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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I think you need put DeSclafani’s past performance in context He was injured all of 2022 and pitchers quite often don’t perform at full potential the first year back from a major injury. He produced 3 fWAR / 4.3 bWAR in 2021 and ranked 41st in terms of WAR in 2021. That’s far from a 5 and he had 4 seasons with an ERA from 3.17-4.05. I think we would be just fine in he produced an ERA of 4.00 this year. Where Varland is concerned, He might be as likely to perform as DeSclafani but starting DeSclafani and putting Varland in the pen or even starting him in STP improves the team. Varland either improves the BP or gives us much needed pitching depth.
  2. Major League Ready
    For starters, you are not even responding to what I posted, and this is just petty. You find an irrelevant aspect rather than focus on the metritis aspect of the trade or you don't understand the merit. I said history will support the assertion that this type of trade is how bottom half teams have succeeded. You have focused only on the major league talent, ignored, the prospects, and ignored the fact they added major league on a budget. The fact that the major league talent is older is not relevant. The relevant aspects of the strategy they employed are that they .... Traded from excess. Traded a player with two years of control who had provided a great deal of value. Received what would project to be far more total value than he could provide. (See ESPN and Fangraphs) They also got some shorter-term assets in positions of need making up for present value lost. Made room for a top prospect (Lee) Got a top 100 prospect Got another decent prospect with upside. Added SP for $4M that is the rough equivalent of SPs that signed for 3X that amount. Traded a player whose trade value was higher than keeping him because he had been replaced as a starter. This kind of creativity in acquiring major talent and getting good future value is exactly how teams in the bottom half of revenue construct a successful roster. There is none so blind as those who will not see and you just don't want to see.
  3. Major League Ready
    Which measure of defensive WAR are you using?
  4. Major League Ready
    Thanks Mike! Good to see another objective opinion. ESPN had a similar take and now Fangraphs. This quote makes their position quite clear. "The Twins just get a straight A" and I’m giving the Mariners a standalone C- but a contingent B+. They traded a lot to get Polanco" It might dampen the negative comments here, but I doubt it will change people's minds.
  5. Major League Ready
    Clearly, you have it figured out. The FO is incompetent. The people at ESP who gave the twins a much better grade than the mariners are also clueless. I will take solace in knowing my opinion is shared by ESPN and the front office, all of the writers who were of the opinion that trading Polanco was the obvious move for the Twins. Fangraphs has now chimed in as well. Do you want to soften your position?
  6. Major League Ready
    They can sign JD or Belt or Soler and get a better DH. They would also be playing the inferior player any game he starts over Lewis or Julien vs RHP or Farmer against LHP and they probably give up nothing with Castro vs RHP given his superior defense and base running. So, electing to play him anytime Lewis / Julien are healthy is poor management. Making room for Lee also enters into the equation but the equation favors trading him even if Lee was not in the picture. The net of it is that Polanco's salary could pay for a DH, we get a good RP with 3 years of control and a decent SP for $4M plus a top 100 prospect and another fairly decent pitching prospect. This type of roster management is by far the most effective way for a team in the bottom half of revenue to sustain success and history supports this assertion.
  7. Major League Ready
    I am not sure if you are serious. They would have never traded him if this was remotely true. Lewis plays 140+ games if he is healthy. Julien starts against every RHP if he is healthy and Farmer is the better replacement against LHP. The opportunity for him to start was minimal because we lose nothing if Julien and Lewis are healthy. That's why they traded him. Several national writers said the same thing long before they traded him so are they wrong as well as the FO?
  8. Major League Ready
    You never answered my question. How many starts does Polanco get if Lewis and Julien are healthy, given Farmer is the better option against LHP? Injury depth should be considered but is depth a bigger problem in SP or 2B?
  9. Major League Ready
    How many games would Polanco have started if Julien and Lewis are healthy? Farmer is a considerably better option on both sides of the ball against LHP so if the days off for Julien are against LHP we gain by giving farmer those starts. Polanco is only the two-hole hitter of Julien or Lewis are injured. We also have Castro who had an 801 OPS vs RHP while Polanco was slightly better at .823. Of course, Castro adds better defense and base running. It's a reasonable argument to say the twins are better with Farmer than Polanco. Add a good RP and SP depth and it's reasonable to say this roster construction will yield better results, especially if they add another RH bat or SP as part of the overall plan.
