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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    That sure could sway their plans. However, they could put Williams at 2B, Keaschall at 1B, Chowolsky at SS, and Culpepper at 3B. Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Martin / Roden in the OF and that's pretty promising. If nothing else, that's a whole different level of athleticism.
  2. Major League Ready
    I don't have any ideas other posters have not already discussed. I have been saying for a while that I am hoping for up the middle infielders. Yes, the common wisdom is to take the best talent you can get but it would be very helpful if the best talent we can get is a middle infielder. If I thought Adian Miller could stick at short, he would probably be my first pick although if you told me Arias was the better prospect, I would not argue the point. Jett Williams would be a fun guy to watch but not quite the same level in my modestly informed opinion. A great 1B prospect would also be big just because our only hope is a conversion. Of course, 1B is also the position we envision having a guy with an elite bat. Basallo would be great but I think there is no chance the Orioles trade him. I have always liked Harry Ford. He is the guy I hoped they could swing in the Polanco deal.
  3. Major League Ready
    I liked your post. Not because I prefer two 50 FV guys but because it's really hard to make a deal for 55+ prospects. I actually couldn't say which type of deal I preferred until I saw the actual options. It's a tough call. I just hope like hell they get it right. The players acquired from Ryan/Buxton/Lopez along with the other depth in our farm system certainly have the potential to produce a real contender. It also wouldn't hurt to win the draft lottery next summer. 😁
  4. Major League Ready
    If they were to get a normal number of wins out of the extra expenditure that would equate to 5 wins. Do you think they are an 82-84 win team as constructed? I think you are at least 10 wins high.
  5. Major League Ready
    It's quite reasonable that a very good veteran player does not want to be part of a rebuilding team so we can't blame Buxton for wanting out. I would assume that this would be a third reason teams clear out every decent veteran player when they rebuild. The second is cost and the most important reason is to acquire players that contribute to a contending team. I sure don't blame Buxton just and I also understand why he might get traded.
  6. Major League Ready
    I would not even begin to think we have more than a general idea. Ask me in three years. I think we might finally know how to rate the Berrios trade at the end of this year. We might even have a reasonably good take on the Polanco trade by the end of this season as well but that one might be next year.
  7. Major League Ready
    That makes absolutely no sense. Did you mean what is the over under on the number of times the Twins offense gets shutout? The record is 13 times so 30 is pure hyperbole.
  8. Major League Ready
    One could argue that the July 1 roster will be a better indicator of the club's future. The assimilation of Jenkins and Culpepper is huge and a couple other guys like Able / Prielipp / Rodriguez / Gonzalez could also be key to ongoing success.
  9. Major League Ready
    I sure hope they make significantly more change. We all know the definition of insanity.
  10. Major League Ready
    I see this claim often but it's always a generalized statement that the revenue would offset the expenditure with no supporting math. The glaring problem with your math is that 48% of the increased revenue goes to the visiting team. Your assumed benefit is off my half to begin with. Then, you have the assumption of a 600K increase. When have the Twins every had a 600K increase in attendance? Never and it’s not close. They had a 500K increase after covid which is an extreme anomaly that is irrelevant. The increases in attendance for the 101 win team in 2019 was 344,000. Let's use a semi-reasonable assumption for attendance. If everything goes extremely well and attendance is increased by 400K (which is still extremely optimistic) at an average of $75 spend per fan. The revenue gain is 400,000 * 75 * .52 = $15.6M of gross revenue. Half of that revenue is concessions. I know what their arrangement is with vendors. If we assume a 50/50 split with the vendors absorbing all of the cost of product and personnel, the concession revenue on increased attendance is about $4M. Therefore, the total increase in revenue is about $12M. In estimating the ROI, you would multiply the $12M by the probability of success. If we think the odds of success are 2:1 in favor, the expected revenue is $8M. (12 X .666) If someone knows how the concession revenue works, please jump in.
  11. Major League Ready
    With a little luck the entire outfield could be pleasantly surprising. Wouldn't it be nice to be pleasantly surprised for once? The optimist in me thinks Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Gonzalez all have the ability to make a Keaschall type impact. With a little luck things get very interesting in June/July.
  12. Major League Ready
    You said since he left. Bader and MAT were since he left but somehow you discount them. Where letting him go is concerned, I don't care what Rosario did during his Twin's career. What matters in terms of the decision to let him go is what he produced after they let him go. I was glad to see him go so that I did not have to watch him take horribly undisciplined ABs and play poor defense.
  13. Major League Ready
    You make it sound like they would have been better off keeping him. He was below replacement level in the years after they let him go. Just about anyone they put out there was better than him. What he did before he left is completely irrelevant. They also saved $24M from 22-24 that was invested elsewhere. We can debate how well that money was spent but it certainly was not a mistake to replace him and invest that money in guys like Bader and MAT.
  14. Major League Ready
    I like the idea of Gonzalez at 1B but who knows if he can make that transition. I can't find any record of him ever playing the position in a game. You would think they would be giving him a shot there if they thought there was any possibility. Who knows, maybe they have him working on it over the winter. Martin does not have the bat to be a long-term answer at 1B and if his bat got that much better, he would be more valuable in LF or perhaps a trade for a 1B or a 3-team trading returning a 1B. I hear ya on Roden which is why I believe they would not wait until August to replace him with another prospect. However, it's way too early to give up on him. There has been many a great player that struggled in their 1st 150 ABs. I think he is a better possibility at 1B than Martin.
