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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    The average price per 1 WAR for MLB free agents is over $8M. If even one team thought Dobnak could produce above replacement level, his $3M salary certainly would not have been a hindrance, and it his salary was even less in previous years and no teams wanted him at $2.25M. It's pretty simple. Markets establish value and this market has determined Dobnak has little or no value.
  2. Major League Ready
    I am going to wait until the spring training ends, look at the health of all of our SPs, and how Paddack / SWR / Matthews, and Festa are performing. Then, we can assess our options. I don't believe it's about the money. They could find someone to take his contract if this was about his contract.
  3. Major League Ready
    Could Morris be the next Griffin Jax? Similar build / Starter turned RP.
  4. Major League Ready
    Thanks for consolidating these stats. After getting a look at Castellano on TV and seeing these stats, I think they keep this guy one way or another.
  5. Major League Ready
    True but his stock has gone down. The fact remains pretty much every baseball person that spoke or wrote of this trade said the Twins got the better end of the deal. I think a fair assessment is that it was a good trade that didn't work out for either team, Of course it's possible Gonzalez steps up. I said at the time that the better play would have been straight up for Harry Ford but of course who knows of the Mariners would have accepted that trade.
  6. Major League Ready
    He was their Milb pitcher of the year. Do you think it's possible they thought highly of him but just didn't believe he would be taken because of his limited experience? For example, as the Twins didn't believe Tyler Wells would be taken.
  7. Major League Ready
    Why bother if you're the Phillies if they are getting next to nothing back. It would make more sense to force the Twins hand. Maybe they get nothing but is that really any better than next to nothing. If I am the Phillies, I take my chances of getting him back rather than taking next to nothing.
  8. Major League Ready
    IDK about the impact of innings pitched. However, from the first time I saw his violent pitching motion, I thought he looked like an injury waiting to happen.
  9. Major League Ready
    His 2 IP today was the first I have seen of him. He has very good stuff but a bit erratic.
  10. Major League Ready
    Help me here, I don't follow the logic. How did losing a replacement level player contribute to not making the playoffs? I also don't understand the comment about Santana. Yes, he was 37 years old and for that reason most of us (me included) were not high on him. Most of us would have preferred Hoskins who also ended up being replacement level. So, how was bringing in Sanatana and his gold glove a negative?
  11. Major League Ready
    So, Polanco's production is irrelevant but the production of players coming back is relevant. That's a convenient argument. I agree that there is an assumed value at the time. However, there is eventually a quantifiable value that is much more relevant in terms of assessing value than the forecasted values made by both sides make in a trade. At the time of the trade, the vast majority of MLB reporters felt the twins got the better of that trade. Now that we can measure the actual results, nothing was lost and nothing was gained. I said at the time I would have preferred they trade Polanco for prospects and reinvest the savings. Therefore, I agree they had an asset that should have returned something. We also can't ignore that moving Polanco did free up dollars. Obviously, there were other moves made so we can't tie the Sanatana signing strictly to moving Polanco. However, moving Polanco did free up some dollars and the investment in Santana proved to be a much better move than keeping Polanco.
  12. Major League Ready
    Trading away a player that produced 0 WAR for $10.5M is one of the worst in team history? I would say that it was a big nothing burger. They lost nothing and gained nothing. I guess if one argued the salary difference was used to sign Santana it was a significant net gain.
  13. Major League Ready
    I think there is at least a 50/50 chance Vazquez's replacement will be another 7-10M/year free agent. It would be great if we could find a trade deal for a promising catcher but the odds of that are pretty low.
  14. Major League Ready
    Have to agree they are not getting anything in the vicinity of Teal or Rushing. What do you think they could get for Paddack if it was a prospect? I just don't see Paddack bringing back much unless there is a rash of injuries during ST. Can the get a 45FV type prospect?
  15. Major League Ready
    I have a hard time handing the 2B job to Lee after a horrendous 2nd half last year where he posted a wRC+ of 64. This might be a rare instance where spring training could or should determine a starting position. I would lean toward Castro but his 2nd half was pretty bad as well. Vazquez was better than both of them.
  16. Major League Ready
    Prielipp's development is the most intriguing question of all for me as far as pitching prospects go. He might not every throw a major league pitch but he might also have the highest ceiling of any prospect we have. What a huge boost it would be for Prielipp to achieve his potential.
