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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Dobnak's $3M also comes off and Correa's salary is reduced by $5.833M . That's another almost $9M. I don't see them doing anything in the OF. They have Martin in AAA. They are not going to sign anyone if Jenkins and GG continue to perform at their current level. Rosario might be in that mix as well. Of course, Rodriquez is also a possibility. They have 4 guys with a legit shot to be there by June 1st next year so any change is likely to be from within the organization. Lee is establishing himself, so the INF make-up is a product of a couple things. Does Royce get it together? If yes, Lee goes to 2B. If no, Lee goes to 3B. The big question is do they sign or trade for a 1B. They really need to let France go by the deadline. Clemens and or Keaschall can play 1B and it would really help if they can fit Julien or Sabato on the roster to audition them to fill the role long-term. If they are out of the playoff hunt, Vasquez needs to be released and Cardenas auditioned as Back-up catcher. If they are not convinced after auditioning Cardenas, they can sign a BU Catcher on a 1 year deal.
  2. Major League Ready
    Olivar still needs further development defensively. He only threw out 7% of runners in 2022. He got to 13% for 2023-24 which just does not cut it at the ML level. He is up to 20% in 2024 so there is hope but Cardenas is a better receiver and throws out over 30% of runners. Cardenas also had a slightly higher OPS at AA as compared to Olivar. Olivar is 2 years younger so he might end up overtaking Cardenas but for right now Cardenas is the only one of the two IMO that could possibly takeover the BU catching role next year.
  3. Major League Ready
    Some of these guys in Wichita can't get here soon enough. Culpepper's OBP is .406, Jenkins .429 and Gonzalez is .460. BTW .... Austin Martin has a .479 OBP with the Saints. Perhaps there is help on the horizon.
  4. Major League Ready
    This would be a good way to decimate our chances in a playoff series for this season and the next two. Plus, we have a highly ranked OF prospect in AAA and two in AA. I would much rather make Bader a 2 year offer and keep Ryan. Duran has more upside but at the moment Bader is the better or at least equivalent all-around player. Keeping Ryan and extending Bader would be far better than trading Ryan for Duran.
  5. Major League Ready
    I suspected Sabato was just on a hot streak to start the year. It sure looks real now. He as obviously made some impactful changes. It sure would be nice if this guy comes out of nowhere to be a quality MLB bat. We are due for some nice surprises. Really liking the GG break-out as well.
  6. Major League Ready
    The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency. Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair. My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here. The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. Which replacement causes you the most concern? 1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro. 2) Festa replaces Paddack 3) Julien or Sabato replaces France 4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez. 5) Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader. #5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.
  7. Major League Ready
    I would assume Kiersey goes back down When Keaschall is ready which should be relatively soon. Martin is the guy earning a spot but I don't see room unless they trade Castro.
  8. Major League Ready
    I am among the most ardent supporters of the need to develop young/inexpensive players and I have been pointing to the Rays and Guardians as examples for a long time. However, a couple things should be pointed out here. One, most TDers actively speak out against the operating models of these teams. The most repeated themes on this site might be "dumpster diving" and "cheap Pohlads". Tampa does waaay more "dumpster diving" and they spend far less that the twins. Two, there is a point of diminishing returns. Players best years tend to be the years they are arbitration eligible. If the team was able to add talent in a perfectly uniform manner, they would have 13 prearb players with 13 arbitration eligible players or players or extensions and never have the need to add a single free agent. They could average $10M on arbitration players and be within their current spending level. I agree with your basic point here. They have been mediocre in adding young talent and that won't cut it with below average revenue. I do see this ratio improving soon. Paddack will be replaced by Festa / Matthews. France will be replaced by Julien or Sabato. Vasquez might be replaced by a FA but Cardenas has a good shot at that spot given his defense. Bader is 50/50. If they agree to terms with him, one of Larnach or Wallner gets traded. Coulombe might be resigned or replaced by another free agent but we also might see one or two of the prospects being used in multi-inning relief role. The development of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin will hopefully force a trade of Larnach or Wallner and further increase the ratio. My bet is the ratio will improve in a month and pretty much stay that way.
  9. Major League Ready
    The pitchers that demonstrate they have what it takes to be a starter can be stretched out once they reach AAA. Spreading the innings usage out in this way does not burn up young pitchers but still gives them plenty of innings from a developmental standpoint.
  10. Major League Ready
    I have heard and seen a lot of talk about Alcantara too. You would think their fans would riot if they remain hot and still sell him off. Their payroll is only $67M but he is by far the highest paid player. This one will be interesting to watch. BTW ... The $67M is with $12M retained for Avisail Garcia which drops to $5M next year. They don't need to save the money but this franchise makes the Twins look like wild spenders.
  11. Major League Ready
    This all looks good but I don't see Miami trading Alcantara unless the return assumes he is fully healthy / Cy Young level pitcher he has been in the past. That will cost waaaaay more than Emma. That's going to be Soto / Jenkins and a couple other top 30 prospects. He had a clunker last time out but why sell low? My guess is that nobody is going to pony up what they want unless he is great between now and the deadline. They will hope that he has a good 2nd half and they can look at trading him over the winter. Love the Harry Ford trade.
  12. Major League Ready
    I would be interested to hear why you think Wallner is untouchable. He has produced .2 WAR at this point of the season. He was very good last year so I understand that prospective but untouchable?