  15. Major League Ready
    Been thinking pretty much the same thing but it could be sooner. I don't think the incumbents get more than half the season to prove they belong. We probably see at least one of the guys you mentioned by July 1. It would be a great problem to have if Martin and/or Roden are playing so well that they make it difficult to replace them.
  16. Major League Ready
    I keep asking myself how that could possibly work. Why would the top teams agree to be devalued by a billion dollars? There has to be an agreement in place, right. According to Chat GPT, there is an agreement that prevents teams from voting to take revenue from high revenue teams. Of course, it's in their best interest to maintain national interest in the game/league but I can't imagine them agreeing to concede enough to make a difference. Then, I ask myself what would be the impact of a floor. If you're a fan of a modest revenue team, they will need to go through rebuild cycles. The best amongst these teams still goes through cycles where they are not competitive. Would we want over-priced mediocre veterans taking roster spots from players that could be part of the solution. There are a handful of people that would be OK with this but not the fans that want to see the organization build a true contender.
  17. Major League Ready
    I share your concern that they won't commit. They need to have a record payroll and trade a few of their best prospects for immediate help or rebuild. If they rebuild, do it right and tear it down to the studs. Keeping proven players will get you 72 wins instead of 66 wins but it probably costs several wins for several seasons when the team has a chance to contend. They have no chance to contend in 2026. Accept it and make the unpopular decision to do the things necessary to build a contender.
  18. Major League Ready
    Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue are going to be considerably higher for a team with $325M in revenue vs a team with $650M in revenue. If you consider all the other costs, the Dodgers are going to spend more on personnel and certain other operating costs but not double. They are also not spending anywhere near double on their stadium costs, travel, equipment, office space, etc. They spend less on draft bonuses and International drafts because they typically finish higher in the standings and are allocated less. The clearest way to compare would be to compare revenue rank to payroll rank, If a team ranks 18th in revenue, ranking 18th in payroll would suggest they spend in line with their revenue.
  19. Major League Ready
    Wouldn't it make more sense in ranking "cheapness" to rank teams payroll as a percentage of revenue or revenue rank vs payroll rank? If your brother makes 300K a year and spends 30K/year on travel and entertainment, and you make $600K and spend $40K on entertainment is your brother more frugal than you? There is no topic talked about more on Twins Daily than the cheap Pohlads. Yet, no Twins writer has every actually provided an actual accounting of their spending vs other teams. You would think, given the vitriol around spending that one of the writers here would like to demonstrate the Pohlad's cheapness with a meaningful illustration of their spending.
  20. Major League Ready
    I actually totally agree with you and Chpettit19 that it's more likely 70 wins but I thought using an optimistic number kind of drives home the point.
  21. Major League Ready
    If things go really well and our SPs stay healthy, that sounds like a 75 win team at best. How can that be perfect?
  22. Major League Ready
    That's a good point. I also am not sure which is why I framed this with "if they continue the rebuild". You are absolutely right that they have not been aggressive with young players. They also have not been aggressive in rebuilding, choosing instead to get into contention by signing mediocre veterans. If they embrace a rebuild, it seems reasonable they would also embrace a more aggressive approach with young players. I guess we will find out next season.
  23. Major League Ready
    Apparently, you are defining of counting on in 2026 requires that they are on the opening day roster? I suppose that's one definition. It makes sense if you think they are going to contend. If they are rebuilding, the opening day roster is MUCH less important than the end of season roster. When any team rebuilds, it's a transition over a couple of years. The Twins will be looking to transition a significant portion of their team. It is highly likely that Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Culpepper are part of 2026. Gabriel Gonzalez has a a good shot and someone like Mendez, Fedko or even Roden could end up at 1B. Almost the entire BP and Mick Abel. Can we count Andrew Morris? nearly the entire BP will be "young / inexperienced guys. Of course, there is a very good chance there are trades made for other "young guys". If you look beyond opening day, this team will likely go through a massive turnover in the roster. It will be fun to look back in October and see how much the team has changed.
  24. Major League Ready
    That would be the go big or go home version of a rebuild,
  25. Major League Ready
    We would be relying on someone getting hurt in the first month and the back-up role means 1/3 the ABs of a starter . If an injury happens in the first 6 weeks in the result is effectively what others are saying about holding Rodriguez back a month or two. Putting Roden in a B/U role greatly diminishes the opportunity to evaluate him. What do we say all the time about good prospects? It makes no sense to have them up to ride the bench. If you want to come to the conclusion he is no longer a good prospect after 150ABs, go ahead and replace him but that is very premature IMO. Many a player has struggled over their first couple hundred ABs and went on to be very good players. There is a version of scenario you propose that I like. That would be if Roden gets some time at 1B and handles it well while his bat improves. However, that scenario also requires a couple months to play out. It would be ideal of Roden starts hitting and Jenkins or Rodriguez is raking, Roden moves to the primary 1B/back-up OFer and Jenkins or Rodriguez takes an OF spot. That would be a major improvement in the team.
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