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Everything posted by DocBauer
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IMO, Kepler is a lock for 2024 as the Twins are banking on his improvement last year. And to be clear, his change in whatever he did, wasn't a couple of weeks. And it wasn't a month. It was from pretty much June onward. That's not just a SSS. And there isn't some easy, ready replacement for him if they move on. If we accept, for a moment, that his change in approach is not going away, who do you get to replace what he did from approximately June on? If his $10M is gone, what FA is signed who's better and at what financial cost? And if we're talking trade, I'd think a corner OF spot has to come after a rotation addition, as well as figuring out CF insurance/depth. I'll be shocked if Kepler isn't in RF for 2024. A healthy Polanco is a solid 2B with a career .780 OPS. He's very good. And he has the ability to also play some 3B, SS, and I believe some 1B going forward, actually increasing his roster contributions and said flexibility. The fact that Julien has shown improvement at 2B, can also play 1B, and that Lee will PROBABLY be as good as Polanco offensively, if not better, DOESN'T diminish just how good Polanco is. I don't want to move Polanco. I want him for 2024, at least, because he's a damn fine ballplayer and producer and I'd rather have the "burden" of trying to fit "too many" talented INF's on a 26 man roster and in the lineup than not. But I do think there's a good chance it's time to, maybe, move on come 2025. BUT, it's also possible the time to move on is NOW. I can see Polanco moved this offseason with someone else, to bring back an arm. I keep thinking he and Larnach, for example, to Seattle for an arm, could be similar to the Lopez trade last year. From the Twins perspective, you play the improved Julien at 2B, work in the kept Farmer, and wait for Lee to be ready. Just saying, I love Polanco and don't want to lose him, but I can see a trade path that makes sense.
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I don't disagree with this idea at all. And while the Twins are far more "plugged in" than we as fans are, I doubt they 100% aware of Gray's thoughts, reflections, and intent. Heck, Gray may be 100% sure of what he wants to do, or will do, over the next 3yrs, lol. I don't th8nk 3yrs at $62M is low, IMO, though others might disagree. I would offer him something very close, 1yr at $25M, second year around $22M, and some sort of player or incentive based, or mutual option for a 3rd year at $18. He gets almost double his career earnings over 3yrs. The Twins pay more upfront for 2024, and get a small savings each of the following 2yrs to mitigate other raises in payroll.
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John Bonnes’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint
DocBauer replied to John Bonnes's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
So $117M to begin with, if my math is correct. That leaves $33M to play with if the payroll stays at $150M and nobody off of the list above is traded. I've seen the final 2023 Twins payroll varying from $155-159M just depending on what site you look at. So if the 2024 payroll was a firm $150M, that would seem to be a slight cut from 2023. $33M is enough for a single, front line FA SP and then one decent position player/bat, but doubtful a star. Moving on from Farmer...though I like him a lot...frees up another $6.6M to help add a better position player. A trade for a SP probably involves at least 1 player on the list above, which frees up some $, and probably brings in a player costing less $ than a FA. The Twins don't have a huge stack of $ to work with, relatively speaking, but there is room to maneuver and add to and tweak the roster. -
He accepts the QO for one reason and one reason only: He's spoken a lot at the end of the season about a new found joy in baseball as his kids are now a part of it. They've been able to watch him, and do well, and see him on a winning team in a playoff atmosphere. The Twins are poised to reach the post season again in 2024, and he fits in well and seems to enjoy himself here. So he might want to go year by year and have the luxury of the freedom to go where he wants, when he wants, and not be tied in to a city. Retirement isn't an issue as he could sign a 3year deal with someone and retire after the first year if he wants. He's going to get a solid offer and will almost certainly reject the QO. The question remains how much will the Twins offer, and will he be back or sign elsewhere.
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Any Interest in Non-Tender Candidates?
