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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I thought your post was very accurate. I meant the concept was misrepresented in general not that you misrepresented it. Writers and fans in this industry represent the cost paid per WAR in free agency is a measure of what something cost as opposed to value or what a given team, is willing to pay. You point out in your post that the actual target is different than the cost so I am not sure where we differ.
  2. Major League Ready
    By this logic, if player 1 produces 4 WAR in 80 Games, and player 2 produces 2 WAR in 80 games and player 3 produces 0 WAR, they all have the same value. Does this seem logical? Would you prefer to roster Player 1 or Player 3.
  3. Major League Ready
    I really like what Atlanta is done too but they are not a mid-market team. Atlanta is the 10th largest city in the US and the Braves are top 5 in revenue. Mid-market (average revenue or below) teams can't emulate their spending. What successful team(s) with the equivalent of the Twin's revenue would you emulate.
  4. Major League Ready
    This value proposition is conceptually misrepresented. It's a production measure not a value measure. In other words, on average free agent spending has produced 1 WAR per $8M. That does not mean that spending $8M per WAR is a promising strategy. Spending $8M/WAR might be viable for the Dodgers/Yankrees but the Twins are not going to be successful at that of production and of course this becomes increasing evident for teams with even less revenue. If you look back over the past couple of decades, 90+ win teams in the bottom half of revenue that produced significant WAR generally spent $2-3M/WAR. There have only been 4 below average revenue teams in the past 15 years to produce 25% of their WAR from FA. One of them was the 2019 Twins who produced spent $3.4M/WAR. The 2012 As had the highest at 46%. They spent $1.9M/WAR. The 2018 Brewers produced just shy of 30% of their WAR via free agency and spent $3.4M. The 4 team was the 2013 Pirates who spent $1.9M/WAR. 1 WAR does not have universal value, it has an average cost that teams in the bottom half of revenue must outperform to have any chance of success.
  5. Major League Ready
    There is a pretty good chance that on June 1 E. Rodriquez will be the everyday RF and cover for Buxton when he is not in the OF. He will be Kepler's rough equivalent defensively and he hits both LH & RH pitching. He has a pretty ideal skillset to plug this hole. They probably also add a RH OFer but Rodriguez is the answer especially for a team with limited financial capacity.
  6. Major League Ready
    You have reached a conclusion from 100ABs? That conclusion is a .562 OPS suggests Lee is the future at 1B?
  7. Major League Ready
    Lets say the only player they got back would have been Harry Ford and he ends up being a well-above average catcher and contributes for several years. Would it have mattered that we did not improve the team in 2024? They lost virtually nothing by letting him go so the cost of that future production would have been zero. If I offered you $1M on 12/31/24 or $2M on 12/31/25, which would you take?
  8. Major League Ready
    Why would you count the Margot money given he came from the Dodgers and they play completely different positions? Also, they we already spending 5.585M on Farmer so they did not add $6.25M, they added $365K.
  9. Major League Ready
    No. I am saying that in terms of the net payroll +/- from 2023 to 2024 that Farmer's cost was already accounted for other than a $715K increase. Therefore, it makes no sense to allocate the savings from Polanco to Farmer. Had they kept Polanco instead the net Change would have been Polanco's salary went up $3M and they would have jettisoned Farmer's $5.85 for a net change of -$2.85M. I said at the time they could have gotten rid of both.
  10. Major League Ready
    Is it really a good idea to ignore what practices have undeniably produced the most winning teams over the past couple of decades if it does not support what we believe should be done. Should we assume to know how to build a team better than the collective abilities of those three organizations that continue to follow these strategies.
  11. Major League Ready
    They did not pay for Kyle Farmer with the Polanco savings given Farmer was in the previous year's budget. They needed to come up with $715K to cover his increase. Hindsight being 20/20 you could say the Farmer money should have also been reallocated, but they did not need to get rid of Polanco to pay for farmer.
  12. Major League Ready
    Good point. At the time, I wrote here that I wished they could have landed Harry Ford but I just don't think they were willing to give up a better prospect than Gonzalez for Polanco. My recollection was Gonzalez was #5 in their system and harry Ford was #4 but much tougher to pry a good catching prospect away. I would have taken Ford/Bowen instead of Gonzalez/Bowen/Topa/Disclafani in a heartbeat. That said, Ford did not do quite as well at AA but he is still a great prospect and that kind of athlete as a catcher would be great to have. Polanco was basically a replacement level player last year. The Twins lost nothing in trading him even if some fans have a hard time accepting that reality. The Twins sold high and the money was better spent elsewhere. They should have given them Kepler too and asked for Ford.
