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It's so hard to say with BP guys so I am glad we have room for now to take another look at these guys. They can stay on the 40-man until we need room. Who knows ... maybe Winder can tweak his delivery at Driveline as JMlease1 suggested and Sands does have great movement on his slider. He just has to learn how to avoid the long ball. There are quite a few guys coming up behind them that hopefully become the story of 2024. If one or two of these guys breakout, great!
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This is why you keep a player. You build around them, not trade them.
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- edouard julien
- matt wallner
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I agree the timing is right but this absolute expectation that they can be traded for front of the rotation established pitching is misguided. Front of the rotation starters require a monster package. If Kepler is such a reach, why would anyone take him in trade for the most coveted asset in baseball? These guys are rarely traded and when they are it's generally a rebuilding team that would have no interest in Polanco or Kepler. They want Lewis or Jenkins and probably both. Seattle is in a very rare position being a club that could contend and has enough pitching to let one of their young guys go but that's one team and what if they share the sentiment of many posters here that Kepler will return to a league average player? What if they think Polanco is too much of an injury concern or another team offers they like better than Polanco. I really hope they can put together a deal with Seattle but a whole lot of other teams are going to be competing for a SP if they trade one.
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Listening to the shows on MLB radio, those guys pretty much all believe the Brewers are going to sell like hell!
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- sonny gray
- david festa
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We have 4 open spots and 2-3 of Polanco / Kepler / Vazquez / Farmer / Gordon / Miranda / Severino are very likely to be traded. It would not be surprising if a couple of the pitchers mentioned here were traded too. I don't see these guys getting bumped off the 40 man to make room for additions.
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I assume pretty much everyone here looks at team stats which tell the story without much analysis needed. Where the production came from is very clear so it's a bit astonishing to me that anyone can look at the facts supporting the position of keep the young guys in the minors where they belong and play the veterans. The season would have been quite dismal without the contributions of our younger players. Perhaps even more baffling is that success for teams in the bottom half of revenue is absolutely dependent upon developing young players. Why anyone would detest the most important aspect of building a mid market team just defies logic.
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I probably would not bet even money but <10% seems overly pessimistic. He was mediocre for the first two months and then hit at a 138 clip for the last 4 months to end up at 126. Did the shift get in his head? IDK but I just am not inclined to say there is basically no chance. I would put the odds of him breaking 120 at 40% so all I am saying is the completely writing him off is a little over the top.
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Kepler was important. The other 4 guys ranked 8th,9th,11th and 15th on the team measured by wRC+. The top 4 guys were Lewis, Wallner, Jeffers, and Julien. Why you would even mention Celestino, Refsnyder, Cave, and Blankenhorn is hard to understand.
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I think it's a really bad idea to make up a playoff lineup around appeasing players, especially one that was hitting as poorly as Vazquez. If Vazquez is going to be a problem because he is pouting, the better solution is to dump him for whatever they can get and get players who care about the team and winning.
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I have never suggested he can be replaced by Larnach. My position has been the return would have to be significant for Kepler to trade him because we are thin in OF depth. You avoided the entire point of the post. I was asking for your opinion as to the potential for him to post numbers similar to Hernandez or even Soler and what would that mean for an offer. If Kepler produces a wRC+ of 126 like he did this year, my guess is he would get at least 3/50M in free agency. There would be very little in him accepting a QO.
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Kepler's wRC+ was 138 after June 1 and 126 for the year. Of course he is also a plus defender. Is it conceivable he does not have a bad April-May next year and ends up at 126 wRC+ he produced in 2022 or even a little higher with a decent start? If so, what will he get for offers. Teoscar Hernandez is projected by MLB Trade rumors to get 4/$80M. Jorge Soler is projected at 3/45. Hernandez produced a wRC+ of 130 in 2022 and 105 last year. Soler was at 95 in 2022 and bounced back to 126 last season. Of course, he has no defensive value. If Kepler produced a wRC+ of 126 in 2023, you would have to believe his offer would be considerable higher than Soler at which point Kepler would be extremely likely to reject a QO? Is it really that certain Kepler could not play well enough to get a QO?
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Good call on Duvall. I had not thought of him. I see that he still played a lot of CF last year. Interesting possibility if he can still play a good CF at 35.
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The Hoskins move fits nicely. As you point out it makes Kirilloff available for the OF. I remain hopeful they can piece this together.
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The only relevant metric in measuring spending capacity is revenue. If you want to measure the Twins relative willingness to spend, compare their payroll with the teams closest in revenue or use percentage of revenue. When the twins can start paying for player salaries with a "market score", it will be relevant and as Jocko has pointed out this is a relatively meaningless metric. Do you understand that if an executive responsible for the bottom line based their budget on a market metric as opposed to revenue they would be fired in a New York second? You are also only seeing what you want to see in this metric. Do you really think Oakland should be spending more than Boston? Does Philly generate more revenue than Boston? Should the White Sox be spending the same as the Cubs. Why aren't the White Sox spending far more than the Twins. It's absolutely meaningless in terms of current spending. You are using it because it suits your narrative. If you are actually interested in a meaningful comparison, show us how the Twins payroll percentage of revenue compares to other teams. Of course, it's been done here before and the Twins are in line with the rest of the league.