  17. Major League Ready
    The Twins got 11.2 WAR from Correa, Lopez, and Buxton on a total of roughly $57M in salary. Of course, Lopez's increase had to hit yet. Even if you use Lopez's salary for this year, the total for those 3 would be roughly $70M or 1 WAR for every $6.2M which is quite a bit better than league average. If you saying their level of spending does not allow for signing premium players, OK. However, that's certainly not consistent with what we see fans here wanting done. It sure seems to me most people only want premium players signed.
  18. Major League Ready
    You are assuming / projecting 8-12 wins from $30M in spending which is one win for every $3M spent. We have a mountain of data that tells us that $30M is worth less than 3 wins. This projection is not remotely realistic from high-end free agents. Carlos Correa is not going to produce 12 WAR. He has averaged 3.8 WAR for his career. The only way the kind of production you have suggested is going to happen is with lower end free agents. Carlos Santana produced 1 WAR per $2.5M in spending. MAT produced 1 WAR for every 2.25M spent. Ty Franz could realistically produce 1 WAR of even more for every $1M spent but more premium free agents rarely produce anywhere near the levels you have assumed. These are not the players fans wish for in free agency. Now, if they spent the money wisely on extensions, that $30M might yield 5-6 wins on average.
  19. Major League Ready
    Paddack and SWR are both suspect IMO or at the very least players that could be upgraded. Even if we assume we have two guys in Festa and Matthews that will step-up and assume those roles, we are out of depth. Hopefully, a couple more guys step-up this year but until that happens, I don’t see an excess of depth. The good news is there are several guys in the pipeline with potential to become solid big league SPs. If those guys continue to advance, the more likely scenario is the twins follow the Cleveland / Tampa blueprint and trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober with 1-2 remaining years of control.
  20. Major League Ready
    Wow! I was about to write pretty much the exact same thing when a notice came up on my screen you had just replied to this thread. Pablo / Ryan, and Ober all expiring in the same year is very difficult to manage if sustained success is considered. If Zebby or Festa or Prielipp, etc, can take the position of one of those top three, they can expand their window while managing payroll to allow for extending current players or bring creating payroll room for free agents. The former would be preferrable.
  21. Major League Ready
    Who knows. Wallner has less than 600 career PAs. Maybe the league adjusts. Maybe he gets even better. It certainly would not be unusual for a hitter to improve as they surpass 1,000 or 1,500 ABs. Yes, it would be great to have a superstar that is the best hitter against LHP and RHP but that's pretty rare. I guess Correa has the potential to be that guy but the question posed in this thread is basically if Wallner is a suitable lead-off hitter and his performance to date suggest he could be good in that role. Rodriguez was an OB machine last year and hits both handed pitching. Maybe he could factor in fairly soon.
  22. Major League Ready
    Wallner's OBP is 80 pts higher than Martin against RHP. Martin's baserunning would not nearly make up for that difference even if they both slugged the same. Of course, Wallner is massively more productive. Wallner's wRC+ against RHP is 70% higher than Martin. I can't imagine there is a MLB team that leads off Martin over Wallner or that would consider him a lead-off hitter at all. He is below average. It just makes absolutely no sense.
  23. Major League Ready
    Wallner was 11th in MLB for OBP against RHP last year. One percentage point behind Correa. He was 7th in the league in terms of wRC+. How would it be big trouble for the Twins if he hit lead-off against RHP? Fangraphs Leaders against RHP
  24. Major League Ready
    His career OBP is .396 against RHP. I suspect that's why we are seeing him in that role this spring. They want to see how he reacts. Of course, there is no way he leads off against LHP so he is already there if he performs as he has in the past.
  25. Major League Ready
    I think we might actually agree that he is a mediocre defender in any position and therefore more valuable if he can cover multiple positions off the bench. You avoided the assertion he does not have the bat for LF. Should they have played him there as a primary position? When I have seen him live he actually looked pretty bad in LF. He is a poor option in CF. I agree with 2B but to disregard how many SSs have been converted to 2B is a convenient argument. What percentage of players who start out in the minors end up at another position? Where do most of the end up? 2B.
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