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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I think it would be great if the Pohlad's operated the team at break-even once a decade when the dollars had a good chance of putting us over the top. Should we consider this expectation in the context of understanding they lost the equivalent of 2 or 3 years profit in 2020 and I suspect they took a loss in 2021. Should we also take into account we can't sign an impact player for 1 year. It's a 5-10 year commitment. Would we expect the same from a player. Correa was not worth anywhere close to what he got paid last year and Buxton was worth nothing. Do you think they should kick in $25M between them so that we can have a better team this year. It's only one year.
  2. Major League Ready
    I basically with you more that taxpayers should not fund stadiums. So, let's say starting next year every team had to start paying $50M/year (rent or financing) or had to come up with $2B for a stadium. Do you understand the financial implications, specifically who would be paying the toll so to speak?
  3. Major League Ready
    My bad. I did not pay much attention to what you were saying about rank. It's a poor measure of a given year and a very good measure when averaged over a period of 5 or 10 or 15 years. In that context it will tell you how the twins spend relative to our teams. I would like to see that data for a 10 year period. In terms of their 23 spend. It's quite possible they had additional spending capacity and elected to put part of that windfall in their pocket. It's possible they spent all or part of the difference on a combination of infrastructure and personnel or some other investment in the team. IDK.
  4. Major League Ready
    IDK what every other team is doing. You are introducing a new measure (rank) now. That would be a good exercise but we don't have the data. The fact that they ranked a little higher in 23 would suggest they were stretching a little, would it not? I have seen others put up the data and the twins were consistent in terms of rank and spending on average. I was responding to many other posts that basically said that TV revenue was only reduced by $15-20M so why are the Twins reducing payroll by $30M. This is either an uniformed position or intentionally misleading if someone is aware of BAM. Revenue is going down by approximately $45-50M. That's it! I was objecting to the omission/misrepresentation. They gave a range of $125-140. If we take that at face value, it's in line with revenue. However, they are not going to just spend for the sake a spending if the right opportunities don't present themselves. BAM Payment
  5. Major League Ready
    Great dark horse candidate Doc. I hope they can get his velocity bumped up a couple MPH. I think that would be a pretty big deal with him. We have a few guys ascending from that AA level that will be interesting to watch this year.
  6. Major League Ready
    I agree, especially with the part that someone should have told Provus their plans were not ready for public reveal. That said, just because people presume someone is speaking for their company does not make that a reasonable presumption. We need to be reasonable and holding the Twins accountable for something a broadcaster said is not completely reasonable, especially given any reasonable person would not presume his intent was to mislead. I think the reasonable takeaway is that the twins were planning on ending blackouts, he was excited about it, and then the landscape changed.
  7. Major League Ready
    Bravo Peter. We have not seen this type of objectivity, nor have we seen details listed to support conclusions as you have done here.
  8. Major League Ready
    Do you understand they had a windfall of $30M last year? I am going to keep saying it as long as people keep ignoring. Not one person has acknowledged they had $30M windfall last year that they are not getting again. It astonishes me that people continue to pretend the BAM money did not lead to record spending. We are pretending the revenue loss is only associated with TV revenue. If you received a $30,000 bonus this year and opted to give your 3 children 10,000 each, what would you say if they insisted upon getting $10,000 this year and every year going forward?
  9. Major League Ready
    Of course, he is an employee. Do we hold the team responsible for statements from the grounds crew? He has no say in the decisions and has no standing as a member of the Twins management team. That aside, the premise he was lying is absurd. Lying implies intent. Are you really going to tell me you think he meant to mislead us? This thing has gotten really petty.
  10. Major League Ready
    That's not how I would interpret it. I think many people simply accept that spending will go down if revenue goes down. Anyone who has dealt with budgets in the real world have zero problem understanding this off-season. many more understand the only way a modest revenue team can be successful is through player development. I also was not talking about the people with the point of view described above. The people complaining about spending this year are not going to be OK with the team not filling holes with free agents. They would have a point. Free agency has a function. Taylor and Solano were important to the team last year. Vazquez was a smart and well-received addition. Like many free agents, he simply did not work out. Correa was not very good either but we seem to be OK with his failure because he cost a lot.
  11. Major League Ready
    I don't want to argue if they shouldn't care about profit. I am pointing out that you and the writers here just continue to ignore the BAM money as you did here again even though I asked about it specifically. Many people are not interested in an objective view as you just demonstrated. Let me try again. Why should the $30M BAM reduction be ignored? This kind of burying our heads in the sand BS is absurd. There are a whole lot of people here who are either uninformed or willing to misrepresent the facts.
  12. Major League Ready
    You are absolutely right. Not only do I agree but I have suggested on more than one occasion that free agency is a last resort and far less important to roster development than drafting and/or trading for prospects. Yet, people go nuts while ignoring that training for Mahle produced zero and we would be a considerably better team today and for the next several years had they not invested in a team that was not in a position to contend. The money would be much more likely to have a lasting impact if it was spent on extending someone like Lewis.
  13. Major League Ready
    This is true only if none of these players are replaced by free agents. Do you think that's realistic? Do you think other posters here would be OK with no free agent additions in the next couple years?
  14. Major League Ready
    I don't want to debate the multitude of things brought up here. My only question was how much revenue went down from last year. I seriously doubt they budgeted based on getting 85-90% of the previous TV deal and You ignored the $30M of BAM. It would have been quite reasonable had they forecasted $50M less in revenue. Contrary to popular belief, that $50M is not covered by reducing revenue by $25M.
