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IndianaTwin

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Everything posted by IndianaTwin

  1. IndianaTwin
    This year's returnees... It's a strong group of returnees, with Helton (6th year this year, 72.2% last year), Wagner (9th, 68.1%), Andruw Jones (7th, 58.1%), Sheffield (10th, 55.0) and Beltran (2nd, 46.5%). Of those... I think Helton gets in -- virtually everyone who is that close makes it the next year. Wagner will get close, if not in, for the same reason. Jones has been climbing particularly quickly. He only had a little over 7 percent his first two years. I think he will take another big jump. Last-year guys almost always have a jump, so that will boost Sheffield, though I doubt he gets all the way to 75%. I think Beltran will take a significant jump as he gets further away from the Astros scandal. Exiting from last year... Only Rolen (76.3%), Kent (46.5%) and five single-vote guys left the ballot, so there were not a lot of votes freed up. Virtually everyone who voted for Rolen (and more) will vote for Beltre. This year's newcomers... Beltre is a given. If he gets even 90 percent, he will have used up the Rolen votes and a significant number of the Kent votes by himself. Besides Mauer, the rest of the newcomers are Chase Utley, David Wright, Bartolo Colon, Matt Holliday, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Jose Reyes, Victor Martinez, James Shields and Brandon Phillips. That's a much stronger group than last year's first-year guys (Beltran, Francisco Rodriguez and then guys like John Lackey, Huston Street and R.A. Dickey). For example, Lackey had the second-highest WAR of last year's newcomers, but nine of this year's first-year guys had a higher WAR than Lackey. Conclusion... I think Mauer belongs in, but because of all those factors, I don't think there are enough votes available to get him in this year.
  2. IndianaTwin
    Fair enough. Maybe another way of saying it is that if we were ranking them, I'd have Lewis at 4 and Ryan at 5, but that's semantics. We're on the same page in thinking it would take a haul to include Ryan.
  3. IndianaTwin
    I’m not too interested in any of these guys in November. However, I add Nick Senzel to the list and would have some interest in him. I do talk to Hudson’s and Trevino’s agents, however, and let them know I may have interest if they are still on the board in February. In general, I like the two-year rehab deal for Woodruff, but I don’t see it happening in a budget-tightening year. I
  4. IndianaTwin
    Thanks. I’d flip Ryan and Lewis in your groupings, but other than that, you saved me a lot of keystrokes, particularly with your last paragraph.
  5. IndianaTwin
    If that works with Moran, I'd consider trying to do the same with DeLeon.
  6. IndianaTwin
    I saw it as chips, which I think is disgusting on a burger. Then again, I thought the same about putting mac and cheese on a burger until I had it at a roadhouse on Highway 81 in South Dakota. Boy was I wrong. Though I have strong opinions on many things, I don't on Gordon. He seems too far down the pecking order to be of much value, and I don't see him having much value to other teams, though he might turn into the next Akil Baddoo. Though not an issue now, I suspect Gordon's roster spot will be of more value later in the winter than he is.
  7. IndianaTwin
    (For ease of reading, I moved the guys who've debuted into their own line in the quote above.) One of the key points for me on this list is that we shouldn't get our shorts wound too tightly when one or more of these (maybe even one of our favorites) gets moved for pitching. For example, if Baseball Trade Values is anywhere close to correct, Lee would get us a stud pitcher with a couple of controllable years. For reference, it would be a pitcher in the range of Pablo Lopez's four controlled years. Or Tanner Bibee's five years or Gavin Williams' six for Cleveland.* It seems Lee is seen as untouchable by some on TD, but I'd gladly trade him for a starter like Lopez, Bibee or Williams. A second key point is that having prospects like this is part of developing the "Pitching Pipeline."** Our two best starters for next year are both trade pickups, and I'm good with that.*** *I know the likelihood of an intradivisional trade of this nature is very low -- I was just looking for some pitchers with a lot of control and similar perceived value, and they were the first ones I came across Likely you can find examples on teams that are better trade fits. **This needs the little "Trademark" mark thingie, but I can't figure out how to go Superscript. ***This comment is not intended to highjack the thread and take it in another direction as we argue whether or not the Twins have developed this "Pitching Pipeline."
  8. IndianaTwin
    Though Severino played 1b, 2b and 3b this year, is he actually good at any of them? Given that he had as many starts at DH as at 1b or 2b, I'm suspecting defense isn't strong. If that's the case, he's not matching Gallo's skill set. A major component of Gallo's being added to the team was his perceived strength at four defensive positions. They added Severino to the 40-man for a reason, but it wasn't to replace Gallo.
  9. IndianaTwin
    I like Atteberry as the studio guy and doing the postgame stuff. He’s always well-prepared for doing play-by-play, but it’s like he’s trying to squeeze in every nugget by the third inning. I do like that when Atteberry fills in for Gladden, it feels like Provus is able to relax a bit, knowing that he doesn’t have to carry Gladden.
  10. IndianaTwin
    Provus worked Hall of Famer PAT Hughes in Chicago, not former pitcher Jim.
  11. IndianaTwin
    And playing in places like Seattle and Minnesota.
