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Major League Ready

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  1. Major League Ready
    I keep hearing this but there is no way in hell it ever happens. The small market teams would be losing $100M annually or the large market teams would need to give away an additional $250M in revenue. The value of their franchises would be cut in half. That's not happening. The only way they could make payroll more equitable is a salary cap that would significantly reduce the total dollars paid to players and that's not happening either.
  2. Major League Ready
    I agree with Coach Wheels but I would temper it a bit. Below average revenue teams are going to have a very low probability of winning the WS unless something drastically changes in the next CBA which is not likely. An above average revenue team will win this year as they have 19 of the last 20 years. This is where we are. The realistic view is when will we have another 90-win team with a shot at the WS. In this context, I don’t agree at all that an aggressive rebuild means 5 years before we could put a 90-win team on the field. This seems like a knee jerk reaction to me without actually looking at their system and when players would arrive. Obviously, the next group of prospects has to work out better than the previous group but that goes without saying. If they don’t work out, there is no window at all. If they do work out, an aggressive rebuild means Keaschall, Culpepper, and Jenkins will all very likely to be in place by July 1 or sooner. GG and Rodriguez are here at some point in 2026. Martin/Lee will be great role players. Tait is mid 2027 or 28. On the pitching side, Bradley, Matthews, SWR, Morris, and Abel are major league ready. Prielipp, Culpepper, Raya and Rojas are ready 2026-27 and they have some promising guys a little further off. An aggressive rebuild means trading Ryan and Lopez. They also have the #4 pick next year. That should yield 3 premium prospects and a couple other good prospects. There is no window at all if they fail developing these guys. However, the Twins system is positioned to put a winner on the field by 2028 and 2027 should be a lot more entertaining to watch. We should also keep in mind that they won’t have any dead weight contracts so they will be able to sign a premium free agent to compliment this group.
  3. Major League Ready
    We just see a different level of potential. I believe Lewis, Lee, Wallner and others could definitely improve but I don’t see an 80-win team to build upon. Not even close. I see a team that won 70 games with the contributions of several players for two-thirds of the season who are no longer here. I think if the national baseball reporters would project the team as is for roughly 65 wins. It would take a lot of improvements to get to 80 wins. They have exactly one well above average player in Buxton, an average catch (Jeffers) and Keaschall in his sophomore season. The corner OF spots, 3B, 1B, and SS are well below average and we have very little in the BP. I don’t see that as a foundation to build upon.
  4. Major League Ready
    I agree completely if the goal is to get as many wins as possible next year. Let's just say that projects to be 75 wins or even 80 if you want to be really optimistic. If the goal is to build a team that can win 90 or more games, the focus needs to be finding players that can deliver that goal. Wallner and Larnach are not players that will contribute much relatively speaking on a 90 win team. How can we rebuilding over even retooling if we run the same players out there and is running the same players out there and hoping for a different outcome a good idea. I would find it more entertaining to watch a bunch of young guys that collectively could be a great team in a couple years than watch slow / average hitting corner OFers who can't play defense or run the bases. I would be just fine with starting the year with Martin and Roden. They get a couple months to prove themselves or get replaced by Jenkins / GG / Fedko / Rosario. I don't understand the desire to continue with mediocrity when by definition it prohibits the possibility of improving. I would be just fine with the risk of losing a couple more games to have Jenkins and Martin in the corners by June 1. Let the others compete for the 4th OFer spot. The upside for several years is well worth the risk if the goal is to build a contender.
  5. Major League Ready
    I am with you here. This team is likely to look very different by the middle of 2027 with a SS and an OF that are much more complete players. Brooks Lee can still play a valuable role as a utility IFer. That’s a very different team offensively and defensively which will be a lot more exciting to watch. It’s not rocket science. They have to get impact players in return for Ryan and Lopez. Two good players (the kind that should be returned for those players) added to Keaschall/Jenkins/Culpepper/Tait and whoever else emerges would significantly improve the odds of fielding a contender. The high 2026 draft pick and Tait should be here in 2028. There is a 22% chance for Roch Cholowsky and that pick has a good shot at impacting the team at some point in 2028 even if it’s not Cholowsky. I don’t understand the gloom and doom 5-year predictions.