  15. Major League Ready
    Thanks for bringing this to our attention. It's always fun to see this kind of stuff. It would make the Arraez trade look really great if Chourio turned out to be an above average player.
  16. Major League Ready
    How much do you think they are pocketing? In other words, how much did revenue go down as compared to payroll?
  17. Major League Ready
    Had they said this .... The reaction here would have been they are liars. They just are not willing to spend the money. They are not serious about winning. They are greedy, etc. or the ever popular why can't they just be honest and say they are unwilling to spend what it takes to get top talent. They were completely transparent and that was not acceptable for some reason.
  18. Major League Ready
    Does anyone believe Corey Provus meant to mislead fans? Who are “the others in the organization” that made this claim? Is Corey Provus a member of Twin’s management? No. He is a member of the media making a prediction he thought to be true. Would we be calling him a liar if he had he said he was sure Kepler would be traded? What really throws me is that the writers here have consistently portrayed the reduction in TV revenue as the only reason for a payroll reduction while withholding the fact that the Twin’s revenue would also go down by $30M (BAM money). I recognize the FO never specifically stated that BAM money contributed to a record payroll in 2023 but I bet these same writers would have recognized it if the BAM payment was this year. At first, I thought writers and posters were aware of the BAM money but after bringing it up a half dozen times it would appear that the writers and posters who want to cling to this negative narrative are ignoring facts that get in the way which implies the intent to mislead. Ironically, the twins FO was criticized for being too transparent! BTW, if anyone is willing to look at what happen in an objective way, they did not set the budget believing they would lose all of the TV revenue which was the way many portrayed this situation. They were losing $30M in BAM for certain. Had they anticipated no TV revenue they would have had an $85M reduction in revenue and they would have cut the budget far more than they did.
  19. Major League Ready
    I am curious who they are. Give us examples that are not a one year anomaly. Show us other teams spending consistently spending a larger portion of their revenue on payroll. It would be great to see some supporting documentation when you make a statement as if it's fact. The estimates that I have seen over the years always has the twins in the bottom 1/3 or even 1/4 in terms of net profit. Which teams are operating at break even on even a semi-regular basis and which teams are operating at a loss? I have spent quite a bit of time researching this and have never seen any indication of what you claim.
  20. Major League Ready
    The financial speculation is so often misconstrued that I took a moment to calculate the amount of reduction based on normal business practices. Here is how the math works. Some assumptions are necessary. They are as follows. Payroll was 50% of revenue in 2023. Therefore revenue was $310M. We know this would be quite high without the BAM money but looks about right with it. The next assumption is that TV revenue only goes down by $15M and the BAM revenue of $30M. I assumed a 12% profit and backed into operating costs which include every other employee, piece of equipment, travel, offices, etc. I have only seen a couple of articles every that attempted to define operating cost as a percentage of revenue but those articles pegged the percentage at 30-35%. I have backed into this calculation based on Forbes and other articles a number of times and the number has always come out close to the same for the Twins. Of course it would be likely to be less for the highest revenue teams. The numbers reflect a scenario where the team makes less profit but the same percentage. The idea is to show what level of payroll would be required to maintain not the same amount of profit but the same net percentage which is generally how profit levels are targeted in any business. These numbers/calculations will illustrate why you can't simply reduce payroll by 50% of the revenue reduction.
  21. Major League Ready
    I can't imagine Bellinger taking a 1 year deal. If he falls back to 2021-22 levels or even league average his market value will be a fraction of what it is today. He is going wherever he gets the most guaranteed money. Even if he would, the FO was clear and transparent about reducing payroll so it's just not realistic.
  22. Major League Ready
    Montgomery or Bellinger would not sign a 1 year deal. It would be a 3 year deal like Correa signed. If Bellinger performs like he did in 2021-2022 he is not going anywhere. We would have $121M in our top 6 paid players in 2025. Obviously, the same is true of Montgomery if he gets hurt. Might even be true if he has a mediocre year.
  23. Major League Ready
    The Rangers starting pitching was not nearly as good as the Twins last year. The deadline pick-up of Montgomery was huge for them. The Royal's WS win in 15 was the product of a very strong BP. I prefer they win vs practice a given type of roster construction but you should follow whatever team you like.
  24. Major League Ready
    Very good point. Let me add that when a CFO or anyone responsible for a P&L defines payroll, it's not just salary. It's salary and benefits. Spotrac's estimate for 2024 benefits is $17M. Now, it's all together possible that whoever started this measure is not aware of how these things are defined in Corporate America but we really don't know what they are including when they say 50%.
  25. Major League Ready
    Now this is a fair and accurate representation of the revenue picture. The point was independent of if they should take a hit or not. It was that article after article completely ignored an obvious fact. There are only two possibilities, the people writing these articles are uninformed or intentionally misleading. As fans of course we want them to spend more and I doubt that's much different any year, There is a call to spend more every year. The claim is the same that additional spending will put us over the top. This team would not be even close to the teams favored to win the WS if they spent another $30M. $30M got us 1.1 WAR out of Correa and we can also talk about the numerous Rodon type failures so it's far from certainty additional spending would "put us over the top". I wish they didn't care about money too but when is this ever the case. We seem to accept quite readily with players that it's a business and we expect and even cheer them in their pursuit of maximizing their income. Yet, our expectation of business owners is that they do not treat their business as a business. It's just not a very realistic expectation and it's being done parallel to people complaining about paying $20/month for coverage.
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