  12. IndianaTwin
    I think you categorize Miranda as a 1B/DH. I don't see him playing much, if any, 3B, with all the options ahead of him defensively.
  13. IndianaTwin
    Only serious in the sense that it would improve my radio experience to have Gladden on TV. 😀
  14. IndianaTwin
    As a long-time radio regular, I'd welcome Gladden getting a "promotion" to the TV side. Alas, I think it's more likely to be Provus. I have too few opportunities to see Bremer on TV to make observations there, other than to say that 40 years of doing any job is worthy of congrats. I enjoyed his book, and I've enjoyed him as a Twins ambassador at places like TwinsFest. Blessings to him in the next steps, doing whatever a "Special Assistant" gets to do.
  15. IndianaTwin
    Could you please write yourself a reminder to post your first two sentences every week or so? It could save us from a lot of your third paragraph.
  16. IndianaTwin
  17. IndianaTwin
    Particularly if you are shopping at Dior. 😃
  18. IndianaTwin
    Agree. The Twins seem to have placed an emphasis on character, in their trades, their signings and their drafting. Whether or not there was anything to this, this wasn't the first time Bauer was in the news for a poor choice.
  19. IndianaTwin
    I didn’t have strong feelings either way on Gallo. As you note, he was clearly not performing well. I’ll also note that many on the “dump Gallo” train were also on the “dump Kepler” train and the FO was right on that one. (Many of these folks were also on the “dump Pagan” train, but that’s a different discussion. That discussion really only applies to this one in that the FO got two out of three right when it comes to the players who were consistently the biggest lightning rods for criticism. I tend to assume the FO is smarter than folks on TD (or at least me, anyway).) My primary point was to refute the false narrative of Gallo playing a ton, even after he was underperforming. Last year’s false narrative was the Rocco pulls pitchers too early, and we had to deal with that all off-season.
  20. IndianaTwin
    (I’m responding to this one, but there are several posts that reference Gallo’s playing time, particularly later in the year. It’s also a common theme elsewhere that Gallo played a lot throughout the year. I realize that “a lot” is a relative term, but I don’t think it’s accurate.) Wallner came up for good July 17. He DHed his first two games and then gave Kepler a day off in right. From July 21 on, Gallo started two games in left. After Wallner came up, it was Luplow and Castro (and to a lesser extent, Larnach) who started in left when it wasn’t Wallner. Post all-star break, it was not Gallo that kept Wallner from getting at bats. Gallo got 171 plate appearances after the first of June. He started 38 of their 106 games after the first of June, which is just over one game out of three. Nine of those starts were at 1b in a two-week stretch when Kirilloff first went on the IL. A primary reason Gallo got the number of starts he did was because of his defensive flexibility. He was the only player on the team to start at least six games at four different defensive positions. (Castro started at five different positions, but only twice at short and once in right. Unless I missed someone, no one else started at more than three.) He came in for defensive purposes quite a lot, but the perception that Gallo was anywhere close to a regular starter the last two-thirds of the season is not accurate. You referenced Farmer as a placeholder. I think that’s what Gallo was — it’s just that because of his defensive versatility, he was holding the place for different people at different times. They rode him while he was hot, but they played him a lot less than people suggest over the final two-thirds.
  21. IndianaTwin
    Plenty of big ones and lots of fun ones on the list. I want to pick the Aug. 28 Lewis shot against Cleveland, since I was at the game, but on Sept. 4… on the heels of a walk-off loss in Texas, traveling to Cleveland for a three-game series, up five, but with the possibility of leaving town only up two, and last year’s late-season collapse in our memory, Royce took on Giolito with the bases loaded and said, “Season over.”
  22. IndianaTwin
    I think there are enough internal options, but the obvious advantage of pursuing Bellinger is that you also have your CF insurance for Buxton.
  23. IndianaTwin
    I don't like discussions about what is an "ace," so I don't want to start one on what is a "workhorse," but here's the leaders in innings pitched over the past five years. You have to pay for the totals beyond 25, so I don't know the numbers. Counting 2020 as the .37 season it was, he's averaged 28.4 starts over that time.
  24. IndianaTwin
    The thing is, there doesn't have to be many teams offering 4 years guaranteed. Just one. Out of 30 teams, I think there will be at least one. It won't (and I'm with others in saying it shouldn't) be the Twins.
  25. IndianaTwin
    I read the article as well. Put me in the camp that was saying, "This means nothing," when he was supposedly complaining earlier and talking of retirement. If anything, I registered his "complaints" as a net positive. It told me he was a competitive player who is confident in his ability and wants to take on the challenge. I want a guy on my team who wants the ball when the game's on the line. I'd be more concerned if he was saying, "I was hoping Rocco would come out and pull me." Like others, I think length will be the bigger obstacle than AAV and think it's relatively likely that at least one team out of 30 will be willing to go four years. I don't think the Twins will be one of those, however. RB used the Buxton example as another where folks read more into a situation than was there. Like RB, I think these are both examples of the intangible "culture" the Twins have developed. Ultimately, dollars are going to speak pretty loud, but I think the FO has reached the point where players and agents are going to pick up the phone* when they see Falvey's name on caller ID. *Pick up the phone"? How old is IT? Probably still has rotary dial.
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