Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Major League Ready

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,755

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Market score has a correlation to revenue but using it here as a measuring stick makes no sense. You can take a shot at arguing they should be able to produce more revenue in this market but the only measure that matters is revenue. It's also a misrepresentation to say they have a $250M payroll. The players they ended the season with add up to $250M but the Met's and cardinals paid for Scherzer and Montogomery. So, their actual payroll is $207MM this year. They go into next year with $173M + prearb and arbitration projecting at $210M. They have about $100M in revenue without the playoff revenue and about $60M more in salary. It's pretty simple in any business. If revenue goes down, expenses have to go down if profitability is to be maintained. So, what we really need to hope for is quite straight forward .... We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.
  2. Major League Ready
    Erod had a 28.6% BB% in low A and 20% in A+ with an OBP of .400. That indicates he is Julien like in terms of being selective. That's a lot easier to improve than a guy with a high K rate from chasing.
  3. Major League Ready
    The record budget that was established last year took that extra revenue into account. Plus, they got $30M from the final BAM payment last year. 2024 revenue will go down by the amount of the BAM payment and the reduction in local TV revenue. Selective accounting won't change this reality. We should be hoping the Pohlad's are willing to sacrifice profit while this gets figured out because the reduction in revenue is probable.
  4. Major League Ready
    If they trade Polanco but keep Kepler and Farmer, they could spend $46M given a $150M budget. I don't think they spend $150M but even if they came in at $140M, they could sign a very good pitcher and have enough money to do something with a RH bat. We all know it's hard to land free agent SPs but I am right there with you in terms of the priorities.
  5. Major League Ready
    When you say "Fangraph's worth", is this meant to convey a value measure or is a calculation of the average cost of 1 WAR?
  6. Major League Ready
    They are going to move Polanco for multiple reasons but one of them is not to make room for Lee. I think Jocko87 was on the right track. Polanco has been beat out for 2B and does not have a primary position. Farmer therefore fits this roster better (especially given he hits LHP better) but they don't have to keep Farmer either. They also have a better and more flexible defender in Castro plus several other players waiting in the wings including Lee / Severino / and Prato / Schobel or Hellman could get in the mix as well. The last and perhaps most compelling reason is the money is probably better spent on pitching or OF depth. I am fine with Polanco being traded if it creates enough payroll space for Jordan Montgomery as opposed to a reclamation project of back of the rotation depth..
  7. Major League Ready
    They don't have much for OF depth so I think Kepler is the most likely of the 3 you mentioned to be retained. Of course, they could get an offer they can't refuse. Polanco is the most likely to be traded. He is a good player but he would be diminished to a utility role. He is not well suited for that role and given that role the money can be spent more effectively elsewhere. The money is better used for a CF or 1B back-up plan. They would have $40M if they maintained payroll. We need to keep in mind that $150M payroll was done in a season when they got the final BAM payment and of course TV revenue is likely less. My guess is they spend $140M but that's obviously pure speculation. Perhaps (hopefully) they made a decision last year to allocate part of the BAM money to 2024 payroll so that they could maintain the current level of spending. My hope is that they are able to land a front of the rotation SP even though that makes Polanco's departure even more certain. That puts Varland in the BP and first man up if a SP goes down.
  8. Major League Ready
    I too hope that the Pohlads "eat it". That however is a very different argument than insisting there is no reason revenue should go down because they knew it was coming which was your original argument. The market has changed. Will it be possible for them to regain this revenue and how long will it take? The industry experts MLB brought in probably have a good blueprint by now but we don't have the benefit of the information and planning they have been working on. Spending is going down if the decrease in revenue generated by local TV is permanent. What we can hope for is the Pohlads take it in the shorts for at least a year while the team and the league work on a new model. Who knows, it's possible that new model will generate even more revenue through advertising that actually puts the first teams with cancelled contracts at an advantage.
  9. Major League Ready
    My firm had several clients over the years where their industry / market changed and it simply was not possible to generate the same level of revenue for a given revenue stream. We don't know exactly what how the alternatives are going to shape up or exactly how long it will take to develop a new distribution channel. Simply pounding your fist saying this is not acceptable has little value. The key would appear to be raising viewership through providing a wider range of options to get coverage and then capitalizing on advertising. I am sure a plan is in place but that pan could take 2 or 3 years to fully develop. The Pohlad's are not going to have a problem with a plan that loses 30% of revenue this year but provides a sustainable increase in revenue by year 2 or 3.
  10. Major League Ready
    It's looking like Buxton is the wildcard of 2024. We could get nothing but wow what a boost for this team if we get the best of Byron Buxton. We will find out how confident they are by what the line-up as a back-up plan.
  11. Major League Ready
    I agree that he is a good fall-back position. However, the QO would have to be made before they could sort out the other options. So, should they gamble on landing someone better or make the QO knowing that if he accepts that will be all they can do for starting pitching. I guess you could frame that as Paddack is replacing Gray and everything else remains the same. It's a reasonable move given how hard it is to sign one of the 2 or 3 guys that are reasonable targets but I sure would like to have an upgrade. I agree with Jocko it's a 50/50 chance he accepts. If someone offers him 2/30 that is probably more appealing to Maeda. Obviously, the Twins could then match the 2/30 if they want him for a couple a years.
