Major League Ready

Let's use your mid-point of $210M in Payroll. Benefits and taxes are at least another $20M so $230M. Plus, $15M in draft bonuses (Domestic & International) That's $245M and the bottom teams generate around $240M. Of course, they also have to pay for hundreds of employees and all the operating costs associated with a MLB team. Therefore, a $210M floor is not even remotely feasible. I hate the disparity but it's simply not financially to set the floor high enough to offset the ceiling in terms of overall dollars paid to players. The top revenue teams produce 250% of the revenue of top teams. You can't raise the floor enough to reduce that gap. That's why the players were focused on increasing the luxury tax threshold. Had the owners insisted on the modest increase in the tax threshold they originally proposed, the players likely would have gone on strike and the owners would have been crucified by MLB fans. The disparity is not on the owners. They would gladly reduce the Luxury tax threshold and increase penalties. However, that would take a lot of money out of players pockets, That's why it won't happen without a work stoppage.

I agree we should applaud the team and the player. However, how many players do you suppose would be willing to accept this type of "creative approach". Ohtani makes $45M/ year in endorsements. Plus, the Twins also are never going to be against the luxury tax threshold so it seems unrealistic to ask why the Twins are not getting deals like this done. We will have to wait and see what they do this year but they did quite well in modest costs deals like MAT, Solano, Pagan, and Stewart. The big deals most people here were adamant about being needed (Correa & Mahle) have not been so good. They also got criticized for Pagan and Paddack and that deal is looking pretty good.

To add to your point, the Rangers pitching was suspect until the deadline. I also agree with your point about spending $14m on Burnes plus the trade capital for a 1 year rental is not happening.

The optimistic view reveals a fair amount of upside. A resurgence from Buxton and Correa would make this team better than most of us are counting on. We also only got 239 PAs from Lewis. An entire season with Lewis raises the bar too. The other guy that has unrealized ceiling is Kirilloff. I just get the sense there is a beast ready to emerge. We also won't have the constant K machine (Gallo) in the lineup and Vazquez can't be as bad as last year either if he is still here. That's my upside take on the situation.

I only saw him play CF in a handful of games but he looked pretty good. I thought he was a little better coming in as opposed to going back but it was a SSS.

I read this and thought ... This is spot on. After thinking about it. The player's dictate this particular form of intrigue for MLB. All the media outlets would be more than willing to promote baseball in this way. So, it really is up to the players where this sort of publicity and promotion is concerned. My opinion sways toward that this is the players right and we should respect their choice. We just need to understand that players making hundreds of millions are going to make self-centered choices. There was absolutely no benefit to Ohtani in providing access and as you point out probably a PR nightmare. Players don't think long-term about the league. The tone of the last CBA was clearly about "getting mine". The luxury tax and revenue sharing illustrated they are focused on the immediate terms and putting the most money in their pockets while the forced an increase in revenue disparity. Expecting anything else from them would be naive. Now, the league could have and perhaps approached Ohtani with some form of promotion that would have negated any PR concerns. However, I doubt that a guy who released the information himself was going along with any form of MLB promotion.

Without a medical report and a doctor to interpret the results, I have no idea what to expect from Correa or Buxton. However, I know two things ... The prospect of either or both rebounding is pretty darn exciting, and the optimistic point of view is more fun.

Probably recency bias on my part. I thought his D looked pretty good late in the season but now that you mention it, I do recall some poor play early in the season.

He was a little below average for the first half with a wRC+ of 88. In comparison, Correa was at 92 and Kyle Farmer who nobody is complaining about was 85. I think it comes down to if they can get someone to believe he has found something sustainable. If so, the return would be higher than Verdugo and perhaps something the Twins would accept. My guess is that they would rather move Polanco and Vazquez, in that order.

Fangraphs actually has him as slightly below average defensively which does not match what I thought I saw on the field.

