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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    If it's reasonable that would suggest it's a model proven to succeed. Name a mid market teams that has succeeded in the past 20 years while paying one player 25%. The closest would be the 2019 Nationals who were above average in revenue but not so far above that it negates any value for comparison. They paid Max Scherzer 21.5% of payroll. Their next two highest paid player represented a combined 22% so the three of them were 44% of payroll. The Twins will be paying Correa/Lopez and Buxton roughly 55%. If this was a good model there would be several examples of it succeeding. There are not. Actually, teams don't even try. The argument would be that front offices don't understand it's a good model.
  2. Major League Ready
    This narrative that trading an established player means that the team should just go into a full rebuild is a bit of an overreaction. Did the Brewers "trade everyone else" when the traded Burnes after winning 92 games in 2023? No. They went on to win 93 games in 2024.
  3. Major League Ready
    I have actually posted previously that Correa's salary was viable within a $140M payroll if they could produce enough pitching. In addition, I don't think they can trade him between the no trade clause and injury concerns, However, I can't come up with an example of a team that sustained any success with a player absorbing 25% of payroll. It's pretty hard for me to take a stance supporting something that has never or very rarely been successful so I would not take a position that we have to live with it if we could find a good way out like they did with Donaldson. BTW ... When I say 25% of payroll, I mean 25% of payroll capacity not actual payroll. Of course, capacity is harder to discern. If a team is spending 25% on a player but still has capacity to increase spending, that 25% investment is not impeding further additions or keeping players that are becoming more expensive through arbitration.
  4. Major League Ready
    Correa would not bring a #1 SP straight up and you definitely are not getting the other pieces you mention so that trade is a fantasy. You have also just taken a position that an additional $17.5M won't make a difference. Yet your solution is to spend another $17.5M. Do you see the problem with your position?
  5. Major League Ready
    I was thinking the same thing but here is why I don't think it happens. It would be done to reallocate the payroll to a position player(s). The problem with that logic is Pablo would be replaced by the 6th SP option so the drop-off in production (WAR) is going to be significant. What position has the greatest potential for gain. There are no glaring weakness where the money could be spent in a way where it would yield greater production than spending it on Pablo. In addition, Pablo is under control for 3 more years so there is no hurry. If, and it's a big if, Festa, Matthews, and Morris (maybe Prielipp/Lewis) continue to shine, trading Pablo away becomes easy. This could be done at the deadline or next off-season with the benefit of having more time to see if the pitching pipeline actually delivers.
  6. Major League Ready
    $29.75M is coming off between Kepler / Farmer / Santana / Margot and DeSclafani so they don't need to cut other players to cover the cost of these increases. Therefore, it's not accurate to say "the savings don't have to come from somewhere" because the savings are already accounted for in expiring contracts.
  7. Major League Ready
    If Buxton, Correa, and Lewis are not part of the five because of injury you obviously need the other 5 to play everyday. Then, you need a bench of players who can cover multiple positions and hit well-above average against RHP all on a very limited budget. Just not realistic and you get crushed by LHP and you have a team that can't match-up in the playoffs.
  8. Major League Ready
    Cleveland has had far more 90 wins seasons than the other two. Detroit has managed only 4 in the past 2 decades. SanDiego has had some success recently but has been one of the poorest performing teams in the league over the last 20 years. They better in the next couple years because they are definitely not set-up for any sustained success. They have one of the worst farm systems in MLB and they are going to have a lot of dead weight going forward. Machado's salary goes from $17M this year to $25 next year and then 7 more years at 37M in his age 34-40 seasons. Darvish is 38 next year. They are paying Bogaerts through age 40. Profar and Arrez to free agency and Kim after next year. I would bet the Twins have substantially more success than the Padres over the next 5-10 years.
  9. Major League Ready
    The Fangraphs rankings were quite different but the author chose to ignore them. There were 3 Twins (Correa/Buxton/Lopez) with higher fWAR.
  10. Major League Ready
    The answer is not a strategy that yields two less wins and a weaker playoff team. More to the point. He has a no trade clause that he is highly unlikely to waive so what's the point?
  11. Major League Ready
    Really? Let's do the math together. Player 1 produces 4 WAR in 80 games and we get 1 WAR out of his back-up. That's 5 wins. You will have to explain how taking the player that produces 2 WAR means they would be more likely to get in the playoffs. The scenario we just described would mean the team with player 1 wins 3 more games than the player you describe.
  12. Major League Ready
    The same way Cleveland went from 76 wins in 2023 to 92 wins in 2024 without a significant trade or free agent signing. A little better health than the last couple years would help. They need to fill two SP spots between SWR/Matthews/Festa/Morris and Paddack need to be productive and reliable. Lewis needs to get back on track and a couple of the other young guys need to emerge as reliable bats. Wallner and Larnach looked like they could be steady bats. They are entering the stage of their careers where they need to prove they can be relied upon. E Rodriguez making the show early in the year and producing would be huge. He fills that BU CF role, provides speed / defense and a guy that can hit LH&RH pitching. He could be a huge difference maker. 250 games combined from Correa and Buxton would really help. Is this a reasonable expectation. IDK but it would sure help to not just reach 500 but 90 wins is insight if these two guys produce. I guess we should add Lopez pitching well to the list. The team has invested a large % of payroll in these three guys and it's almost a prerequisite they get production from them if they are going to contend for the central.
