Major League Ready

I was listening to Grant Paulson this weekend. He was talking about how AAA pitching is weaker this year as measured by Stuff+. Teams are apparently keeping more fringe arms at AAA for depth. Based on conversations he had been having with various team officials around the league, he thought this could result in players being kept at AA longer. He gave the stuff+ stats for AAA but not AA. It sounded like the pitching could be tougher at AA at this point? Anyway, it's a quirky development that might change how prospects are handled.

I would not be so sure. It could be Miranda. They have a lot more INF depth than OF depth. Santana has been good his last 100 ABs so unless they are willing to cut Margot, Miranda is just as likely to go as Larnach.

Why is Keaschall DHing every game? Is he nursing an injury? He has plus speed. Does not make sense they would give up on playing him in the field.

We never replaced Puckett either. What does that have to do with the decision to let him go and would he have contributed since we let him go? Since Rosario left his wRC+ is 89 and it’s 77 this year. He has produced .6 WAR in 3.33 years. He has basically been a replacement level player. He is hitting 177 for the year and has negative WAR. Should regret not having lost a player who has sucked for over 3 years because he has had 2 good weeks? We continue to beat this dead horse because those of you who thought it was a horrible mistake ignore that he has sucked with the exception of a playoff run with the Braves. Why on earth would we want Eddie Rosario. Is it for the below average offense or the bad defense? Rosario only produced over 3 WAR in one year (2018). He was phenomenal the 1st half of 2018 and sucked after July 1st. His wRC+ for the 2nd half of 2018 was 70. His wRC+ since then is 93. That's how long it's been since Eddie Rosario was above average.

These dominant games from SPs (Matthews / Culpepper / Nowlin / Festa and Raya) have been really encouraging. We just might finally produce a couple top of the rotation arms. Lopez, Ryan, and Ober are under team control until 2028 and SWR looking like he will stick as well. We are going to be good for a long time if some of these guys live up to their potential.

Of course not. I am saying expecting ever player on the roster in every year to be an above average MLB player, including bench players is a great goal but a bit unrealistic. Margot should be a decent bench player but he is having a poor year. Lots of free agents perform below expectations. We should not expect to be immune. See Blake Snell / Jordan Montgomery or Carlos Correa last year or Javier Baez or many other examples. We can cut him but doing so without giving him a reasonable chance would not put this organization in a favorable light with future free agents. There are countless example of players starting poorly and having a great 2nd half. I think the rush to treat veteran players as disposable is impulsive and is likely to be resented by existing and would be free agents. They are a tight group that are going to have a very bias view of what's fair and reasonable.

Not just the last three years, he is .687 for his career and the only year he has been under .675 was his 1st year in the league. He is above average against LHP which is only role he has in the playoffs. People keep saying they want a team constructed for a playoff run. There are better ways to build a team If we had the Dodgers budget but that's not the case. Expecting the twins to have bench players that are well above average players is a nice goal but unreasonable when it becomes an expectation. There is some merit in seeing what Keirsey can do. His defense and speed on the basis would be an asset if he can be a league average offensively. That certainly was not the case with Contreras or Stevenson but there is a chance Keirsey's swing holds up better against major league pitching than those two.

The problem is that Margot has been used equally against LHP and RHP this year. Margot had a 665 OPS against LHP last year, 875 in 2022 and 753 in 21. Lewis will be back soon which means Castro will be used primarily in the OF. I guess it comes down to Larnach's turf toe. If Larnach can play the OF, Margot's role could/should be a platoon against LHP. That role would be at least as valuable as having Keirsey share time with Castro / Larnach.

How do you get the most out of platoons if you get rid of all/most of your right-hand hitters? Sounds like your idea for getting the most out of platoons is to not have any. Where Margot is concerned, do you make a decision based on 45 ABs against LHP this year or do you look at career numbers?

Sometime in June .... Lares to Cedar Rapids, Culpepper to Wichita, Ohl to St. Paul. Wichita is going to have one heck of a rotation. Let's hope that translates to STP having one heck of a rotation next year. Eeles to Cedar Rapids, Keaschall / Cespedes and Olivar all look ready for Wichita, and last but not least E-Rod to STP.

I have been a Martin believer, but that belief is fading. He seems destined for a bench role. I would have SWR / Matthews / Culpepper and Keaschall above him. Maybe DeAndre as well.

Really hoping for this pitching to continue. We could have great SP depth next year with Varland / Festa / Matthews and Culpepper although I think chances are pretty good Varland ends up in the BP. That would be just fine, especially if these other guys continue to thrive.

You keep saying they made the team weaker without offering any support of that statement. Who are they playing in Polanco's place that has been less productive? How does losing a player that has produced negative WAR hurt the team? When you say "unquestionably" you should easily be able to account for how the team is weaker.

For making $19M last year?

I thought I read somewhere that teams make a couple million per game after paying the player bonuses so that's roughly what they made. My memory could be faulty so take that for what it's worth. (not much) The BAM money while widely ignored was the biggest boost to revenue/profit last year.

How are they weaker? Polanco has performed at replacement level. If DeSclafani was playing but performing at replacement level or had they signed a free agent preforming this way there would be significant criticism. If they don't get a decent player out of Gonzalez or Bowen, it's a bad trade but we are not weaker having traded a player forming at replacement level. Obviously, Polanco could turn it around but he is hurt now too. Let's not forget he was somewhat of an injury risk as well.

You make a good point. We got Ryan for a couple months of Cruz. These trades can be overwhelmingly in favor of the team trading for prospects.

