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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Not really. One can't happen without the other. This illustration of how trading away a good player can impact the future is good to know as we absorb what happened in the last few days.
  2. Major League Ready
    In looking at Roden's baseball reference page I noticed the Jays played him a couple of times in CF and he played a few Milb games in center. Not enough to suggest he is a CF but it makes me think he must be a decent fielder. Anyone seen a scouting report on his defense? I saw a scouting report that said he ranked in the 95th percentile for contact but it did not say much about his defense. BTW ... His K rate in AAA this year is 9% with an 11% walk rate.
  3. Major League Ready
    You hit the nail on the head with the last sentence. Bradley / Abel and Rojas made their starting pitch very deep. They are going to trade 1 or 2 of the big 3. That's how high impact prospects are acquired. How did the Royals build their WS team? It started with trading away Zach Greinke. There is a phase 2 this winter.
  4. Major League Ready
    The Dodgers only gave him 17 PAs in this month. They probably would like him to get his timing back and perhaps gain some confidence.
  5. Major League Ready
    It's going to be interesting to see this play out. Abel is listed on the 40 man as "minors". He has only had 6 major league starts. Bradley is established so he goes to the rotation but what do they do when Pablo comes back. Who gets the 5th spot between SWR / Festa and Abel? Maybe they go to a 6-man rotation or they drag out Pablo's return as long as they can.
  6. Major League Ready
    I am looking at this in the context of the next year (Deadline 2026) I think they get rid of at least one of Larnach / Wallner. They will evaluate all the potential OFers at the end of the year. If they have a replacement, at least one of Larnach / Wallner is traded. Probably Larnach. Given we have two very good prospects in AA, I could see another traded at next year's deadline unless Wallner is crushing. In that case he can DH a play RF part-time. Outman produced 3..9 WAR in his first season with a 35%K rate. The 40% rate you cited was 44 PAs. His value is he can play CF. I agree he might flame out but he might also start hitting again, improve that K rate a little, and be a pretty valuable player. Don't get me wrong, Outman was not what I would have chosen in trade for Stewart. I hated it, but I can see what they were thinking. We will have to let it play out.
  7. Major League Ready
    Could not agree more. I had stated in another post that they have a replacement in Lee. While I am not a big Lee fan, he is not much of a drop-off given Correa's current production. Lee is the bridge to Culpepper and hopefully we don't wait for whoever is the plan B to Culpepper.
  8. Major League Ready
    People keep saying this, but they spent about $20M more this year than people were predicting here. People also said they would never sign Correa in the first place or Donaldson. There were a lot of skeptics where extending Buxton was concerned and they did extend Pablo so this assertion they never spend is just not true. I am also expecting new ownership to be a little more aggressive out of the gate.
  9. Major League Ready
    Could it be that they are really high on Culpepper and want him at SS? Correa could bounce but he does not look like a SS going forward and his bat does not play as well at 3B, especially if we get the good version of Royce Lewis. BTW .... I just checked baseball savant and Lewis is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B. Of course, Correa's arm is quite a bit better. I think it's quite possible the twins saw the team as being better by the end of next year with Culpepper at SS and Lewis at 3B with an extra $20M plus to spend on other needs or extensions? The money could be used at some point (probably not next year) on a 1B or Catcher if they are unable to fill those holes.
  10. Major League Ready
    How much difference do you think $300K makes in terms of return. It's rounding error. Also, the return is only underwhelming if you expect the moon. Roden is major league ready and his in-zone contract rate was in the 95th percentile. Rojas is a 50 FV prospect.
  11. Major League Ready
    I had a similar reaction. My thought was why all these OFers when we already have good OF prospects that are relatively close. As I thought about it ... I think they are quite confident in Jenkins but that's just one guy. They need four OFers. They can trade from depth if they are so fortunate as to end up with more than they need. By this time next year I see Buck & Jenkins and the competition for the 3rd and 4th OFer roles starts tonight. I would think one of them is either Rodriguez or Outman because they need a back-up CFer which probably explains why they are taking a shot at Outman.