DocBauer replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Without doing a deep dive, I can't say anyone jumps out at me. I do still like the Twins keeping Alcala for $1M. That's not much of a gamble for a high velocity arm that might be all the way healthy again. And Farmer has value, to the Twins, or to someone else in a trade. But Stewart was basically one of these guys a year ago. So was Hoffman, who they should have kept. So there's value in there somewhere, just a question of who. -
Pagan had 3 straight years of mediocre to awful. Low and medium leverage most of the time or not, the tweaks the Twins helped him make worked. At least for a year. As a result, he got some higher leverage opportunities in the second half and did OK. He made $3.5M in 2023. I'd be happy having him back for $4-4.5M in 2024, and make the assumption we're getting the same guy back. Does someone see his 2023 and decide he's worth a multi year $6+M per deal and just ignore his previous 3 seasons? If so, more power to them. The Twins won't do that and they shouldn't. But...and I can't believe I'm saying this...I'd like him back for somewhere in the $4 to $4.5M range.
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Matt Canterino: Bullpen Force?
DocBauer replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Normally, my opinion is to keep a talented young arm in the rotation for as long as possible. You'd love every talented arm to have a 10yr career in the rotation. But a 5yr career of being really good is usually better a career as a bullpen arm, even a great one. The problem here is the lack of innings thrown previously as a pro. Not sure I ever really broke down how few IP he's had since being drafted. He's got a pretty long road to build up to 100+ innings. So I'm now leaning towards putting him straight to the pen. But I am wondering if using him as an opener and going 2-3 innings isn't the smart option. It might help him build strength, work on all 3 of his offerings, and if things go unexpectedly great, maybe he stays there. But I just think it's a good way to polish all of his pitches. I 100% agree he, Jax, and Duran could form an outstanding back end of the pen.- 42 replies
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To be honest, I'm having a hard time with this list. I mean, how can I say no to Gray's age 34-36 seasons and then say yes to some longer deals for a different arm that will incorporate some of those same years? I love Gray, I think he's got tread on the tires still, knows how to pitch, is a great leader, and while his peripherals may never match 2023 again, he's just good. However, I do worry about age and injury and 2023 being the most starts and IP in 3+ years. I don't believe he's going to be AS GOOD as he was this past season, but for 3yrs and a little over $60M, he's near the top of my list. I have a soft spot for LH SP and sure wish the Twins had one. But despite a solid career with a couple great seasons, I'm just not able to trust Snell for that much and those years. He walks a ton, and except for 2018 and 2023, he's never thrown more than 129 innings. I like Montgomery and Rodriguez better. And when I look at both of their careers, back and forth, I don't see a lot to tip the scales either way. ERA and FIP and WHIP are so close. Rodriguez is only slightly better in BB/9 but Montgomery has the slightly better WHIP. But Rodriguez has a better K rate almost 2 more per 9 IP, and has been "doing it" at the ML level longer than Montgomery, even though he's about 6 months younger. BUT, Nola is my #1, hands down. He's durable, tosses a ton of IP, gets a ton of K's, and has a fine BB/9 and WHIP. His career FIP is below his very solid career ERA. His ERA, FWIW, jumped above 4 in 2021 and 2023. But overall, his peripherals were still excellent, a bit more so in '21. He won't turn 31yo until June of 2024. As long as the consistent 180-200 IP per season don't start to suddenly wear on him, I'm perfectly fine with a 5yr deal for him. $25M per season? No problem. If I'm the Twins...even with some questions about $ and TV contracts/payroll for 2024 and a spike in '25, I'd think about front loading the deal while a lot of my roster was still pretty young and inexpensive, and "buy down" his last couple of years. I MIGHT even bump a year or two another $M or two. If I could get him for 5yrs at $125M the day FA began, I'd be on his doorstep with a contract and pen in hand. I might even bring a couple pens, just in case, LOL. IMO, he's one of those guys who is often thought of as really good, but he's not GREAT. I mean, he's not a Scherzer or Verlander in their prime. And then you look a little closer at what he's done so far, and still only 30yrs old until June of '24, and he might have a couple even better seasons than he's had previously over the next 3yrs or so, and he might end up as a bargain at around $25M per. #1] Nola. Get the contract ready! #2] Rodriguez. ESPECIALLY if I could get him for $18M per on 5yrs. Again, why not front load a bit for the first few years if you can. #3] Gray. Keep what you have and what you know. He might not be as good as what he was in 2023, but he's had great success as a Twin, and you probably love what he gives you for at least the first 2 yrs. DARK HORSE OPTION: Never been a huge Giolito fan. But he's been very good for stretches. Still not yet 30yo and throwing OK numbers before trades and waivers had him bouncing around to a pair of teams to finish with nightmarish numbers to end his season, could he be a smart signing? Imagine control of his changeup again and the Twins doing what they did with Lopez and re-shaping his breaking pitch. Again, possible steal of a signing based on projections? I've listed my top 3. And for once, I wish the FO would make an actual FA investment that they feel good about and not go the trade route. I DON'T believe in building a staff via the FA route. It just never pays off in the end, final chapter, etc. But I do believe there is a collection of arms available this offseason that don't break the bank, or offer massive negative returns on 3-5yr deals that cripple a franchise. I'm still inclined to believe they will go the trade route, and I will refrain from speculation on such at this time. But the FO has surprised us previously, and may do so again. I just look at what's here and what's coming up, and I just really want them to hold on to that for right now and see how it develops and FOR ONCE, toss their cards in one ONE arm that they really believe in. If they're right, they can then focus on the lineup, the pen, extensions, and OTHER young arms being developed and coming up.
