Major League Ready

You definitely have a point. This could be a new profit driven owner ceasing the opportunity to cut payroll for the next few years. This could be a new owner implementing a Tampa Bay operating model and spending level despite having more revenue. Being an optimist, I see the slightly more likely explanation being they did not see a realistic path to a strong contender without a pretty major rework of the roster and this was the most effective path.

Falvey actually has a pretty good track record selling at the deadline so I am not sure I would read a lot into them allowing him to make these deals. The only one that really throws me is Varland. The return for the guys with 2 1/2 years remaining (Duran/Jax) is likely as high as it's going to get. They also negate the risk associated with injury. Varland threw me but I think I understand where they are going. The big 3 all expire at the end of 2027. They are not going to hold on to them hoping 2027 will be competitive. Not after selling off in this magnitude. They want to make sure they can sell off Lopez/Ryan and still have a very good rotation by 2027. Let's say they keep Ober. That gives them Ober / Matthews / Abel / Rojas / Festa / Bradley / SWR that have made it to the ML level and Rojas / Prielipp / Morris ready soon. By 2027 they should have Soto / Hill and Quick on the verge. I don't like Outman for Stewart but I think very highly of Stewart and might be overvaluing him. I see the potential value in Outman and hope I am dead wrong.

When is a rebuild ever intended to make the following season better? This article makes absolutely no sense in the context of what just happened. Next year is going to be about sorting out several new OFers and several SPs when they likely trade at least 2 of the big 3 away this winter. Of course, they will also start the process of rebuilding the BP but that likely takes shape over a 2-year period. Some of the numerous SP prospects we have will be converted to RPs over the next couple of years. The INF will not have as many prospects involved. The big questions will be when Culpepper arrives and who is auditioned at first base. The goal between now and the end of the 2026 will be to solidify as many positions as possible. Best case scenario is things go really well next year, they pick-up a couple premium MLB ready prospects via trading Lopez/Ryan/Ober and they head into 2027 with a shot at a playoff spot.

Did you miss the part where I said "If the rumors are true"? Honest question. Were you trying to say you have more information than the rest of us (and the MLB Commissioner) and the reports are misinformation?

If this rumor that the sale is imminent, there is no way this sell-off happens without the consent of the new buyer. What's the total savings? It's under $30M this year. The Pohlad's get virtually none of the cost savings benefit if the team is sold before the start of next season. You think they would risk alienating the new buyer for $30M? Not a chance. If the rumors are true, the new buyer endorsed this sell-off. There are two possibilities. One, they are purely profit motivated. Two, like most of us here, they looked at the current roster as needing several upgrades. They looked at selling out the future to take a shot with this roster and decided the better chance at success, especially sustained success was to rebuild.

How much better would they be today with Wood / Abrahams and Gore? They would have their production which is huge plus they would have an extra $24M they would not be paying Bogaerts. While it's $25M a year now for a little less production, what will it look like between the ages of 35-40.

Or you just don't want to acknowledge that it's nuanced. and any form of tweaking this primary group of players is just a refusal to actually do something. If you would prefer to continue walking down a path to nowhere, you won't be alone.

Or KC or Detroit. Perhaps more to the point. Was this group going to win a WS? Was there a reasonably likely path to WS contender? The chatter here was understandably negative so how does it make sense to fight so hard to continue to do the same thing and expect a different result. I realize nobody was advocating doing the same thing but continuing on with these primary players was highly unlikely to accomplish anything significant. The presence of Correa / Buxton and Lopez along with a lot of arbitration players negated free agency as a solution. The only other option would have been to empty out the farm system because the kind of players we needed to win a WS was going to cost multiple 50-60FV prospects and a few 45 FVs thrown in. If you don't get it done in 26 or 27 you're looking at a very long road back. I am very glad they didn't empty the farm system to prop up this group. I also was tired of watching the same mediocrity especially as it became clear the was not a path forward for this group that had a good probability of success. So, I guess we all need to decide if we wanted to continue to watch an OK team for the next few years or option 2, empty the farm system and bet on this group in 26-27 which I think would have been utter incompetence. Option 3 rebuild. We can complain about the options and the failure that lead to them but I would not complain that they took decisive action. I pray they land a couple real premium prospects for Ryan / Lopez that along with the long list of talent we have in the system go on to win the WS. It's probably 28 before we are a serious contender but I like the odds of actually being a contender much better on this path.