  13. Major League Ready
    You might be right. If he has great potential, he should be ready after giving him the rest of the year at AA and the first 2-3 months of next at AAA. He will be 23 1/2 at this time next year.
  14. Major League Ready
    He has a wRC+ of 100 for the last 6 weeks. He is neither hurting or helping. I could see holding on to France if this team looked like a playoff team which they do not. We should take note of what Detroit did last year. They invested in the future. (Keaschall / Julien / Sabato / Rodriquez / Martin / Cardenas) All of these guys could be auditioned this year.
  15. Major League Ready
    I would like to see them trade France if they continue to struggle offensively. Julien has offensive upside compared to France. Let's find out this year if Julien or perhaps Sabato can provide a solution for next year instead of finding out next year that we still don't have a solution.
  16. Major League Ready
    Cardenas has taken Cartaya's spot which makes sense. Cardenas is the only catcher in the system that might be able to help next year.
  17. Major League Ready
    Our only disagreement is that your focus is immediate. I am pointing out that there is an alternative on the not-too-distant future. It really does not matter this year unless this team makes serious improvements in a number of areas very soon. This is why I am more concerned about having a solution on the horizon.
  18. Major League Ready
    I don't get it either. The next 2 guys to join the club will likely be Lewis and Keaschall who are RH. The next wave is likely to be (in rough order) E. Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Sabato / Jenkins / Culpepper / Cardenas and Debarge. 5 of the 7 are RH.
  19. Major League Ready
    Over the last 10 seasons the Tigers have had a win percentage of .44 or 71 wins. The Twins are at .494 or 80 wins so you appear to be influenced by recency bias. The Tigers have done a little better job of drafting and one draft pick (Skubal) can make a world of difference. The other big difference is that the Twins are getting nothing out of Lewis who was a 1/1 pick. A year ago nobody would have complained about that pick and hopefully we won't be remorseful a year from now. All that aside, the are now good after absolutely sucking for a decade so we should at least recognize a more macro view.
  20. Major League Ready
    The Tigers 3 highest paid players account for $65M in payroll. The Twins top 3 Cost $74M. The Tigers and Twins have almost exactly the same payroll. Their spending for the last few years has outpaced the rest of the division. The complaints about spending are misguided and worn out. Their current failure is a combination of Ober's sudden ineffectiveness, Correa's mediocre play, and Pablo's injury. It also does not help that Lewis, Julien and Miranda turned into pumpkins.
  21. Major League Ready
    Correa's wRC+ is below average and his defense is average at best. Fangraphs projects to be a 2.0 WAR player and BB Reference projects him to be .2 WAR. That's quite a difference. Regardless, it's quite feasible Culpepper could produce better results from day 1 in the league which is probably by this time next year. Now, if Correa gets back to his career norms offensively, he will be harder to replace as long as his defense does not continue to decline.
  22. Major League Ready
    It's not possible to build a big league club in a mid-market without a great farm system. So, while this sounds witty, it completely ignores reality. Show us an example of a successful mid market team built on trading for established players and/or expensive free agents. The table below shows the acquisition method for 2025 Detroit players that are on pace to produce 1.5 WAR or greater. 2025 Tigers Acquired WAR Riley Greene Drafted 3.0 Zach McKinstry AaP 2.6 Gleyber Torres FA 2.3 Dillon Dingler Drafted 2.0 Javier Baez FA 1.8 Spencer Torkelson Drafted 1.4 Wenceel Perez Intl 1.0 Colt Keith Drafted 0.9 Kerry Carpenter Drafted 0.8 Tarik Skubal Drafted 4.3 Reese Olson AaP 1.2 Casey Mize Drafted 1.1 Will Vest Drafted 1.1 Acquired by: Drafted 8 62.1% International Draft 1 4.3% Acquired as Prospect 2 16.2% Trade for Proven 0 0.0% Free Agent 2 17.4%
  23. Major League Ready
    Right there with you Dman on every point. One slight tweak would be to add a catching prospect to the focus on pitching you propose. That's a real weakness unless Cardenas has a great year. They could find a decent free agent catcher to bridge the gap but getting one via trade for an expiring contract would be a very nice boost to this team. I have always really like Stewart and would not be surprised if another team would pony up for him given he is not a free agent until 2028. He does seem injury prone but with 2 1/2 years of control I would not want them to let him go unless it was a meaningful prospect. If Duran is traded, the deal needs to include a teams #1 or 2 prospect plus a couple others.
  24. Major League Ready
    I continued to be astonished by people wanting to "dump Buxton's contract". He is on pace to produce 6.8 WAR for a little over $15M. That's 1WAR for every $2.3M. He is a bargain. Of course he is having a good year. Last year he produced 3.7 WAR which is still a bargain at a little over $4M WAR. We are going to shed 35.6M next year. Of course, we are going to add some cost for arbitration increases but we do not need to shed a highly productive contract. If a team made a crazy offer for him, anyone is tradeable, but his contract should not be the reason to get rid of him.
  25. Major League Ready
    Probably but the biggest gains are probably post 2027. The Twins need to accumulate more talent. The current roster simply does not have what it takes. Of course, many teams improve organically but there are also many cases of where very good players were traded away and the return accumulated talent that elevated the seller's future. Look at the result of Washington trading Soto. Those players are on place to produce almost 20WAR for 10% of Soto's contract and they will be contributing for several years.
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