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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The post I responded stated ... "Clevinger was being investigated due allegations of domestic abuse a year or two ago. Regardless of the claim's veracity, that's not someone the Twins are interested in bringing into the clubhouse, and I don't blame them." It's not what everyone is saying but the post I responded to states this quite clearly. How does "regardless of the claim's veracity" not ignore the possibility he was falsely accused? Let's replace veracity with a synonym like Truthfulness or accuracy. Regardless of the truthfulness of the statement does not ignore if he was falsely accused?
  2. Major League Ready
    You have to root for a guy that works hard to get better. He did get better defensively, and I doubt he is done improving on defense. While I think there is a good chance Lee is the 2B of the future, I am just not as certain as the consensus here. There are just too many possible scenarios to conclude this is the only outcome.
  3. Major League Ready
    We should ignore if the allegations had any veracity? Really, we should ignore the facts if he was falsely accused? Usually where there is smoke there is fire. He is not worth the disruption if there are character issues but to banish him based on accusation without even considering the merit of the allegations is just not right.
  4. Major League Ready
    Even with back-to-back 100+ loss seasons, the As have the highest win percentage in MLB among teams in the bottom half of revenue since the turn of the century. They also have the most 90- win seasons. They rank higher than the several large market teams including the Giants / Astros / Angels / Rangers / Phillies and Cubs. Why are you using the departure of a couple players to rank a team. Do you realize there is a very sophisticated ranking system used by the gambling industry to rank teams. Looking across several of them, the 2024 team has slightly better odds of winning the WS. The baseball industry also ranks team by WAR. Those ranking also slightly favor this year’s team. Perhaps, it makes some sense to do a quick internet search of these things before making a statement like "some of the takes here are amazing" which of course is a nice way of saying ignorant.
  5. Major League Ready
    I already have the 22/23 Brewers but I want to add the 2018 and 2011 teams that won 96 games in each season.. I am going to add a couple Dback teams as well. These two teams are the only National league teams that have done much in the past 25 years but they are well behind the As, Rays, and Guardians in terms of win% and/or 90 win seasons. The Twins actually rank higher in win% and 90 win seasons. The Twins rank 13th in win% and and the brewers rank 19th and have one less 90 win seasons. I think the twins will widen that margin over the next few years. The model is a macro view designed to determine the relative influence of each of the acquisition methods for 90 win teams. I was reading the debate here a few years ago and wondered if certain methods were as critical as some posters felt they were. I collected the information to satisfy my own curiosity. A loss via trading away a player is captured by another which is part of the point of the exercise. This model does not tell us if a team made a bad trade but it does tell us what practices contributed to building a good team in a given year. The aggregate data provides a pretty clear view of the relative impact of trading for established players vs trading for prospects.
  6. Major League Ready
    There were 6 big revenue (large payroll) teams that made the playoff’s and 6 small revenue (lower payroll) teams that made the playoffs. High revenue NL: Dodgers / Braves / Phillies Low revenue: DBacks / Marlins / Brewers Higher revenue AL: Astros / Rangers and Blue Jays above average but not top 10. Low revenue: Twins / Orioles / Rays So, stating that 6 high revenue / high payroll teams made the playoffs last year simply ignores the fact that 6 low revenue teams made the playoffs. That said, an objective view would be that the dominance of the Dodgers / Yankees and Red Sox over the past 20 years is a very strong indication of the advantage of spending. The only low revenue team to win the WS in the past 15 years is the 2015 KC Royals who literally have the worst win record in the sport and one 90-win season since the turn of the century. While there is an outlier on occasion like Peter Seidler spending like crazy when he knew his time on earth was limited, teams spend consist with their revenue and the twins are one of them. So, go ahead and complain that the revenue disparity creates a disadvantage to many teams but complaining that a low revenue team does not spend like a high revenue team simply lacks common sense.
  7. Major League Ready
    Santana is a grossly superior defender and a better hitter against LHP so IDK how you would come to this conclusion. MAT did hit 21 HRs. So did Joey Gallo. Using only HRs as a measure of offensive ability makes no sense. Using a more inclusive metric like OPS or better yet wRC+, Margot is the superior offensive player. Taylor’s wRC+ for the past 3 years is 85. Margot’s is 97. The ZIPs projection for Margot is 100 and Taylor’s is 81. Margot also has experience playing all 3 OF positions. Why are MAT and Solano unsigned if they are so valuable?
