Major League Ready

What if Kody Clemens has an 775 OPS between now and the trade deadline and France continues his pace at an OPS of 675? Do you cut France for trade him for a dozen golf balls and go with Clemens at 1B? Stranger things have happened.

I knew he had played some 1B but I don't see them putting a player with Keaschall's athleticism at 1B on a permanent basis. That would deplete his value. Keaschall eventually takes over the Castro role where he plays everyday but in several different positions unless they decide to put Lewis at 1B, Lee at 3B and Keaschall at 2B. The key is probably how well Lewis plays defensively at 3B. He has looked better lately and the throws have been good.

Lee and Lewis performing could be key for the next few games but the 26-man roster is going to change quite a bit next week when Buxton and Correa come back. Wallner will also be following close behind. Adding Wallner and Correa getting back in normal form has the potential to be very impactful. Think of it these terms. To this point, they have gotten almost nothing from two of their top offensive players from last year (Lewis/Correa) and their top offensive player (Wallner) will be back by the end of next week. This offense should get quite a bit better.

According to BB Reference, The Wind Surge are basically rotating Cossetti, Cardenas, and Olivar pretty equally at Catcher. I would like to see the one with the best chance of catching at the ML level promoted to St. Paul in the next month. That would give the other AA catchers more reps. It would mean cutting Cartaya but his OPS is .367. Make room for someone that has a chance to play at the next level. Nice to see Gonzalez headed to AA.

We just are not going to know if this was a good trade for a couple years. Gonzalez has a chance but he needs to produce for more than 6 weeks before we get too excited. Topa could provide a decent amount of contribution over the next two years but RPs are the most unpredictable players in MLB. What we gave up was a replacement level performance. Not a replacement level player but a replacement level performance. We would not have exercised his option and neither would any other team. Therefore, we gave up virtually nothing. One could argue they should have signed him back when Seattle declined his option but that's a different argument. It was not a win for Seattle and it has yet to become a win for the Twins. Now, resigning Polanco for $7M was a win for Seattle.

You could say the same for Jose Salas. What's up with him all the sudden? It would be a very pleasant surprise if these two guys were promoted to AA by mid-season and were equally as productive at AA.

Would like to hear from anyone that has watched enough of Olivar at catcher to offer an opinion as to his ability to stick behind the plate at least as a back-up. I could see him being promoted to AAA mid-year and playing with the big club next year if he can catch. His ability to play some OF would be a plus. Cardenas offensive numbers look good too. Perhaps he can be the one to fill the Vazquez role next year. Would sure like to see that role filled internally with a replacement that can provide league average or better offense.

I get exactly where you are coming from and that's why I pointed out I was not trying to evaluate front offices. Frankly, I think it's the general nature of sports fans to conclude the front office sucks unless the team is absolutely dominant. We also simply don't have the access to acquire the inputs required for such an assessment.

I was not trying to determine which teams were the best at drafting and development. The idea came from discussions here about the relative merit of various forms of acquisition. For example, many people here were big advocated of trading prospects for established players. The scope included all acquisition methods to provide a meaningful comparison. The scope including all methods illustrates quite clearly what methods have contributed the most and it also shows which strategies certain teams prefer over a period of time. These are statistics just like BA or OBP and it’s about as factual as batting average. If you look at all of the data it also shows teams that have been successful with a very different set of acquisitions methods, just much less frequently. The scope was limited in that I only looked at teams in the bottom half of revenue. I didn’t think how the Dodgers or Yankees built rosters was particularly relevant to what strategies would be the most productive for the Twins. The Dodgers for example are going to have a very different distribution favoring free agents that is simply not feasible for the Twins. I limited the scope to players that were at least modestly impactful. I chose to use 1.5 WAR for position Players and SPs and 1.2 WAR for RPS. I used the same standard to identify players acquired in trade. If a player had produced 1.5 WAR in any season they were considered to be an “established player”. One could argue this is not an established “impact” player but I purposefully conservative with this definition. If you look at all of the detailed data, there are some very certain trends that make it fairly easy to draw some conclusions. There are also some anomalies that show the wide variety of outcomes possible in MLB which in some ways explains the wide variety of opinions..

I don't think SWR would bring back a top 20 prospect like rushing. I don't see many possibilities as I look down the list of catchers in the top 100. I don't see the teams that have them trading them. Chicago, Detroit, and KC all have catchers in the top 100. First and foremost, I want to see a good return. However, it sure would be nice if the return fills a need in the near future. Maybe a 1B prospect that is near ready is more feasible.

Seems reasonable even likely. What do you think SWR brings in trade? Can we get a decent catching prospect that will be big league ready by the start of next season?

Two years ago Severino hit 35 bombs which might have been the most home runs in all of Milb I seem to recall one of the Saints announcers saying his total across two levels was the most in all Milb.

Wallner was tied with Correa for the highest wRC+ on the team last year and he was 2nd (didn't count Keaschall given SSS) this year before going down from injury. He is probably the biggest offensive difference maker on the team based on weighted runs created.