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So the Twins, generally speaking, spend 50-54% "ish" of total revenues for their payroll. This is based on previously mentioned topics of the same, as well as other comments that the FO/ownership is spending "more than they always feel comfortable with". Hence a proposed variation of 50-54%. With the Twins losing out on the $55M from Bally, that means a drop in payroll revenue of approximately $28M. Now, if they sign a new deal with WHOEVER at this point, and that deal is for...oh...$30M per year, that is approximately $15M to put towards payroll. That's a loss of $13M. That shouldn't be devastating to the Twins. A small bump here or there from network deals, a small increase in additional advertisement dollars, should all be options to help offset that amount and keep the Twins at least close to where they were this season, even if they don't increase for 2024. Heck, moving on from Farmer covers half that $13M by itself. The Twins would not appear to be in a dangerous financial situation at this time. That being said, to echo other comments, they aren't in a desperate situation anywhere on the roster. The only real hole is ONE quality SP to add. It could be Gray, or someone similar. It's possible they re-sign Maeda, or someone of similar quality. And that should be the floor, Maeda, similar, at a minimum. Since it is the #1 priority, I could see it done via trade or FA signing/re-sign before New Years Eve. I mean, you know what you need, you have a good idea what's available, why not get your #1 priority taken care of? After that, I can easily see the FO sit back and wait until after the Jan 1st to address the rest. They have generally been rewarded for their patience when they do so. And I'm fine with that strategy, even if it's boring from a fan's perspective, LOL. But I have and will continue to advocate to move earlier on priority #1 before sitting back.
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Actually, sorry I read this post. The Twins should trade the future for 1 or more HIGH PRICED FA to be, more or less. Hey, I'm OK to improve the team and WIN! But let's pause for a moment to reflect on what should be the primary 2024 Twins lineup. Young talent like Wallner, Lewis, Julien, and a healthy Kirilloff are a great start. All 4 were pretty damn good when given the chance, and AK was the team's best hitter for about 2 months before he dived and hurt his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine. I admit to being wrong about Kepler. Always a fan, I was ready to move on after 3 poor seasons and a bad early 2023. And THEN, he suddenly seemed to adjust. The whole "shift thing" was NEVER the issue. It was always about him just smacking the hell out of the ball when he made contact! And a couple of weeks is one thing. But a half season plus is different. I think he finally realized how natural his ability is. And he can trust now more in his approach going forward. So NOTHING ever works out exactly as planned. But let's play out a little fantasy baseball at this point. LF, RF, 3B, SS, 1B, 2B combo, catcher combo, 20 HR plus. Assuming, for a moment, generall health. Wallner is easily a 20 HR batter if not 30. Kepler is easily 20+, especially if we can believe in his 2/3 season turn around. Lewis is Lewis at this point. AK was the Twins best overall hitter for 2 months, finally hitting his ceiling, for diving for a ball and messing up his shoulder. Reports are he'll be fine. GREAT! (NEVER do that again). A healthy Correa is a legit 20 HR hitter. And our catching platoon is a legitimate 20 HR platoon. And Julien is a 20 HR bat with a solid OB % and seemingly clutch opportunity. IIRC, the Twins were #2 in runs scored post break. And I believe they tied the Rangers for most AL HR. And their offense was lead by young talent and a few veterans. So they should suddenly do what? Make a massive signing for an offensive FA that will be gone? Trade top prospects for a 1yr bat who will cost $500M instead of keeping what they have? HELLO to the Anegls for ZERO products produced despite having probably the best two players in the world. [Heavy sigh] what did I say about regretting reading this post?. My bad! On to pizza and TV worth watching.
