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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    There has only been one small market team in the past 20 years to win a WS. Two if you count the Chicago White Sox as low revenue. They won it 19 years ago. The Royals. only had one free agent that contributed much and that was Edison Volquez who was on a 2/20M contract. 38% of their WAR was from drafted players and 32% from players that were acquired as prospects. They got good by being bad for a VERY long time and by trading their best player for two players who had made the ML level but had yet to produce a 1.5 WAR season. (Cain & Escobar) The three most successful low revenue teams since the turn of the century (Oak, TB, Clev) have averaged 12% of their WAR from free agents and you will find that all of those free agents were modestly priced / short-term. They produced 25% of their WAR from drafted players. What may surprise you is that 45% of their WAR came from trading established players for prospects or players that made the ML level but had had yet to produce a 1.5 WAR season. BTW ... These three teams have been substantially more successful than any of the other teams in the bottom half of revenue.
  2. Major League Ready
    He had the same wRC+ as Xander Bogaerts last year and 1 point less than Pete Alonso. He has some ceiling left to reach but I would not characterize him as being in a make or break situation.
  3. Major League Ready
    Thanks for making the effort to summarize this information in a way that puts this in context. Of course, we all know this conceptually, but the summary really puts it in perspective.
  4. Major League Ready
    Title needs to be changes to a few moves the twins would like to make but will never happen.
  5. Major League Ready
    He might get some starter innings the next year to year and a half, but it will be quite disappointing if some combination of Festa / Raya / Canterino / Culpepper and Prielipp don't force him to the BP. Of course, should his stuff improve in a way that elevates his ceiling to level of these other prospects, great! That would be the opposite of disappointing. If he could get the same type of uptick that Jax got going to the pen we might have a new version of Glen Perkins.
  6. Major League Ready
    It would seem very hard to predict because a lot of his playing time will be dictated by injury. He is a Swiss Army Knife.
  7. Major League Ready
    There is absolutely no doubt that spending twice as much as other teams is a big advantage, especially in the playoffs where the ability to add a Ohtani and Yamamoto should be big. IDT anyone here would really dispute this position. However, are the Dodgers more willing (free spending) or do they have twice as much money to spend??? Even with the deferred money to Ohtani, the Dodgers 2024 payroll will be around 50% of 2022 revenue plus a conservative estimate of the increase for 2023 plus a bump in revenue from adding Ohtani and Yamamoto. These percentages compared to average revenue teams are a little deceiving. We also need to take into account, that a team at the top of the revenue heap is not spending double on operating costs. For example, if the Twins or Dbacks spend $80M on grounds Player Benefits, Signing Bonuses, Grounds Maintenance, Travel, non-player personnel, etc and the Dodgers spend $140M, the Dodgers will be spending roughly 20% whereas the Dbacks/Twins would be spending 28%. This obviously is theoretical given we don’t have financials but the theory that the Dodgers spend a lower percentage of revenue on payroll seems quite sound. As much as fans would like to portray this as a willingness to spend, the advantage they a creating is not a product of willingness to spend, if they are spending a similar percentage of available funds. It's a product of a revenue advantage.
  8. Major League Ready
    I had not seen this so thanks for sharing this with all of us. It's nice to get a little bit of insight. We have a great problem in that we have an infield full off of very good players with a top prospect that will be ready soon. Is this kind of situation ever crystal clear? It's certainly possible they love Lee but think he is best suited for 3B while also feeling Lewis could adapt to another position. Who knows? Not us!
  9. Major League Ready
    I bet someone in analytics has built an algorithm that can predict the # of runs created by the example you gave,
  10. Major League Ready
    I was on the fence in terms of signing Santana but I have always admired the quality of his ABs. He will set a good example for our young players. I have decided to take pleasure every time he is up in that I am not watching Gallo because that was painful at times.
  11. Major League Ready
    He had an .866 OPS against LHP in 2019. Not that I am predicting that to happen and I share your skepticism but it's possible he could pull off .850. Sorta / maybe. 😉
  12. Major League Ready
    The decision to spend $10M Vazquez was not made this year. That decision was made based on circumstances when another catcher looked like a very important need and I think we all liked the move at the time. We can't say they should have dumped his salary now because that was not possible. No team was taking him at $10M. Farmer is a little spendy at $6.25m but the production of the combination of Julien and Farmer would cost a lot more than $7M and you get the additional flexibility of Farmer as a bonus. He seems like a very high character guy and that probably played into it as well. The biggest concern in terms of investment is Correa. We simply must get a lot more out of him. Vazquez / Farmer / Santana / DeScalfani, and Margot have a combined cost of $8M less than Correa.
