Major League Ready

I agree San Diego has had modest success winning 4 playoff series in the past 20 years. There is no doubt that spending an additional $75M a year would help. However, I am not sure that we should count on getting an owner who spends well outside the team’s revenue because he is dying. The Padres lost $53M in 2022 and $113M in 2023. It's true, San Diego has had improved success through spending. However, expecting another owner to follow that example is very likely to be disappointed. St Louis has considerably more revenue. Population base does not cover payroll. Revenue covers payroll. Seattle is a very poor example. The did sign 3 free agents for more than $10M/year. They produced virtually nothing. Haniger, Suarez, and Garver made $43M combined and produced .5 fWAR between the three of them. They also spent $21M on Castillo who pitched 8 innings and produced 0 WAR. Grand total, they got .5 WAR by spending $54M. Seattle is a really poor example. BTW … Seattle has won two playoff series in the past two decades so not a great aspiration. They generate 30-50M more in revenue and they have spent less than the Twins over the past 5 years. The Twins have actually spent an average of $10 more than Seattle over the past 5 years according to Spotrac. They certainly are not an example of a team that has been willing to spend or found success through spending.

What team with similar revenue has had post season success by "spending money"?

I had the same thought until the old Ray Stevens Lyric came to mind ... There is none so blind as he who will not see. That quote actually goes back to the 1500s so it's been a thing for a long time. What's really amazing is that the one thing we all agree on is that this team sucks. Yet, we can be a playoff team if we just keep Ryan and replace the guys we traded. Of course, we could not replace the guys we traded in free agency even if we spent $160M.

In the past 15 years, there have been 4 teams in the bottom half of revenue that produced 20% of their WAR via free agency. 2015 Pirates, 2018, Brewers, 2019 Rays, and the 2019 Twins. None of those teams are exactly know for attracting or signing free agents. Of these teams, the Twins have spent by far the most in free agency.

All three really slow unathletic players. Ballesteros is a poor defender so not a guy I want headlining a deal for our best trade asset. Cason Kelly is a free agent so trading Amaya for Ryan probably does not make the Cubs a better team. It looks to me like a deal with the Cubs would be either Wiggins or Rojas along with Long. Even Wiggins and Rojas does not seem like a great return but maybe my expectations are too high.

Anything over $110M assumes they abandon the rebuild, Teams don’t sign expensive free agents in a rebuild. What would be even worse would be to fill a roster spot with an average veteran player that could be used to audition real solutions. It would make sense they add to the BP via free agency because they have nothing so unless they fill the BOP with guys like Kline, they need something but the BP is the only place I see free agent spending as likely. I really don’t understand the obsession with payroll knowing they likely continue to rebuild. If they abandon the rebuild, and assume they spend $150M, there is much to discuss about how to spend $58M on free agents. We would have even more to discuss about what prospects we would be willing to give up because $58M in free agency does not get us close to contention. That’s just an opinion and I have seen very little in terms of how spending $150M would produce a contender. That expenditure projects to produce roughly 7 additional wins. Even if we don’t consider all of the lost production lost at the deadline, projects to 77 wins. team. Of course, we did lose significant production from (Duran/Jax/Varland/Columbe/Bader and Correa so we probably would not project to 77 wins even if we spent an additional $55M.

This is creative thinking. I like it and would encourage this kind of move. Our difference here is that I see a low for low move as very secondary in importance with a considerably lower chance of impacting the team. Don't get me wrong. This sounds like something the Rays would pull off and have it work out. I would rather trade Ober and Wallner for Lawler than trade Matthews.