  12. Major League Ready
    I was anxiously awaiting the details of the Stewart trade. There were several possible scenarios I had concocted in my head. Outman was not one of them so I was quite disappointed. Obviously, our FO believes he can be the player that produced almost 4 WAR in his first season. I sure hope they are right. The silver lining is I am not at all worried about our OF. Buck sure looks like he has a few good years left in him. I want to believe Wallner can be a 900 OPS guy and Jenkins will be here soon enough. Between GG / Rodriguez / Martin / Outman and Roden, we should be able to put together a very good OF by this time next year.
  13. Major League Ready
    Absolutely agree that if it's a typical full rebuild they should trade all three. I think this situation is unique because of the pending sale. They could trade one of the big three, get an impact prospect back plus a couple others, and remain competitive given their pitching depth. If you break it down by SP / RP / INF / OF they only gutted the BP. The only position player of note to get traded is Correa which is not that big a deal given his current level of play. We won't lose that much going with Lee and I see that as a net positive once Culpper is here. Correa is aging out a SS before our eyes. Culpepper was going to take over anyway. What were we going to do with Correa. Lewis looks like the better choice at 3B at the moment. I realize his rebound is recent but I would take Lewis and the extra money invested elsewhere over Correa. Keaschall takes over 2B. That's a net gain. Now, find a 1B and you have a better infield than we have seen lately with the risk of an albatross contract. How about the OF? Buxton has not slowed down a bit. We still have Larnach and Wallner but we have several upgrade options no more than a year off if they are really that good. I believe Buxton and Jenkins are two-thirds of the equation by this time next year. Between Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Outman / Roden and Martin our OF is upgraded considerably over the present over the course of the next year. It makes no sense to keep all three but I see them working hard to remain competitive while they remake this team. I think one or maybe two of Pablo / Ryan / Ober get traded this off-season. I could see one going in the off-season and another at the deadline next year as they reconfigure the starting rotation around Matthews / Bradley / Abel / Rojas / Festa / Prelipp. I am not sure about SWR. They also have higher end pitching prospects like Soto / Hill / Quick and a couple others who look to have high ceilings. Where does that leave us? I completely agree with you but think it plays out more slowly than trading all three of this winer.
  14. Major League Ready
    Complete rebuild. No, they need to rebuild their BP. The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off. The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace. He is already becoming suspect at SS. We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent. Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B. Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez. Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level. Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy. That's a lot of OF depth. They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild. It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter. My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.
  15. Major League Ready
    I would bet your prediction is correct. I would not agree they should rush very good prospects at AAA when they just just acquired two OFers that already have Major league experience. Outman produced 3.9 WAR his first year then got hurt and lost his job which can happen pretty easily in LA. They would not have traded Stewart for him if they did not believe in Outman. You can disagree with them on Outman but now that they have invested in him, Outman will get a look. He is also the CF back-up. Roden has struggled in his first 100 ABs but he hit at every level including a 919 OPS at AAA this year. There is nothing left for him to prove at AAA so now is the time to see if he can make the jump. They have Martin as well. They are not going to rush the guys in AA when they have three guys that are ready and need a look right now. Lee plays SS for now. Culpepper likely gets promoted to AAA any day now and he takes over from Lee sometime next season. Same reason, no reason to rush him. They have a lot of players at AA / AAA that are ready or will be ready by this time next year. The rest of 2025 and 2026 will be devoted to sorting out all of these OFers and Pitchers.
  16. Major League Ready
    That's a creative solution. They would likely still need to eat some salary, but I would like to see it happen. I look very forward to an outfield of Buxton / Jenkins and Rodriguez. It will be fun to watch athletes patrol the OF at Target Field. It would likely mean Lee plays SS until Culpepper arrives but that's OK. With the OFers mention above and Keaschall / Culpepper, this team will have very good athletes at every position outside of C and 1B remains to be seen.
