Major League Ready

The first thing I would like to know is if they smart enough to have an escape clause? For example, they could have included a clause that rescinded Bally’s exclusivity in the event this type of loss of coverage went on for more than X days. How many NBA / NHL / WNBA teams will this effect if not rectified? If all of the leagues are in peril, it’s quite possible there could be collaboration between the leagues. That solution would likely be far better for fans but that sort of thing does not come together in a short period of time. Is this what MLB wants? I would guess they want to get out from underneath all of these contracts that have exclusivity rights. It’s going to be a hit for the league/teams when that happens but it seems inevitable. Does MLB / NBA / NHL / WNBA hoping to buy the pieces at auction and start their own network? We will never the whole story but this cluster has many layers that need to be understood before we know what was and was not possible.

Since the start of the win streak, Julien has a wRC+ of 168, Kirilloff 37. Julien has had a couple bad games where Kirilloff has looked lost the last couple weeks. What's weird is he looked pretty locked in before the streak. Sure would like to have good Alex back. BTW .... The streak started the day Max Kepler came back from injury. Since then, he has a 243 wRC+. In other news, we are on pace to win 95 games.

We finally came to the point. You and I have come to different conclusions as to why teams in the bottom half of revenue win WS very infrequently. You have concluded that the teams in the bottom half of revenue just don’t do manage all of the aspects you mentioned adequately. I think big markets are going to have people equally adapt at creating and managing the strategies you outlined. Obviously, some will be better than others but some of the big market teams are going to do these things just as well as the best small/mid market team. I think the difference is that if the Twins can spend $6M/player on a 26-man roster. The Dodgers can spend that same $6M/Player on 20 players and sign six $30M/AAV players. That advantage shows up in the playoffs when the additional talent is Betts / Ohtani / Freeman / Yamamoto / Glasnow / and Hernandez. I don't think history is screaming they are not doing the right things. I think it's screaming that it's really hard to beat a team that sll other things being equal has the advantage of adding six superstars.

I apologize the question was not clear. I am not interested asking what you want or how you would do it. I am wondering if you think there is a team or teams in this group that are being managed in a way that promotes winning a WS. That's a related by quite different question. Obviously, I am wondering if you think it's the Twins or is there not a single group of FO professionals among this group that understands how to win a WS. Reading the totality of your posts in this thread, it would appear you don't believe any of these teams understand how to win a WS.

Not asking to turn the thread into anything and I am not asking you to go through all 15 teams. Simply asking you to pick a team or two utilizing strategies you feel are likely to produce a WS Champion. Real simple. Which team(s) or is there not any team following strategies that will produce a WS winner in your opinion.

I understand you would manage the team differently but that's not at all what I asked. I asked what team is employing strategies that would be more likely to lead to a WS. You have stated repeatedly that's all you care about so it seems appropriate to ask what team is following strategies that promote this goal unless you don't believe any team in the bottom half of revenue understands how to build a WS winner. BTW ... spending ability is not an "owner thing". It's a revenue thing. It would be so great if a TD writer would put together a comparison of payroll as a percentage of revenue. Then, we would know just exactly how the Pohlad's rank in terms willingness to spend. Again, the question is which team(s) are following strategies more likely to produce a WS winner. Is there a team we should follow or is there not a single team in the bottom half of revenue that understands how to build a WS winner?

Which of the teams in the bottom half of revenue do you believe are following strategies more likely to produce a WS winner? Based on previous posts I am assuming you believe spending and therefore spending capacity influences winning. They obviously can't follow the Dodger's strategy, so, which team with the same spending capacity would you prefer they follow? Should they follow the strategies of the teams that have had a better win record since 2017? Win % 1 Tampa 0.573 2 Brewers 0.555 3 Cleveland 0.551 4 TWINS 0.521 5 Mariners 0.514 6 Oakland 0.485 7 Dbacks 0.480 8 Padres 0.479 9 Rockies 0.461 10 White Sox 0.457 11 Reds 0.453 12 Marlins 0.435 13 Pirates 0.431 14 Orioles 0.424 15 Tigers 0.407 16 Royals 0.405

If that's what you got from my post, IDK what to say.

The winning a world series metric has become an idealistic measure over the past 20 years. There have been two teams in the bottom half of revenue to win the WS over that period of time and none since Falvey took over. KC got there by being terrible for a very long time. If we use 92+ win seasons. There has only been (41) 92+ win seasons among the bottom 16 revenue in the past 20 years. 26 of them were produced by Cleveland (7), Tampa Bay (6), Oakland (5), Twins (4) and Brewers (4). The other 11 teams managed a grand total of (15) 92+ win seasons. That's 15 seasons out of a possible 300. Teams in the bottom half of revenue have won 92+ games in 13% of all seasons. Maybe we should all pick a 2nd team. I just accept the reality that it's far from a level playing field.