I agree on Jeffers and have said previously he could go if the return is a player with a reasonable shot at making an impact. I just don't see that happening for 1 year of Jeffers. We shall see. Larnach very likely goes. I didn't mention him because I see the return as inconsequential. So, I ask my self who could bring a return of consequence. The only two players are Ryan and Lopez, IMO. They may make other trades but who else can they trade that would return a player that matters. Lewis has no value right now. Why sell at the bottom? Trading Keaschall makes zero sense, and trading any prospect of consequence makes absolutely no sense unless it was trading from depth like OF prospects for an infield prospect or catcher. IDK if there will be 2 trades or 6 but I just can't come up with any scenarios beyond Ryan and Lopez that will matter.

No. I just think they are rebuilding and this kind of trade makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for a rebuilding team. It's literally the opposite of what rebuilding teams do.

Who are you thinking. As you know, Buxton has a no-trade clause. Jeffers is the only salary of consequence, and I think there is a reasonable chance they keep him around for some continuity with a young pitching staff unless they get a really good return.

My guess is that Lopez starts the season with the Twins but gets traded at the deadline unless we have a shockingly good 1st half. That would put us around $92M (see below) to start the year. This assumes they run with Clemens and/or prospects at 1B. IDK if they get a free agent or if maybe they give Mendez or Fedko a month in the minors at 1B and then give one of them a go. Sabato might even get a shot if he starts out the year well. 1 Pablo Lopez 21,750,000 2028 2 Bailey Ober 5,500,000 Arb-2 2028 3 Zebby Matthews 780,000 4 Taj Bradley 780,000 5 SWR 780,000 Abel / Festa / Morris / Rojas / Prelipp / Culpepper / Ohl Relief Pitchers 6 Free Agent 7,500,000 7 Free Agent 5,000,000 8 Free Agent 3,000,000 9 Cole Sands 780,000 10 Cody Funderburk 780,000 11 Cody Laweryson 780,000 12 ? 780,000 C-Opt 13 ? 780,000 Morris / Raya / Duarte / Culpepper / Klein Catchers 14 Ryan Jeffers 6,500,000 Arb-3 2027 15 Perades / Cardenas 780,000 Infielders 1B Clemens / Sabato / Fedko or Trade 780,000 2B Luke Keaschall 780,000 3B Royce Lewis 3,000,000 Arb-2 2029 SS Brooks Lee >>> Kaelen Culpepper 780,000 Utility Players 20 Kody Clemens 780,000 21 Fitzgerald >>> Brooks Lee 780,000 22 Kyler Fedko 780,000 23 Wallner >>> Gonzalez / Rosario 2,000,000 2030 Outfielders 24 Martin >>> Jenkins 780,000 25 Byron Buxton CF 15,142,857 2029 24 Roden 780,000 Carlos Correa 10,000,000 TOTAL PAYROLL 92,652,857

If they decide to abandon the rebuild, they will need to spend $200M and/or trade away considerable assets if they want to have a reasonable shot at being a legit playoff team. Even then, it would be a stretch. They have no BP, no 1B, well below average SS and 3B, and below average corner OFers, and they need a catcher. If they decide to continue the rebuild, payroll will be low by design. The only signings would likely be 2-3 BP arms because they got nothing. You don't fill those holes at SS/3B and corner OF with free agents when you have guys ready to fill those spots. 1B, maybe. BU catcher, probably.

Do you think the Pohlad's are dictating that strategy? BTW ... After the deadline, Lewis played strictly 1B and Lee was the everyday SS. Keaschall played 2B and Clemens mostly played 1B. Wallner and Larnach played corner OF. Jeffers and other played catcher. Martin was mostly in LF.

Aren't we ignoring the obvious. Is league revenue shrinking or increasing. It's been increasing at 9% year or year. That pretty good all things considered. Are the small markets viable financially? Of course they are. They are talking about expansion into more modest size markets. I am the biggest proponent here of reducing the inequity, but this seems really hyperbolic to me. The league is not dying, and they won't die if they don't do what we think is fair. The league has allowed this to happen because dominance in big markets is actually good for revenue production as long as teams like the Brewers, Guardians, and Rays provide just enough hope that it can be done on a budget.

