Major League Ready

I recall you saying the same thing about Miranda.

What if .... Miranda, Severino and Lee are still producing at this level a month from now AND we get a substantial offer for Santana or Farmer or both? Santana would bring something back if he plays like he has been for the next month. Obviously, how the teams looks in terms of being a legit contender plays into the decision but this could be a very interesting trade deadline.

Morris and Severino have been somewhat under the radar guys but they will be front in center if they keep performing as they have of late. Severino's last 100 ABs. 436 / 564 / 744 / 1.308. His K rate is down to 21% and his walk rate is 22% over those last 100 ABs. Santana has an OPS of 1.006 in his last 100ABs. Miranda's OPS is 897 over the same period so what the heck can you do if Severino keeps this up?

I would stick with Martin for now and keep Jax. Absolute no-brainer. Then, next year, add Roderiguez who hits LHP just as well as RHP.

I would not bet on him keeping it up but that was not the topic here now, was it? I don't know what is going to happen, but I am sure of what has happened, and the topic is what Santana has done. Perhaps more specifically, how has Santana compared to the best AL 1B. Why are you comparing him to players at different positions? Why not just compare him to other AL 1B as Ted suggested which is far more germane to the Ted's assertion that he is not so far off from being an all-star. Of course, Ted's position assumes all-star voting is purely a product of performance which is unfortunately not exactly true. Seems like you did not like the signing, so you are unable to give credit where it is due. The man has played well. We are going to get far more out of Santana than we would have gotten from keeping Polanco.

It will be interesting to see how they fit all of the pieces. Lewis could play the Castro role at some point with the emphasis on could. He could be the next Ben Zobrist. I am really pulling for Brooks Lee to make the roster situation as difficult as possible by playing very well.

Makes me wonder just a tiny bit if they have plans outside of 3B for Lewis. Remember, I said a "tiny bit". I doubt this is the case but it makes me wonder just a little.

If you were to look at the log, you would find a very clear point where he turned it around. That point was April 20th. To that point he had played in 16 games and had 63 PAs. You are exaggerating by roughly 2X. Yes, I do think fan angst over a 16 game (63 PA) slump is unwarranted when the man has provided the value has since then. That said, I would not have a problem with them trading him at the deadline if they could get something for him to make room for Wallner or Lee if they keep it going and inserting Miranda at 1B. Hell, Severino is a candidate too if he keeps blistering AAA.

Good point Ted. That's what I did after reading the title. As of this morning, he is 2nd among American League 1B. That's closer than I thought. Yes, he had a bad three weeks in April since then his wRC+ is 150 and he has produced 1.7 WAR. You are going to get grief because the majority of posters hated the signing. There were still people wanting him cut a couple weeks ago.

Thanks. I looked on B-Ref previously and missed it. It's hard to form an opinion on if these guys are likely to hit same hand pitching without looking at their Milb numbers.

I hated the Cavaco pick and did not care for the Sabato pick. The rest are not remotely in the same league. Canterino and Prielipp were good picks. Tyler Jay is another one I really disliked and I was not big on Gordon either.

I would be just fine with them getting an A ball pitcher for Farmer to make room for one of the prospects that are on a roll. It's least there is a chance that one day they turn into Luis Gil.

Martin has actually been a little better against RHP at the ML level. Where can Milb splits be found?

The Nationals are a 500 team with a lot of young talent and more coming, including James Wood who is a potential superstar. They are not trading Gore who only has 2 years service time. He will be a piece they build around, They will trade expiring contracts or perhaps a player that will become a free agent after next year. Would anyone trade a top tier SP that is not a free agent at the end of this year for a package headlined by Gonzalez? I highly doubt it. The package for Cease was a haul. Chicago got a 55 FV prospect and two 50 FV prospects. The 4th player was Steven Wilson who was not a top prospect but is pitching at the ML level. So, something like Rodriguez, Festa, Raya, and Morris. What is the point of trading for a player that is not the caliber of Cease or better? A playoff caliber SP is going to cost a lot more than Gonzalez.

Severino's surge started a few days after Wallner. Since 5/29, Severino's numbers are even crazier than Wallner's. For the last 15 games (67 PAs) Severino's line is (.412 .552 .784 1.337). It sure would be great if these guys have found something. Wouldn't it be great if we are still talking about production anywhere near this 2-3 weeks from now!

Actually, I am looking at the game log to see if his production has been up and down or did he clearly take off at a given point. That would tell us just how long he has sustained success. He had an OPS of .686 for 5/1-5/25. His incredible numbers blast off after 5/25 very clearly pulling up the overall numbers to something near 1.000 if you use a 5/1 start date. That in no way suggests he has been playing well since 5/1. It suggests he has been hitting at an incredible pace that make his numbers since 5/1 look good if you don't bother to look at the game log.