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Trade for a lefthanded starting pitcher? Three options
DocBauer replied to DJL44's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Eduardo Rodriguez asks you to hold his beer. Snell might be better. Too expensive for the Twins and their approach to FA arms. Montgomery and Rodriguez are so close in age and peripherals from what I've looked at. But Montgomery is riding a hot streak right now. Does that increase his value? Again, I think the Twins will look toward a trade for a younger arm with control for at least a year. And there are questions about the TV deal and such. BUT, IF they went the FA route, they supposedly inquired about a 3 team deal that moved Gray to someone, and brought Rodriguez back. Might have just been rumor. But IF, the FO was inclined to ACTUALLY break the Twins previous FA record for a FA SP signing, Rodriguez might be the choice. His career numbers are pretty solid, and his FIP is better than his career ERA. His K per 9 is about dead on with 9 per. His WHIP isn't great, but is solid. At 30yo, do they see something to unlock to take him to another level as a very good #3, with potential to be a #2? In other words, is he a Lopez kind of addition, but via FA rather than trade? I'm not sold on Sale for a variety of reasons. Ray does nothing for 2023. Freeland I don't trust at all. And Sale is going to be out of any Twins price range. Now, it's been a while since the Darvish and Wheeler days of signing speculation. And I still think the FO is going to concentrate on what's on hand, what's coming up, and probably making a trade for someone to replace Gray...assuming the market doesn't dip and thus make Gray affordable. So many IF's right now in regard to the TV deal, and the impending market. And the Twins aren't the only team to be done with Bally, or almost done. There might be ripple affects. Or, there might not be. I'd be very interested in someone like Rodriguez, if it's true the Twins like him and see something in him to raise the ceiling. He's LH, solid, 3yrs younger than Gray, averaged just shy of 6 IP per start last season, and might be a smart 3yr $60-66M sign. But then again, who knows, the Mets might go crazy and sign him for 6yrs at $25M per just because they can! It would be nice to have a quality LH in the rotation for various reasons. But I really just want the best and deepest rotation I can get, regardless of handedness. I just think Rodriguez is someone to keep an eye on. I just don't expect a major SP FA signing. I expect a trade. And then I expect a cheap FA signing on a milb deal for depth. -
Trade for a lefthanded starting pitcher? Three options
DocBauer replied to DJL44's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Also, to a lesser degree, it breaks up the opponents lineup and approach at least once in a series. And, to a lesser extent, if you have a pair of quality RH arms who are similar in velocity and approach, the LH provides a break between those arms, assuming he's of similar quality. -
Brooks Lee's Anticipation Grows for His Moment in 2024
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I understand hope and misgivings concerning Polanco. But while his debut was slowed in 2023, his quad slash line was right about career norms across the board. There's life there, no doubt. Again, the question might be does he STAY with the Twins, or does someone really value him for their hole at 2B. To echo chpettit19, Lee won't sit on the bench and back anyone up. If he's not playing almost daily, he'll be at St Paul. That leaves room for Farmer at around $6M, which is pricey, but could be smart. He backs up Correa well...though Lewis and Castro and Polanco can as well...and can start at 2B against LH arms with Polanco spelling Kirilloff at 1B. Polanco can also DH once in a while. Now, whether or not the Twins can afford Farmer for one more season is TBD, but I'd sure like to see him back. Lee will force his way on the roster eventually, and/or, there will be injuries to provide opportunity. And say he's fully ready mid year, the Twins might have a trade chip or two to send out. But let's not pretend the Twins haven't had more than their share of bad luck with injuries. Lee is no reserve, he's a top prospect. But it's nice to have that kind of depth available. Same with, possibly, Prato. And I can see a scenario where Polanco sort of assumes the roll that Solano played this past season, only as a switch hitter. And we've got another switch hitter at AAA in Severino that