  8. Major League Ready
    Other than starting pitching, where would it have made sense to spend big on a free agent? Who would they replace. Certainly not Lewis, Correa or Kirilloff. The combination of Julien and Farmer is great and we have Lee in the wings. Buxton who is finally healthy, Kepler or Wallner? No. How about the BP. Spending big for the BP is the riskiest move in MLB. They put together one of the top BPs in the league. So, not the BP which leaves us with the obvious answer, starting pitching. There were 4 free agent SPs that are true playoff caliber SPs. Nola and Yamamoto. Were we getting either of them? Snell and Montgomery’s demands have been so high that no team has been willing to sign them. The other were not difference makers. So, we can come up with some places they could have spent but none of them crucial. How about a trade for a young/cost controlled playoff caliber SP. Which SP matching this description were traded this year. No doubt, several teams attempted to get this type of SP from Seattle/Miami or any other team like CWS with Cease. Yet, none were made so the twins had a lot of company in their unwillingness to pay the price required to obtain these players. Should we give them a bad grade for not over paying? The thing that is being absolutely ignored is the potential to pick-up a SP at the deadline like the Rangers did last year. We have talked all off-season about the many question marks on this team. We will have answers to most of those questions at the deadline so why not wait until then to determine if we should give away assets like Brooks Lee that would contribute this team for several years into the future? The first rule of business decision making is to have the best information possible. That’s definitely not the case in making this decision now.
  9. Major League Ready
    Good point. Let's not manage for only this year. Kirilloff looks like a darn good option for LF next year. The flexibility of these players allows for many options when injuries occur or rotating the DH. One of those players could even be moved at the deadline. I doubt Lee gets moved this year or next.
  10. Major League Ready
    I will stand by an opinion when the majority here disagree with my position. It would be an entirely different thing for me if all of the people who are supposed to be experts have an opinion that is very different than mine. That would make take a hard look at my stance. That's just me. It's certainly not the case for many sports fans. We just disagree on this one. Julien is the better hitter IMO (and the Twins) against RHP. Farmer had a bit of an off year against LHP and Polanco had an up year. We are talking about 87ABs against LHP for Polanco and 114 for Farmer. Polanco was almost 100 points higher than his career numbers over this SSS. I generally weight recent data more heavily but not with this SSS so yes, I would be inclined to look at career numbers for players with long track records like Polanco and Farmer. Farmer has been quite a bit better than Polanco against LHP. Farmer also offers better positional flexibility. I take Farmer and the return on Polanco every time. I also place value in the prospect return more than most because of all of the time spent studying the impact of the various sources of player acquisition. I get the impression you are not putting any value in that part of the return. I took a 10 season sample of the best years of the Rays, As, and Guardians in order to illustrate. 45% of their WAR from players with 1.5 WAR or more came from players that were acquired as prospects. Prospect defined as never having reached the 1.5 WAR level. 25% came from players they drafted. Internation draft was 10%. Trading depth like Polanco is how these three organizations built teams that significantly outperformed the other organizations in the bottom half of revenue over the past couple of decades.
  11. Major League Ready
    What about the numerous national baseball writers, podcasters, and TV analysts who said this was a very good deal for the Twins. I didn't see or hear a single baseball person suggest this was a mistake. Were they all just unable to look past Julien? The 13 best players don't necessarily combine to make the best team. Polanco would have been the inferior player when replacing Julien against RHP or Farmer against LHP. He would have also been the inferior player replacing Lewis. They would have needed to take a roster spot for DH and if they were going to do that, they could have gotten an equivalent hitter for the money and netted 2 pitchers and 2 prospects. Yes, on a 26-man rosters, players will get hurt but any value from Polanco relies upon one of Julien or Lewis being injured for a sustained period. Then, there is always the question of how to get Lee into the lineup when he is ready not to mention a few other prospects that could play into this season and beyond. There are numerous reasons that Polanco was named the most likely player to be traded from this roster.
  12. Major League Ready
    I would hope that they find a trade partner if we are talking about Farmer / Santana / Margot or perhaps even Thielbar. We know they have been slow to move on but to keep Margot for example if martin is raking makes no sense. It's also not terribly dissimilar to what they just did with Polanco and Arraez before him with the obvious exception those were off-season moves.
  13. Major League Ready
    No doubt injuries derail the best laid plans. The answer as to why they don't just sign guys that can hit both LHP and RHP is pretty simple. They are starters and they cost a lot more. It's also harder to get them on one-year contracts. Were there specific players you had in mind that would have been a better fit?
