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I have a hard time handing the 2B job to Lee after a horrendous 2nd half last year where he posted a wRC+ of 64. This might be a rare instance where spring training could or should determine a starting position. I would lean toward Castro but his 2nd half was pretty bad as well. Vazquez was better than both of them.
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Prielipp's development is the most intriguing question of all for me as far as pitching prospects go. He might not every throw a major league pitch but he might also have the highest ceiling of any prospect we have. What a huge boost it would be for Prielipp to achieve his potential.
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The Twins got 11.2 WAR from Correa, Lopez, and Buxton on a total of roughly $57M in salary. Of course, Lopez's increase had to hit yet. Even if you use Lopez's salary for this year, the total for those 3 would be roughly $70M or 1 WAR for every $6.2M which is quite a bit better than league average. If you saying their level of spending does not allow for signing premium players, OK. However, that's certainly not consistent with what we see fans here wanting done. It sure seems to me most people only want premium players signed.
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You are assuming / projecting 8-12 wins from $30M in spending which is one win for every $3M spent. We have a mountain of data that tells us that $30M is worth less than 3 wins. This projection is not remotely realistic from high-end free agents. Carlos Correa is not going to produce 12 WAR. He has averaged 3.8 WAR for his career. The only way the kind of production you have suggested is going to happen is with lower end free agents. Carlos Santana produced 1 WAR per $2.5M in spending. MAT produced 1 WAR for every 2.25M spent. Ty Franz could realistically produce 1 WAR of even more for every $1M spent but more premium free agents rarely produce anywhere near the levels you have assumed. These are not the players fans wish for in free agency. Now, if they spent the money wisely on extensions, that $30M might yield 5-6 wins on average.
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Paddack and SWR are both suspect IMO or at the very least players that could be upgraded. Even if we assume we have two guys in Festa and Matthews that will step-up and assume those roles, we are out of depth. Hopefully, a couple more guys step-up this year but until that happens, I don’t see an excess of depth. The good news is there are several guys in the pipeline with potential to become solid big league SPs. If those guys continue to advance, the more likely scenario is the twins follow the Cleveland / Tampa blueprint and trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober with 1-2 remaining years of control.
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Wow! I was about to write pretty much the exact same thing when a notice came up on my screen you had just replied to this thread. Pablo / Ryan, and Ober all expiring in the same year is very difficult to manage if sustained success is considered. If Zebby or Festa or Prielipp, etc, can take the position of one of those top three, they can expand their window while managing payroll to allow for extending current players or bring creating payroll room for free agents. The former would be preferrable.
- 67 replies
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- 5
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- david festa
- andrew morris
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Who knows. Wallner has less than 600 career PAs. Maybe the league adjusts. Maybe he gets even better. It certainly would not be unusual for a hitter to improve as they surpass 1,000 or 1,500 ABs. Yes, it would be great to have a superstar that is the best hitter against LHP and RHP but that's pretty rare. I guess Correa has the potential to be that guy but the question posed in this thread is basically if Wallner is a suitable lead-off hitter and his performance to date suggest he could be good in that role. Rodriguez was an OB machine last year and hits both handed pitching. Maybe he could factor in fairly soon.
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Wallner's OBP is 80 pts higher than Martin against RHP. Martin's baserunning would not nearly make up for that difference even if they both slugged the same. Of course, Wallner is massively more productive. Wallner's wRC+ against RHP is 70% higher than Martin. I can't imagine there is a MLB team that leads off Martin over Wallner or that would consider him a lead-off hitter at all. He is below average. It just makes absolutely no sense.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
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Wallner was 11th in MLB for OBP against RHP last year. One percentage point behind Correa. He was 7th in the league in terms of wRC+. How would it be big trouble for the Twins if he hit lead-off against RHP? Fangraphs Leaders against RHP
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
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His career OBP is .396 against RHP. I suspect that's why we are seeing him in that role this spring. They want to see how he reacts. Of course, there is no way he leads off against LHP so he is already there if he performs as he has in the past.
- 91 replies
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- matt wallner
- edouard julien
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I think we might actually agree that he is a mediocre defender in any position and therefore more valuable if he can cover multiple positions off the bench. You avoided the assertion he does not have the bat for LF. Should they have played him there as a primary position? When I have seen him live he actually looked pretty bad in LF. He is a poor option in CF. I agree with 2B but to disregard how many SSs have been converted to 2B is a convenient argument. What percentage of players who start out in the minors end up at another position? Where do most of the end up? 2B.
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Good hands and a quick release can help make up for a very average arm at SS. I would guess they hoped to improve his throwing mechanics which is not unusual, right? You managed to ignore ever other point I made and cherry pick this one. Do you disagree with the points I made for each position? Where would you have played him?
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- jose miranda
- edouard julien
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I have my reservations about SWR as well. Ideally, Festa and Matthews both surpass him. I hope I am wrong, but SWRs ceiling looks like a back of the rotation guy to me. Let's hope Festa and Matthews can become as good or better than Ryan / Ober and force a trade of SWR.
