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Thanks for mentioning Larnach. I actually meant to say I was happy to have Larnach on the team at this point. He looked like pretty darn good the last half of the season. His OPS was 804 after 8/1.
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I am skeptical he's gets $30M/year. It's also a no go if he's a DH but he seems adequate defensively. He's probably not a fit here. Perhaps the best use of the money would be 1-2 year contracts to fill holes that would allow for future investment in FAs or extensions. I am not putting much emphasis on the OF because I believe Rodriguez will be up before the mid-point of the season and Keascall/Jenkins are also on the horizon. Those two are probably 2026 but it does not make sense to sign long-term contracts with Buxton/Wallner and Larnach here now and Rodriguez/Keashall & Jenkins on the horizon. What would you like to see?
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Cleveland and Tampa have put far more competitive (90 or more wins) teams on the field than the other teams in the bottom half of revenue. If you look at how Cleveland for example build their rosters, they used the exact opposite approach. They traded short-term assets for long-term assets. They have produced roughly the same amount of WAR from players acquired as prospects as they have through the draft and international signings combined. Not one player that produced more than 1.5 WAR on any of their 90-win teams was acquired in an off-season trade,
- 107 replies
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- joe ryan
- pablo lopez
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That's a great question and to be honest I stated it this way because I really not sure. I know the positions would be RH OFer, 1B, and LH RP. Would they spring for Alonso on a 3-year deal? I might spend it all in one place if it were Alonso but that would increase the amount we are spending on the top 3 guys so I would have to acknowledge that's a questionable move.
- 107 replies
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- joe ryan
- pablo lopez
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Plipping Lopez is a very interesting Twist. They slightly improve the pitching staff for 2025 and improve the farm system because 3 years of Pablo brings back a lot more than the cost of cease. They also increase payroll capability by roughly $20M with the reductions of Lopez and Vazquez and the addition of Cease. This will be a good move if they spend the $20M wisely.
- 107 replies
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- joe ryan
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Buxton is a star when he is healthy. Sano never looked like a star. There was always a contact question with him and a work ethic problem. Kepler had very good numbers but not superstar numbers. He might have been slightly disappointing. Larnach never looked like a star once he got past AA. It probably fair to say Kirilloff was a disappointment but the gap in these expectations in general is a product of us as fans being overly optimistic and fired up about our team. Nothing wrong with that. Being a negative nelly does not seem like the best way to enjoy the game or any other pastime.
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I think them preparing Lewis for 2nd has more to do with the possibility of acquiring a 1B and putting Miranda at 3B. They have quite a few other options for 2B if Lee does not stick, starting with Castro, Julien, and even Martin with Eeles a possibility as well.
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They will shed $31.4M in payroll next year (or sooner) between, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Dobnick, and the decrease in Correa’s contract. This combined with new ownership that will hopefully spend a little more and we will be in pretty good shape. The young guys and a few prospects like Rodriquez, Matthews, etc will still need to step up but they should be able to put a good product on the field for the next few years.
- 43 replies
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- walker jenkins
- emmanuel rodriguez
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I saw them play that song live. That drum solo was phenomenal live.
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I am not sure who you are confusing Edwin Arroyo with but he is a 21 y/o SS and the Red's #3 prospect.
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I would make that deal for Arroyo in a heartbeat and then spend the salary saved on 1B or a RH hitting OFer.
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Where in this article does it address how much revenue teams would get from cable and satellite carriers? It says fans will continue to have the option of getting coverage through traditional carriers and of course we knew this to be true with the Twins as well. However, it says absolutely nothing about revenue models as they pertain to cable and satellite carriers.
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Why would MLB negotiate the rights of individual teams for their local broadcasts on platforms out side of MLB's streaming service? What are the specifics of how MLB negotiated the rights of individual teams for local broadcasts with all the other platforms such as satellite and cable companies? I have not looked extensively but I can't find any articles that suggest such a program is in place. Perhaps you have a link. I am genuinely interested to learn of established programs that would clarify how this works.
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This was Bally's issue with Comcast. Comcast insisted that Bally's be part of their regional sports package for which customers pay an additional fee. Same thing with DirecTV and Dish. It is highly probable that the twins arrangement with providers will be based on subscriptions either specifically for the Twins or a sports package. That sports package might include the Wild, Wolves, and other sports/outdoor related programming. This will allow providers to make deals for programming at a cost of $X and package them for sale at X plus Y% and that's how they provider profits. The Fee on DirectTV as an example is $15 and that includes a number of different sports. Given that fee, they are not paying much to carry the games unless they are getting a portion of the advertising revenue. The model could be that the Twins get next to nothing from the carriers and make their money on advertising revenue. We just don't have nearly enough reliable information to understand how the revenues and operating costs flow.
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I assumed those sources were illegal. Are you telling us they are legal or are you suggesting stealing is just fine if you can get away with it?
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In other words, you can't answer any of the questions so you don't want to play. You won't acknowledge you have completely and utterly ignored any operational costs and the revenue from three-quarters of the subscribers.