  17. Major League Ready
    Twins are looking at JC Escarra from the Yankees. Vazquez is a replacement level player. By definition, he is not hard to replace. They could get an equivalent player in free agency for half of what they are paying Vazquez. Where winning a WS is concerned, they are nowhere near winning a WS with this collection of talent. Therefore, we need to ask ourselves how to get there. Free agency is not an option. The growing cost of our arbitration players will consume our budget. Option 2 is do we have superstar prospects joining the team next year and will they develop in time to win a WS by 2027 when Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Duran and Jax all become free agents. Highly unlikely. Option 3 - Can we trade prospects for 2-3 elite players and elevate this team to true contender? That option entails trading away Jenkins / Matthews / Keaschall and a few others. Ask yourself what small or mid-market team has elevated their team to contender with this strategy. Then ask, which teams elevated their status by trading away established players. Chicago won the WS in 2005 with a home grown team. Over the next 19 seasons, one small/mid market team has won the WS. The 2015 Royals who acquired their best player (Cain) and starting SS (Escobar) by trading Zach Greinke. The most successful small market team (Cleveland) has traded away more established players than any team I can think with the possible exception of the Rays. The other most successful small market team. If we chose option 3 and cash in most of our major assets, how does the future look? Bleak for several years is the likely answer.
  18. Major League Ready
    Fair enough. If we look at other writers that offered an opinion, what do we see. I found 3 articles grading the trade. The Twins got two Bs and an A-. Not stellar but a long way from the gloom and doom here. The point remains it's good to look around for opinions that are not from fans. MPLS Star Trubune The Athletic Clutch Points
  19. Major League Ready
    Thanks. It's nice to get an unbiased view.
  20. Major League Ready
    Sure, you are absolutely right, they could have gotten another prospect. It would have been someone with a miniscule chance of ever playing in the majors. I guess our difference lies in that I could care less about that kind of prospect. The other difference is that I accept it's a business and expect it will be run accordingly. In their shoes, I would take the savings over a prospect with a 100:1 shot every time as would anyone else that has ever been responsible for the P&L in a $300M business.
  21. Major League Ready
    So, it's not possible that Detroit was offering Jimenez and another team was offering a prospect that the Twins thought was equal or that they liked a little less? The Twins say "hey Detroit we like the other team's prospect but if you take Dobnak we will take your offer, Are you saying that kind of gamesmanship does not take place in Major League trades? The only possibility is that absolute equity is negotiated in every instance and no team is ever outmaneuvered by another team?
  22. Major League Ready
    I think your first sentence says it all. It's likely more than one thing is true in this trade. Maybe they were down to two prospects and Jimenez was the prospect they really wanted. Yet, they were able to convince Detroit to take Dobnak in the deal. It's quite possible they handled this masterfully. However, for those who are inclined to look for the negative, there is a logical reason to interpret this negatively. Given we are all uniformed, I tend to look at simplistically and ask was the return reasonable. I certainly didn't expect anything better so I am not going to complain they saved a little money this year and next.
  23. Major League Ready
    I agree but some of these deadline deals surprise me. The return for Tanner Scott last year was pretty shocking given he was a rental. Two top 50s still seems highly unlikely but a top 50 and a top 100 plus another decent piece seems attainable given the market. I am just guessing the potential of this particular deadline. If the circumstances provide unique opportunity, I would not feel bad about cashing in Duran for a major haul. We need to shake it up.
  24. Major League Ready
    My interpretation is that there are a lot of pitchers that are effective one or twice through the order. Can they develop specifically for that role and maximize effectiveness? Probably. They might also be thinking this approach would cover more innings. If they can get 2 IPs twice a week that's over 100 IPs. 180-200 IP from 2 BP arms would be great. That would be a good way to preserve the BP. Again, I will wait and see if this can be executed. In theory, I like the idea of a couple guys that can go 2-3 innings per outing twice a week. If they can make this an effective strategy, I will like it a lot. I give them props for thinking outside the box. It's a little Tampa Bayish.
  25. Major League Ready
    It's a lot easier to enter the game against the 4/5/6 or 5/6/7 hitters than it is to face the top of the order. It gives them the opportunity to pitch more innings without facing the top of the order 3 times.
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