  13. Major League Ready
    You are absolutely right and I don't know why anyone would argue that the ability to spend 2X or 3X the payroll of another team is not a significant advantage. However, the revenue disparity is not going away anytime soon (or ever). Therefore, the question we should be asking is what strategies / practices have been most effective at overcoming this disadvantage.
  14. Major League Ready
    The post I responded stated ... "Clevinger was being investigated due allegations of domestic abuse a year or two ago. Regardless of the claim's veracity, that's not someone the Twins are interested in bringing into the clubhouse, and I don't blame them." It's not what everyone is saying but the post I responded to states this quite clearly. How does "regardless of the claim's veracity" not ignore the possibility he was falsely accused? Let's replace veracity with a synonym like Truthfulness or accuracy. Regardless of the truthfulness of the statement does not ignore if he was falsely accused?
  15. Major League Ready
    You have to root for a guy that works hard to get better. He did get better defensively, and I doubt he is done improving on defense. While I think there is a good chance Lee is the 2B of the future, I am just not as certain as the consensus here. There are just too many possible scenarios to conclude this is the only outcome.
  16. Major League Ready
    We should ignore if the allegations had any veracity? Really, we should ignore the facts if he was falsely accused? Usually where there is smoke there is fire. He is not worth the disruption if there are character issues but to banish him based on accusation without even considering the merit of the allegations is just not right.
  17. Major League Ready
    Even with back-to-back 100+ loss seasons, the As have the highest win percentage in MLB among teams in the bottom half of revenue since the turn of the century. They also have the most 90- win seasons. They rank higher than the several large market teams including the Giants / Astros / Angels / Rangers / Phillies and Cubs. Why are you using the departure of a couple players to rank a team. Do you realize there is a very sophisticated ranking system used by the gambling industry to rank teams. Looking across several of them, the 2024 team has slightly better odds of winning the WS. The baseball industry also ranks team by WAR. Those ranking also slightly favor this year’s team. Perhaps, it makes some sense to do a quick internet search of these things before making a statement like "some of the takes here are amazing" which of course is a nice way of saying ignorant.
  18. Major League Ready
    I already have the 22/23 Brewers but I want to add the 2018 and 2011 teams that won 96 games in each season.. I am going to add a couple Dback teams as well. These two teams are the only National league teams that have done much in the past 25 years but they are well behind the As, Rays, and Guardians in terms of win% and/or 90 win seasons. The Twins actually rank higher in win% and 90 win seasons. The Twins rank 13th in win% and and the brewers rank 19th and have one less 90 win seasons. I think the twins will widen that margin over the next few years. The model is a macro view designed to determine the relative influence of each of the acquisition methods for 90 win teams. I was reading the debate here a few years ago and wondered if certain methods were as critical as some posters felt they were. I collected the information to satisfy my own curiosity. A loss via trading away a player is captured by another which is part of the point of the exercise. This model does not tell us if a team made a bad trade but it does tell us what practices contributed to building a good team in a given year. The aggregate data provides a pretty clear view of the relative impact of trading for established players vs trading for prospects.
  19. Major League Ready
    There were 6 big revenue (large payroll) teams that made the playoff’s and 6 small revenue (lower payroll) teams that made the playoffs. High revenue NL: Dodgers / Braves / Phillies Low revenue: DBacks / Marlins / Brewers Higher revenue AL: Astros / Rangers and Blue Jays above average but not top 10. Low revenue: Twins / Orioles / Rays So, stating that 6 high revenue / high payroll teams made the playoffs last year simply ignores the fact that 6 low revenue teams made the playoffs. That said, an objective view would be that the dominance of the Dodgers / Yankees and Red Sox over the past 20 years is a very strong indication of the advantage of spending. The only low revenue team to win the WS in the past 15 years is the 2015 KC Royals who literally have the worst win record in the sport and one 90-win season since the turn of the century. While there is an outlier on occasion like Peter Seidler spending like crazy when he knew his time on earth was limited, teams spend consist with their revenue and the twins are one of them. So, go ahead and complain that the revenue disparity creates a disadvantage to many teams but complaining that a low revenue team does not spend like a high revenue team simply lacks common sense.