The most successful teams among the group you referenced did not have a free agent making more than $16M/year. That was Cain for Milwaukee in 2018 in in the first year of a 5 year deal. He produced 2.5 WAR over the remaining 4 years. The last team in this group (KC) to win a world series did not have a free agent that produced more than 1.5 WAR. The teams that produced the most from free agency did so by getting the highest percentage of WAR/Dollar spent. That's most often a combination of mid-tier free agents like Cain that have a great year or inexpensive guys that produce 2-3 WAR. % of Cost WINS WAR per WAR 2019 Twins 101 30% 3.357 Cruz 13M / Gonzalez 10.5 / Castro 8.2 / Pineda 5 / Perez 3.5 2018 Brewers 96 29% 3.403 Cain / 16M / Chacin / 7.75 / Miley 2.5 2019 Rays 96 26% 1.968 Morton / 15M / Garcia 3.5 / D'Arnaud 1 2013 Pirates 94 29% 1.878 Liriano / Martin 7.5 / Grili 3.4 2012 Athletics 94 47% 1.877 Cespedes 9M / Crisp 8.5 / Balfour 4.1 / Colon 2 / Gomes 1

Again, agree they should be looking for a long-term deal. Why should they sign a long-term deal that would assure them of being at a disadvantage to the rest of the league? Wouldn't it make sense to sign a stop gap deal while they (and the league) work on a better solution? Is it possible that the league pushed hard for this approach?

Absolutely no disagreement from me that the current model is not viable long-term. The question is if the model you proposed is viable long-term. An over the air provider is not going to sign a 1 or 2 year contract. That broadcaster has to buy equipment, hire many people, and invest existing resources to take on this endeavor. Let's hope MLB and the team of industry experts they brought in to develop a new distribution model have something better in the works. That would explain why the Twins have not opted for the solution you outlined.

Much respect Cody for posting this article. What can most people say. The majority here and the most vocal have absolutely insisted that they are incompetent and anyone who can’t see that is a moron. How do we account for the most qualified people in the industry having a 180 degree difference in opinion. Is the entire industry filled with incompetent buffoons or is it possible fans are not the best judge of how a team should be run? I hope this calms down the constant cries of incompetence.

Since joining the team, Casto has produced 3.8 WAR, 2nd only to Edouard Julien. He is not going anywhere unless he is very mediocre the rest of the season. 1 Edouard Julien MIN 140 525 23 76 51 5 15.4% 31.4% .211 .349 .254 .372 .465 .366 137 -1.1 21.8 -0.1 4.0 2 Willi Castro MIN 155 525 11 75 46 36 8.0% 25.3% .161 .343 .262 .341 .423 .334 115 5.2 14.3 6.0 3.8 3 Ryan Jeffers MIN 124 446 19 62 64 4 9.2% 25.3% .224 .349 .282 .373 .505 .379 146 -2.1 21.9 -0.7 3.7 4 Max Kepler MIN 145 549 25 77 76 2 9.3% 20.9% .211 .288 .260 .332 .470 .344 121 -2.6 11.5 1.4 3.2 5 Royce Lewis MIN 59 241 16 37 53 6 8.3% 22.8% .251 .358 .315 .378 .566 .402 161 -0.5 17.0 0.2 2.5 6 Carlos Correa MIN 150 642 19 68 70 0 10.7% 22.6% .163 .279 .233 .319 .396 .312 99 -3.1 -3.8 4.7 2.3 7 Michael A. Taylor MIN 129 388 21 48 51 13 6.7% 33.5% .223 .278 .220 .278 .442 .308 96 3.0 0.9 6.1 2.0 8 Matt Wallner MIN 89 287 15 43 45 2 10.8% 33.8% .248 .315 .231 .359 .479 .363 134 0.3 12.2 -6.4 1.6 9 Kyle Farmer MIN 146 438 11 56 51 4 7.1% 22.8% .139 .290 .238 .308 .377 .301 92 -0.7 -4.8 4.6 1.4 10 Jorge Polanco MIN 80 343 14 38 48 4 10.5% 25.7% .199 .310 .255 .335 .454 .340 118 -0.1 7.3 -4.7 1.4 11 Byron Buxton MIN 113 447 18 61 53 10 8.5% 31.5% .210 .281 .217 .295 .427 .310 98 4.1 3.2 -5.8 1.3 12 Donovan Solano MIN 134 450 5 43 38 0 8.9% 22.2% .109 .366 .282 .369 .391 .338 116 -2.9 6.0 -9.0 1.2 13 Christian Vázquez MIN 121 421 7 39 37 3 6.4% 23.8% .088 .279 .222 .273 .309 .258 62 -3.8 -22.8 19.9 1.1 14 Alex Kirilloff MIN 116 419 13 49 51 1 8.6% 24.3% .181 .327 .265 .339 .446 .340 119 -1.8 7.6 -13.0 0.9 15 Joey Gallo MIN 111 332 21 39 40 1 14.5% 42.8% .262 .244 .177 .301 .440 .320 104 0.3 1.8 -4.8 0.8 16 Trevor Larnach MIN 70 256 10 35 48 1 12.5% 31.6% .204 .323 .240 .332 .443 .335 115 -0.1 4.2 -6.1 0.7 17 Jordan Luplow MIN 32 73 2 10 4 2 12.3% 26.0% .143 .262 .206 .315 .349 .298 89 1.0 0.0 -0.6 0.2 18 Andrew Stevenson MIN 25 40 0 4 1 4 5.0% 20.0% .027 .241 .189 .250 .216 .216 32 0.3 -2.9 1.6 0.0 19 Kyle Garlick MIN 14 30 2 2 4 0 6.7% 36.7% .250 .200 .179 .233 .429 .280 77 -0.1 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 20 Austin Martin MIN 23 69 1 17 6 2 8.7% 18.8% .143 .265 .222 .290 .365 .294 91 0.2 -0.5 -2.3 -0.1 21 Carlos Santana MIN 28 115 4 9 13 0 7.8% 17.4% .146 .190 .184 .270 .330 .270 75 -0.1 -3.4 -1.1 -0.1 22 Manuel Margot MIN 26 63 1 7 3 1 11.1% 23.8% .073 .225 .182 .270 .255 .245 58 0.4 -2.6 -1.8 -0.3 23 Jose Miranda MIN 59 212 5 17 21 1 5.2% 16.0% .121 .263 .236 .283 .357 .283 80 0.1 -5.2 -4.9 -0.3 24 Nick Gordon MIN 34 93 2 13 7 0 1.1% 11.8% .143 .179 .176 .185 .319 .213 30 0.5 -7.3 -0.5 -0.5