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One, you completely ignore production costs which is equally critical to understanding the net. You are also proceeding under a badly flawed assumption that the only source of advertising revenue is the direct subscribers. What about the other 75% of viewers? What revenues are derived from them? We know very little. The difference between you and I is that I know what I don't know. I also believe that a couple of ex-GMs can make a couple phone calls to current GMs and acquire a far better estimate than you or I can assemble.
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First, your source is an ad from Legal Zoom (https://www.legalzoom.com/articles/cost-of-marketing-ii-advertising-on-cable-tv) using a $200 figure as if all ads cost the same regardless of views per 1000. The Twins can now reach 3X as many households as last year. In the past 5 years they have average anywhere from 50-150K viewers per game. Given the wide swing and tripling of households reached, how many households are you using in this calculation? You offered no supporting information and failed to even consider the 75% of the Twins audience viewing on cable and satellite platforms. Why are you only considering advertising and subscription revenue from direct users? What about the out 75% of viewers on other platforms? What are you using for a cost per 1000 views? According to Skyworks marketing, the average cost per 1,000 views varies from $5-10 per 1000 for a local broadcast of a professional sports event. Are you using the minimum, maximum or any figure at all to come up with the $200 per ad pricing. I did not realize I was conversing with someone who possessed have more knowledge of MLB and better information sources than not one but two former GMs who speak to baseball executives on a daily basis. What you offered was a calculation with virtually no information to support your position and no evidence that you even considered the primary elements that go into calculating net income generated.
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It think it's fair to assume advertising revenue will be less. However, given we have no reliable information, I thought I would share what Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden said on their show. It also seems reasonable to assume they have had discussions with industry insiders that would provide greater insight than those of us on TD given we have very little reliable information. I am going to assume their sources are better than mine.
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I was not speculating, I simply relayed what was said on the front office show on MLB radio. My speculation is that they have much better sources than you and I. Meanwhile, you speculate that an advertising on a MLB game can be had for $200 based on a generic suggestion from Legal Zoom. Do you have any actual data on the cost to advertise on a MLB game? What about viewers on all the other platforms which is going to be multiples of their subscriptions. I doubt MLB only collects for their own subscriptions. Did you account for that? What do you suppose it costs to produce the broadcast. (Talent, production crew, travel, equipment, etc). We have virtually no reliable information on the various components of revenue and operating costs. IDK why any of us would think we have the ability to quantify income with the quality of information we have on revenue and virtually no information about production costs.
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You have only quantified one element of the financial equation. That being the subscription revenue. What is the advertising revenue? I have no idea but I suspect the subscription fee is a small percentage of the total revenue. What are the operating costs. Simply looking at subscription revenue is of little value. I heard this discussed on of the MLB radio programs last year and they thought the new model would yield roughly three-quarters of the old model going forward. However, they offered no details other than that's what they ascertained from talking to people in the industry.
- 92 replies
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- dave st peter
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I agree to a point but there are other considerations as Karcherd points out. We also should ask if business owners take money out of their pockets to cover the cost? Of course not. That’s not how businesses operate. They either cut other expense or go out of business. A $1.5B stadium funded by a low interest (4%) instrument would cost around $86M/year. Where do you suppose the teams would cut that expense? It would primarily be through reducing player salaries. What if they just shell out the $1.5B. Do you suppose they would require a return on that extra billion dollars? The average rate of return on capital is roughly 10%. You could make an argument that half of the teams in the league would not exist because the ROI would be so low that nobody would want to buy a team outside the major markets. The most likely scenario is that they would build much more modest stadiums and maintain a very low payroll.
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Are we talking about cash flow vs expense recognition? They may have paid them out but does the IRS allow them to recognize the expense when they were paid out? In other words, was their income reduced by the full amount of the expenditure in year one? I doubt it but I don't know how this works with MLB teams. If the asset/contract is not fully deductible in year one which is most often the case, then the expense is recognized over the life of the asset. Are you aware of special treatment for MLB teams that allows them to fully deduct bonus payments when they are paid? If not, the appropriate representation of these expenses is to recognize them equally across the length of the asset / contract life. Cash flow is not relevant.
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I think this is an accurate accounting of the opening day payroll. ($134.7M) Starters SALARY Pablo Lopez 21,750,000 Joe Ryan 3,000,000 Bailey Ober 3,550,000 SWR 800,000 Chris Paddack 7,500,000 Relief Pitchers Jhoan Duran 4,125,000 Griffin Jax 2,365,000 Cole Sands 800,000 Jorge Alcala 1,500,000 Brock Stewart 870,000 Justin Topa 1,225,000 Michael Tonkin 1,000,000 Eiberson Castellano 800,000 Catchers Ryan Jeffers 4,550,000 Christian Vazquez 10,000,000 Infielders Jose Miranda 800,000 Royce Lewis 1,625,000 Brooks Lee 800,000 Carlos Correa 37,333,000 Utility Players Willi Castro (SS/2B/OF) 6,400,000 Austin Martin (2B/LF/CF) 800,000 ? 800,000 ? 800,000 Outfielders Trevor Larnach 2,100,000 Byron Buxton 15,142,857 Matt Wallner 800,000 Randy Dobnak 3,000,000 Kyle Farmer 250,000 Jay Jackson 200,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 134,685,857
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I don't recall ever seeing an article about payroll spending or finances in general this well written. Not even close. Well done!
