Major League Ready

A one year snapshot, especially given the TV situation, does not provide an accurate view of spending. Where are these other teams coming from and how was their paroll allocated. Over the last 5 years, the Twins have spent $596M, the Royals $412M, and the Dbacks 382. The Dbacks and Royals were due to finals spend. The Dbacks were not in the same situation as the twins. The twins had already made long-term investments. The Dbacks top 10 players made $52M in 2023. The Twins top 10 made $118M. The Royals do not have the largest payroll in the central. They are at $111M including the $10M in dead money to Dozier and the Twins are at $116M. (See Spotrac) The Cardinals average 80-100M more in revenue which is the only measurable that matters until players start accepting market size as compensation. The Padres had an owner that knew his time on earth was very limited. I think we can call that an anomaly and it was hardly an example of success. What did they do with that payroll this year after his death? They cut $100M.

I suspect like every other business greed is a motivating factor. If they felt additional investment would make them more money, they would invest. That's what billionaires do. With few exceptions all of the other teams in the same revenue range operate the same way, If you fell you are more skilled at assessing these opportunities than all of these billion owners and the analysts that work for them, good for you. There is a $500K job waiting for you if you don't already have one.

There are lots of holes in your argument. 1) You are measuring his INF throws vs OF throws. OFers get more on some throws from forward momentum. The foot work in that set-up promotes more velocity. 2) We are talking about a couple MPH even if he could not generate more velocity in the OF which is improbable. 3) His speed would have a much bigger impact on defense than 1 or 2MPH on a throw. 4) His arm would be no less of a liability a 3B. 5) The overall value of putting Lee at 3B and Lewis in the OF where he would replace an inferior player.

Then he also does not have the arm to play 3B.

We don't have to agree for you to explain your position. Tampa can't possibly underpay players. The free agency system negates that potential. They elect not to invest heavily in free agents. Their investments they have made in free agents like Morton and Eflin have been wise and their success makes it very difficult to argue they don't know what they are doing or that they don't put a good product on the field. They understand the underlinable fact that they have to produce far more per dollar spent than most of the league and they manage assets accordingly. BTW .... if there were no subsidies, owners would not elect to make less. They would pay players less unless you believe that players would not play for two-thirds of what they make. Given you don't have to go back far to get to a point where they made one-third of what they do today, I don't think that's a reasonable conclusion.

I would feel a lot more confident if I knew what they would get out of Correa and Buxton. That got very little out of the two guys that could/should carry this team. It really hurts this team if we don't get far more out of our 33m man. Buxton produced virtually nothing. This is a different team if Buxton plays to his ability. Those two players are capable of 8-10 more WAR than they produced last year. They are the key to reaching the ceiling. The other position player that we need more from is Kirilloff.

How is Tampa underpaying players?

If Lewis were to go to the outfield it would negate the need to push any of the other prospects. Lee will probably be ready soon enough and the IF would be set. Wallner and Lewis would be the starting corner OFers. It becomes really interesting when these other OF prospects start knocking at the door.

They produced less revenue because of greed? You are going to need to elaborate on this one.

Thanks for injecting some factual basis for comparison into the conversation rather than assuming the revenue disparity is purely a product of incompetence.

Depth makes for an overall strength but there will probably be teams with a better top 2 or 3. However, Varland and Canterino could end up as BP weapons and that would make for one heck of a BP when added to all the others.

I know this sound weird but they could go 12/18/15 for a total of 45 for Soler. That's only $130M this year. We would have an increase of $33M next year between Lopez / Paddack and Soler. Offset by Kepler / Vazquez / Farmer / DeSclafani and Thielbar coming off for a total of $33.5M coming off. In other words, payroll would go up equal to arbitration increases. Paddack and Castro come off after 2025 which would absorb a lot of the next round of arbitration increases. Of course, the downside is that we would have very little room to add in free agency until Lopez and Correa come off. The other potential tactic for future salary management will be to trade a couple of the more expensive arbitration players if we have backfill with players like Lee / E-rod / Gonzalez / Severino / Canterino / Prielipp / Festa etc. (The Rays SOP) That scenario has a decent chance of coming to fruition. I could see players like Wallner / Julien / Kirilloff / Ryan / Ober being traded for value and salary relief while being replaced by equal or better players. This approach would also make Soler more tradable in his final year when we hope to have E-rod / Jenkins and/or Gonzalez in the OF.

