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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The percentage of revenue is a very rough guideline. I have always wondered does that mean salary plus benefits and taxation like every other business or is that a measure against salary only. If revenue decreases by $25M, how much do they need to reduce spending to net the same result. Obviously, the answer is $25M. How that equates to percentage of revenue is nothing more than an approximation.
  2. Major League Ready
    $10M buys one win in free agency. Is this really the most pivotal aspect of developing a strategy/plan to get to the next level?
  3. Major League Ready
    I am not at all suggesting what you are saying. I have said on several occasions that Polanco is the only player among Polanco/Farmer/Kepler that should/will be traded. If he is the only one of the three traded, they have enough payroll room to resign or replace Gray and I have been very consistent with that being a top priority and it's in the plan I posted. Given I said they only need to trade one guy I have no idea where you are coming up with trading the 2 hole hitter and the 3/4 hole hitter. Plus, Polanco is no longer a primary player. Julien and Lewis have taken those roles. He will still get a lot of playing time and Lee/Severino will have a hard time filling his shoes but trading players like Polanco (assuming value comes back) has proven to be a very effective practice for other teams.
  4. Major League Ready
    Agree with the doom and gloom being pathetic. However, I think you are going to lose people with it being a "transition" year because people are going to take that as stepping back when it sounds to me like you are talking about the young (cheap) guys taking roster spots which of course happened over the course of 23 and Lee/Severino are also on the door step. It's also simply time to move on from Polanco. I see the all of this as taking a step forward with the exception of the loss of Gray. They are going to have to find a way to replace him and that probably was never going to be by signing Blake Snell or similar FAs.
  5. Major League Ready
    In the next two years, assuming Polanco is traded and the others are retained, they still have $30M coming off between Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer, and Thielbar. That will cover the arbitration increases. I think it's also reasonable to believe that the TV revenue will get back to the previous level or perhaps even higher in 2-3 years as the new distribution model takes shape. I also would not be surprised if someone like Amazon or Apple steps in relatively soon.
  6. Major League Ready
    Do you have information we are not aware of? Has something with substantive information been published that illustrates how that revenue will be replaced or are you just making an assumption with nothing to support it?
  7. Major League Ready
    A 1 year $20M deal would look a lot better with a 2nd year team option.
  8. Major League Ready
    They won't need the money if they acquire pitching the way Tampa has acquired pitching. Glasnow had not yet produced a 1 WAR season when Tampa acquired him and Eflin cost 40M over 3 years.
  9. Major League Ready
    The payroll is $104M without Polanco and $98M without Polanco and Farmer. It will not be necessary to trade both players and Kepler is not going anywhere unless they get an offer they can't refuse. If Polanco is the only one traded, they will still have $36M to spend if they get to the high end of the estimate $140M. They were not going after Bellinger even with $150M budget and there is very little in the form of big RH bats available in free agency that fit this roster. They don't have to trade any of Kepler / Polanco and Farmer. However, they could make payroll room for a significant SP signing by moving one of them. Polanco is the most likely of the three because the platoon of Julien / Farmer is better than having Polanco at 2B and Lewis is a much better option at 3B.
  10. Major League Ready
    Are we really going to hear the "if they don't spend big we will lose 90+ games" BS again this off-season. Our top 6 position players by WAR made a total of $12M. Correa and Buxton produced under 2 WAR for $48M.
  11. Major League Ready
    There is plenty of time for the Correa signing to produce. However, at this point IDK that Correa saves anything. 33M for 1.1 WAR is an F.
  12. Major League Ready
    Whaaaaat? This is a very deep class. What about Montgomery / Nola / Rodriquez and the two Japanese players plus Stroman also opted out and is now a FA.
  13. Major League Ready
    Gray was 28 when he was struggling in NY and he bounced back. Giolitto remains to be seen. Not my first choice but I would not be surprised to see Giolitto bounce back in a big way.
