a couple at the end who seem to have potential. Beyond that... In looking at this list, I'm not too hung up on exposing Balazovic to waivers if it comes to that. I don't see how you add Varland to that list when doing so currently means SWR as the No. 6 option as a starter. Related, have we had any AAAA starters added on minor league contracts yet?

I guess I'm not understanding the need to search for a RH batting outfielder. I mean, yes, if you look at the roster, Buxton is the only pure RH hitter in the outfield listing, but the infield can easily be all RH if they want to play platoon, and we know the C will be as well. With only 13 position players, you need a lot of switch hitters to create an entire platoon lineup. Ain't gonna happen. And given the preponderance of right-handed pitchers, if you're going to err, err on the side of having too many LH batters. Facing a lefty, all you need to do is put Farmer at 2B and the switch-hitting Castro in one of the corners, and you've got seven righties: Jeffers/Vazquez (c), Santana (1b), Farmer (2b), Correa (ss), Lewis (3b), Buxton (cf) and the switch-hitting Castro (lf/rf). That leaves two from Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff (or even Julien) to have the other corner outfield spot and DH. And shucks, if it's Vazquez's day to catch, you could even use Jeffers as the DH and have eight righties. (To anticipate the question, what about Buxton getting hurt? Well, Castro plays CF against lefties, so you might have three LH batters in the lineup, rather than just two. But if's that big of a deal and Martin is pounding the ball, he's also an option to bring up.)

Waiting is not allowed on the internet. One must make a strong and immediate opinion and then yell it loudly. /s

Or they think it’s more likely they can sneak Jensen through waivers than Balazovic. After all, a good number of teams have already passed once on Jensen.

He was hurt most of the year and he was below average in hard-hit balls. Seems like those two might be related?

Out of curiosity, what's your evidence that Seattle initiated this trade? Overall, I don't think their silence is evidence of their not pursuing people. More likely, I think it's evidence of their preference to work below the radar.

I'd welcome a repeat of that Saturday morning two winters ago when I woke up and freaked out to the news of a Correa signing, this time with Bellinger. The handedness is wrong, but there's not many guys who could solve the challenges of having a Buxton backup, a proven first baseman and an extra bat with one roster spot. His agent is, ahem, Mr. Boras, and the Twins have shown the willingness to be creative with him late in the offseason. This FO also been good at pulling off deals and signings that were completely under/off the radar. (You heard it here first, film at 11. 😀)

The last part of your first question is key. After a good start, Bundy kept getting starts because the alternatives were Anibel Sanchez, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Chi Chi Gonzalez and the 2022 versions of Varland, Woods Richardson and Sands. I think we're optimistic that this year's 7-12 are better than that crew. If they are, and if DeSclafini is at 4.89, I doubt he gets 29 starts like Bundy did.

On the 2024 team... 1. Realistically, Polanco wasn't going to get more than 350-400 at bats, which now get spread among some combination of Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Kirilloff, Lee and perhaps others. Aren't we clamoring to let the kids play? 2. DeSclafini doesn't line up at the top of the rotation, but after his 2021 (130 ERA+), there were certainly folks on TD who were interested. Yes, that was two winters ago, but the past two years have been injury-riddled. I trust the Twins doctors more than I trust us on TD. At any rate, what this does is greatly increase the likelihood that SWR doesn't make the opening day rotation. Because without DeSclafini, the Twins were only one injury away from that happening. 3. DeSclafini may not improve the No. 5 spot, but I think he greatly improves the No. 6 spot by having Varland there rather than SWR. Last year we were worked up about Ober starting the season in St. Paul and he was up by the end of April. Varland hasn't done as much through 2023 as Ober had done through 2022, so I'm not concerned about Varland not being in the opening day rotation. If he's healthy and pitches anywhere close to solidly in his first start or two at St. Paul, he will make a start for the Twins by the end of April by virtue of an injury. If he doesn't, that means health -- cool! 4. The Twins approach to the bullpen is to throw a lot of darts at the wall and see who sticks. In Topa, they just got another dart. I don't know if he can be counted on to be in the Jax/Thielbar/Stewart group at 2-4 in the bullpen, but it sure seems like he's another in the Alcala/Funderburk/Staumont/Headrick... group. Topa even has two options, which adds flexibility. 5. And that doesn't take into account the freed up money, particularly if, as noted above, Seattle is chipping in $8M. (And then there's the prospects.) I've often said that this team's MO is generally not to make massive moves, and this isn't one of them. Instead, they seem to make moves that keep nudging the needle in the right direction. It seems this one does some of that, and we still don't know the carryover effect to other moves that are in the pipeline.

@Cody Christie, how do you categorize Jose Miranda and Bubba Thompson among the hitters. The latter, in particular, seems like he could be on the list above. What is the option status on them? Beyond that... Hitters: Trades and injuries will happen, but right now I'd think the 13 hitters desired (by the FO, not by those on TD) hitters are Jeffers, Vazquez, Correa, Farmer, Julien, Lewis, Polanco, Castro, Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Buxton. From there: If there's an injury to a catcher, Camargo takes his spot. (He does have options, right?) If there's an injury to someone else, Gordon gets the spot. If there's NOT an injury to someone else, the Twins are loathe to give up on someone, so I suspect they'd keep Gordon in favor of Larnach, just to give him a final shot. The likelihood of an injury or trade makes this scenario doubtful. Pitchers: Trades and injuries will happen. Otherwise... Right now, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland are the starters. Woods-Richardson is No. 6. Duran, Jax, Stewart and Thielbar are the first four in the bullpen, likely followed in some order by Alcala, Funderburk and Headrick. Do any of the last three have options. In that scenario, Balazovic gets the No. 8 bullpen spot until he either pitches himself up the chain of command or out of the organization, followed by one of the guys above. EDIT to add: Apparently @stringer bell and I were typing simultaneously and largely got to the same conclusion, with him choosing Miranda and me Larnach. Either way, one's up, one's down and Gordon is relying on an injury to free up a spot. Because of the option situation, Miranda and Larnach only BOTH make the list is if there are two injuries.

<Hand shake> <Double hair tousle> I need to track this down for a re-watch. Originally a date night for me and the future Mrs. IT.