might end up as an OK defender at 3 spots, but a powerful bat. Maybe not to open the season, but eventually. So there IS a lot of flexibility now, and in the near future. I just don't feel any need to rush Lee to the ML club, no matter how much potential, when we have some great options to begin the season with. Oh, shoot, did we forget there's a chance a healthy Miranda rebounds? So no to Lee as a reserve. Yes to room for Farmer if the budget can keep him for one more year. I'll save the OF for another day, but they obviously need a contingency plan for Buxton. The question will be a veteran like Taylor until Martin is ready, or, budget concerns that have them gamble on Martin or Keirsey, etc, early. And while this OP is about Lee, let's not forget that we could almost change the headline to MARTIN instead of LEE, and have almost the identical debate about roster construction. -
C.J. Culpepper is the Twins Latest Day 3 Success Story
DocBauer replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I really liked the 2022 draft an awful lot. But once you got past Lee in the 1st round, and the HOPE of Prielipp after him, the guys I really liked the most were Matthews, Lewis, and Culpepper. I liked Matthews and Lewis due to their length and the idea of adding velocity, the ball jumping on batters, and, of course, the fact that it seemed like each had at least one more solid offering at this point. Culpepper doesn't have the height/length of those other two, but he's still 6' 3". And he was only 20yo when drafted, didn't turn 21yo until the offseason, didn't play for a particularly large program, and didn't throw a ton of innings until his 2022 season. That spoke to "under developed" to me, with perhaps a low floor, but a good ceiling. So far, he's looked petty impressive. Really like just about everyone from that draft so far, but next to Lee, the arms are what's really intriguing.- 19 replies
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Brooks Lee's Anticipation Grows for His Moment in 2024
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Granted. I sure wouldn't pencil him in for 160 games, that's for sure. But sharing 2B with Julien...possibly Farmer depending on $ and final roster construction...and appearing at DH and maybe some 1B let's him "rest" his legs a bit. A healthy or semi healthy Polonco is a great ballplayer. And I'd rather pick up the option and take a little more time with Lee than just move on. He's definitely got miles on him. He might be 30yo but I think his legs are about 4-5yrs older. But I think there's still some tread left on him. Of course, someone like Seattle might agree and want to package a solid arm back to us for him. If so, you gotta think about that. -
Brooks Lee's Anticipation Grows for His Moment in 2024
DocBauer replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Lee is going to very good, if not great. And frankly, I couldn't care less which if he and Lewis plays 3B or 2B, they're both going to play. But isn't putting your very best team together always the goal? If so...and there could be financial limitations of course...why wouldn't you keep Polanco for this season? Lee was solid in AAA, but what guarantee is there that he's ready from day 1 to take a job and let the very good Polanco walk? Now, a trade of Polanco for help elsewhere is also a possibility, but still removes him from the team. And, in theory, means giving Lee a job. (Based on the general sentiment of the thread). Lee has 1 full year of pro ball and a couple additional months. He's very close. He himself says he's still working on some things. So why not keep Polanco and let Lee continue to work, and grow, and be ready when he's shown he's ready and opportunity presents itself? I can't wait to see him up. But I'm not so impatient for that day that I want to rush him in favor of shedding a very good veteran ballplayer like Polanco. -
The Twins need SOMEONE to play CF besides Buxton. You just have to assume you won't have Byron, and then be grateful for as many games as you get out of him. Should that someone be Taylor is the question. And I think it might come down to how much the FO likes/believes in Martin. If they feel he's nearly ready, we really just need a solid fill-in for a few months. Why not Taylor then? I might expect the power to drop, but see his SB numbers rise. The defense is still outstanding. And I don't think the Twins will be looking for a long term replacement in CF for 2024. So Taylor on another 1 year deal might make the most sense.
