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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    I keep seeing that the Twins should have never signed Correa/Lopez/Buxton. Yet, when the subject of trading them is brought up, the vast majority of people have a rather harsh reaction that this would be a huge mistake, they would be worse, and many have suggested they would lose more of their fan base. These two positions conflict, do they not? My position would be they can’t afford these players if they have to cut important players to meet a given number. Right now, they could get to an acceptable number by letting Paddack go which is not a big loss. I would add we don’t know that they have to get in the $130K. That’s fairly speculative and given the backlash from last year, Falvey has likely learned not to follow Joe Pohlad’s lead. He is well advised to under promise and over deliver. Will it eventually lead to a problem. Well, next year they Paddack coming off if they don’t let him go now as well as Vazquez, Castro and a reduction for Correa. In total. That will give them plenty to cover arbitration increases in 2026. There is also a good chance that Rodriquez, Keaschall, Jenkins and a couple pitching prospects will take roles that allow the Twins to trade players like Julien / Larnach or perhaps even Lopez. It’s also quite possible they develop more TV revenue as the new model matures and if the team is good enough to keep together that would suggest they are winning which would bring more revenue. If the whole thing is a wreck … burn it down but it would seem they there is a good chance they can keep their core together with the burden of the salaries of Correa/Lopez, and Buxton. Is there a problem I am not considering?
  2. Major League Ready
    I have seen a few articles and compiled the information myself. I have a pretty good idea of where the twins stand in terms of relative spend. Anything I put up, regardless of how factual, that disproved the "cheap Pohlad" narrative would be summarily dismissed. Maybe they are cheap but the majority of people who are constantly complaining are doing so unincumbered by any supporting facts. I will continue to ask why a TD writer is not willing to compile the data given the interest and discussion on in this subject? Can any of the TD writers explain why this would not be a great article that most everyone on this site would love to read if done in an unbiased manner?
  3. Major League Ready
    If you look back at Cleveland's history, you will find that a huge part of their success has been trading away established players for prospects. They have done a good job finding deals for players that were MLB ready but not established. Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith from their 2024 team were all acquired as prospects. If you look back, there is a long list of players that were very important to the success of the best teams Cleveland fielded over the past couple of decades. Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco were all acquired as prospects. The majority of posters on TD are very much against how Cleveland has built their rosters over the past 25 years even though they have had the success among teams in the bottom half of revenue
  4. Major League Ready
    And I would love for any TD writer to actually provide an accounting of fact. Given the controversy and strife that surrounds this is you would think someone would be chomping at the bit to prove they are cheap which of course is a relative term so let's prove they are cheaper than other owners. Why isn't anyone willing to compile the revenue and payroll numbers for the entire league? I am not claiming the Pohlad's are cheap nor generous. My guess is that their percentage of spend is middle of the road (average). Many others (like you) insist they are cheap while providing absolutely no definitive proof. It's customary in any professional landscape to provide support for such a claim, especially when made as fervently as they are here. Yet, no TD writer has been willing to explore the validity of these assertions.
  5. Major League Ready
    What would change if every MLB team owner adapted a policy of operating at break-even? Do you understand that the Twins relative ability to spend would actually be further eroded if all the owners were willing to forego every last dollar of profit. The problem is not that teams care about profit. The problem is revenue disparity. Perhaps I missed it but It's just amazing that with all the strife about spending every off-season, not one TD writer has ever provided a meaningful account of how the Twins percentage of spending compares to other teams. This is not that hard to do put together. There are organizations that provide revenue figures for every team. Yes, it's an estimate but the variables are relatively easy to estimate and the payroll numbers are very easy to put together. Throw them in a spreadsheet and produce a percentage of revenue number. Cmon TD writers. Doesn't someone want to prove the Twins are cheap.
  6. Major League Ready
    While I agree Lopez is a logical option, they can get to an acceptable number by moving Paddack. Lopez has 3 years of control so they can revisit using him as a trade piece next year in the very happy event that some of the prospects (Festa/Matthews/Ynoa/Morris/Raya/Prielipp/Lewis/Culpepper) continue to develop. If we are so fortunate as to see our pipeline actually deliver, trading Lopez next year or even at the deadline this year could be the way to get a good MLB ready catcher. Obviously, this is optimistic but not pie in the sky given the number of quality pitching prospects.
  7. Major League Ready
    Sorry! With the arguments that have been made after his departure, I did not recognize the sarcasm even though it should have been evident.
  8. Major League Ready
    In your opinion, I would bet there is not a GM in all of baseball that would share that opinion. I certainly do not but I guess this difference in opinion explains why some people are still complaining that we cut a player who went on to perform very poorly.