I wouldn't bet either way. Look at his 11 years in the league. The first 3 were consistently good. The last 8 he is well above average for 4 years and right around average the other 4 years. Regardless, his value to the Twins was a SS. With that fading, it's time to move on but I will say I think he would be a good guy to have around to mentor young players.

I don't think it's as simple as they rebuild the BP. Starting pitching just got a lot deeper. However, I think you will see phase 2 of the rebuild this winter when they sell at least one of Lopez / Ryan / Ober. They don't want all three of those contracts expiring at the same time and those assets are the ones that return prospects most capable of becoming stars. They will take the rest of this year and 2026 to evaluate the plethora of young SPs. It will be mostly sorted out by 2027. My guess is that one of Lopez / Ryan / Ober remains. The other 4 will be some combination of Matthews / Festa / Bradley / Abel / Rojas / Prielipp / Raya / Morris with Hill / Soto / Quick and a couple surprises on the horizon. There will also be a couple high caliber SP prospects from the Lopez / Ryan or Ober trades. Larnach and or Wallner could also be traded. My guess would be Wallner. Just like the SPs, they are going to sort through a bunch of OF prospects. Right now that includes Martin / Roden and Outman. Next year Jenkins and Gonzalez will be added to the mix. The INF is pretty simple. They need to find a 1B. Lewis is at 3b. Lee is SS until Culpepper arrives although their are other candidates. 2B is probably Keaschall. I think the BP gets cobbled together next year with a couple mid-tier free agents and a couple of the guys mentioned above will be converted to RPs.

Bullseye. Should Falvey had said he thought this group was never going to be a true contender and their best chance at building a contender was to blow it up and collect as much talent in the process as possible. It happens. The success in Houston and Detroit started with striping it to the studs. However, that message would not be received well by fans or players even though it's likely the truth. He did say the part about this being the best path toward building a contender but left out any discussion of the shortcomings of the current group as constructed. Correa conducted himself very well here. I have no problem with Correa's conduct. I just don't see a fit even if they had not blown it up. His skills were declining at SS and his value diminishes at 3B. Given they did blow it up, we are far better off reconstructing the IF over the next year to year and a half. I will be pulling hard for Culpepper to come in and lock down that position for the next several years.

Not really. One can't happen without the other. This illustration of how trading away a good player can impact the future is good to know as we absorb what happened in the last few days.

In looking at Roden's baseball reference page I noticed the Jays played him a couple of times in CF and he played a few Milb games in center. Not enough to suggest he is a CF but it makes me think he must be a decent fielder. Anyone seen a scouting report on his defense? I saw a scouting report that said he ranked in the 95th percentile for contact but it did not say much about his defense. BTW ... His K rate in AAA this year is 9% with an 11% walk rate.

You hit the nail on the head with the last sentence. Bradley / Abel and Rojas made their starting pitch very deep. They are going to trade 1 or 2 of the big 3. That's how high impact prospects are acquired. How did the Royals build their WS team? It started with trading away Zach Greinke. There is a phase 2 this winter.

The Dodgers only gave him 17 PAs in this month. They probably would like him to get his timing back and perhaps gain some confidence.

It's going to be interesting to see this play out. Abel is listed on the 40 man as "minors". He has only had 6 major league starts. Bradley is established so he goes to the rotation but what do they do when Pablo comes back. Who gets the 5th spot between SWR / Festa and Abel? Maybe they go to a 6-man rotation or they drag out Pablo's return as long as they can.

I am looking at this in the context of the next year (Deadline 2026) I think they get rid of at least one of Larnach / Wallner. They will evaluate all the potential OFers at the end of the year. If they have a replacement, at least one of Larnach / Wallner is traded. Probably Larnach. Given we have two very good prospects in AA, I could see another traded at next year's deadline unless Wallner is crushing. In that case he can DH a play RF part-time. Outman produced 3..9 WAR in his first season with a 35%K rate. The 40% rate you cited was 44 PAs. His value is he can play CF. I agree he might flame out but he might also start hitting again, improve that K rate a little, and be a pretty valuable player. Don't get me wrong, Outman was not what I would have chosen in trade for Stewart. I hated it, but I can see what they were thinking. We will have to let it play out.

Could not agree more. I had stated in another post that they have a replacement in Lee. While I am not a big Lee fan, he is not much of a drop-off given Correa's current production. Lee is the bridge to Culpepper and hopefully we don't wait for whoever is the plan B to Culpepper.

People keep saying this, but they spent about $20M more this year than people were predicting here. People also said they would never sign Correa in the first place or Donaldson. There were a lot of skeptics where extending Buxton was concerned and they did extend Pablo so this assertion they never spend is just not true. I am also expecting new ownership to be a little more aggressive out of the gate.