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To echo jorgenswest, he was promoted pretty quickly. And honestly, I don't think Detroit has done much to develop their young talent the past few years. So I don't know that Castro simply hasn't grown and improved as a ballplayer. It's definitely possible 2023 was an aberration and he will regress, at least somewhat. But isn't it just as possible he continues to improve, even slightly, instead? I really like his skill set and think his INF defense is quite good. I wouldn't be surprised to see him there more in '24. Here's hoping for a positive step forward for the kid instead of one back.
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I really wish more people would be considering him. I get he's a late bloomer...slowed by some injuries earlier in his career...but he really had a very nice 2022. In 135 games he slashed .258/ .337/ .432/ .769 and 46 XBH, which included 20 HR. He also stole 40 bases in 45 chances and scored 101 runs and drove in 60 In 38 games this past season...slightly less than a third of 2022 due to injuries...he produced at an even higher clip: .302/ .367/ .544/ .911 with 20 XBH and 8 stolen bases in 9 tries. He scored 31 runs and drove in 40. Take those numbers and times them by 3...figuring a full season like he had in 2022...and he pretty much exceeds his 2022 numbers. No question he's a late bloomer, and probably never a starter, much less a star. But he's go bat ability and a nice combination of speed and pop, and he can play 7 positions. He's got a good chance to be a solid and versatile bench option at some point in 2024, and perhaps beyond. A RH version of Castro, if you will. He's not in the same potential category as Lee, Martin, or perhaps Severino...but he's a rookie that I think has a chance to make a mark this next season.
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This is where I'm at. I'm so surprised by short term memory. Varland DEBUTED at Yankee stadium in 2022 and was solid where a lot, if not most, rookies, might melt. And while he wasn't great, he had a solid rookie debut in 5 starts. If memory recalls correctly, didn't he also win a game against the WS Astros? As pointed out by the quote in my post, Varland got his shot at the rotation after Ober. But he was also good to very good for his first 5 or 6 starts. And then the HR bug hit. And now we hear about his new sweeper. And I get why Rocco would get excited about another quality arm for his pen and think the guy could be "lights out". But we still have ZERO idea if Varland is a #2 or a #4 SP right NOW. Why on earth would you move a potential #2-3 starting pitcher to the pen this early? I think he might be a good to great RP. And I object to the whole age idea in regard to prospects, not just due to covid and missing a year, but to prospects needing more than a solid half season or so to firmly establish how good they might be. I LIKE what I've seen from Varland as a starter initially. I'd love to see what his new sweeper is like in his repertoire as a starter. And I believe that's where he should be for now. I WANT another 2023 debate how it's unfair "someone" has to begin the season in AAA. Varland might just turn out to be a great RP. But I would never turn a rotation arm to the pen this early with the stuff he's got.
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The thing I keep thinking back to is a recent comment made by Tom Froemming in a video. As he basically said, the FO/ownership knew all about the TV situation for some time now, and still went out and signed Correa, and signed the extension for Lopez. So while there might not be an easy answer as to what to do, or how it will all play out, I don't think they made those kinds of moves thinking to themselves: "well, I hope we win big in 2023 because after that, it's all downhill for a couple of years." Again, not sure how it's all going to work out, but I don't see payroll going up, as it has pretty regularly the past few seasons. But I am hoping it will stay at $150M with a new deal, maybe a few more $M coming from as of yet unknown source(s) like some new advertising, and FO/ownership pushing more towards a 55-60% spending threshold of total revenue. (at least in the short term). They've got roughly $30-31M to work with if that happens. And that's keeping all 3 of Polanco, Kepler, AND Farmer, if I understand correctly. So if one of those is not kept, or moved, they would have another $6-10M to work with. That should be enough for a quality starter, and one more good bat somewhere. Possibly a solid but not grossly expensive pen addition or re-sign, (can't believe I'm actually, maybe, probably, in favor of Pagan back), and set up an inexpensive, milb flier offer to a SP depth option. It's all a question of at least keeping the payroll at status quo. And I just can't believe they are remotely blind-sided by the loss of the Bally contract. So no matter how this turns out, I don't see any kind of big cut.