I keep hearing this but there is no way in hell it ever happens. The small market teams would be losing $100M annually or the large market teams would need to give away an additional $250M in revenue. The value of their franchises would be cut in half. That's not happening. The only way they could make payroll more equitable is a salary cap that would significantly reduce the total dollars paid to players and that's not happening either.

I agree with Coach Wheels but I would temper it a bit. Below average revenue teams are going to have a very low probability of winning the WS unless something drastically changes in the next CBA which is not likely. An above average revenue team will win this year as they have 19 of the last 20 years. This is where we are. The realistic view is when will we have another 90-win team with a shot at the WS. In this context, I don’t agree at all that an aggressive rebuild means 5 years before we could put a 90-win team on the field. This seems like a knee jerk reaction to me without actually looking at their system and when players would arrive. Obviously, the next group of prospects has to work out better than the previous group but that goes without saying. If they don’t work out, there is no window at all. If they do work out, an aggressive rebuild means Keaschall, Culpepper, and Jenkins will all very likely to be in place by July 1 or sooner. GG and Rodriguez are here at some point in 2026. Martin/Lee will be great role players. Tait is mid 2027 or 28. On the pitching side, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Morris, and Abel are major league ready. Prielipp, Culpepper, Raya and Rojas are ready 2026-27 and they have some promising guys a little further off. An aggressive rebuild means trading Ryan and Lopez. They also have the #4 pick next year. That should yield 3 premium prospects and a couple other good prospects. There is no window at all if they fail developing these guys. However, the Twins system is positioned to put a winner on the field by 2028 and 2027 should be a lot more entertaining to watch. We should also keep in mind that they won’t have any dead weight contracts so they will be able to sign a premium free agent to compliment this group.

We just see a different level of potential. I believe Lewis, Lee, Wallner and others could definitely improve but I don’t see an 80-win team to build upon. Not even close. I see a team that won 70 games with the contributions of several players for two-thirds of the season who are no longer here. I think if the national baseball reporters would project the team as is for roughly 65 wins. It would take a lot of improvements to get to 80 wins. They have exactly one well above average player in Buxton, an average catch (Jeffers) and Keaschall in his sophomore season. The corner OF spots, 3B, 1B, and SS are well below average and we have very little in the BP. I don’t see that as a foundation to build upon.

I agree completely if the goal is to get as many wins as possible next year. Let's just say that projects to be 75 wins or even 80 if you want to be really optimistic. If the goal is to build a team that can win 90 or more games, the focus needs to be finding players that can deliver that goal. Wallner and Larnach are not players that will contribute much relatively speaking on a 90 win team. How can we rebuilding over even retooling if we run the same players out there and is running the same players out there and hoping for a different outcome a good idea. I would find it more entertaining to watch a bunch of young guys that collectively could be a great team in a couple years than watch slow / average hitting corner OFers who can't play defense or run the bases. I would be just fine with starting the year with Martin and Roden. They get a couple months to prove themselves or get replaced by Jenkins / GG / Fedko / Rosario. I don't understand the desire to continue with mediocrity when by definition it prohibits the possibility of improving. I would be just fine with the risk of losing a couple more games to have Jenkins and Martin in the corners by June 1. Let the others compete for the 4th OFer spot. The upside for several years is well worth the risk if the goal is to build a contender.

I am with you here. This team is likely to look very different by the middle of 2027 with a SS and an OF that are much more complete players. Brooks Lee can still play a valuable role as a utility IFer. That’s a very different team offensively and defensively which will be a lot more exciting to watch. It’s not rocket science. They have to get impact players in return for Ryan and Lopez. Two good players (the kind that should be returned for those players) added to Keaschall/Jenkins/Culpepper/Tait and whoever else emerges would significantly improve the odds of fielding a contender. The high 2026 draft pick and Tait should be here in 2028. There is a 22% chance for Roch Cholowsky and that pick has a good shot at impacting the team at some point in 2028 even if it’s not Cholowsky. I don’t understand the gloom and doom 5-year predictions.