- 51 replies
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- louis varland
- jorge alcala
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Not really. His bat / arm does not profile as a corner OFer especially given he is a mediocre even as a corner OFer. He is below average defensively as a CF defender which would be OK if he was elite offensively which he is not. He does not have the arm for 3B. Bat does not profile as a 1B. That leaves SS and 2B and how many failed SSs end up at 2B. It's not hard to imagine why they tried to elevate his value by developing him into an everyday SS. The fallback is he can provide value as a utility guy even if that value is through trade because with any luck at all there won't be a place on this roster next year for Martin unless of course he steps it up a notch offensively and is able to take a Castro type of role minus 2B.
- 69 replies
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- jose miranda
- edouard julien
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Thanks for sharing this info. I have not seen Franz much at 1B and was under the impression he was no better than Miranda. That made it hard to understand why they wouldn't just go with Miranda. If Franz is much more capable but hampered by an injury last year, they can evaluate him this spring. Could be significant upside with virtually no risk. I am looking forward to applying the eye test this spring. The irony here is that a whole lot of people were dead set against Miranda as anything but a DH.
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I have an extremely hard time believing Justin Ishbia dropped out of a $1.5B+ transaction because he did not want to be in a position where he MIGHT have to spend the remaining one-third of a $24M contract for a rental. I used $24M to make the math easy. $8M is one-half of 1% of $1.5B. Put another way, let's say the Pohlads were asking $1.5B and Ishbia countered with $1,492,000, do you suppose the Pohlads would say no. I think we can speculate with great confidence that Ishbia's interest was not going to be even remotely swayed by an $8M line item.
- 44 replies
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- justin ishbia
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Most likely someone (Stewart perhaps) starts the season on the IL. They could also option Topa. I doubt the team even seriously considers starting Alcala at AAA.
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I am with you and Bean in terms of retaining depth even if it means someone like Ober starts in AAA like last year. We know it takes a lot more than 5 SPS to get through a season. IDK about you but I am happy to be debating how to roster and retain several good SPS instead of discussing the signing of retreads to fill out the rotation.
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What about Lewis / Wallner & Larnach? Yes, Lewis had a rough stretch last year but those guys are solid players. Wallner and Larnach actually had a good 2nd half last year. Both were well above average. Wallner was actually great. They were not the problem. I also would not thrown in the towel on Julien, Martin & Miranda either so it seems a bit over the top to be comparing the Twins to the Angels.
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I would look a little deeper if I were you. Baseball America's Farm rankings have the Angels dead last and the Twins 8th. These ranking are only part of the story. The Twins have graduated several good young players in the past 3 years that will likely contribute for the next few years, including Festa and Matthews last year. I also like the odds that Rodriquez and Keaschall contribute this season.
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While I am not totally convinced, I tend to think the 5 SP spots are pretty secure with the players you mentioned. What I am hoping for is that the SPs we define as depth right now are good enough the early part of the year that the organization feels best served by trading Paddack by the AS break or sooner. Of course, this would also mean everyone is healthy. A guy can dream, right?
- 67 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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The money is spent. If the team would be better with Festa, Matthews, or even Sands starting, they could get value out of Paddack in the BP or they could find a trade partner. The return might not be much right now but they could dump his contract if they were convinced the team was better off with someone else starting. It also does not have to happen immediately. They can wait to see if everyone is healthy and how other options look this spring. You can bet other teams will have early season injuries. That would likely create an opportunity to trade Paddack. It's simply smarter to sit on these options right now.
- 67 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
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ST training has proven over and over again to be a very poor predictor of regular season success. Should we send Wallner to AAA if he has a relatively poor ST? How about Bailey Ober. Should we give his spot to Matthews or Festa if he has a poor ST? Now, there are some guys who have not given the team adequate reason to trust in past performance but putting a lot of emphasis on ST is not a common practice for ML teams. Picking between two guys that have not previously performed or performed very inconsistently is a different matter.
- 67 replies
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- simeon woods richardson
- david festa
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Loosing / rebuilding teams follow very different strategies. Are they signing serious free agents? No. How about trading prospects for established players. Of course not. The fact that you can fail using the same strategy goes without saying. Let me ask you this .... If you measure the productivity of each acquisition strategy for every 90+ win team, would that indicate the relative impact of each one of those strategies? Of course it does. If drafting produces 40% and acquiring prospects is 40%, and trading for established players is 10%, and free agents contribute 10%. these are facts not projections. This is a measure of what has worked. If the odds of success were increased using a different mix of acquisition strategies, that would definitely show up in the data. For example, trading for prospects would be 10% and trading for established players would be 40% instead of vice versa. The odds while not directly measured are inherent in the data.
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Prielipp is 5th or 6th on the depth chart because he has been out forever. Should we believe, Prielipp would shoot up that depth chart with a healthy season. Does he have a higher ceiling than most or all of the people currently ahead of him on the depth chart? If so, converting him for expediency is a really bad asset management not to mention really unfair to Prielipp. He might get to the show a year earlier but it would like cost him tens of millions of dollars.
