Major League Ready
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Everything posted by Major League Ready
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How does the team get better by putting players in the lineup that are 50% below league average? This simply defies logic. If you want to argue they would eventually get better against LHP I would say that's certainly possible. I would even understand the investment in the future. However, as of this moment they have established they are far below average against LHP and therefore a liability against LHP.
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- david festa
- carlos santana
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My bad. I didn't catch that part of it. I would not have minded if they took Cam Caminiti instead of Culpepper with their 1st round pick.
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It's quite possible that Larnach and Wallner would eventually become adequate hitters against LHP. However, at the present, Larnach has a career wRC+ of 57 vs LHP and Wallner is at 43. How would they be better right now?
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- david festa
- carlos santana
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They drafted 12 college pitchers and 1 prep pitcher this year. 12 & 2 last year. That trend has been going on for a few years. I doubt we see them drafting enough prep arms to call it a focus.
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It would be fun to look back at the threads about signing both Correa and Buxton. There were people who were emphatic about signing Correa even when it was for 12 years. Very few were opposed to the deal he eventually signed. I also recall posters cursing the front office saying they did not know what they were doing because they were unwilling to give him a huge guarantee. I remember one post that suggested they were not serious about winning and basically incompetent because they were starting at a $150M guarantee. You might well have been among the minority who did not want these players signed but TD was in general very supportive of signing Correa and Buxton.
- 33 replies
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Very true but I was addressing the very firmly held assumption by some that the reason the Twins won’t catch Cleveland is because of spending. Cleveland is spending less and KC the same so that position is misguided. Why isn’t anyone asking how these teams were constructed? Did KC and Cleveland sign their superstars as free agents. Did they trade prospects for them? They drafted and extended them. That said, the Angels (Traut and Ohtani) are proof that having a superstar or even two is of no value without a team around them. What we should be asking is how successful teams with similar or less revenue accumulated enough talent to be legit contenders. What percentage of their high contributing players were drafted or acquired as prospects vs free agency or trading for established players? There is not one person among those insisting the answer is spending that has shown these acquisition methods are prominent strategies among teams in the bottom half of revenue. The first clue should be that Cleveland does not have a single free agent contributing to their team nor do they have a player that was acquired as an established player.
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- carlos correa
- byron buxton
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Someone arguing about finances that actually understands finance. What a concept! Thanks for making the effort to actually illustrate the expense structure. I have put the numbers in a spreadsheet a couple different years trying to estimate their operating costs. Most years the net profit looks to be 5-10%. It sure would be great if one of the TD writers would compare the Twins spending vs revenue to the rest of the league. I have done it for a few years so I have a reasonable idea but it would be great to see if the cheap Pohlad reputation is accurate or a product of being uninformed.
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- charlee soto
- brandon winokur
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KC and the Twins followed used some similar tactics. The Twins spent their FA / extension money on Correa / Buston and Lopez. The Royals spent their money on Perez / Lugo and Wacha. Perez is playing great while Buxton and Correa are on the IL. Lugo has been better the Lopez. Wacha has been about the same. Both teams landed an important part of their rotation by trading away players at the deadline. If we look at KC, I would conclude they have gotten more out of modest priced free agents. They have stayed healthy, and they got one hell of a gift when they traded a rental for Reagans. BTW … Lugo and Wacha were not at the top of the list here at TD. Cleveland is getting absolutely zero contributions for free agents or proven players acquired by trade. 37% of their WAR is from drafted players. 22% from International drafted players. 41% from players acquired as prospects and they don’t have any free agents. So, how does one look at Cleveland and their 107M payroll and a roster with no free agents and conclude the reason the Guardians are ahead in the standings is the Twins cut spending?
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What do you suggest they do about their "superstars" being injured. How would you rectify that situation?
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You are on a reasonable track but it's not the measure I would use. During covid it was widely reported that gate receipts and other attendance related spending represented roughly 40% of revenue. Why use a measure that represents 40% of revenue instead of just using total revenue? At least you are associating revenue with spending. Every responsible adult determines the amount they spend based on the amount they bring in. So does every other for-profit business in the world. I really wish a TD reporter would take it upon themselves to write an article this off-season that provided a revenue vs spending comparison for every team in the league. That would definitively illustrate how the Pohlads rate in terms of willingness to spend.
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Get Varland up here and see if he can be relied upon during the playoffs. Hopefully Paddack and Topa will be available for the playoffs. Funderburk would be a nice contributor if they can get him back soon. Winder could eat some innings if needed. No to the rest.