The money coming off is a consideration for sure but is it a good idea to proceed with a strategy that would require that Kepler / Vazquez / Farmer / DeSclafani and Thielbar be replaced by prospects / league minimum players? I have said that it can be managed but signing long-term contracts at this point could really bite us. As much as I want pitching, at the rate free agent pitching fails, or even trade (Mahle) I would be more inclined to take that leap with a position player given our financial position.

No. I measured payroll against total revenue to show what percentage of revenue they spent. The ratio speaks for itself and the increase in payroll speaks for itself. Payroll did not go up by the entirety of the BAM money. We don't know what other expenses BAM may have been used to fund. What we do know is that you are ignoring the fact that it existed when you insist there is no reason to reduce payroll from the 2023. Level. Obviously, between BAM and TV revenue it makes perfect sense. The $267 in revenue came from Statistica. Is this hard fact no. Is it a reasonable source? Yes. There are also other sources reporting very similar numbers. I then added $13M suggesting this seemed like a reasonable assumption for them to increase expected revenue. They mighty have forecasted no increase. I was just trying to make a reasonable assumption.

The data I compiled only goes back to 2000 (see below0. I used 90 win seasons as a measure. The Royals won a WS but they have also been the worst team in the league in terms of win record and 90 win seasons so I would not use WS wins as the only measure of success. There is no question that spending is advantageous. However, you are focused on the wrong variable. Is it willingness to spend that prevents all of us from spending another $50K/year on a better house/automobiles/ vacations or is it income. The variable that dictates signing expensive players is not willingness to spends, it's revenue. The reality is that the likelihood of any team in the bottom half of revenue winning the WS is far lower than teams in the top 10. More importantly, savvy moves that produce more for less are the only way teams with less revenue can possibly be successful. Yet, a whole lot of people are focusing 90% of their attention on acquisition sources that have produced 20% of the WAR generated by 90 win teams outside the top 10 in revenue. Win % 90 Win 1 Yankees 0.579 13 2 Dodgers 0.563 13 3 Cardinals 0.554 13 4 Braves 0.545 12 5 Red Sox 0.545 13 6 Giants 0.521 8 7 Angels 0.521 7 8 Oakland 0.518 10 9 Cleveland 0.516 10 10 Astros 0.513 8 11 Phillies 0.508 5 12 Blue Jays 0.503 3 13 TWINS 0.502 6 14 Mariners 0.499 7 15 Mets 0.499 4 16 Cubs 0.498 5 17 Tampa 0.497 9 18 White Sox 0.494 4 19 Brewers 0.493 5 20 Rangers 0.491 6 21 Nationals 0.486 5 22 Dbacks 0.484 5 23 Padres 0.474 1 24 Reds 0.471 3 25 Marlins 0.468 1 26 Tigers 0.464 4 27 Rockies 0.462 3 28 Orioles 0.453 3 29 Pirates 0.447 2 30 Royals 0.436 1

You know I have been saying the same thing about Farmer. I just can't see them moving him because of his flexibility and his career OPS of .825 against LHP. Then, I looked up Goodrum just for kicks. His lifetime OPS against LHP is .816. They are almost the same against RHP as well. The two are very similar players so I could see it happening if there was a good place to put the dollars. What if this made Soler possible? Of course, we could make a case that their career stats don't necessarily reflect what we should expect in 2024. I think Farmer is definitely the better bet but it's an interesting twist.

Yes also covers the Nets and Liberty. Therefore, operating costs are spread across three teams. I assume the Timberwolves and Links have contracts that can't be broken.