  13. Major League Ready
    I don't think anyone would debate that a team can spend a lot and fail. It's no guarantee. In the case of the 2024 Dodgers, they were able to acquire their most impactful players because of a revenue advantage. The players that produced more than 2 WAR are listed below. The Twins and most other teams had absolutely no chance of landing these players. The 2024 Dodgers provide very little insight into how the MN Twins can/should build a winning roster. 2024 Dodgers WAR $ Shohei Ohtani 9.1 46.7 Mookie Betts 4.4 30.0 Freddie Freeman 4 27.0 Teoscar Hernández 3.5 23.5 Miguel Rojas 2.8 Will Smith 2.7 Max Muncy 2.4 Tyler Glasnow 3.8 25 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2.8 13.33 Gavin Stone 2 2 167.53
  14. Major League Ready
    They need to make some changes but I would also point out that Cleveland ran back the same team and went from 76 to 92 wins. They made no significant trades or free agent signings. Ther point being that teams don't assume the same results. I would bet they anticipate improvement from certain players. Of course, those are the players other teams want in trade.
  15. Major League Ready
    Just opinions but there is close to zero chance Ober is traded. Converting Jax back to a starter is more likely than him being traded. Lee is not traded because his significant struggles at the ML level would probably mean selling low at this point. I could see it with Wallner given the arrival of Rodriquez is on the horizon, but it would seem far more likely after Rodriquez gets established.
  16. Major League Ready
    Ideally, you get elite offensive production out of 1B/DH but 750 is not the problem it's being made out to be here either. We should be equally concerned with solidifying 2B and even 3B. I think Rodriquez gets here by June 1 and the OF gets solidified at least in terms of roster allocation. Obviously, he has to prove himself at the ML level. We also have a 5th SP spot to solidify. 1B does not stand out in terms of question marks.
  17. Major League Ready
    Sure, Refsnyder has faced as many RH as LH pitchers. Over the last 3 years his combined wRC+ is 122. I will take 22% above average when replacing a "full-time" starter in a heartbeat. Then, come playoffs, that ability to start the guy that punishes LH pitching will be a huge advantage.
  18. Major League Ready
    In the past 25 seasons, Oakland has a .518 win percentage and ten 90-win seasons. That's better than the Astros / Giants / Angels / Phillies / Rangers / Cubs and every team in the bottom two-thirds of revenue. Much better than the Twins. Of course, a couple of these teams have WS wins but Oakland has put a good product on the field more often than a lot of organizations with a lot more revenue. The Padres, Cubs, and Blue Jays combined have the same number of 90-win seasons.
  19. Major League Ready
    He probably gets a shot the first couple months of the season for 2 reasons. 1) He had a wRC+ of 110 after the deadline last year. He has a grand total of 257 ML PAs so it's not too hard to believe he could improve upon that post deadline batting line. That would be worthy of a bench role especially if he can improve his defense. 2) Rodriquez is probably not far off. A third might be this team is so lacking in speed.
  20. Major League Ready
    While you just ignore that these other leagues are thriving with a much greater parity.
  21. Major League Ready
    Add a high leverage LH RP to Jax / Duran / Sands / Alcala / Stewart / Topa and either Varland or Winder and the BP will look pretty darn good.
  22. Major League Ready
    You have a remarkable ability to see only what you want to see.
  23. Major League Ready
    Why not examine how Cleveland built a "historically great" BP. Are their practices better than the Twins or is it execution. That would seem to be the pertinent question.
  24. Major League Ready
    Someone needs to tell the NFL and NBA they don't understand how to grow their sport.
  25. Major League Ready
    How about supporting what's good for the game and good for fans in all markets. Do you really not understand that a higher luxury tax threshold widens the disparity or do you just not care what's good for fans and the game as long as it's bad for owners in your mind. BTW ... The owners still are very much in control of their profits. It just makes them even more likely to forego signing the players we complain they don't sign.
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