  12. Major League Ready
    The problem with this is paying Maeda $20M negates the chance they get anyone better because they are not spending $45M+ on two free agent SPs. The target should be someone better than Maeda.
  13. Major League Ready
    MLB hired notable industry executives to come up with a solution, right? I would hope they are supporting all of the teams work toward a distribution plan that maximizes availability. I see this as an opportunity to significantly increase the number of households that can view games at a reasonable price. The best way to do that is a medium that is widely available. Obviously, doubling the viewers ship increases the advertising dollars and reduces the fees required to maintain broadcast revenue. This should be a great opportunity for baseball to increase availability.
  14. Major League Ready
    It has nothing to do with Rocco. Our pitching was better so he let them go longer. We got Willi Castro and MAT. They stole bases.
  15. Major League Ready
    It's an impossible task with the velocity and movement today. We will see the challenge system or automated strike zone in the not-too-distant future. The new rule changes have really improved the game leaving this problem front and center. BTW .... I think Julien is really going to be an on base machine when the system is changed. He gets called out quite a bit on pitches that narrowly miss the zone.
  16. Major League Ready
    Julien had the highest OBP on the team and struck out 31.4% of the time. I am all for cutting down the K rate but the discipline to take walks is also important. We have quite a few guys that swing at anything remotely close with 2 strikes and that's noit a recipe for success either.
  17. Major League Ready
    I would not call this FA class thin with Shohei Ohtani / Blake Snell / Aaron Nola / Jordan Montgomery / Sonny Gray / Marcus Stroman / Eduardo Rodriquez / Lucas Giolito / Julio Urias / Martin Perez / Jack Flaherty and bounce back guys like Tyler Mahle / Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. They need to pony up for one of the top free agents. We don't really know how much they have to spend but they can get payroll down to $122M if they trade Polanco and down to $115M if they trade or non-tender farmer. It should be doable. Getting one of these guys moves Varland to the BP and the 6th man when a starter goes down.
  18. Major League Ready
    Agreed. Let's hope Martin comes up / plays well and diminishes their role.
  19. Major League Ready
    They knew this was coming. If I were Derek Falvey, I would have arranged (internally) for most of the BAM money to be allocated to 2024. They only spent an extra $10M this year over the previous year so this could happen. Even if it were $20M "surplus", that should make up for a significant portion of the revenue decrease. Trading Polanco makes up for the rest ( I’M guessing). They likely go after a replacement for Gray and Polanco gets traded if they land someone like Montgomery or resign Gray. It’s also quite possible Polanco gets traded regardless. It will likely come down to allocating limited funds. Replacing Gray probably gets top priority and the OF is the next priority. The IF bench gets covered Castro / Miranda / Severino / Prato and Farmer if they can afford him. Polanco and Gordon are the most likely to go.
  20. Major League Ready
    They have been around 270-300M revenue. A 153M payroll also has roughly $17M is payroll taxes and player benefits. That’s $170M. Therefore, they would have to have operating costs of nest to nothing to arrive at the number you have come up with. The articles I have seen on operating expenses suggested they run 30-35% revenue which is roughly $90M leaving a profit of $10-$40M which is consistent with the estimates we have all seen. Just throwing a number out there is not credible. Show us some foundation or any other publication that has arrived at the same conclusion.
  21. Major League Ready
    The other 300 employees still need to be paid. Travel / Equipment / office space / and Target field operations still need to be paid. Revenue goes down and spending goes down just like every other for-profit business in America. I am not hoping they do something differently than every other business. I am hoping they find a profitable distribution channel.
  22. Major League Ready
    Bingo. What is the advertising worth if they make this available through a streaming service without blackouts? Maybe we will finally make it easy to get games because it ultimately leads to the most revenue for MLB. Let's hope they develop a plan to maximize viewership and drive advertising revenue. They could sell packages just like they do for tickets. 162 / 81 / 40 or 20 games with an option to pay per game. Nobody is paying for unwanted content in that model.
  23. Major League Ready
    This has nothing to do with 1B. You appear to be looking for a reason to complain. Talk about selective memory and ignoring the facts. He has sucked since leaving. He has provided replacement level value. Yet, you are bitching he is gone. It would be hard to spend the money less effectively. You might also want to look at Fangraphs data for the 2019 team. Rosario was 11th on the team among position players in WAR. He was far from "carrying the team". His wRC+ was 104. Just the facts as you like to put it. We may not have come up with a good replacement but that has absolutely nothing to do with the relative merit of letting him go. It was a great decision.
  24. Major League Ready
    I have always been with you on moving Lewis to CF or even making him a better version of Marwin Gonzalez. BTW ... The first guy I would trade from this team is Polanco. I would use the payroll plus Gray's salary to get a very good free agent SP and I would move Varland to the BP. This does assume they come up adequate revenue sources from TV distribution to maintain payroll so that they can sustain the roster.
  25. Major League Ready
    So, do we spend $30M on another "Correa type" free agent or do we trade Lee and a couple other good prospects for an impact player with two years of control? Personally, I am not trading top prospects for guys with two years of control. That's not a good path to sustained success. I would favor signing Montgomery or Rodriquez or even Snell if they can sustain a $150M+ payroll. I would sure like to know the plan for TV distribution. We know MLB has assembled the right people to address this issue and I would hope this is a coordinated effort among all the teams and the league.
×
×
  • Create New...