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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    No doubt there are many full-time players. These arguments can be easily manipulated to fit a scenario. My objection was not the point you made. I was referencing a big deal being made out of Julien not starting some upcoming games because of LH starters. We know that 70+ percent of IPs will be by RHP. It's one of those things that are true and misleading at the same time given Julien will start far more games than coming off the bench. I am not nearly as sure as you where Santana is concerned. Kirilloff has far more ceiling at this point. Why would they start Santana at 1B over Kirilloff now that Kepler is healthy and Kirilloff is not needed in the OF? It seems more plausible that Santana could be trust into any everyday role (as he has) by injuries but it seems like a real stretch to say they signed him intending for him to be a primary starter. I said it at the time. I hope their plan A was not a 38 y/o that has not been good in 4 years.
  2. Major League Ready
    I guess it depends somewhat on if you believe in riding the hot player. Miranda has a 192 wRC+ over the two series where martin has struggled with a wRC+ of 48. If they keep Miranda, Castro plays the outfield and he has also been very hot. They are not cutting Margot for a rookie that is struggling at the moment so keeping Martin over Miranda makes little sense.
  3. Major League Ready
    Nice work. The current injury situation is being used to portray Castro and Santana as something they are not (full-time players). They are playing every day right now because we have a lot of injuries, they are switch hitters and they both hot hitters at the moment. They will be part-time players if injuries normalize.
  4. Major League Ready
    Neither one of them contributed much to the win streak. Nine position players played extremely well these last two series. Martin and Margot were pretty bad. PA wRC+ Edouard Julien 26 304 Trevor Larnach 18 285 Ryan Jeffers 31 259 Max Kepler 21 235 Willi Castro 31 217 Christian Vázquez 17 208 Jose Miranda 19 202 Byron Buxton 19 193 Carlos Santana 31 192 Kyle Farmer 16 97 Alex Kirilloff 21 64 Austin Martin 24 48 Manuel Margot 12 13
  5. Major League Ready
    Would like to see the link confirming what the twins are getting from Bally's. I have not been able to find any report, just conjecture based on what Cleveland and Texas received which is a totally different scenario. They had contracts and needed the approval of a bankruptcy judge. The Twins did not have that leverage in negotiations. You also ignored the $30M decrease in revenue from the BAM money. Are you still not aware of the BAM money after all the discussion or are you simply choosing to ignore anything that contradicts your position? .... You are also comparing this year's starting payroll to last year's ending payroll which of course includes the additional cost to replace injured players. The current payroll is 129.6M. The difference is roughly #23M not $30M.
  6. Major League Ready
    I have been wondering the same thing. All of these points seem likely. I think the wildcard could be them sending down Sands to stretch him out. On one hand, Sands finally looks like he can be a contributor. On the other hand, we are very deep in RPs and it would be really valuable if Sands turns into a decent SP. I am warming up to the idea of giving Sands a shot as a SP.
  7. Major League Ready
    Yet, he is 2nd on the team in WAR. He is going to start against every RHP which should be 70%. You are using a small sample anomaly to misrepresent. this situation. What's worse is you know it's a misrepresentation. If we are going to cherry pick small samples, Julien has a wRC+ of 159 against LHP this year and Polanco's wRC+against LHP is 42.
  8. Major League Ready
    If would appear you define value as "useable" this season. There is no arguing that Topa is the only piece of that trade which will provide value this season. However, if you define value in terms of building a contending team, trading for prospects has contributed over 30% of WAR on average to 92+ win teams for teams in the bottom 17 of revenue since 2000. Trading for proven players has contributed 11% of WAR. These percentages use a very liberal definition of proven player where the player has had 1 season with 1.5 WAR. If you use a measure more reflective of a "proven player", those percentages would be closer to 34% for prospects and 7% for players that have produced 2+ WAR in a season. This type of trade has very clearly been far more influential to building contenders than trading for established players.
  9. Major League Ready
    Correa getting healthy will be a big boost for this team. Castro / Miranda cover 3rd and Farmer will not need to be used against RHP. We will essentially be swapping Correa for Framer in the lineup. The offense should pick-up especially if Kepler hits like he has recently.
  10. Major League Ready
    I was referring to the general sentiment of all posters, not you. I could have / should have been more clear. The point was what people want and what has worked are not the same thing. All the complaining is partially a product of people thinking a given approach makes the most sense without a clear picture of what has worked. Having compiled the acquisition method for every 1.5+ WAR player on every 92+ win team for every team in the bottom 17 of revenue since the turn of the century, that history suggests the most successful practices are not consistent with how many fans want to see things done.
  11. Major League Ready
    Larnach only played in 3 minor league games so he should have an option remaining.
  12. Major League Ready
    As if that never happens here. How many articles did we have about cutting spending and how many times have we and will we here about how the FO blew it this off season? The site is often dominated by constant rehashing of whatever fans don't like. Povich stepping up and Steer playing at an even higher level is not relitigating. It's a new development. The debate has been basically theoretical in terms of if that team was worthy of investment and even more so about the future costs. Well, the future is here. We know exactly what we gained (nothing) and we are starting to understand the costs. We all want the same thing, a team with lots of talent. We want to get over the hump. You better make those investments in the right player at the right time because if you trade away players that will contribute for 6+ years, it's going to make it very difficult to get over that hump. I don't sweat a 1 year $5M player not working out. Not even a little. Hell, the really expensive FAs fail at a high rate. That problem goes away quickly. The current Oriole's team is credited with drafting very well and they have. Eight of the their top contributors were drafted. Seven other top contributors we prospects/waived players acquired before every amassing 1.5 wins in a season. One player (Kimbrell) was acquired in free agency. I realize you and many others hate the message but the methods we love as fans (free agents and trades for proven) succeed far less often than those teams that play that long game if you just bother to look.