Not everyone is saying this. A few people saw him struggle at first and have chosen to completely ignored that he settled in and was pretty average at 2B. The only way he gets traded is for a really good SP with 3 or more years of control.

I liked the way you summed this up Doc. Pitching should be the first priority. How that goes down will dictate what they have to spend elsewhere. It makes a big difference if they trade for a guy on a prearb contract or Tyler Glasnow. I don't think Glasnow is going to happen but the point remains the same. I don't see Kiermeir signing as a 4th OFer. He is going to sign where he continues to be a primary player. If they really believe Buxton's knee will be fine, I could see Harrison Bader. Great late inning defensive substitution and he has a career .821 OPS against LHP so he could start against LHP or pinch hit late in games. He will be much more affordable.

It's nice to be able to load up against LH pitching but an OFer would be a better fit for this roster. We also need to consider that Severino and Miranda are at AAA. I understand neither of them is a sure thing but why trade away assets while blocking them.

Good player but this makes very little sense to me unless Lewis is moving to the OF. Why would we trade for someone who plays a position where we have considerable depth? If they are giving up prime trade assets, it should be for pitching.

There are 4 open spots on the 40 man. I believe we are going to see 3-4 pitchers added and a couple position players get traded. So, the balance is probably going to shift. Could we see a rule 5 player drafted on Thursday. I kind of doubt it but so be it if a good prospect is available.

Perfectly reasonable take despite the persnickety response you got. Looking at it in a slightly different way, we could say they have 5 guys for sure. (Duran / Jax / Stewart / Thielbar / Funderburk) Varland probably goes to the BP if they are able to land a quality SP and a depth guy. I know Alcala has not been able to say healthy, but he is a pretty decent middle inning reliever that us optimists can hope finally has a healthy season. I also believe Sands has what it takes to stick. Canterino is a wild card. That leaves the other guys for depth. Not ideal but not horrible. My guess is they will look for the next Brock Stewart and the allocation of funds to the BP will be a byproduct of what they are able to do on the starting pitching side.

They had $30M in BAM money that has been largely neglected in this conversation. They also know they had the flexibility to trade Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer or decline their options. In Farmer's case non-tender. Of course, they also signed Gallo to a 1 year deal plus Gray and few others were in the final year of their contracts. In short, they spent based on their capacity last year knowing they could adjust to this year's capacity as that was determined.

Their history certainly supports your point. Their standard practice is to trade established vets for guys in the high minors or players that have started their major league careers but have not established themselves to any great degree. I would hope Falvey learned from his tenure in Cleveland to not trade good assets for guys with one year of control. I am very helpful Seattle loves Polanco and/or Kepler as part of a package for one of their young SPs.