Do you think this model is viable long-term? Would this model generate less TV revenue than every team in MLB?

Are you really saying the Twins should screw over their current customers because they elect to subscribe to Comcast / DirecTV / others in order to service clients that have been unwilling to pay for service? Why is it a bad plan to service the current clients while MLB and/or the Twins roll-out a new option next year?

Very good point. They were probably surprised by Amazon jumping in. This could also explain why MLB would want the Twins to keep the status quo for one more year. They would still have a problem if the teams demanded MLB as the new owner of Diamonds sports to honor the existing contracts. All of the teams would have to agree to a new revenue model specific to local broadcasts to make acquiring Diamond a viable plan.

Ever heard the saying you can never have too much pitching?

The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Astros already have their own channel. All of the other markets are going to be in jeopardy as the RSN model likely continues to struggle with situations like Comcast. It seems RSNs will have to go to subscription based model that can't possibly allow them to pay the current rates on existing contracts. MLB hired a group of industry experts to come up with a solution. My guess is that solution could not be rolled out for this season. BTW ... MLB had record revenues again last year. The doom and gloom is not warranted. They have a problem with distribution that is going to be hard to navigate. It would have been much easier to evolve into a new model if Diamond and the existing contracts would have gone away. Some teams would have really took it in the shorts short-term but eliminating those contracts would have provided a wide-open path to a new distribution model. I wonder how feasible it would be for MLB / NBA / NFL / NHL / WNBA and the various soccer leagues to form a partnership and develop a new network distributed on their own streaming platform and also distributed through any other medium that wishes to partner. Obviously, that's a lot of interests to meld but those other sports must anticipate similar problems. Perhaps they should have attempted to buy Bally's when they were in bankruptcy.

You are only looking at defensive stats. I would hope the Twins determine who plays by determining the net runs gained or lost on both sides of the ball. It does not matter if player X will give up 10 less runs than Julien if Julien produces 20 more runs than player X with the bat. Of course, the same is true of Castro. I seriously doubt the net of Casto's defense / offense and base running is less than Framer at this point. Their WAR stat would support this conclusion.