  13. Major League Ready
    IDK what changed with Povich but I was listening to an interview on MLB radio with someone from Baltimore's FO before the season started. He singled out Povich among their pitching prospects which caught my attention. I have been following him and we shall see but so far, his prediction looks pretty good.
  14. Major League Ready
    They traded away Cade Povich at the deadline in 22. He has a .83 ERA and a K/9 of 13.71 in 4 starts. I heard very good things about him on MLB radio before the season started. Steer (153 wRC+) and Povich would be important assets right now. Sawyer-Gibson Long also started 4 games at the end of last year for Detroit with a 2.70 ERA but he is hurt. Yennier Cano would be welcome here as well. The majority applauded them investing in that team. I was not one of them. That team was not worthy of investment and we will probably pay for it for several years. Much bigger mistake then signing a couple 1 year players that don't produce.
  15. Major League Ready
    The call here from the majority was for a "playoff caliber" / "front of the rotation" type SP. This organization has never signed the 5+ year type SPs as free agents and it is very rare for any team in the bottom half of revenue. The failure rate and opportunity cost is simply too high. If this is a mistake, it's a mistake every mid/small market is making so it does not make sense to single out the Twins. What if we had signed Yamamoto. That's looking suspect right now. How about Snell. He has sucked! Montgomery ended up being a great deal but that required a crystal ball. What if we had traded away Lee for Burnes. The rest of the team is a mess so that would have been throwing away a player who will contribute for 6+ years. We can point to the affordable guys that are doing well at the moment but that was not the type of player that was called for here. IDK exactly what they were thinking with DeSclafani but I did hear on MLB radio a couple times that he was looking strong before the injury. My guess is that they took a $4M gamble because it's not a lot of money by today's standards and they were getting other value. I think your positioning is very plausible. If they could get decent production from him through May or June there is a decent chance one or two of the prospects will be ready. Best case .... It is possible he stays healthy. There are guys with similar profiles that put together a decent year quite often.
  16. Major League Ready
    Alcala has to stay down for 15 days and it's only been 8 days. Edit: Oops. Someone already answered. Should have read on before responding.
  17. Major League Ready
    I was on the Hoskins train too but he has not been a difference maker either, at least not yet. My point is that you said in an earlier post "the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy." This makes no sense if there were no starting positions to fill. Santana and Margot are a very minute portion of the problem. The injuries to Correa and Lewis are the biggest problems. Kepler being out and Buxton / Wallner / Varland stinking are the next tier in terms of impact. Santana and Margot are a 3rd tier in terms of impact along with Castro / Farmer and Vazquez stinking.
  18. Major League Ready
    Which starting position player would you have had them replace with a free agent. You were very adamant about Wallner getting a chance based on what he did last year. Not that they were going to replace Buxton be we could have replaced Buxton with Bellinger. Would Bellinger's wRC+ of 97 had made a difference? We were not replacing Jeffers, Julien, Correa Lewis or Kepler and Kirilloff has been a bright spot. So, which starting position player should they have replaced?
  19. Major League Ready
    I was just fine with entrusting Martin / Larnach / Miranda and others to supply depth. However, when you lose Lewis / Correa / Kepler and Buxton / Wallner / Castro and Vazquez are all hitting very poorly, depth pieces are not going to make up for that that enormous loss in production. It would be nice if those depth pieces were league average but we would still be getting beat on a regular basis. Hopefully, we don't see much of Santana once Kepler is back and Margot only plays against LHP. I am rooting extra hard for Miranda hoping he crushes it and they are forced to cut Santana.
  20. Major League Ready
    Your company gives one group of 15 employees $1M each for a project and they give another group of your peers $2M for the same project. Would you think it was fair if they fired the bottom 15 people based on results without considering budget? Of course not. Money matters and expecting the same results for half the money is not rational. BTW .... They rank 11th in win percentage among all teams. So, to insist an above average outcome is "generational incompetence is an irrational rant.
  21. Major League Ready
    For starters, the sport is doing just fine with record revenue last year. The bigger markets are making a killing. It's getting tougher for the teams with similar revenue. However, the Twins are 4th in win percentage when compared to the bottom 17 teams in terms of revenue since Falvey took over. The only three that have done better are among the lowest spending teams in MLB. WIN % Since 2017 1 Tampa 0.573 2 Brewers 0.555 3 Cleveland 0.551 4 TWINS 0.521 5 Mariners 0.514 6 Blue Jays 0.504 7 Oakland 0.485 8 Dbacks 0.480 9 Padres 0.479 10 Rockies 0.461 11 White Sox 0.456 12 Reds 0.453 13 Marlins 0.434 14 Pirates 0.430 15 Orioles 0.424 16 Tigers 0.406 17 Royals 0.405
  22. Major League Ready
    It's Santana for me. We will give up some defense, but I would rather see Miranda stay and Santana go. That said, Margot would be the next to go. At least it looks like we got a good prospect as part of the Margot deal. Roncon's OPS is now over 1.000.
  23. Major League Ready
    Where are you getting this assessment of his "raw tools". Have you seen him play on Milb TV often or have you seen scouting reports you can share? I have been looking for scouting reports on his ability to stick at catcher and have not found anything. I would guess he will get some attention if he continues to produce an OPS around 1.000. With that attention will come some opinions on his ability to stick behind the plate.
  24. Major League Ready
    I would not emulate Toronto. There have been 164 ninety-two win seasons in MLB since the turn of the century. Toronto has had 2 or them and they have not had a 94+ win season since 1993.
  25. Major League Ready
    The throw should have been on the fly but it did not skip. It bounced pretty high.
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