Major League Ready

Unless they are willing to spend at record levels, investing good prospect capital in this team would indicate they are either incompetent or perfectly satisfied to put a mediocre product on the field year after year. I am not saying they won't trade good prospects and not spend but it would be to appease fans because it certainly is not the best strategy if they want to actually contend. I have wondered if people were right about their lack of desire to build a serious contender. This off-season will make it clear if they are satisfied to be a perennial fringe playoff team.

Good point on visibility through sales tax records. That would be $41.50 per person so that's a pretty viable indication of the average ticket price. It's the other half of this equation (concessions) that's a not so clear. In this discussion, concession revenue has been approached as if the Twins get 100% of the revenue. Delaware North is their concessions partner. What percentage do they get and of course there are product costs although gross profit margins have to be 80 plus percent, I would assume the staff are employees of Delaware North. My guess is the Twins take a percentage. That would make it transparent between teams for calculating the revenue split.

If we use $35 for the average ticket price, I doubt the average fan spends $100 on concessions. This article on concession revenue estimates $56 on concessions. That would be $91 so the $100 estimate seems pretty reasonable.

I can't find any source that suggests the average spend per fan is $140. I have seen a low of $52 and a high of $84. This article on the average cost for all MLB teams lists the costs for the Twins at $171 for a family of 4 which is only $35/person. Even if we use an estimate of $100 Fan which is almost triple the cost according to this article ... 300,000 Fans X $100 = $30M X .52 = $15.6M

I Googled how much does the average fan spend at a MLB game and got a lot of different answers but your estimated average spend is double the highest estimates I found.

Totally agree which is why I said it's unlikely. It would not work for a player with multiple years remaining or a player with no value. Therefore, it would take a more complex transaction. For example, a player with 1 year $30M remaining where the Twins could flip the player and eat $20M-30M. There is probably some sort of scenario where this could work but a lot of things would need to line up.

Of course, I agree completely, especially about picking a lane and committing. What I was getting at is people don't really want a 72-win team, they want to believe that everything will go perfectly, and this 72-win team will somehow compete for a playoff spot. As ill-advised as it is to pursue that hopeful scenario if you are a baseball executive, it's still fun to believe.

I applaud the creativity. The only thing is we would not want the deadweight blocking players that could be part of the solution. If they were forced to spend to get above "grievance level", cut the player, eat the money and bank the prospect. I don't see it being at all likely, but it couldn't hurt to look for such an opportunity.

I could be wrong but I just don't see trading Jeffers as all that important because I would not anticipate him returning a prospect with high impact potential. Would we anticipate anything more than a 45FV prospect? I guess what I am saying is I need to see the specific return before I agree the Twins need to trade Jeffers.

The beauty of baseball is that we can dream of a scenario where Lewis is a 130 wRC+ guy, and Lee improves drastically, and they find a 1B, and Jenkins comes up and excels immediately, and the starting staff stays healthy and perform well, and they completely rebuild their BP, and they win the close games. In that scenario, as unlikely as it might be, the Twins could conceivably have a shot at a playoff position. This is what some fans want. If you ignore or don't recognize the future cost, why give up anything now no matter how low the odds are of it coming together?

I would find it much more interesting to watch a young team with real potential develop than watch another 70 or even 80 win team. Anyone hoping for them to patch the numerous holes and take another shot with this core can't complain that the twins are not interested in contending. The only merit in that strategy is appeasing fans of this mindset because the likely outcome is continued mediocrity.

I am not sure what place they would take but it sure seems unlikely to earn a playoff spot. This is why I have been among the biggest supporters of a rebuild. I just can’t see us contending next year and the 27 season is quite uncertain. Let’s talk about 2026. Our BP is non-existent. That would be fixable with the Dodgers budget but we have to convert a few starters. The good news is that we have several good candidates. The bad news is that will take the entirety of the 2026 season and will probably still be in progress in 2027. The OF also requires the transition of both corner OFers. The good news is that two of our top prospects are OFers and we have a couple other possibilities in Roden/Gonzalez. The bad news is that these top prospects still need a little Milb time. In other good news, we have Martin and Roden who deserve a shot and this gives us maximum opportunity to fill these starting positions with very good players. The bad news for 2026 is that this transition requires a focus on developing players and that process will take most of 2026. Where the INF We have no 1B which could be fixed. We have a 3B with significant potential but he is performing well below average. We have a SS whose defense would require offensive production well above average and he is well below average. The good news is we have a top prospect to transition. The bad news is he is not quite ready. The sum of these three parts tells me the best thing for this team is to focus on transitioning all of these players. How often can a team rebuild to this degree in 1 year? If it all came together, we would likely contend for a playoff spot in 2027 but we would lose Ryan, Lopez after 2027 and Buxton would be in his last year. The question becomes, should we forego acquiring several players, some of which have a good chance to be impact players through 2032-33 for a reasonable shot at making the playoffs in 2027. Keeping in mind, contention in 2027 assumes many things come together, do we want a one year shot or several years with the addition of what would be a considerable addition of talent from trading Ryan, Lopez, and perhaps Buxton.