You are among a very tiny minority that recognized the BAM money. I forgot about it in my first cut. Then, it was brought up on one of the MLB radio shows long before we heard payroll would be cut.

Boy, does this hit the bullseye. If we understand that the Twins have to produce 2 WAR per dollar spent for every 1 WAR produced by the top market teams, the prerequisites to success are very apparent.

The estimate below for 2025 includes arbitration increases. The total is $120M. With 11 arbitration eligible players, that number is going to jump substantially in 2026 if some of those arbitration players perform. It could be another $15-20M. You are also making an assumption that revenue grows. It has not been growing and it's very possible TV revenue will actually be less going forward. The variable that nobody is acknowledging is that they had $30M in BAM money last year. We can't just pretend that the record spending in 2023 was not a product of that $30M windfall. They had $267M in revenue for 2022. If they forecasted a $13M increase od 2023 plus the BAM money, their forecasted revenue would have been around $310M so their $156M payroll makes sense. The BAM money is gone and TV revenue might be a touch less going forward. At 50% of revenue the budget is more likely around $140M unless attendance goes way up. Another $20M on free agents would project 2 additional wins. I doubt that boosts attendance. 1 Pablo Lopez 21,750,000 2 Joe Ryan 1,500,000 Arb-1 3 Bailey Ober 1,500,000 Arb-1 4 Chris Paddack 7,500,000 5 Matt Canterino 770,000 Relief Pitchers 6 Jhoan Duran 1,600,000 Arb-1 7 Griffin Jax 1,500,000 Arb-1 8 Brock Stewart 1,500,000 Arb-1 9 Cody Funderburk 770,000 10 Jorge Alcala 1,500,000 Arb-3 11 Matt Canterino 770,000 12 Josh Staumont 1,500,000 Arb-3 13 Justin Topa 1,700,000 Arb-2 Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 4,000,000 Arb-2 15 C. Vazquez 10,000,000 Infielders 16 Alex Kirilloff 2,500,000 Arb-2 17 Edouard Julien 770,000 18 Brooks Lee 770,000 19 Carlos Correa 33,333,000 Utility Players 20 Willi Castro 5,000,000 Arb-3 21 Royce Lewis 770,000 22 Luis Severino 770,000 23 Austin Martin 770,000 Outfielders 24 Trevor Larnach 770,000 25 Byron Buxton 15,142,857 26 Matt Wallner 770,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 119,225,857

What is the source of the $138M figure. Spotrac estimates $108M with $10M in dead money to Dozier. Fangraphs (last segment that gives totals below) estimates $114.8M. They have a total of $100M which includes the dead money to Dozier plus prearb salaries so can someone explain where is this $138M coming from? Description 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 $ due for potential buyout of Adam Frazier $2,500,000 $ due for buyout of Hunter Dozier $1,000,000 $ due for potential buyout of Chris Stratton $500,000 $ due for potential buyout of Salvador Perez $2,000,000 Estimated Payroll $114,784,571 $48,707,071 $15,707,071 $19,707,071 $30,707,071 $35,707,071 $35,707,071

They had 1 1/2 good seasons. in the past two decades. The rest of the time, they have been among the very worst team in the league. I actually have the records for every team form 2000-2022 in a spreadsheet. I have not entered last year's data. The Royals literally have the worst record (.440) in the entire league over that period and exactly one 90 win season. The Twins have the 11th best record and six 90 win seasons.

IDK if Texas was banking on it but the biggest improvement in their team was the addition or improvement of 5 prearb position players.

I knew I was missing someone.

Castro can hit RH but that does not make him a suitable to go against LHP. His career wRC+ is 91 vs LHP. Last year it was only 82. He was far better (121) from the left side. A RH outfielder would take ABs from Wallner or Kirilloff who has a career 77 wRC+ and Wallner has been far worse. Somone like Jorge would be a huge improvement to the lineup when replacing Kirilloff or Wallner.