  10. Major League Ready
    You have a point. There is no doubt that the best chances of winning the WS would be trade every good prospect we have. Push all the chips in and the odds of winning the WS no doubt goes up if you have the core in place where these additions push the team over the top. if we were lucky, we might get to close to level of Atlanta and LA but I doubt it. The odds of being really horrible for a very long time are considerably higher than winning the WS with this approach. Where KC is concerned. Trading for established players was a very small part of building that championship team. Shields was gone by the time they won the WS. The only piece that KC that impacted their WS win was Wade Davis and that was a very fortunate side effect of the Shields trade. By far more important trade was when they traded away a very good established player (Greinke) for prospects, Cain and Escobar. That team was good because they collected very high draft picks for several years as a result of absolutely sucking. So, to say they won the WS because they traded away top prospects is a real stretch. I watch 120 games/year. The choice between increasing the odds of winning a World Series and watching a good team vs a horrible team for a decade or two is not even remotely close for me. Fans are going to differ on this choice and that's fine, but I don't want to watch a crappy team year after year.
  11. Major League Ready
    So, in other words, let's ignore the facts of how teams have been successful because it does not fit your opinion of how to be successful. What you are telling me is that you are not interested in the hard evidence for what has worked for every 90 win team in the bottom half of revenue in the last 25 years. After listening to people repeatedly take your position. I wanted to know if this position held by so many would align with history / actual results. So, I took the time to gather the data to determine how successful teams in the bottom half of revenue acquired the best players on their rosters over the past 20 years. I have posted that factual information more than once but as you said here is no convincing you or anyone else with the facts when you are unwilling to accept hard evidence. I don't know if that should be labeled fanatical but it's certainly not an informed position.
  12. Major League Ready
    They give them whatever it takes philosophy in fanatical. The proof is very clear if you would be willing to look at how TBR and the Guardians or As have outperformed bottom half revenue teams over the past 25 years. This has become common practice for the best teams and FO people who want to keep their job manage assets based on total return as opposed to give whatever it takes to be better right now. Anyone can push chips in to be better short term. That requires very little management acumen.
  13. Major League Ready
    Montas and Flaherty signed for $16M and 14M. Lance Lynn got $11M. Paxton was a little better but he was horrible the prior two years. DeSclafani was quite good before the injuries. His health is key here and we don't have as much information as the people making these decisions.
  14. Major League Ready
    You could also argue that the combination of Farmer / Julien is more valuable than Polanco / Julien. Polanco and Farmer were not both going to be on this roster. Farmer is a far better hitter than Polanco against LHP so did they really lose anything?
  15. Major League Ready
    OK. Then you just disagree with the guys getting paid to make this decision. Fans focus on right now. The same type of logic was used at the 2022 deadline. We had to go for it because we are in 1st place really hurt this team right now. That team was not worthy of that type of investment and here were are in 2023 where those players that were traded would fit very nicely on this team. Putting so much weight on immediate return is a very poor asset management practice. (See Tampa Bay Rays or any finance textbook) and it's an absolutely horrible way to run a business. It's OK to have a fanatical point of view but you're going to be disappointed quite often if you expect the people responsible for the long-term health of the business to follow your basis for making decisions.
  16. Major League Ready
    Thanks for catching that. Farmer is obviously the better defender.
  17. Major League Ready
    Everyone seems to ignore Polanco was not going to be a starter on this team. Julien is the primary 2B but he will be platooned. Farmer is actually the better hitter against LHP. His wRC+ is 25 points higher than Polanco. In a back-up role at least half of the ABs should come against LHP. Framer is the better defender at 2B and by far the better defender at 3B. They also have Castro who hit RHP as well as Polanco last year. If we didn't have Lewis / Julien / Castro, I might agree losing Polanco would be a significant net loss. However, the combination of Julien / Lewis / Farmer and Castro is no worse than if Polanco was inserted given the reality Polanco is not a starter with this roster. Then, add 3 years of a solid RP and SP depth, and I think the team is better. Now, add a top 100 prospect and you have the reason why neutral parties like ESPN are grading this trade in favor of the Twins. Also, DJL44 is absolutely right about how the league is valuing pitching depth / guys like DeSclafani. He has value here or perhaps in another trade, especially given Seattle and SFG are paying most of his salary.