Could it be that they are really high on Culpepper and want him at SS? Correa could bounce but he does not look like a SS going forward and his bat does not play as well at 3B, especially if we get the good version of Royce Lewis. BTW .... I just checked baseball savant and Lewis is in the 87th percentile for range at 3B. Of course, Correa's arm is quite a bit better. I think it's quite possible the twins saw the team as being better by the end of next year with Culpepper at SS and Lewis at 3B with an extra $20M plus to spend on other needs or extensions? The money could be used at some point (probably not next year) on a 1B or Catcher if they are unable to fill those holes.

How much difference do you think $300K makes in terms of return. It's rounding error. Also, the return is only underwhelming if you expect the moon. Roden is major league ready and his in-zone contract rate was in the 95th percentile. Rojas is a 50 FV prospect.

I had a similar reaction. My thought was why all these OFers when we already have good OF prospects that are relatively close. As I thought about it ... I think they are quite confident in Jenkins but that's just one guy. They need four OFers. They can trade from depth if they are so fortunate as to end up with more than they need. By this time next year I see Buck & Jenkins and the competition for the 3rd and 4th OFer roles starts tonight. I would think one of them is either Rodriguez or Outman because they need a back-up CFer which probably explains why they are taking a shot at Outman.

I was anxiously awaiting the details of the Stewart trade. There were several possible scenarios I had concocted in my head. Outman was not one of them so I was quite disappointed. Obviously, our FO believes he can be the player that produced almost 4 WAR in his first season. I sure hope they are right. The silver lining is I am not at all worried about our OF. Buck sure looks like he has a few good years left in him. I want to believe Wallner can be a 900 OPS guy and Jenkins will be here soon enough. Between GG / Rodriguez / Martin / Outman and Roden, we should be able to put together a very good OF by this time next year.

Absolutely agree that if it's a typical full rebuild they should trade all three. I think this situation is unique because of the pending sale. They could trade one of the big three, get an impact prospect back plus a couple others, and remain competitive given their pitching depth. If you break it down by SP / RP / INF / OF they only gutted the BP. The only position player of note to get traded is Correa which is not that big a deal given his current level of play. We won't lose that much going with Lee and I see that as a net positive once Culpper is here. Correa is aging out a SS before our eyes. Culpepper was going to take over anyway. What were we going to do with Correa. Lewis looks like the better choice at 3B at the moment. I realize his rebound is recent but I would take Lewis and the extra money invested elsewhere over Correa. Keaschall takes over 2B. That's a net gain. Now, find a 1B and you have a better infield than we have seen lately with the risk of an albatross contract. How about the OF? Buxton has not slowed down a bit. We still have Larnach and Wallner but we have several upgrade options no more than a year off if they are really that good. I believe Buxton and Jenkins are two-thirds of the equation by this time next year. Between Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Outman / Roden and Martin our OF is upgraded considerably over the present over the course of the next year. It makes no sense to keep all three but I see them working hard to remain competitive while they remake this team. I think one or maybe two of Pablo / Ryan / Ober get traded this off-season. I could see one going in the off-season and another at the deadline next year as they reconfigure the starting rotation around Matthews / Bradley / Abel / Rojas / Festa / Prelipp. I am not sure about SWR. They also have higher end pitching prospects like Soto / Hill / Quick and a couple others who look to have high ceilings. Where does that leave us? I completely agree with you but think it plays out more slowly than trading all three of this winer.

Complete rebuild. No, they need to rebuild their BP. The starting pitching is incredibly deep with Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Matthews / Bradley / Festa / Abel and SWR already at the ML level and Rojas / Morris / Prelipp / Culpepper and Raya not far off. The only change in the INF is Correa and his current level of production will not be hard to replace. He is already becoming suspect at SS. We will be far better off with Culpepper at SS and $66m to spend extending some of this young talent. Lewis is finally hitting and Keaschall takes over 2B. Add someone who can play 1B and the INF looks considerably better at this time next year. Where the OF is concerned we have the same OF as yesterday with several potential upgrades that should be ready next year in the form of Jenkins / GG / Rodriguez. Outman has produced at the ML level so it's realistic to believe he can again and Roden hit at every level. Martin looks like he could be a great utility guy. That's a lot of OF depth. They do have a lot of work to do in the BP but it'd not what I think of in terms of a total rebuild. It could become one if they trade a couple of their established starters this winter. My bet is they trade one of Pablo / Ryan/Ober given the number of starters they have now.