  9. Major League Ready
    In a word, no. Potential buyers are going to value the revenue potential while considering industry trends and the perception of risk. How they view the potential to rebuild local TV revenues and the impact of the revenue gap on small and mid market teams is going to have far more influence on value than one good or bad season. I would bet that their perception of the Twins farm system and specifically the ability of that farm system to sustain a good product on the field over the next several years will have far more impact than a single season result.
  10. Major League Ready
    The Castro scenario does not even remotely remind me of Rosario. Castro has the 2nd most WAR (5.6) for the Twins over the last two seasons. Only Correa has produced better than Castro. Rosario was 9th among position players with a cumulative WAR of 1.9 for his last two seasons with the Twins. We could argue that the Twins have not done an adequate job of finding a new LFer but to argue we somehow lost out by not keeping a player that has produced at replacement level since leaving makes absolutely no sense, especially when the replacement level player costs 8X as much as the players that have replaced him.
  11. Major League Ready
    I could definitely be wrong, but I think they believe in E. Rodriquez and anticipate him being up relatively early in the season. They might bank on that a little more than most prospects because he checks a lot of boxes in terms of team needs. Rodriquez hits LH & RH pitching. He is a good defender and is capable of backing up CF. Keaschall also might end up in the OF and of course Jenkins is also on the horizon. A difference maker probably costs one of these players and I don't see them emphasizing the short-term at the cost of one of these prospects. Now, this scenario changes if they decided to trade Castro and/or Paddack for an OFer.
  12. Major League Ready
    Rosario's produced a cumulative fWAR of -1 in 4 seasons. How is that a loss?
  13. Major League Ready
    I agree but it seems to be a bit hypocritical to say what's wrong with this front office keeping this old prospect that is obviously not a major league player and then criticizing them years later when he has some success. While it's coinvent to pull out the "they are the professionals" defense, there are a great many posts where posters assume a superior understanding of what needs to be done. My only point is that we should perhaps see why they were not confident in him given most of us shared their opinion.
  14. Major League Ready
    Someone that follows the twins as closely as you is aware of the Twins history of drafting position players early and college pitchers after round 5. So, why only consider rounds 1-5? Does it matter which round the player is drafted? Of course, the round drafted makes absolutely no difference in terms of value once they get here. Also, it takes no more effort to look at all of the players so why only look at rounds 1-5? Why ignore relief pitchers? There seems to be a consensus on TD that the BP is very important. Seems like an unbiased assessment would at least mention the BP. It also does not make sense to ignore unproven players acquired in trade or any other method. They are equally valuable. One could even argue these other acquisition methods are crucial to lower revenue teams in accumulating enough talent to contend. These other acquisition methods are responsible for 31% of 1.5+ WAR players when considering every 90+ win team in the bottom half of revenue since 2000. Drafted players account for 33%. The most successful teams, the Guardians and Rays, have produced more WAR from trading for prospects than drafting. The Guardians ratio is 26% draft and 44% other and the Rays are 32% draft, 40% other. I think we can all agree that value does not change based on what round they were drafted or if they were acquired via trade, waiver wire, etc. If we are going to assess their ability to acquire and develop talent, we should consider all aspects of acquiring talent. When you look at this particular small subset, it gives the appearance you are choosing data that fits a given narrative.
  15. Major League Ready
    They definitely made a mistake but my recollection is that most posters here were all for getting rid of him. There was a lot of comments that he was a AAAA player, he is too old to be a good prospect, would never be a good MLB player, etc. Is my memory faulty? Are we criticizing them when most people here thought he was a terrible prospect.
  16. Major League Ready
    There is often an assumption here that the key to “getting over the hump” / contend is to trade for established players. It certainly can help but this theory does not align in general with history, at least not for teams in the bottom half of revenue. If we look at playoff teams and the organizations that have made the playoffs most often, trading for established players played a very small role. In the past 20 years, the Guardians have had the most 90 win seasons (9) among teams in the bottom half of revenue. They have acquired a total of 3 established players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more in those 20 seasons. None of them were acquired in off-season deals. They were all acquired at the deadline. Brad Hand: Acquired at the 2018 deadline and was good in Cleveland for 2 ½ years. Andrew Miller: Was acquired at the trade deadline in 2016 and helped the Guardians achieve a 94 win season. He was also good in 2017 but he was hurt and ineffective in 2018. Ubaldo Jiménez: Was bad in 2012 but was quite good in 2013 and Cleveland had 94 wins. We are talking about a contribution of about 14 WAR collectively in (9) 90-win seasons. Now let’s look at players acquired as prospects. The 2024 Guardians had the following players acquired as prospects. Prospects being defined as a player that had never produced 1.5 WAR in a season. Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith. Previous 90+ win teams included the following players acquired as prospects. Amed Rosario / Myles Straw / Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Yan Gomes / Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco. The 96 win 2005 Guardians had the following players that we acquired as prospects. Grady Sizemore (5.6 war) / Travis Hafner (5.3 war) / Coco Crisp (5.2 war) / Cliff Lee (3.8 war) / and Jake Westbrook @ 2.9 war.