Do you understand that hitting is also important? Why would you only show the value of fielding. You are obsessed with defense to the point where you can't or won't see the whole picture. The last value in this chart is total WAR. The real irony is you point to the importance of Solano when he is at best equivalent to Julien in field and according to Fangraphs, worse but you support him because he is an older player. You need to look around the league. 1 Edouard Julien MIN 109 408 16 60 37 3 15.7% 31.4% .195 .371 .263 .381 .459 .366 .348 136 0.3 17.9 -3.8 2.8 2 Ryan Jeffers MIN 96 335 14 46 43 3 9.9% 27.8% .213 .359 .276 .369 .490 .369 .334 138 -1.8 13.4 2.3 2.7 3 Max Kepler MIN 130 491 24 72 66 1 9.2% 21.6% .224 .288 .260 .332 .484 .348 .363 124 -3.5 10.5 -0.8 2.6 4 Willi Castro MIN 124 409 9 60 34 33 8.3% 24.2% .154 .328 .257 .339 .411 .327 .306 109 6.4 10.9 0.4 2.5 5 Royce Lewis MIN 58 239 15 36 52 6 8.4% 23.0% .240 .354 .309 .372 .548 .393 .349 155 0.1 15.7 0.5 2.4 6 Matt Wallner MIN 76 254 14 42 41 2 11.0% 31.5% .258 .328 .249 .370 .507 .377 .376 144 1.6 14.8 -4.5 1.9 7 Michael A. Taylor MIN 129 388 21 48 51 13 6.7% 33.5% .223 .278 .220 .278 .442 .308 .311 96 2.3 0.2 3.4 1.7 8 Kyle Farmer MIN 120 369 11 49 46 2 6.2% 23.3% .152 .311 .256 .317 .408 .316 .312 101 0.5 1.0 3.0 1.6 9 Jorge Polanco MIN 80 343 14 38 48 4 10.5% 25.7% .199 .310 .255 .335 .454 .340 .351 118 1.7 9.1 -5.5 1.5 10 Donovan Solano MIN 134 450 5 43 38 0 8.9% 22.2% .109 .366 .282 .369 .391 .338 .349 116 -2.7 6.2 -9.1 1.2 11 Carlos Correa MIN 135 580 18 60 65 0 10.2% 22.6% .169 .272 .230 .312 .399 .309 .329 96 -9.2 -11.8 3.5 1.1 12 Christian Vázquez MIN 102 355 6 34 32 1 7.0% 23.1% .095 .279 .223 .280 .318 .264 .265 65 -4.4 -19.1 16.6 1.0 13 Alex Kirilloff MIN 88 319 11 35 41 1 8.8% 25.1% .174 .337 .270 .348 .445 .343 .333 120 0.8 8.4 -11.2 0.8 14 Joey Gallo MIN 111 332 21 39 40 1 14.5% 42.8% .262 .244 .177 .301 .440 .320 .302 104 1.0 2.5 -6.5 0.7 15 Byron Buxton MIN 85 347 17 49 42 9 10.1% 31.4% .230 .253 .207 .294 .438 .311 .320 98 4.8 4.0 -8.6 0.7

These 3 players are important but this team turning into a true contender will depend on a number of other things going right ... 1) Finding additions SP depth including another well above average SP 2) The BP - Does Stewart remaining effective / Thielbar defy aging / Alcala finally staying healthy / Adding depth 3) Wallner / Kirilloff stepping up, staying healthy and maturing as players. 4) Piecing together a complimentary bench. The pieces fit together well last year. 5) The next wave of young players contributing and giving a similar boost to last year. We need a couple of Martin / Severino / Camargo on the position side and one or two of the young pitchers with question marks (Raya / Canterino / Festa / Balazovic / Winder) stepping up would be big. 6) Trades that fill holes and compliment the roster. 7) Health.

Julien and Jeffers were #1 and #2 on the team in WAR so your statement makes absolutely no sense. Also Julien's defense has improved significantly on defense. Do you watch the games? He was not a liability at the end of the season. He improved enough that his OAA was 0 for the year after starting odd negatively. Players can improve defensively. You repeatedly prove that once you form an opinion about a player on defense they can't improve and they are worthless.

The Twins won the division by 9 games. Solano and farmer combined for 2.8 WAR so this is a huge stretch. They were not critical to making the playoffs and they won't be that hard to replace.

Maeda will turn 36 a couple weeks after the season starts. It's a rare thing for SPs to dominate at age 36. I hope the Twins are looking for more ceiling over what he is likely to be as opposed to what he has been.

Every year people on this site panic when all of the team's needs have not been fulfilled by Dec 1. I think we can be very sure the FO is aware of the need created by the departure of Gray and Maeda. Does anyone really think they will do nothing and rely on internal options? The question is not if. It's how? Will they clear payroll space and sign someone or will they trade or will they do both.

I would guess that the FO views Lee as a considerably better prospect. I was just pointing out we might not be giving Severino his due. I think the only way they trade Lee is for a young / cost controller SP with 4+ years of control as would be the case with one of Seattle's young pitchers. No way should they trade him for 2 years of control. See Tyler Mahle.