  14. Major League Ready
    Thanks. That leaves room to upgrade from Bader to Kiermaier and add a RP. However, I am not convinced they will spend $150M. wish we had a better idea how much the TV revenue they will be able to replace, especially long-term, You have to believe they would be more apt to take it in the shorts this year if these changes provide an opportunity to grow revenue long-term.
  15. Major League Ready
    Bellinger is great but here is the thing ... There are 7 really good SPs plus Ohtani and 1 (Bellinger) truly impactful hitter in this FA class. I think Bellinger lands a crazy deal. It could be one of those deals that hurts the team for several years and landing Bellinger seems even more improbable than the twins doing what it takes to land a top SP.
  16. Major League Ready
    If they can get a top SP, I believe they will move Polanco for the payroll space. I doubt they get an established SP. If they can get a good RP that fits in easy enough as would a RH OFer. However, I would be they would take a good prospect package if they need the payroll space which will be just fine by me because it means they landed a top pitcher.
  17. Major League Ready
    I meant to substitute someone else for Larnach. The reason I went with Bader is his career OPS against LHP is 823. I was pondering what to do with that final bench spot and simply forgot to make the change. What if Buxton can actually play the OF? If that happened, you could go a few different ways with that last bench spot. My dream scenario is Lee or Severino mash at AAA and get brought up before June 1. That roster looks really deep if that happens and we still should have hope Miranda finds it. I would like to see them stretch the budget a little more and get a solid LH RP and as Mike pointed out it probably makes more sense to keep Varland stretched out in AAA.
  18. Major League Ready
    1st choice Montgomery / 2nd Choice Rodriguez / 3rd Choice Sunny Gray, I would go with Kiermaier a little over budget or even shed Farmer for Kiermaier. Polanco is traded for the payroll space. C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget
  19. Major League Ready
    C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader or MAT ($7M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 2.08% under budget
  20. Major League Ready
    C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Edouard Julien ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Utility / Harrison Bader ($7000000M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) SP5: Jordan Montgomery ($24M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 100.00% over budget
  21. Major League Ready
    Josh Bell was a pretty significant add but he was below league average. Now that he was traded, they only project at $90M for payroll so it's all together possible they spend some money on a bat or two. If the Twins can spend $150, Cleveland should be able to spend in the neighborhood of $120M. One big bat would be pretty impactful for them.
  22. Major League Ready
    Let's just drop it. . You are speaking in vague generalities about a very specific measure. You are not willing to give an example as I have which shows your position is flawed. Show me where the assumptions used or wrong instead of just ignoring it and continuing with rhetoric And no, they don't go into a deal assuming they are getting nothing for 5 years. They assume it will decline.
  23. Major League Ready
    Now we are exactly aligned. I am one who has documented the failures of free agent pitchers but replacing Gray has to be job one and I would prefer to do that free agency. I don't want to give up our premium prospects which is what it would take in trade. Of course, there are only a handful of guys we want and lots of teams with more money wanting to sign them so there might not be a need to clear the salary but the hope they are able to fill these holes with guys that are good enough that money becomes an issue.
  24. Major League Ready
    Not that math. Did you check to see if the numbers made any sense as I did in the example I gave. You are making a claim that teams assume declining performance. I provided a reasonable model that disproves your theory that teams expect this to result in paying these players $8M per WAR. The assumptions were very straight forward. Do you disagree with the assumptions or are you just ignoring anything that does not align with your narrative? Do you think they are assuming these players are going to produce next to nothing after the half-way through the contract.
  25. Major League Ready
    Where we drifted was I don't see it as Farmer vs Polanco but the discussion followed that path. I might move Farmer too. One of them probably needs to go. I see it as Polanco in a bench role reducing his overall value vs the players that take up that slack PLUS $10.5M. If I get a decent (not plus/plus) return for Polanco. I am moving him and spending the $10.5M elsewhere, probably on pitching. However, I am under the impression that money will be an issue this year and that's an unknown. I also think he brings a decent return but I am with you in that is very hard to predict given his injury history and lack of positional flexibility.
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