Correct me if I am wrong. Twin’s fans fall into 3 groups. 1) Fan’s currently paying an over the air carrier $80+/month for Twins / Wolves / Lynx / Other. 2) Those who have a streaming package for the Twins or Twins + Other MLB teams. 3) Those who are unhappy with 1&2 and are unwilling to pay for either form of coverage. All of the members of group 1 would have obviously been screwed had the twins not resigned with Bally's.. Group 2 has remained the same. Group 3 would have a new solution. If this solution was inexpensive, this group would be happy. Members of group 3 feel the Twins should have forced the current paying customers to drop their current provider and switch or pay both providers if they wish to keep coverage for the TWolves/Lynx and all of the other channels their family wants to keep so that they could have a cheaper option. I understand the desire for a better streaming option but the insistence that the Twins are incompetent because they took $40M+ from Bally’s to continue servicing their paying customers is where some of you lose me. Wait a year. Would anyone bet there won’t be a streaming option next year? It seems to me this outcry is over one more year of things remaining the same while MLB not just the Twins roll-out a solution for group 3 and any group 1 or 2 members who WANT to switch.

I don't disagree even a little, but Comcast has 17.5M subscribers. DirecTV has 11M, etc. Should we ignore their right to choose because we prefer a different product? Those people would have been forced to find a different solution. All I am saying is that both sides of the equation should be considered. It's easy to ignore what those people want when you are not one of them.

Castro's value is filling in for injured players across several positions or guys getting a day off and doing it quite well. He had 2.5 bWAR last year and already has 1.1 this year. He is on a 6 WAR pace. Let's say he only gets half way there. (3 WAR). He covers the role of 2 bench players and that flexibility producing 2.5 WAR or more is not too expensive. Quite the opposite. He is a valuable piece. IDK that I would extend him but I sure keep him here next year.

The offensive numbers during the streak are crazy. Carlos Santana had a wRC+ of 171 and that was 8th best on the team. Wow! Let's bask in it while we can. # Name Team PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP UBR wGDP XBR wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 1 Trevor Larnach MIN 25 16.0% 20.0% 0.80 .429 .520 .667 1.187 .238 2.6 .533 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 7 4.0 .513 241 2 Ryan Jeffers MIN 41 9.8% 12.2% 0.80 .394 .488 .697 1.185 .303 4.6 .407 0.3 0.2 0.1 11 6.1 .502 233 3 Willi Castro MIN 44 0.0% 18.2% 0.00 .419 .432 .721 1.153 .302 6.9 .500 0.2 0.1 -0.5 11 6.4 .496 229 4 Edouard Julien MIN 37 16.2% 29.7% 0.55 .300 .432 .700 1.132 .400 1.6 .375 0.0 0.1 -0.1 9 4.9 .480 218 5 Jose Miranda MIN 25 0.0% 12.0% 0.00 .400 .400 .680 1.080 .280 0.9 .429 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 6 3.1 .468 210 6 Byron Buxton MIN 27 7.4% 25.9% 0.29 .348 .444 .565 1.010 .217 4.8 .467 0.4 0.1 -0.7 6 2.8 .445 194 7 Max Kepler MIN 33 12.1% 9.1% 1.33 .393 .455 .571 1.026 .179 4.4 .400 -0.1 0.1 0.1 7 3.4 .443 193 8 Carlos Santana MIN 44 6.8% 13.6% 0.50 .256 .341 .615 .956 .359 1.6 .207 0.0 0.1 -0.1 9 3.5 .412 171 9 Kyle Farmer MIN 23 8.7% 21.7% 0.40 .238 .304 .381 .685 .143 2.6 .313 0.1 0.0 0.0 3 -0.1 .306 99 10 Christian Vázquez MIN 26 3.8% 34.6% 0.11 .320 .346 .320 .666 .000 4.9 .500 0.1 -0.1 0.3 3 -0.2 .303 97 11 Alex Kirilloff MIN 28 10.7% 25.0% 0.43 .208 .286 .375 .661 .167 2.6 .235 0.0 -0.2 0.0 3 -0.4 .292 89 12 Manuel Margot MIN 16 6.3% 18.8% 0.33 .214 .250 .286 .536 .071 7.1 .250 0.1 -0.1 0.2 1 -0.9 .236 51 13 Austin Martin MIN 24 12.5% 25.0% 0.50 .143 .250 .238 .488 .095 7.5 .200 0.2 0.1 0.4 1 -1.5 .231 48 14 Carlos Correa MIN 14 14.3% 21.4% 0.67 .167 .286 .167 .452 .000 2.6 .222 0.0 0.1 0.0 1 -0.9 .228 45

I merely wanted to point out that every customer of Comcast, DirecTV, or other carriers would have been left out had they not signed a deal with Bally's. This is being ignored. Very few households / families have Comcast just for Bally's so it's not as simple as you suggest. Most people have Comcast, DirecTV, etc for a variety of programming. Therefore, many would still have that expense and still be paying for their current services. BTW ... You ignored the part of my post that stated "Should we blame the customers who continue to rely upon an outdated model. I don't think so."