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Of course, they have made trades. Do you really think I was not aware of the trades of Thomas and Cobb or other deadline trades in the past? I qualified my statement by saying "significant trades". The kind where you give up significant assets like the Padres did for Scott and Houston did for Kikuchi. I don't give a crap about the inconsequential trades they didn't make. If you want to bitch about those go ahead. Please quit ignoring the parts of my posts like "significant trades" when it gets in the way of your narrative. There are some examples of significant moves in the history of the teams I mentioned but in general they have been very reluctant to part with good prospects. Did you miss the fact they have produced 44% of their WAR from acquiring prospects. That tells you a lot about their philosophies, practices, and what has been responsible for their success. I don't worry about the Twins not going all in because I understand that the teams that have been successful understand that trading away assets that produce for 6 years for rentals is a good way to never have enough talent to contend in the first place.
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We definitely agree on this.
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Big deal! Really? That's your answer. Lane Thomas and Alex Cobb? Lane Thomas is playing at replacement level and Alex Cobb is 36 years old coming off an injury. You want Alex Cobb starting a playoff game?
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Their lack of success in the playoffs is not proof that trading for established players is the best strategy. You would need to look at the league as a whole and more specifically teams with similar or less revenue. Which teams with similar or less revenue that have been the most successful getting to the playoffs and playoff success. Which teams have been the most successful? Have they spent significant prospect capital to gain that success? The answer is Cleveland and Oakland have been the most successful followed by Tampa. These teams very rarely trade prospects of significance and they have been the most successful. If you look at Cleveland's 7 best teams over the past couple of decades, they produced 44.5% of WAR from players acquired as prospects vs 10.1% from trading for established players or free agents. The bar I am using for established player is they had one season where they produced 1.5 WAR. I can appreciate your frustration with the lack of playoff success but if you are looking for proof of concept, looking at the actual history of success for teams with similar revenue is the way to do it. The organizations producing the best teams are not following strategies that are often professed here.
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The couple million dollars is irrelevant. Putting a good product on the field more often drives viewership an attendance as well as brand loyalty. Trading assets that produce for 6 years for assets that produce for a couple months does not promote sustained success. It's always about money but your interpretation of the value proposition is a microcosm of the financial picture. Producing a good product more often will have monumentally more impact than spending 2 or $3M dollars in a given year.
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Heard on MLB radio today that after last night's loss the twins ARE 54-4 when leading after 7 innings.
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How many games have Correa / Buxton / Lewis and Miranda all been healthy? I recall Miranda getting some starts at 1B (8 starts) but I don't recall who was available. Lewis and Correa both being healthy allowed them to use Castro at 2B. That full complement of players also provides a better bat at DH against RHP. Let's see if Miranda is held out if/when that full compliment of players is back.
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There we are a lot of people who said we should not count on Miranda, Larnach or Wallner as well as SWR. That said, I seriously doubt they would count on Julien or Kirilloff but they will get a chance to earn a spot at some point.
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The famous outburst from John Mcenroe (you can't be serious) comes to mind.
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We are not there yet but it would be great if we developed enough starting pitching to make that a good move.
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I think SWR is a solid bet to be in the rotation at the start of 2025. Then, I would like to see Matthews do so well they give him the final spot and trade Paddack this off-season. The 2025 rotation is Lopez / Ryan / Ober / SWR and Matthews with Festa / Varland / Morris for depth.
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Reviewing the Jorge Polanco Trade
Major League Ready replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
You have the luxury as a fan or not caring about anything except 2024. That position will get a CBO / GM fired in baseball and any other industry. I am going to watch Twins baseball in 2025 and beyond so I want someone running the show that balances the present and future. The whole best player thing is an oversimplification. It does not matter if Polanco was the best player traded. It's one thing if you can't replace that best player. It's entirely another thing if you can replace or improve upon that player's production at 2B / 3B and use the incremental funds to improve the team which is exactly what they did.- 63 replies
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- jorge polanco
- justin topa
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Harper was not a 1B and I said that hit like Correa / Lindor. Do you really think that Correa / Lindor are equivalent offensively to Harper and Freeman. Career OPS: Correa .825 Lindor .813 Harper .912 Freeman .901
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If it's a fallacy, why doesn't a 1B that hits like Correa or Lindor get paid like Correa or Lindor? It's much easier to find a 1B that is a well above average hitter than it is to find a catcher, CF or SS. Therefore, an elite hitter in a premium defensive position provides a team with an advantage.