That's not really an accurate portrayal. From May 1 to May 24 his line was ( .192 .290 .397 .688) His first 32 after being sent down his line was ( .187 .275 .358 .632). He has put up video game numbers the last 20 games. (.346 .424 .827 1.251) Those numbers are so good they make it look like he has been better over a longer a period if you don't inspect the numbers beyond using a May 1 starting date. It's just not accurate at all to say he has been hot for longer than 3 weeks. I don't know what to think. I really want to believe but I don't see anything different in his swing. One the other hand, he is absolutely abusing AAA pitching right now. Let's hope he has found something that translates to the ML level. We need him long-term.

I have not seen him pitch 1 inning this year but I can look at the stats and say that I am also not excited about a guy with an ERA over 5.

Yep, the Orioles should just DFA that worthless kid they brought up earlier this year. Seriously, you know how this works. Borrowing Mike Sixel's description .... Development is not linear. Most of us understand that the most crucial aspect of building a contender in a market outside the top 1/3 in revenue is development. So, go ahead and root for the thing that is absolutely essential to success and ignore those who for some reason seem to hope a prospect fails.

Is there a difference between being worth next to nothing vs nothing in this case? The upside is far greater than the downside at this point. Not the time to sell.

Look at what is going on in Atlanta. Ozzie Albies is an all-star. His wRC+ is 92. Michael Harris / 84 Austin Riley / 82 and Adam Duval 69. Even Acuna Jr. is just slightly above average. Were they good last year because the coaching was better? We should not be surprised by inconsistency. Makes you appreciate just how hard the game is at that level.

I would have let Varland go until he allowed a base runner. However, I never played Milb or MLB. I have not had countless discussions with MLB pitchers and pitching coaches and I have not experienced the game from inside the dugout or the clubhouse and I don't know Louie Varland. Understanding stats is not all that difficult. The experience and critical thinking skills, and leadership ability to use them in the broader context of managing a team not so simple. Your post is appreciated by some of us even if those who think they are better equipped to manage a MLB team lash out at you.

He also has not been the problem the last month so the point Linus makes is far more germane to improving the team at the moment than what Farmer (a bench player) is doing. There are 7 players getting far more playing time of late that are performing worse than Farmer. # Name Team PA BB% K% BB/K AVG OBP SLG OPS ISO Spd BABIP UBR wGDP XBR wSB wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+ 1 Edouard Julien MIN 51 5.9% 33.3% 0.18 .188 .235 .208 .444 .021 5.3 .290 0.0 0.1 0.3 2 -4.2 .205 31 2 Christian Vázquez MIN 52 1.9% 13.5% 0.14 .163 .192 .286 .478 .122 2.5 .167 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 2 -4.1 .209 33 3 Max Kepler MIN 92 5.4% 22.8% 0.24 .179 .242 .286 .527 .107 2.5 .226 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 6 -5.1 .239 54 4 Ryan Jeffers MIN 89 9.0% 29.2% 0.31 .141 .239 .295 .534 .154 3.1 .163 0.3 0.2 0.1 6 -4.5 .244 58 5 Trevor Larnach MIN 71 9.9% 16.9% 0.58 .175 .254 .333 .587 .159 2.9 .163 -0.1 0.1 0.1 6 -2.6 .262 70 6 Byron Buxton MIN 74 5.4% 28.4% 0.19 .203 .257 .362 .619 .159 7.2 .244 0.6 0.1 0.3 6 -2.0 .274 78 7 Alex Kirilloff MIN 62 11.3% 32.3% 0.35 .167 .258 .370 .628 .204 1.0 .188 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 6 -1.5 .277 80 8 Kyle Farmer MIN 36 2.8% 19.4% 0.14 .219 .306 .313 .618 .094 5.2 .280 0.1 0.0 -0.3 3 -0.7 .284 85 9 Carlos Correa MIN 111 7.2% 21.6% 0.33 .260 .306 .450 .756 .190 3.6 .303 0.1 0.2 -0.2 14 1.1 .321 110 10 Jose Miranda MIN 90 3.3% 14.4% 0.23 .259 .289 .459 .748 .200 2.5 .261 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 11 1.0 .322 111 11 Willi Castro MIN 110 12.7% 20.9% 0.61 .225 .373 .315 .687 .090 7.3 .292 0.3 0.1 0.3 14 1.3 .324 112 12 Carlos Santana MIN 90 11.1% 16.7% 0.67 .250 .333 .438 .771 .188 2.6 .262 0.0 0.1 0.0 13 2.3 .340 124 13 Manuel Margot MIN 54 9.3% 9.3% 1.00 .313 .389 .417 .806 .104 6.9 .349 0.2 -0.1 0.1 8 2.1 .359 136 14 Royce Lewis MIN 26 7.7% 19.2% 0.40 .261 .308 .696 1.003 .435 0.8 .188 -0.3 0.0 0.0 5 2.1 .411 172

I am not all that optimistic on Prielipp. I liked that pick at the time and it's been such a disappointment, so I continue to hope he gets healthy at some point. It would just be such a great boost if he finally stayed healthy.

You think 1 SP puts them on the level of the Yankees, Orioles, Dodgers, and Phillies? I don't think one SP even puts them on the level of Cleveland. We need to accumulate talent to get over the hump. Throwing away 6 year assets for 1/2 year assets in support of a mediocre team is not the way to get over the hump.