You speak as if Falvey has to trade him. If Falvey can't get a good return, he can simply hold on to him. If Buxton wants out, he will have to be reasonably cooperative to facilitate his wishes. What they could do is offer to add a year or two to his deal and then pay part of it in the deal. That would probably look pretty good to a guy who's contract expires going into his age 35 season.

When you start with the absurd assumption of trading quality players for "low or mid-level prospects" the conclusion is most assuredly going to be equally absurd. If you honestly believe that's what would happen, the problem is that you believe the FO is dumber than every poster on this site because not one of us would even consider what you are suggesting. I understand your disappointment, but this is not an informed take.

Me too. I would also take Tong, Williams, and Kussow without hesitation which makes me wonder if the Mets would do it. As Similar deal for Ryan and I like our odds of putting a contender on the field in 28. Thanks for putting that up @Mike Sixel I am still unsure how teams will view Lopez in terms of being injury free.

I find the conceptual approach you are advocating to be more about strategy and direction while individuals players are the nuts and bolts of executing the strategy. Both important and both are interesting but as Kenny Rodgers once said, you got to know when to hold em and know when to fold em.

That sure could sway their plans. However, they could put Williams at 2B, Keaschall at 1B, Chowolsky at SS, and Culpepper at 3B. Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Martin / Roden in the OF and that's pretty promising. If nothing else, that's a whole different level of athleticism.

I don't have any ideas other posters have not already discussed. I have been saying for a while that I am hoping for up the middle infielders. Yes, the common wisdom is to take the best talent you can get but it would be very helpful if the best talent we can get is a middle infielder. If I thought Adian Miller could stick at short, he would probably be my first pick although if you told me Arias was the better prospect, I would not argue the point. Jett Williams would be a fun guy to watch but not quite the same level in my modestly informed opinion. A great 1B prospect would also be big just because our only hope is a conversion. Of course, 1B is also the position we envision having a guy with an elite bat. Basallo would be great but I think there is no chance the Orioles trade him. I have always liked Harry Ford. He is the guy I hoped they could swing in the Polanco deal.

I liked your post. Not because I prefer two 50 FV guys but because it's really hard to make a deal for 55+ prospects. I actually couldn't say which type of deal I preferred until I saw the actual options. It's a tough call. I just hope like hell they get it right. The players acquired from Ryan/Buxton/Lopez along with the other depth in our farm system certainly have the potential to produce a real contender. It also wouldn't hurt to win the draft lottery next summer. 😁

If they were to get a normal number of wins out of the extra expenditure that would equate to 5 wins. Do you think they are an 82-84 win team as constructed? I think you are at least 10 wins high.

It's quite reasonable that a very good veteran player does not want to be part of a rebuilding team so we can't blame Buxton for wanting out. I would assume that this would be a third reason teams clear out every decent veteran player when they rebuild. The second is cost and the most important reason is to acquire players that contribute to a contending team. I sure don't blame Buxton just and I also understand why he might get traded.

I would not even begin to think we have more than a general idea. Ask me in three years. I think we might finally know how to rate the Berrios trade at the end of this year. We might even have a reasonably good take on the Polanco trade by the end of this season as well but that one might be next year.

That makes absolutely no sense. Did you mean what is the over under on the number of times the Twins offense gets shutout? The record is 13 times so 30 is pure hyperbole.

One could argue that the July 1 roster will be a better indicator of the club's future. The assimilation of Jenkins and Culpepper is huge and a couple other guys like Able / Prielipp / Rodriguez / Gonzalez could also be key to ongoing success.

I sure hope they make significantly more change. We all know the definition of insanity.