Major League Ready

I think the primary difference in our approach is that you are looking at what makes the team better immediately and I am looking for the solution that shortens the time required to rebuild and also the overall product produced by the rebuild. They don't need to trade Erod right now unless they are trying to contend right now. By that logic we should trade Jenkins and GG as well? If they think they can win this year, that's a good approach. Very low probability of success but the actions fit the strategy. If they are trying to build a contender, burning assets rather than methodically evaluating and protecting those assets is a very bad idea. If they embrace rebuilding, they can give Martin, Roden, and Wallner a couple months of evaluation at the ML level while simultaneously continue to evaluate the readiness of Jenkins, Erod, and GG. They can then make a much more informed decision with plenty of time left in the season to transition to other the best combination of these six players. That would be the most likely way to end the season with the best possible combination of players.

What do you do with Roden and Wallner. Wallner can DH but Roden is discarded.

They would have to demote (either to the bench or AAA) Martin or Roden. We already have a DH and part-time OFer in Wallner. Martin earned a shot last year. Roden is further along and has performed better across a larger sample size than Rodriguez. We can't complain about guys like Rooker and then discard potentially good players. Their strategy in terms of rebuilding or attempting to contend this year is also a central issue. If they are trying to win now, putting the best team on the field for opening day should be the goal. If they continue with the rebuild, waiting 1-2 months to bring up Rodriguez is of no consequence in terms of contending. It does however provide the team a couple months to evaluate Martin and Roden to determine if they are starters, or bench players. It also allows them to determine which player among the trio of Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez is ready to play at the major league level instead of just rushing someone up. If all that is not enough, burning a year of control in a players prime for 1 month when it's questionable if they are ready is incredibly poor asset management.

If there was ever a year that the Twins should take a shot at a rule 5 RP, this would be it. Give Roden or Fedko a shot at 1B. They have as good or better chance of sticking than anyone they could get in rule 5.

I am not sure I follow. Wouldn't he be less likely to burn an option if they waited until June 1 to see if he demonstrates he was ready? What if it was May 1 like Stringer Bell suggested. Would he be any less likely to burn an option if he were on the opening day roster? I would not make this decision on something that may or may not have any value when I know for certain we will have traded an entire year in his prime for 1 month when he is probably not entirely ready, in a season where we are not likely to contend. Just not remotely worth it IMO.

I think 2-3 months makes the most sense. Roden had better AAA numbers than Rodriguez and you can’t start them both. Someone has to sit on the bench. Why not give Roden a shot for 2-3 months while simultaneously giving Rodriguez a chance to prove he is ready and should be next in line. Perhaps GG is tearing the cover off the ball and shows he should be next up. It also makes no sense to burn a year of control on a high ceiling prospect that is not fully ready, especially in a year where the chances of contending are exceptionally low. You would be trading one month of a player who’s readiness is questionable for one year of that player in their prime. The benefit is far less than the cost. Of course, that's just my opinion.

If Falvey actually thinks he has the personnel to compete it could get weird. I just don’t believe he is that incompetent. Sounds like sticking up for your guys kind of rhetoric but he knows they don’t have the personnel. If he is looking to rebuild, Larnach is traded this winter and it’s not that big of a mystery in terms of where this is likely to go. There are a handful of guys in the mix. Buxton and Martin have starting jobs to begin the season. Wallner / Roden / Outman will compete for the 3rd starting spot. Wallner is probably primarily a DH. One of them will needs to be quite good over the course of the first 2-3 months of the season if Jenkins and/or Rodriquez proves they are ready to move up. Both Jenkins and Rodriquez have more complete games and a higher ceiling. Gonzalez is the wildcard. I could see him talking Wallner's place as DH / part-time OFer at some point but that might be next year. They end the season with Buxton and three of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin / Roden and Gonzalez.

Because he had a wRC+ of 111 last year vs Vazquez 55. It's quite possible he doesn't replicate that 111 wRC+ next year but I like his odds better than Vasquez. If he does, they have 2 more years of control that will work nicely while they transition Tait into the primary catcher role. If he doesn't, they lost a prospect of very marginal value. Sounds like a good risk/return equation to me.

The problem is someone is not going to be given a chance to show it. Buxton is a given. If Wallner, Martin , Wallner, and Roden are the candidates, someone DHs and someone is a bench player. Of course, someone can show it in a bench role but that approach emphasizes winning an extra game in 2026 vs building a contender. Prospects are also less likely to get a chance. What do you do when Jenkins or Rodriguez or Gonzalez show they're ready? Do we want them up in a bench role?