I would think the most likely place to improve would be the guys underperforming not the guys that are doing as well or better than expected. Our best chance is for Lewis and Correa to get going. Castro and France have some upside as well.

Put Wallner and Keachall back in the line-up and they have a chance to be one of the better teams in the league with the way they are pitching. It also wouldn't hurt if Lewis got back to normal.

No doubt. They need to replace Vasquez but a back-up catcher is pretty cheap in free agency. Bader is probably replaced by Martin. Of course, Martin is not close defensively but I dont expect (hope) Bader continues to be one of the best hitters on the team. Erod is the wild card for me. I love a lot about him. Good defender and his splits are close but so far he looks mediocre this year. He has the potential to be an outstanding replacement for Bader. I am really hoping Erod steps it up. Hopefully Jenkins goes through the minors very quickly. Teach McCusker to play 1B. Mostly kidding. Not sure how 1B is solved.

I agree with you but I will try to make you feel better with an optimistic view..... We don't really need any replacements next year and only one (Jeffers) in 2027. Most everyone is here until 2028. They can fill the voids by hitting on a couple college bats this year. The other possibility would be if our pitching pipelines is good enough to allow us to trade established pitching over the next couple years. As Riverbrian pointed out, that would free up money to fill holes but trading someone like Lopez / Ryan / Ober could bring back an impact piece. Jenkin and/or Rodriguez panning out would create a surplus that would allow us to trade Wallner or Larnach.

Hard to argue that point. It's especially true where catchers are concerned. I would have preferred the Polanco trade to be straight up for Harry Ford. I have no idea if that was possible but it would have been preferrable, IMO. If there is a deal made for one of our pitchers, it sure would be ideal if we got a major league ready or near ready catcher. A really great 1B would be OK as well and probably a lot easier to find. I don't want to see Pablo go. However, the right trade could really help set us up for an extended run. I anxiously await Zebby's arrival. I see him as the key. If he proves capable of replacing Pablo, they could trade Pablo next off-season or at the deadline next year. In the process securing a couple very good prospects to fill the holes/need you identified and open up $21M to spend in free agency or extensions.

I have been a bit down on their position player development. However, I look around the diamond and what do we see? The starting OF is comprised of drafted players. (Buxton/Wallner/Larnach) with Bader thrown in and Martin probably replaces Kiersey when martin gets healthy. 3B - Lewis / 2B Keaschall / C - Jeffers. Lee plays 3 positions and would be the SS had we not signed CC. That leaves 1B. Would AK have been serviceable without the injuries? IDK but when I look at it this way it's hard to say they have been terrible at developing position players. The back-end of the BP (Duran/Jax/Sands were all drafted. Starting pitching has a mix of trades and drafted players. I look at an acquisition like Ryan or Duran a little differently than people who simply say "well, we didn't draft him. No, we didn't but he cost us essentially nothing and he was not an established player. That's very different than acquiring a free agent of trading for an established player. We also have 2 major league ready SPs just waiting for an opening. We also have Prielipp / Soto and Hill with high upside. We are in the best pitching shape I have seen in a very long time.

The chart shows percentage of WAR by category. This spreadsheet is huge and includes the WAR for every player that produced 1.5 WAR (1.2 for RPs) for every 90 win team since the turn of the century. From that data, I built a number of charts in tabs. In this case, I inserted summaries from the individual spreadsheets for each team. Then, calculated the aggregate percentages which is why you don't see the WAR itemized in this chart. In other words, this chart was constructed to help me understand the impact of acquisition methods. It was not constructed to respond here. Also, I was looking for impact players. Therefore, I only identified players that produced 1.5 WAR (1.2 for RPS). Trevor may only produced .9 WAR in 2019 which is why he is not captured in the data. Obviously, what defines impact is debatable but I did this from the point of view that players producing less than 1 WAR are not essential to building a winning team. I was trying to find objective measures to identify how winning teams were built by teams with less than average revenue.

Sure seems likely they replace Vasquez via free agency @ 6-10M. 1B is hard tom predict. I see Keaschall becoming the everyday 2B. If one of Lewis/Lee moves to 1B you would think that would be Lewis, right?