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Why Every Single Twins Hitter Is Actually Just Another Miguel Sano
DocBauer commented on Greggory Masterson's blog entry in Brewed in the Trough
"Kyle Farmer: Actually no I like him he works really hard he plays the game the right way and isn't afraid to get dirty I'd let him date my daughter." PRICELESS!! -
I've been torn on where he should be. But I guess I am still on the side of keeping him as a SP initially. If he builds up that arm...even with some careful monitoring...and can be a legit, quality rotation option in the near future, who cares if he's 26 or 27yo? Having 4-6 years of quality performance isn't as good as 8-10 years, but it sure doesn't stink! And being able to monitor him on an IP leash still allows him to work on all of his pitches, at least for now. I do have a feeling he's still going to end up in the pen eventually as even with a re-built elbow, gut instinct still tells me he's not built to eat innings, but to be dominate in 1-2 of them. And I think that's what's going to happen. I can see a fast track where he's with the Twins by the break in that role. But letting him work on ALL of his pitches and just see what he looks like as a starter makes sense to me to begin with.
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Nope, you're not an idiot at all. I have him high on my list for replacing Gray if A} Gray doesn't come back, B} They can't pull off another Gray/Lopez deal, or C} Can't pull off something like a 3yr $60M-ish + FA deal for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez. Honestly, I think he'd be more durable in 2024 than 2023 simply because the recovery is over, he's at full strength, and I think he's got at least one more good season left in him. He's not about velocity. He just needs enough of it to make everything else work, and it did once he came back from his IL stint. But I don't think he's worth $20M. I do think he's worth around $15 or so a year, whether it be 1yr or a 2yr deal. And if you offer him the QO, I'd bet he jumps at it. I think that would pretty much preclude the Twins from any sort of Gray reunion, or a quality FA, and might cut off any trade options that could potentially bring in a younger, even better option. Keep in contact. Let him know you are interested. But I don't see the QO making sense.
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Yes, it might indeed by difficult to replace what Solano did for the Twins in 2023. That seems especially true when you look at the list of other "candidates" of production that were monitored. But it doesn't mean the guy to replace Solano's production is Solano. His 2nd half was not as good as the 1st half. He's going to be 37yo. He has very little power. He's limited defensively, though honestly, I don't think he looked awful at any of the 3 spots we saw him at. I sit firm and comfortable in the middle of the Helman bandwagon. The Twins brought him to camp as a non 40 man invite as they saw something in him following 2022. Unfortunately, from a hamstring, to a concussion, to a dislocated shoulder, he lost a lot of this past season. But he was really good when he did play! He's got speed, pop/power, and can/has played all 7 spots on the field. And I will repeat what I've said previously, if he was healthy, I don't think you would have ever seen Luplow on the roster. I have finally become convinced Martin is going to be pretty good...if not really good...following a strong end to 2022 and his AFL performance. His 2nd half of this year...when finally healthy...wasn't great, but it was really good. I can honestly see him being the primary CF for the Twins in the 2nd half of 2024, though I'm hoping it won't come to that. (fingers perpetually crossed for Buxton health). It's also possible he plays the whole year with the Twins in a OF utility role. (he doesn't really NEED to play 2B/3B, but he can). Does Williams get a shot as a 1B/DH/#3 C? There might be room/fit for him. If Miranda shows up healthy and looks like his 2022 self, problem solved. He can fill in at both corner INF spots and DH and provide solid contact with power. After his milb breakout in 2021 and how good he looked for the bulk of 2022, he shouldn't be dismissed so easily. If our biggest concern is simply 1B, why not Polanco? I like the idea of Polanco being able to play almost daily...mostly at 2B of course...but also able to fill in at 3B/SS and 1B as necessary. If Farmer is kept, he can play 2B, Polanco can play 1B, problem solved. I have little doubt Solano will be available late in FA, or early in ST like he was last season. I'm grateful for everything he did to contribute to the team's success this past year. But I don't see him as being the replacement for himself.
- 32 replies
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- donovan solano
- jose miranda
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