If the goal is to field the best team possible on opening day, Larnach should be part of the team. If the goal is to build a winner, I don’t see Larnach playing a role in that goal. As a matter of fact, he is a hindrance because he would take a roster spot away from a player that could contribute to the team contending down the road. They should non-tender him unless they believe they can trade him which seems like a reasonable possibility. Buxton and Martin are sure bets and Roden / Wallner are relatively safe bets. Outman is probably the 5th man because he can play CF. However, he has until Jenkins is up to earn his keep. He fills a short-term need for now. It will get really interesting if Rodriguez and/or GG are raking in AAA. Larnach just does not fit into this equation if the goal is building a contender.

How are you getting financial information on a private company? It would be great if you could post a link to the source of this information.

Absolutely. It is far and away the most crucial element of success. I just wanted to point out that the premise these teams draft better than others is not all that accurate. They find the most quarters in the couch cushions and they also make more trades for prospects than most teams.

Payroll does not equal the amount paid to players. They have benefits of around $17M according to Spotrac, and another roughly $22-23M in draft / international draft bonuses.

This often-floated idea that the teams producing the most young talent (Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland) are doing so by drafting is misguided. These teams acquire roughly 40% of their young talent from other teams. If we look at the players on the 2025 (97 win) Brewers that produced more than 1.5 WAR, 3 of their top 13 players were drafted, and 2 were international signings. 59% of their WAR was from players acquired from other teams, all but one of them (Yehlich) were unproven when acquired. Of course, they developed those players as well but they didn't do a superior job of drafting. 2025 Brewers (97 wins) Brice Turang Drafted 4.4 William Contreras Acquired 3.6 Sal Frelick Drafted 3.6 Jackson Chourio Intl 2.9 Caleb Durbin Aap 2.6 Isaac Collins Aap 2.6 Christian Yelich Trade 2.4 Freddy Peralta AaP 3.6 Chad Patrick AaP 2.6 Quinn Priester AaP 1.9 Brandon Woodruff Drafted 1.8 Abner Uribe Intl 1.7 Trevor Megill AaP 1.5 Acquired by: Drafted 3 28% International Draft 2 13% Acquired as Prospect 7 52% Trade for Proven 1 7% Free Agent 0 0%

I see them quite differently. Clemmens is a better fielder, especially at 2B and he is more versatile with his ability to play the OF. He is a much better roster fit given where this team stands and where it is hopefully going. When replaced, he has value as a bench player. I think it's easy to see them starting the year with Clemmens at 1B and hopefully replacing him with a converted OFer or player acquired in trade.

I will be losing my mind right along side of you but don't worry. There is no way in hell they are signing a free agent OFer with Wallner / Martin / Roden and two top prospects being OFers. This would also be the year to let the LH hitters PAs against LHPs and see if the develop. Rodriguez has a good track record hitting LHP. Worry about RH hitter next year after you give Martin / Gonzalez and perhaps Fedko a shot.

If they are that bad without Ryan and Lopez, they should definitely commit to a full rebuild.

Agree but is almost nothing really any different than nothing?

There is nowhere to go but up. You can't be blamed for the mess and it's an industry where turnarounds are expected to take much longer than any industry I can think of. It's actually a great opportunity and I doubt the current state would dissuade a capable executive especially given the strength of the farm system.

This is probably the most sensible thing I have ever read on TD

Agree but I meant in the eyes of their fans. We just had an article here on the Twins " path to contention" and Detroit is far closer to contention than us.

I was thinking similar to Ryan who is very good but not elite. Plus, there are not many very good SPs traded much less truly elite. What do you think will Skubal get traded? The Tigers were pretty bad for a decade. Do they dare trade him when they are in a contention window?

I have said quite a few times I like Clemmens as a bench player, but I don't see a problem with using him as a placeholder if 2026 is a rebuilding year. I would hope it's just for the 1st 2-3 months of the season and someone else like Mendez emerges.

I think of myself as overly optimistic, but this take is an alternative reality. Let's evaluate the components of this team starting with it's greatest strength the starting pitching. The Twins have two very good starters. There are a number of other teams with a stronger 1-2 punch and others with an equal 1-2. Their 3rd guy (Ober) looked terrible at the end of the year. The others are unproven. Overall good depth but not dominant by any stretch of the imagination. They have Buxton in the OF so that's probably their next greatest strength if he can stay healthy. He is flanked by players proven to below average and unproven players. Below average overall. They have no 1B. 2B looks good. 3B/SS are well below average. Overall, well below average. Zip in the BP. Absolutely horrible. Perhaps the worst in MLB. How in the world do you conclude this team has a path to contention that does not involve tearing up the current path?

There is a pretty good possibility that a trade changes everything. For right now, I think they start the season with Clemens while they give some prospects playing time at 1B. I included Wallner because that's a popular idea but agree with you he should not be part of the plan. I have said more than once that he does not have the hands or foot work for the position. I suspect they would have transitioned him a year or two ago if there was any chance he could play 1B.