Jump to content
Join us for draft day two conversation, click here! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Major League Ready

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,752

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    26

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Lee and Jenkins are not the type of players I want to trade for 3 years of Duran. I liked it much better when we traded 2 months of an above average infielder for 6+ years of Duran.
  2. Major League Ready
    IDK if this was sarcastic but a corner OFer that is well above average defensively is not as valuable as a well above average hitter. This is very clear in free agency or in how teams move prospects that can hit around defensively. They find a defensive spot for guys that can hit. Up the middle defenders are a different story,
  3. Major League Ready
    The approach you are taking to value is an interesting twist to how we would normally value assets. That said, I think the twins are counting on getting far more value from Paddack than Festa or Raya who you have 7 places ahead of him. This could make sense if it's a long-term look instead of this year but that get's back to a more traditional value proposition.
  4. Major League Ready
    Solano's career wRC+ is 97 against LHP and RH pitching. They have several LH hitters with significant splits. So, I think if they pick-up a RH bench bat it will be someone that is stronger against LHP especially the way Rocco likes to play matchups. This need would be even greater if they trade farmer.
  5. Major League Ready
    Solano won't cost enough for money to be an issue. Upside, age, existing options, and defensive deficiency are all reasons why they should not invest a roster spot in Solano.
  6. Major League Ready
    I believe the key to this puzzle is if Polanco or Polanco plus prospects can facilitate a trade for a pitcher they want. The FO has demonstrated their MO is to trade from depth and they have a lot of young guys that can fill Polanco’s role. We should expect them to pursue that avenue first. They just can’t do it yet because the trade market for pitching is still in limbo waiting for Snell, Montgomery and Imanaga to sign.
  7. Major League Ready
    Taylor is a good option. A big part of this is the medical report on Buxton. Do they have sufficient cause to believe he will be back in CF. If so, Bader hits LHP much better than MAT so Buxton / Bader are the better platoon. You are also only considering last year and you are doing so using one measure of WAR. fWAR has them as them at 1.0 and 1.7 respectively. Of course, this is a cumulative stat and MAT played 31 more games. This was Bader's worst year of his career and this was Taylor's best year since 2017. I would put a little more weight on the previous year but I would also consider career numbers and age with MAT being 4 years older.
  8. Major League Ready
    You don't if you are confident he can repeat that .750. What if it's more like the two previous years? (.624 & .651). This strategy would be betting Castro hits at 2023 levels. That would be great but I would not rely on this assumption. Martin could be called up if Castro reverts to career norms so at least there would be a potential fall-back position.
  9. Major League Ready
    We just don’t see this the same way. Obviously, SPs are only Left-handed 25-30% of the time but Rocco loves to plays match-ups. So, your 40-45 game scenario does not account for opportunities against LH relievers. That opportunity presents itself in three-quarters of the other games. Rocco could be very aggressive inserting someone like Bader knowing he will play great D until his next AB. If that AB is against a RHP, Rocco can pinch hit and play Castro or Gordon in CF. I also don’t see Gordon or Castro as being close to Bader defensively. He is going to be a plus defensively whenever he is in the game. You are also not placing any value to having this type of player on the bench as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. He could be used to get Buxton out of the game when the score is not close and pinch run late in games that are close. The best case scenario is Buxton plays 80+ games in CF and someone like Bader plays CF against LHP and Buxton is the DH. I just don’t see the value of a bench / platoon player as limited to games started by LHP in this case. He is good enough defensively that someone might pay him like an everyday player but that remains to be seen. BTW …. Farmer has almost identical splits and Bader has more defensive impact than Farmer.
  10. Major League Ready
    I agree he is not the answer if we are looking for someone to start 100 games. Neither is Castro or Gordon. I can see rolling with Martin if the available dollars are all allocated to pitching. There are not any great defensive CFers with a 120 wRC+ available. However, Bader could be a great role player and I think his contract will end up reflecting that role. Bader has a career .823 OPS against LHP. That's a good fit to platoon for this team and he is a terrific defender and base runner. Play him as much as possible against LHP. Use him as a pinch runner and late inning defensive sub. Bader had his worst offensive year last year and produced 1 fWAR in 98 games. MAT had his best offensive year in the past 5 years and had 1.7 fWAR in 129 games. The advantage of Bader is his splits against LH pitching. I realize you are not advocating MAT but everyone was quite happy with him last year. I guess it depends on if you think Bader is washed up at 29 or will he bounce back. Was he hurt? Is that why he only player 98 games. IDK what to make of him but there could be some serious upside in a player that would fit really well on this team given his ability to spell Buxton and to play against LHP.
  11. Major League Ready
    My guess is their desire to extend him will be influenced by how our pitching prospects fair this year. I suppose a lot of teams are in the same position but it seems like we have a whole bunch of guys right now who may or may not be MLB SPs. Varland / SWR / Canterino / Festa / Raya / Prelipp / Lewis / Culpepper / Mathews / Ohl / Hall. I did not mention Soto assuming he is 3-4 years out. I hope the prospects do so well they don't feel compelled to extend Paddack.
  12. Major League Ready
    I don't see much of a gain because we don't have corner OF depth. Wallner can play right but a lesser player fills a corner OF spot if Kepler plays center. The result is mediocre defense in CF and a mediocre corner OF bat taking Kepler's spot. There has to be a better solution.
  13. Major League Ready
    Lewis to CF would be even better.
  14. Major League Ready
    Wow! That is eye opening.
  15. Major League Ready