Talk about hitting the nail on the head. This is what it takes to be successful and it’s far from a theoretical point. History proves your point quite emphatically. Lots of people here ignoring how good teams have been built because they don’t like the strategy that has been proven to win. The rationale is that we have not been good enough at developing. Then get better at developing but following an inferior strategy is the worst possible scenario. The whole selling hope thing cuts both ways. Is it more realistic to believe Lewis and Lee are going to go from below average to the kind of players necessary to be a serious post season team and that we can fill the many holes in the BP, as well as 1B, and BU catcher. The corner OF needs serious upgrades as well. Basically, we have a good starting staff, Buxton and Keaschall. Every other position is in need of upgrading. Yet, somehow that’s an easier scenario to believe in. Anyone unwilling to invest in the future should not complain in 2028 and beyond that the Twins are unwilling to do what it takes to build an actual contender. Trading Ryan could obviously flop but it’s what’s necessary if building a contender is the goal. If we just want the best team possible next year, keep Ryan. Win 76 games instead of 72 and forego whatever the return would have been for 6-7 years. Really bad strategy bit it requires no pain.

I would hope the headliner in a trade for Ryan or Lopez is not an A baller. I would expect it's the kind of high impact AA or AAA prospect that does not linger in the minors. There is a decent chance that type of player is up this year if they are already in AAA or early 2027 for a guy currently in AA. If they get 3 other guys in the trade, they might not be up until 2028. That's just fine if the headliner comes up early in 2027 and provides a boost like Keaschall did this year just minus the injury.

That's not really a fair comparison. Judge hit all through the minors and had a hiccup for 27 games when he first reached the majors. I love Winokur's tools as much as the next guy let's be realistic in that his hitting is still quite suspect.

Arias and Witherspoon seems steep but it couldn't hurt to float it. The fact I really like it tells me it's a real longshot.

Rodon, Lee, and Lewis were underperforming but they are likely to get an opportunity to succeed. Clemens might get a chance to start the year as well just because they have few options and probably don't look to solve that problem through free agency. Martin was trending up so he gets a shot in spite of several players competing for that position. So, where do they start and what's the succession plan if players fail? Here is how I see it. C – Jeffers 1B – Clemens >>> Keaschall / Fedko / Menedez 2B – Keaschall >>> Martin >>> Julien 3B – Lewis >>> ? SS – Lee >>> Culpepper / Fitzgerald LF – Martin >>> Jenkins / Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Fedko / Rosario CF – Buxton >>> Jenkins / Rodriguez / Fedko / Outman RF – Rodon >>> Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Rosario Jenkins is pushing someone out. Ideally, Martin plays well and Jenkins pushes his way on to the roster. The creative option could be to move Martin to 2nd and Keaschall to 1B. Now, if they could land a SS in trade, that player competes with Culpepper for starting SS, and one of them takes 3B or 2B if Lewis or Martin struggle. Point being, if they do trade Ryan or Lopez, this might be a situation where a specific position should be targeted if possible. One trade could make quite a difference.

I think what you are saying and I agree, the roster is going to get a big-time makeover over the course of 2026. IDK who ends up in the OF by the end of 2026 but the one you have listed has great potential. There are a lot of good possibilities. I think we will be pretty happy with the OF by the start of 2027. The INF does not have nearly as many candidates. SS is Culpepper's for the taking but a big trade of a SS could really shake things up. Culpepper could end up at 3B if Lewis does not step it up considerably. @tonyandrodney has been advocating for position players and while I generally agree with getting the best talent regardless of position, trading for a really good SS would be ideal at the point. 1B & 3B are the biggest question marks. I sure would like to see Lewis come alive. That would really help the cause. I would not even try to predict what happens with 1B this year. The good news is they have a pretty good shot at making a big leap forward by the start of 2027.