  17. Major League Ready
    Milwaukee and Cleveland are interesting examples because they have approached roster building differently. Cleveland seems to have a blueprint where Milwaukee seems to adapt. Cleveland has been far more consistent than Milwaukee but Milwaukee has managed to stay very competitive of late. We will see if they can again adapt after losing Adames and Burnes.
  18. Major League Ready
    I agree with you but Detroit has at least as big a problem. Correra is $10M more per year but Baez is terrible and that money is returning nothing.
  19. Major League Ready
    Last I checked we need two corner OFers. Their presence means the Twins don't need to push Rodriquez. While I hope we see Rodriquez in June, they can still play all 3 in the OF and DH. They could use one of them as trade capital if Rodriquez is what we hope, especially if Jenkins continues to look promising as he moves up, but we are not there yet. It would be great if we eventually produce a surplus.
  20. Major League Ready
    The 4th OFer is not where I would spend whatever payroll room we have. I might very well be overly optimistic but I would give Hellman a shot to start the season and I don't want to block Rodriquez. I would like to see him here June 1. He hits both handed pitching and he's a good defender who can cover CF in Buxton's absence. I know that banking on him is optimistic but I don't see any great danger in this given we are talking about the 4th OFer. Hellman and Kiersey can't be that much worse than someone else acquired as a 4th OFer. The 1st allocation of funds is probably a LH RP. 1st base is a big question mark but it's a question with a few different potential solutions. One of them is Miranda. While not ideal, he has a reasonable floor. Again, it may be too optimistic but having seen some of his hot streaks, it seems like there could be considerable ceiling there to be captured. It's also an easier position to swing a trade to cover. Perhaps they could find a MLB ready 1B in trade for Castro or Paddack although there is a lot of starting pitching available via free agency that probably won't cost much more than Paddack..
  21. Major League Ready
    Will Holland was great in AAA. It was only 41 games so do the twins believe he truly "broke out". If so, he would have the 2nd highest probability next to Raya. He is a very good athlete with the defensive versatility to replace Castro. If the breakout is real, he could be even better. I think he is the type of position player another team would take a chance on. For me it's Raya, Rosario, and Moran or MacLeod. Perhaps both if they intend to dump Tonkin which would leave a couple spots open for additions.
  22. Major League Ready
    Me too. I like our chances of producing more pitching in the next couple years but the scarcest commodity is pitching. If it turns out we really do have so much pitching that we can trade some away, the opportunity will always be there. The one exception I could see is a ML ready or near ready catcher. A successful conversion of Jax to a starter could help position the Twins to trade from pitching depth to fill the catcher hole. I am not worried about 1B. That's a much easier hole to fill. It's also not a hole. It might be a slight weakness with Miranda but the incremental gain is not necessarily all the great.
  23. Major League Ready
    Rodriquez is so key. He has the highest ceiling, and he fits a key need. An OFer that hits LH&RH pitching that can cover CF when Buxton is out. Plenty of bat to be a corner OFer when Buxton is in the lineup. Good defender and has pretty good speed on a team lacking it. I hope they move him up quickly if he comes out of the gates strong in STP. 150 AAA ABs and we might see him at Target Field. Keaschall is another guy that will improve our athleticism but it does not sound like he has an obvious defensive position. I have a feeling he will take over the Castro role minus SS plus 1B. He will be in the lineup nearly every day but at a variety of positions. I have been praying for Prielipp to get it together since they signed him because we have had very few pitching prospects with his upside. Prielipp finding his health and realizing his potential would be enormous for this team. It sure would be nice if we were on the right side of one of these stories and he becomes our Tarik Skubal.
  24. Major League Ready
    If the Mets added a 7th year at $25M he would be gone in a heartbeat.
  25. Major League Ready
    I missed the mark on where you were going with that thought. I interpreted it as they would not do the things Chpettit was saying because of the sale. It made no sense so I should have figured out that was not what you meant. My bad.
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