    MLB trade rumors had him at 2/20. I think it depends on how much salary they clear with Polanco and/or Vasquez / Farmer and Kepler. The negotiations with Bally could come into play as well. If the budget is available, the only better use of any available funds is pitching. They could redistribute Polanco's money to Bader and then push the budget to $135M or so for a SP. I could see Farmer being traded as well if they land a SP and need to clear payroll space to make the pitching addition. Their relative confidence or lack thereof among the internal candidate might ultimately determine their interest in Bader or similar players.
  16. Major League Ready
    I hear ya but there is much we don't know. Just because Bally's is making a push does not mean the twins have to go with them but why not listen to what they have to say. Maybe the negotiations include an update to their app for example. What if it means $20M more than the next best alternative? Going with Bally for a year might fit into a bigger picture plan the league is developing. Who knows? I am just saying let's see how it shakes out before we conclude the merits of whatever they are doing.
  17. Major League Ready
    Why not just sign Harrison Bader instead of trading? He is an even better defender and has the same type of L/R splits.
  18. Major League Ready
    Do you have information the rest of us don't have? How do you know Bally's is not offering the same amount as last year which would be more than the team was counting on which would probably mean spending would not go down as much as anticiapted. It would also give the Twins and MLB a year to develop a better distribution model. I don't think we have enough information to have an opinion on the relative merits of a one-year deal with Bally's so why be frustrated?
  19. Major League Ready
    1&2 are very important to the next 5 years so yes, huge! I am going to be greedy with #3 and expand the wish to us seeing multiple prospects step up. #4 is big for the entire game not just the Twins. It's time to make baseball more accessible. The bonus would be if the new distribution model helps the small and mid-market teams close the revenue gap just a little. My fear is that a new model could be even more beneficial to large market teams.
  20. Major League Ready
    I didn't know the story. Definitely unique circumstances. He is a really interesting possibility. Have there been rumors of him being shopped?
  21. Major League Ready
    This one was not on my radar. He was great his rookie season. Then, mediocre last year. I don't rule out guys because they are late bloomers but this guy was 30 before he made the show. I think I would rather give Severino a shot.
  22. Major League Ready
    Is there a rule that rookies who play well can't get better in their 2nd year? I know it's quite possible the league adjusts but it's also possible they get even better. Maybe Wallner does adapt a better 2 strike approach. Lewis just maintaining would be a boost if he plays a full season.
  23. Major League Ready
    I understand your point to be that basically the addition of Gray did nothing for us in year 1 and the team was good not great in the 2nd year so the overall impact is modest. However, when a player performs well there are a lot of fans who don't care much about the cost. Fans love immediate gratification. The tone here sways heavily toward the immediate like it did last year when most insisted we push in our chips because the teams was in 1st play. Never mind it was not a very good team that had numerous injuries. If this "investment" was measured as we would any other investment, we would measure the overall return. Gray's return was good for 1 year. If another investment was good over the course of 6 1/2 years it would return far more than Gray. In real life, we chose this investment every time. Not so for many fans when it comes to trades. Fans would not like me running a team because I would make decisions based on the overall return. Of course, as you pointed out. The return on Petty might be nothing or a perineal all-star. There is a lower minimum return with Petty. There is also the potential for a far greater return with Petty which I believe is your point.
  24. Major League Ready
    You are contradicting yourself. You have concluded revenue is a great indicator or success. Then, you conclude that the practices of the most successful small market teams have led to lower attendance and reduced revenue. This is contradictory. Is it not? If you think I am treating revenue as an independent variable, you are not understand the basic purpose of the exercise. I am sure you agree that it does not make sense to evaluate the acquisition methods of teams with grouping them in terms of revenue potential. In other words, it would be expected for markets with 2X the revenue potential to utilize different acquisition and retention practices. When we do this, the data for acquisition methods is crystal clear for anyone that cares to look. I would bet the vast majority never bother to look because they would prefer to believe whatever form of logics supports their predisposed opinion. The basic flaw in your position (IMO) is that a market like LA or NY simply has far greater capacity to produce income. The twins can win 100 games every year and retaion every player and they are still going to produce half the revenue of the top markets. IDK if continuity of roster is more important to revenue production than winning but I doubt it. What I know without a shadow of doubt is that over the last 20 years, trading for prospects has had far more impact on winning than trading for established players. Is your argument really revenue? Do you care more about revenue than winning? You are opposing hard fact because you would prefer practices that are not supported by the facts. I have approached this in a completely unbiased way. I wondered based on posts I saw here what acquisition method was most effective. I took the time to look at most of the small and mid market playoff teams for the last 20 years because I wanted to know fact vs opinion. I am simply reporting what has happened. In other words, what has been most effective and the facts are very clear.
  25. Major League Ready
    Actually, there were three teams outside the top 10 in revenue that won the WS in the early 2000s. In the past 18 years since that period, only one team in that revenue segment has won the WS. Therefore, the odds are not 18:1. There are 20 teams outside the top 10. Therefore, the odds of one of those 20 teams winning is 20X18 or once every 360 years. Those teams are making more money for the small market teams and they are making a lot more money for the players. Who is going to initiate change that diminishes the income of the teams and the players?
×
×
  • Create New...