I was in the minority that hated the Mahle trade so I am with you there. Texas also gave up Emmanuel Clase for Cory Kluber who did nothing for them. Chapman was not exactly a difference maker for them either. MLB has many examples of such trades. The cost of trading for established pitching can be extremely high despite the position of many fans that they are "just prospects". They could have spent big and got very little with Snell or Montgomery who were the two prime candidates. Who knows they could both turn it around and be great. We won't know the answer to the question posed in this thread until the end of the year. Now, if we say what if they had a crystal ball and signed Lugo or Flaherty. I was a proponent of using whatever funds we had for a Lugo or Flaherty type and go with the depth we already had to replace Polanco. The $5M for Santana is probably going to be a good fallback position of Kirilloff does not drastically improve. Others here suggested similar paths but that's not what was being called for here during the off-season. That call was for proven "playoff-caliber" starters. The two most popular choices do not look so good at this point in time.

You are right. They are hard to come by, but it worked out pretty well for the Rangers last year. What if they would have signed Snell? Of course, he may come around but so far not so good. Montgomery has been mediocre too.

Polanco was replaced by players that are performing significantly better than him. Had they not spent the money, they would have a better team. Therefore, the decision to reallocate his salary did not hurt them. The decision on where to spend to spend that $10.5M might turn out poorly but trading Polanco in itself was a net gain to team productivity as of this moment. There is a lot of season to play.

Below is Fangrpah's WAR since the streak began. Complaints about Kirilloff or Margot / Martin or even Vazquez are warranted but Castro is about the last guy we should be complaining about. # Name Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA xwOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR 1 Ryan Jeffers MIN 20 82 7 13 19 1 7.3% 20.7% .414 .313 .314 .390 .729 .466 209 0.2 10.4 0.1 1.4 2 Max Kepler MIN 21 76 3 13 17 1 9.2% 13.2% .265 .429 .397 .447 .662 .474 215 0.2 10.1 0.3 1.4 3 Willi Castro MIN 22 90 2 13 11 5 3.3% 16.7% .233 .391 .337 .367 .570 .404 167 0.3 7.2 1.6 1.2 4 Edouard Julien MIN 22 77 3 12 10 4 15.6% 32.5% .203 .417 .281 .403 .484 .393 159 0.2 5.4 1.2 1.0 5 Carlos Santana MIN 22 87 7 12 19 0 5.7% 17.2% .313 .241 .263 .322 .575 .383 152 0.1 5.3 -0.9 0.8 6 Byron Buxton MIN 8 27 1 7 2 1 7.4% 25.9% .217 .467 .348 .444 .565 .443 193 -0.4 2.5 0.8 0.4 7 Trevor Larnach MIN 15 58 2 11 9 0 8.6% 22.4% .151 .395 .321 .379 .472 .377 148 -0.3 2.8 -1.3 0.4 8 Carlos Correa MIN 14 59 1 10 6 0 10.2% 15.3% .135 .279 .250 .322 .385 .314 105 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 9 Jose Miranda MIN 17 63 1 11 6 0 3.2% 14.3% .150 .320 .283 .317 .433 .330 116 0.0 1.1 -0.3 0.3 10 Kyle Farmer MIN 18 35 0 4 4 0 8.6% 22.9% .125 .292 .219 .286 .344 .282 83 -0.3 -0.9 0.9 0.1 11 Christian Vázquez MIN 13 46 0 2 3 2 2.2% 32.6% .000 .300 .205 .217 .205 .190 19 0.2 -4.0 2.7 0.0 12 Austin Martin MIN 14 39 0 9 2 3 10.3% 25.6% .086 .240 .171 .256 .257 .238 53 0.5 -1.6 -2.0 -0.3 13 Manuel Margot MIN 18 41 0 4 7 2 2.4% 17.1% .051 .212 .179 .195 .231 .188 18 0.5 -3.3 -1.2 -0.3 14 Alex Kirilloff MIN 18 55 1 8 7 0 7.3% 25.5% .080 .139 .120 .182 .200 .177 11 0.1 -5.5 -1.6 -0.6

Larnach had Turf Toe and that's why he was DHing.

Wouldn't the best measure of if we would have been better off keeping Polanco be to compare his production to the players who will take Polanco's ABs over the course of the year. Lewis / Miranda / Farmer / Castro at 3B and Julien / Farmer at 2B. I guess Topa's performance is also a direct reflection. Wouldn't that be the most direct measure on this year's team. Obviously, we don't know if there is a future impact yet from Gonzalez or Bowen. The team is better off if those players produce better than Polanco. Spending the money represented another opportunity to improve the team but the baseline IMO is Polanco VS the players who replace him. I would judge the trade by : 1) How well the players that take Polanco's AB compare to Polanco's production this year; 2) What they get from Topa; 3) Do Gonzalez or Bowen become ML players which of course is still years away.

You are right. he has been a little below average against RHP this year. You are also right in that it's a SSS. He has been above average against RHP since joining the Twins and has been above average overall with a 113 wRC+ with the Twins. I think we would all agree his performance and career numbers were not great before joining the Twins. I am more inclined to be concerned with what he has done with the Twins. Shouldn't we also consider that offense in the context of a guy that can fill-in quite well as SS and CF and run the bases very well? Since last year he has 3.9 WAR which is 3rd on the team. Only Kepler who most people wanted to get rid of, and Julien who gets his share of hate have posted more WAR since the beginning of last season.

Where did I say anything about the fact the twins did these things? I said that I agreed with the poster who suggested these practices were not sustainable so why are you are posing these questions to me. I said Falvey / Cleveland did not rely on these practices in general which is supported by the historical information I posted. Indirectly, I am saying Falvey has not done the same things here that Cleveland did when he was there or what Cleveland has done for the past 20 years. BTW ... I was one of the few people here against the trade for Mahle.