  13. Major League Ready
    I will take player 1 and back him up with a player that produces 1 WAR and end up with 5 WAR instead of 2 and then hope that I have player #1 back for the playoffs which would significantly enhance the team's potential in the playoffs.
  14. Major League Ready
    IDK that they are less willing to extend but they have not had the players to extend where Atlanta produced great extension candidates. They did extend Kepler/Polanco and Sano. I am 100% with you on the value of extending players. Just look at the value per $ of Jose Rameriz vs Carlos Correa or even Buxton. I am hoping Jenkins / E. Rameriz and Keaschall become great extension candidates. None of the current young guys look like great candidates with the possible exception of Lewis.
  15. Major League Ready
    I thought your post was very accurate. I meant the concept was misrepresented in general not that you misrepresented it. Writers and fans in this industry represent the cost paid per WAR in free agency is a measure of what something cost as opposed to value or what a given team, is willing to pay. You point out in your post that the actual target is different than the cost so I am not sure where we differ.
  16. Major League Ready
    By this logic, if player 1 produces 4 WAR in 80 Games, and player 2 produces 2 WAR in 80 games and player 3 produces 0 WAR, they all have the same value. Does this seem logical? Would you prefer to roster Player 1 or Player 3.
  17. Major League Ready
    I really like what Atlanta is done too but they are not a mid-market team. Atlanta is the 10th largest city in the US and the Braves are top 5 in revenue. Mid-market (average revenue or below) teams can't emulate their spending. What successful team(s) with the equivalent of the Twin's revenue would you emulate.
  18. Major League Ready
    This value proposition is conceptually misrepresented. It's a production measure not a value measure. In other words, on average free agent spending has produced 1 WAR per $8M. That does not mean that spending $8M per WAR is a promising strategy. Spending $8M/WAR might be viable for the Dodgers/Yankrees but the Twins are not going to be successful at that of production and of course this becomes increasing evident for teams with even less revenue. If you look back over the past couple of decades, 90+ win teams in the bottom half of revenue that produced significant WAR generally spent $2-3M/WAR. There have only been 4 below average revenue teams in the past 15 years to produce 25% of their WAR from FA. One of them was the 2019 Twins who produced spent $3.4M/WAR. The 2012 As had the highest at 46%. They spent $1.9M/WAR. The 2018 Brewers produced just shy of 30% of their WAR via free agency and spent $3.4M. The 4 team was the 2013 Pirates who spent $1.9M/WAR. 1 WAR does not have universal value, it has an average cost that teams in the bottom half of revenue must outperform to have any chance of success.
  19. Major League Ready
    There is a pretty good chance that on June 1 E. Rodriquez will be the everyday RF and cover for Buxton when he is not in the OF. He will be Kepler's rough equivalent defensively and he hits both LH & RH pitching. He has a pretty ideal skillset to plug this hole. They probably also add a RH OFer but Rodriguez is the answer especially for a team with limited financial capacity.
  20. Major League Ready
    You have reached a conclusion from 100ABs? That conclusion is a .562 OPS suggests Lee is the future at 1B?
  21. Major League Ready
    Lets say the only player they got back would have been Harry Ford and he ends up being a well-above average catcher and contributes for several years. Would it have mattered that we did not improve the team in 2024? They lost virtually nothing by letting him go so the cost of that future production would have been zero. If I offered you $1M on 12/31/24 or $2M on 12/31/25, which would you take?
  22. Major League Ready
    Why would you count the Margot money given he came from the Dodgers and they play completely different positions? Also, they we already spending 5.585M on Farmer so they did not add $6.25M, they added $365K.
  23. Major League Ready
    No. I am saying that in terms of the net payroll +/- from 2023 to 2024 that Farmer's cost was already accounted for other than a $715K increase. Therefore, it makes no sense to allocate the savings from Polanco to Farmer. Had they kept Polanco instead the net Change would have been Polanco's salary went up $3M and they would have jettisoned Farmer's $5.85 for a net change of -$2.85M. I said at the time they could have gotten rid of both.
  24. Major League Ready
    Is it really a good idea to ignore what practices have undeniably produced the most winning teams over the past couple of decades if it does not support what we believe should be done. Should we assume to know how to build a team better than the collective abilities of those three organizations that continue to follow these strategies.
  25. Major League Ready
    They did not pay for Kyle Farmer with the Polanco savings given Farmer was in the previous year's budget. They needed to come up with $715K to cover his increase. Hindsight being 20/20 you could say the Farmer money should have also been reallocated, but they did not need to get rid of Polanco to pay for farmer.
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