  14. Major League Ready
    It would be a big plus for this team if we get the same type of boost we got from Lewis/Wallner, and Julien last year. While I appreciate the depth provided by Farmer / Santana / Margot, their ceilings are not that high and they have no chance of contributing in the future. It would be very good news if a prospect crushed AAA and then earned their way on to the ML roster much like Lewis/Julien/Wallner. Kepler is a different deal if he is playing like he did the last 4 months of 2023. That rookie better be tearing it up and the return substantial. It could make sense with Thielbar if the BP depth turns out as good as we hoped, assuming once again a decent return.
  15. Major League Ready
    2B is still an up the middle / important defensive position. It's not as idiotic as picking Sabato in the 1st round and definitely not as bad as picking Cavaco over Carroll and Stot.
  16. Major League Ready
    What does this mean? Are you saying that defensive metrics like OAA and DRS should be considered more reliable than the eye test?
  17. Major League Ready
    Nothing would be made of a veteran player stinking in spring training. He is good enough defensively that they would not even consider waiving him unless he absolutely sucked offensively for two-thirds of the season and Camargo was crushing AAA.
  18. Major League Ready
    I am not sure I would characterize Farmer as a short-side platoon player. They have always used him for defensive versatility and the ability to back-up SS. The fact that he hits LHP very well adds to his value because he is starter caliber against LHP but I don't think it's fair to say his only value is as a platoon player. The same type of nuance is true with Sanatana IMO. He can be primarily a platoon player and also have some value playing against RHP because of his defense. I hope the equation is much closer to 1:1 as opposed to the 2:1 you have predicted. I would do that by playing Castro in some capacity everyday a RHP is on the mound. He can B/U LF/CF/3B/2B and even SS and let the regular starters DH. I would even DH him over Santana against RHP. Where the $$$ are concerned. The inference that the Twins failed in the challenge to bring in players at a low cost because those players are making a lot of money that is being paid by another team makes no sense. What difference does it make what the player is being paid if the team isn't paying it? You are as logical and fair as anyone on this site but you might want to reconsider this one.
  19. Major League Ready
    This is a good explanation. It only stands to reasons that the number of opportunities a player has to get an out of create a DRS, the greater the +/-. It’s a qualitative measure weighted by a quantitative measure. What do you make of Arraez vs Julien? Arraez had 433 attempts at 2B and had an OAA of -10. Julien had roughly half the number of attempts (220) and posted an OAA of zero. Theoretically, if Julien had double the attempts, the numbers would be precisely the same. This also makes sense when one of the players is average. Should we believe Julien performed better? If we disagree with the rating, the problem is not quantity in this comparison. It would have to be that the qualitative measures lack a level of accuracy that creates a false measure.
  20. Major League Ready
    Polanco was going to be a bench player. While he is a better overall player, Farmer is simply a much better fit for this roster. The primary role is platooning with Julien and Farmer has a career wRC+ against LHP 26 points higher than Polanco and Farmer is a viable back-up at SS. We also would not have gotten nearly as much in trade for Farmer. This was a no-brainer.
  21. Major League Ready
    Not sure where these numbers are coming from. He had 1.7 fWAR and 1.6 bWAR. What concerns me is that the 3 previous he produced a total of 1.2 WAR or an average of .4 WAR.
  22. Major League Ready
    That's a very good summation Doc. I would add Canterino as the wildcard. It sure would help now and our future if he is finally healthy and lives up to his great potential.
  23. Major League Ready
    How good he was and how good he is going to be at 38 are two very different things. He was a great player but he has not been that player for the past 4 seasons. I would be very happy if he can do the job he was brought here for which is to platoon against LHP where Kirilloff is bad. They would probably be better of having Castro as the DH against RHP or Castro spelling Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and even Correa while those players DH. To put it in perspective, Gallo's wRC+ was 10 point higher than Santana last year against RHP and Santana's numbers were up from the previous 2 years against RHP last year.
  24. Major League Ready
    I think there is merit in both positions here. Santana's last 4 years definitely do not instill a great deal of confidence for me and there is always the threat of further decline at 38. The potential for greater ceiling and a long-term contributor is also a consideration. On the other hand, the safest path is to start with the veteran and replace him when one of those options mentioned demonstrates they are ready. Of course, we know they will likely give the veteran a longer leash than most of us would. Perhaps the silver lining is that all of this should be worked out in time to construct the best team for October.
  25. Major League Ready
    I sure hope they don't pull Kirilloff from 1B against RHP on a regular basis to replace him with someone that has had a wRC+ of 75-94 for the last 3 years, especially when that guy is 38 years old. The odds of a degradation in performance are far higher than an improvement. Kirilloff's wRC+ last year against RHP was 138. The defensive improvement does not make up for a 40-50 point difference in wRC+.
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