  18. Major League Ready
    The only problem is that you are ASSUMING Seatle was willing to give up the most coveted asset in baseball for something less than an absolute haul. You want the highly coveted asset very badly. Yet you assume Seattle was willing to give it up. There is no doubt the twins were to get their young pitching. It didn't happen so it's not that tough to read between the lines.
  19. Major League Ready
    It's pretty simple ... As much as we wanted their young pitching, they just as badly did not want to give it up. There are more options to get hitting than there are options to get good young pitching. They didn't need to give it up to get a Polanco type of player so they held their ground. As fans we often think deals that we want could have been made but the basis of our desire is the same basis for them not accepting such a trade. Also, I think the money is being a bit overlooked here. Invest that $10M we saved plus a decent RP with 3 years of control and SP depth is not bad. The overall impact on this year's team is at least neutral provided they spend the $10M. Throw in a top 100 prospect and a flyer (Bowen) and I think we did pretty decent for a guy who was not going to be a starter on this team.
  20. Major League Ready
    I think most people here would put a pretty high value on Walker Jenkins and he has a grand total of 56 PAs in A ball.
  21. Major League Ready
    B: Castro C: Martin D: Gordon / Thompson / Keirsey
  22. Major League Ready
    What does this have to do with your claim? They extended both of these players so using them as an argument to support your claim that they trade 2nd year arbitration players because of salary is simply ridiculous. You are also making this out to be perpetual when it's one year because of a never to be repeated problem with their TV contract. BTW .... Arizona's payroll last year was $119M with $18M in sunk cost to Bumgarner. The 101 win Orioles were at $71M. More importantly, the twins will always be at a huge revenue disadvantage. The only way they can win at $120M or $150M is to develop prospects. History is crystal clear if you bother to look at how teams built successful teams with payrolls at $150M or less by today's levels. Roughly 80% of the highest contributing players were draft or acquired before becoming established MLers. They were successful acquiring more modest cost free agents like Nelson Cruz or last year Zach Effrin is a good example. Trades for established players had a very small role. Focusing on this as intently as you have would suggest you have never actually looked at how successful teams were built for under $150M.
  23. Major League Ready
    Keirsey was 26 at AAA last year and put up a wRC+ 7% below league average. He was also below average in 2021 and 2022. He is not high on the depth chart. Martin is next. Then, Gordon or Castro and Erod is not that far off. They would likely put Erod in CF before Keirsey.
  24. Major League Ready
    And when have they done this with the exception of Arraez which was done for very good reason. The other one that comes to mind is Berrios who most definitely was not traded because of his 2nd year arbitration cost.
  25. Major League Ready
    I guess I could have or should have said "Lee who's experience was not exactly parallel or that their aggregate AA/AAA numbers are not all that far apart. However, in context, I was simply saying I am not so sure he has to be a "completely different" player as suggested in an earlier post. The point was meant to be on one hand we have a highly touted prospect that most people are very sure will make it. On the other hand, we have a 1st round pick with a relatively similar AA and AAA performance who needs to be a "completely different player" and who everyone has written him off after 241 PAs in the majors. Your response in defense of Lee only serves to support my point which was not they are equal prospects but that they are being seen in drastic contrast. BTW ... Lee's OPS for AA/AAA combined is .807. Thompson had a bad year in 2023 but during his time at Texas that I referenced he had a combined AA/AAA OPS of .815. Now, I certainly don't think Bubba has anywhere near the prospect status of Lee but I also don't think Thompson is the lost cause as portrayed by some posters here. As I said, nice low risk / no cost shot at acquiring a contributor for nothing.
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