  20. Major League Ready
    Santana is a grossly superior defender and a better hitter against LHP so IDK how you would come to this conclusion. MAT did hit 21 HRs. So did Joey Gallo. Using only HRs as a measure of offensive ability makes no sense. Using a more inclusive metric like OPS or better yet wRC+, Margot is the superior offensive player. Taylor’s wRC+ for the past 3 years is 85. Margot’s is 97. The ZIPs projection for Margot is 100 and Taylor’s is 81. Margot also has experience playing all 3 OF positions. Why are MAT and Solano unsigned if they are so valuable?
  21. Major League Ready
    Other than starting pitching, where would it have made sense to spend big on a free agent? Who would they replace. Certainly not Lewis, Correa or Kirilloff. The combination of Julien and Farmer is great and we have Lee in the wings. Buxton who is finally healthy, Kepler or Wallner? No. How about the BP. Spending big for the BP is the riskiest move in MLB. They put together one of the top BPs in the league. So, not the BP which leaves us with the obvious answer, starting pitching. There were 4 free agent SPs that are true playoff caliber SPs. Nola and Yamamoto. Were we getting either of them? Snell and Montgomery’s demands have been so high that no team has been willing to sign them. The other were not difference makers. So, we can come up with some places they could have spent but none of them crucial. How about a trade for a young/cost controlled playoff caliber SP. Which SP matching this description were traded this year. No doubt, several teams attempted to get this type of SP from Seattle/Miami or any other team like CWS with Cease. Yet, none were made so the twins had a lot of company in their unwillingness to pay the price required to obtain these players. Should we give them a bad grade for not over paying? The thing that is being absolutely ignored is the potential to pick-up a SP at the deadline like the Rangers did last year. We have talked all off-season about the many question marks on this team. We will have answers to most of those questions at the deadline so why not wait until then to determine if we should give away assets like Brooks Lee that would contribute this team for several years into the future? The first rule of business decision making is to have the best information possible. That’s definitely not the case in making this decision now.
  22. Major League Ready
    Good point. Let's not manage for only this year. Kirilloff looks like a darn good option for LF next year. The flexibility of these players allows for many options when injuries occur or rotating the DH. One of those players could even be moved at the deadline. I doubt Lee gets moved this year or next.
  23. Major League Ready
    I will stand by an opinion when the majority here disagree with my position. It would be an entirely different thing for me if all of the people who are supposed to be experts have an opinion that is very different than mine. That would make take a hard look at my stance. That's just me. It's certainly not the case for many sports fans. We just disagree on this one. Julien is the better hitter IMO (and the Twins) against RHP. Farmer had a bit of an off year against LHP and Polanco had an up year. We are talking about 87ABs against LHP for Polanco and 114 for Farmer. Polanco was almost 100 points higher than his career numbers over this SSS. I generally weight recent data more heavily but not with this SSS so yes, I would be inclined to look at career numbers for players with long track records like Polanco and Farmer. Farmer has been quite a bit better than Polanco against LHP. Farmer also offers better positional flexibility. I take Farmer and the return on Polanco every time. I also place value in the prospect return more than most because of all of the time spent studying the impact of the various sources of player acquisition. I get the impression you are not putting any value in that part of the return. I took a 10 season sample of the best years of the Rays, As, and Guardians in order to illustrate. 45% of their WAR from players with 1.5 WAR or more came from players that were acquired as prospects. Prospect defined as never having reached the 1.5 WAR level. 25% came from players they drafted. Internation draft was 10%. Trading depth like Polanco is how these three organizations built teams that significantly outperformed the other organizations in the bottom half of revenue over the past couple of decades.
  24. Major League Ready
    What about the numerous national baseball writers, podcasters, and TV analysts who said this was a very good deal for the Twins. I didn't see or hear a single baseball person suggest this was a mistake. Were they all just unable to look past Julien? The 13 best players don't necessarily combine to make the best team. Polanco would have been the inferior player when replacing Julien against RHP or Farmer against LHP. He would have also been the inferior player replacing Lewis. They would have needed to take a roster spot for DH and if they were going to do that, they could have gotten an equivalent hitter for the money and netted 2 pitchers and 2 prospects. Yes, on a 26-man rosters, players will get hurt but any value from Polanco relies upon one of Julien or Lewis being injured for a sustained period. Then, there is always the question of how to get Lee into the lineup when he is ready not to mention a few other prospects that could play into this season and beyond. There are numerous reasons that Polanco was named the most likely player to be traded from this roster.
  25. Major League Ready
    I would hope that they find a trade partner if we are talking about Farmer / Santana / Margot or perhaps even Thielbar. We know they have been slow to move on but to keep Margot for example if martin is raking makes no sense. It's also not terribly dissimilar to what they just did with Polanco and Arraez before him with the obvious exception those were off-season moves.
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