The % of WAR by acquisition method is charted below. I have only summarized the most productive teams so only have charts for Cleveland, Tampa, Oakland, and Milwaukee's highest win teams and I threw the Twins in for comparison. As you can see, none of them have come close to averaging 50% of WAR via drafting. Tampa and Cleveland have actually produced the highest percentage of their WAR by acquiring prospects. (TaP below). These teams have averaged close to 70% between drafting and trading for prospects. Tampa is 77%. Cleveland has only produced around 10% between free agents and trading for established players. 8 Oakland Athletics WINS Drafted Intl TaP Trade FA 100% Oakland 2002 103 46.0% 19.1% 25.1% 9.7% 0.0% 100% Oakland 2001 102 57.1% 11.0% 17.6% 14.3% 0.0% 100% Oakland 2019 97 24.6% 0.0% 48.6% 14.0% 12.8% 100% Oakland 2018 97 51.8% 0.0% 29.1% 19.0% 0.0% 100% Oakland 2013 96 23.5% 5.1% 41.7% 9.1% 20.6% 100% Oakland 2003 96 46.2% 21.1% 27.7% 5.0% 0.0% 100% Oakland 2012 94 8.5% 0.0% 40.1% 14.4% 37.0% 100% Oakland 2006 93 22.6% 0.0% 47.2% 8.5% 21.7% Oakland Total 97.25 35.0% 7.0% 34.6% 11.8% 11.5% 7 Cleveland Guardians WINS Drafted Intl TaP Trade FA 100% Cleveland 2017 102 24.3% 19.3% 44.3% 4.3% 7.8% 100% Cleveland 2007 96 30.5% 38.2% 31.3% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Cleveland 2016 94 33.1% 22.7% 44.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Cleveland 2019 93 34.0% 17.8% 44.1% 4.0% 0.0% 100% Cleveland 2005 93 7.5% 21.8% 51.4% 2.5% 16.8% 100% Cleveland 2022 92 34.2% 19.7% 46.2% 0.0% 0.0% 100% Cleveland 2013 92 14.9% 0.0% 50.1% 10.2% 24.8% Guardians Total 94.57 25.5% 19.9% 44.5% 3.0% 7.1% 6 Tampa Bay Rays WINS Drafted Intl TaP Trade FA 100% Tampa Bay 2021 100 24.5% 5.9% 54.0% 0.0% 15.6% 100% Tampa Bay 2023 99 13.8% 9.8% 66.2% 0.0% 10.2% 100% Tampa Bay 2008 97 45.7% 0.0% 33.2% 4.5% 16.6% 99% Tampa Bay 2019 96 18.6% 0.0% 45.8% 9.0% 26.0% 100% Tampa Bay 2010 96 64.7% 0.0% 22.1% 9.1% 4.1% 100% Tampa Bay 2013 92 50.7% 0 28.6% 8.5% 12.2% Tampa Bay Total 96.67 36.3% 2.6% 41.6% 5.2% 14.1% Average All 96.16 32% 10% 40% 7% 11% 5 Minnesota Twins WINS Drafted Intl TaP Trade FA 100% MN Twins 2019 101 36.3% 24.7% 0.0% 9.1% 30.0% 100% MN Twins 2006 96 39.7% 3.3% 44.3% 12.7% 0.0% 100% MN Twins 2010 94 50% 0% 21% 8% 21% 100% MN Twins 2002 94 59.8% 0.0% 35.0% 5.2% 0.0% 100% MN Twins 2004 92 31.9% 7.6% 55.5% 5.0% 0.0% Twins Total 95.40 43.6% 7.1% 31.1% 8.0% 10.2% Average All 95.85 34% 11% 38% 7% 10% 4 Milwaukee Brewers WINS Drafted Intl TaP Trade FA 100% Mil Brewers 2023 92 27.3% 0.0% 19.8% 52.9% 0.0% 100% Mil Brewers 2021 95 58.1% 0.0% 34.6% 7.3% 0.0% 100% Mil Brewers 2018 96 4.9% 0.0% 29.4% 37.8% 27.9% 100% Mil Brewers 2011 96 31.0% 4.1% 30.0% 12.8% 22.1% Brewers Total 94.75 30.3% 1.0% 28.5% 27.7% 12.5% Average All 95.30 32.3% 4.3% 38.5% 12.4% 14.6%

IDK how I missed Castro. The reason I did not include France is that his salary is so low that his replacement will cost at least $820K so there won't be any savings. They can probably afford to keep everyone. The bigger problem long-term is having so many important players coming off the same year (2028). It would very likely close their window. If they can get an equivalent replacement in Matthews / Festa / Prielipp they could sustain a very good rotation at a lower cost. I see a similar situation with OFers. At least, I am hoping Jenkins, Emma, and others will allow them to trade Larnach or Wallner in the next year and a half.. We would be taking a page out of the Ray's playbook.

Here are the numbers for changes in 2026. They project around $125M with arbitration increases. Vasquez 10,000,000 Paddack 7,500,000 Bader 6,250,000 Correa 5,833,000 Columbe 3,000,000 Dobnak 3,000,000 Total 35,583,000

Have you considered that they have 34.68M coming off the books next year. They could keep Lopez/Ryan and Ober but spending would have to go up to keep all of the players that will be ARB-2 and Arb-3 in 2026-27, especially if Lewis/Wallner and Larnach perform well. Jeffers comes of in 2027 but Duran and Jax are free agents along with Lopez/Ryan and Ober in 2028. Trading Lopez would make it feasible to keep them all. Matthews will replace Paddock. If Festa or Prielipp are also mid-rotation or better, they will be able to move one of Lopez/Ryan or Ober. Moving Lopez along with the 2026 free agents coming of would give them $55M to spend if they just maintain current spending levels. Obviously, they can't add 2+ year contracts next year if they want to cover 2027 arbitration increases. The only players coming off in 2027 are Jeffers, Tonkin, and Topa.