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I don't know what to expect from Kepler either but I do know that we are thin in the OF. If we trade Vazquez as is now rumored and Polanco we are down to $102M, Would clearing $10M for Kepler make a difference. I guess like always it comes down to the return. I would not be on Kepler if a good return was available. I am hoping Polanco and Kepler go to Seattle for one of their young pitchers.
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If you have not seen, the Twins appear to be pretty aggressive about moving Vazquez. Christian Vazquez Trade
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A single player is making $30M a year and your argument is that they are raking it in at $10M a year? How many businesses do you know where the goal of the business is to make 1/3 of their highest paid employee? If this is the expectation, shouldn't it be expected of all the teams? Should all of the teams make $300M a year while the players make $4 billion? Piece together your entire argument and it's ludicrous. You don't expect them to spend more than they make which by your account has averaged $10M. Therefore, we are talking about spending another $10M which on average has produced 1.2 WAR a season. To go on and on about stretching the spending makes zero sense. It's simply not all that impactful. Drafting Cavaco instead of Carroll or Stot is impactful. If the Twins spent every dollar of profit we would still be at a significant disadvantage and here is where we differ. You point to team spending as the driving force to winning. I point to revenue which is the actual driving force here. The argument about spending to market potential is absolutely ridiculous. My god, if an executive in any 9 figure business suggested this approach they would be laughed out of the room. Baseball has a giant revenue disparity and that is the source of the problem. It's not changing so to get this bent out of shape is a waste of time. Keep in mind during the last CBA it was the owners tried to keep the disparity in check and the players stood firm on widening the gap.
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They did get $30M in BAM money for 23 and then we landed Correa late. I am guessing these two factors are why we saw the record payroll. They looked ahead to 24 knowing a lot of money would roll of and they could deal Kepler / Polanco or decline their options so there was no way they would get stuck without an out in 24.
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Yes, we are fans but you are far too smart and analytically inclined to allow bias to influence conclusions to this degree. Like I said earlier, Atlanta has at least a $250M revenue advantage. It takes very little financial acumen to conclude the two organizations will be run differently out of necessity. It's not that easy to misrepresent revenue for a baseball team. The sources are not complicated unless you think their is a conspiracy on attendance. The TV revenue is public record because it's paid out by public companies and the distribution model is public. Sponsorships are paid by public companies so those records are easy to verify.
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If the best thing for the business financially was for them to "eat it" in 2024 ... That's no doubt what they would do. You are insisting they take a hit because you assume it will destroy their momentum when you don't know what they will plan to do and none of us knows what will actually be done. This absurd conjecture would not be tolerated in an actual business environment. Spending $33M on Correa produced 1.1WAR and there are endless examples around the league. While spending is obvious advantageous, it's obviously no sure thing. I bet your employer would like it if you were willing to work for less than market rate. Players act in their financial best interests. Your expectation / insistence that a business does not is fanatical. BTW ... Any junior level financial analyst could construct a revenue estimate for the twins that was relatively accurate. IDK about Spotrac but Statista has a subscription service and that service is dependent upon accurate data. My former firm had a subscription and their numbers are pretty close to Spotrac. The whole I don't care about legit is just refusal to accept anything other than your insisted upon spending level.
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The thought of a QO next year had not occurred to me. Kepler had 2.4 WAR for the 2nd half of 2023. If he plays close to that level all year in 2024, he would get a very healthy offer in free agency and the QO would be declined. I am not predicting he produces 5 WAR next year but 3.5 or 4 would not be shocking at which point he gets a 3 year offer and the QO would be rejected. It's an interesting twist.
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We just don't have much for OF depth but selling high on a one-year assets for multi-year assets has a lot of upside. That said the return has to be good given our OF situation. If Seattle really valued Kepler as part of the return for one of their young pitchers that would be a great long-term move. Kepler and Polanco for Miller (they are not trading Kirby) would set us up very well for the next few years. This approach would allow them to go sign an OFer and good BP arm in free agency.
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The number used for payroll is almost always misrepresented in these conversations. The number used to divide against revenue should include benefits of around 11%. Many people even omit dead contracts or injured players. Corporations do not omit costs when they report or speak of expenses. Not only is it GAAP, it simply makes absolutely no sense to omit parts of total cost for any form of business analytics. Percentage of payroll = Active players + injured or released + Minor League Contracts + Benefits / Revenue. Spotrac provides these totals for current year estimates but for some reason does not include them in 2023 numbers. BTW… When discussing 2023 vs 2024 payroll I don’t recall anyone considering the fact the Twins got a $30M BAM payment last year. Obviously, this impacted 2023 spending but many ignore this in setting 2024 expectations. I want them to spend as much as possible but I don’t think the way in which that number is arrived at by fans is determined with all the facts nor is it determined in an unbiased way.
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The Braves have roughly double the revenue of the Minnesota Twins. So, no, the Twins can't run their organization the same way. Would you "operate" the same way with half or double your current income? Obviously, I share in your desire for the team to generate more income. However, I expect them to generate that income before they spend it.
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I am asking for the link to the source that provides market scores. You maintain this shows what the twins spending. I believe what I will find is that it shows market potential but does this source suggest spending should be linked in anyway to this market score. IDK about the market potential especially given the current climate for broadcast revenues. It would generally take my firm a month just to gather information and conducting interviews to gain the base knowledge to begin to put together this type of assessment so I think you are assuming a great deal to think you are prepared to project what this market can produce at this given moment.