  6. Major League Ready
    Talk about hitting the nail on the head. This is what it takes to be successful and it’s far from a theoretical point. History proves your point quite emphatically. Lots of people here ignoring how good teams have been built because they don’t like the strategy that has been proven to win. The rationale is that we have not been good enough at developing. Then get better at developing but following an inferior strategy is the worst possible scenario. The whole selling hope thing cuts both ways. Is it more realistic to believe Lewis and Lee are going to go from below average to the kind of players necessary to be a serious post season team and that we can fill the many holes in the BP, as well as 1B, and BU catcher. The corner OF needs serious upgrades as well. Basically, we have a good starting staff, Buxton and Keaschall. Every other position is in need of upgrading. Yet, somehow that’s an easier scenario to believe in. Anyone unwilling to invest in the future should not complain in 2028 and beyond that the Twins are unwilling to do what it takes to build an actual contender. Trading Ryan could obviously flop but it’s what’s necessary if building a contender is the goal. If we just want the best team possible next year, keep Ryan. Win 76 games instead of 72 and forego whatever the return would have been for 6-7 years. Really bad strategy bit it requires no pain.
  7. Major League Ready
    I would hope the headliner in a trade for Ryan or Lopez is not an A baller. I would expect it's the kind of high impact AA or AAA prospect that does not linger in the minors. There is a decent chance that type of player is up this year if they are already in AAA or early 2027 for a guy currently in AA. If they get 3 other guys in the trade, they might not be up until 2028. That's just fine if the headliner comes up early in 2027 and provides a boost like Keaschall did this year just minus the injury.
  8. Major League Ready
    That's not really a fair comparison. Judge hit all through the minors and had a hiccup for 27 games when he first reached the majors. I love Winokur's tools as much as the next guy let's be realistic in that his hitting is still quite suspect.
  9. Major League Ready
    Arias and Witherspoon seems steep but it couldn't hurt to float it. The fact I really like it tells me it's a real longshot.
  10. Major League Ready
    Rodon, Lee, and Lewis were underperforming but they are likely to get an opportunity to succeed. Clemens might get a chance to start the year as well just because they have few options and probably don't look to solve that problem through free agency. Martin was trending up so he gets a shot in spite of several players competing for that position. So, where do they start and what's the succession plan if players fail? Here is how I see it. C – Jeffers 1B – Clemens >>> Keaschall / Fedko / Menedez 2B – Keaschall >>> Martin >>> Julien 3B – Lewis >>> ? SS – Lee >>> Culpepper / Fitzgerald LF – Martin >>> Jenkins / Gonzalez / Rodriguez / Fedko / Rosario CF – Buxton >>> Jenkins / Rodriguez / Fedko / Outman RF – Rodon >>> Rodriguez / Gonzalez / Rosario Jenkins is pushing someone out. Ideally, Martin plays well and Jenkins pushes his way on to the roster. The creative option could be to move Martin to 2nd and Keaschall to 1B. Now, if they could land a SS in trade, that player competes with Culpepper for starting SS, and one of them takes 3B or 2B if Lewis or Martin struggle. Point being, if they do trade Ryan or Lopez, this might be a situation where a specific position should be targeted if possible. One trade could make quite a difference.
  11. Major League Ready
    I think what you are saying and I agree, the roster is going to get a big-time makeover over the course of 2026. IDK who ends up in the OF by the end of 2026 but the one you have listed has great potential. There are a lot of good possibilities. I think we will be pretty happy with the OF by the start of 2027. The INF does not have nearly as many candidates. SS is Culpepper's for the taking but a big trade of a SS could really shake things up. Culpepper could end up at 3B if Lewis does not step it up considerably. @tonyandrodney has been advocating for position players and while I generally agree with getting the best talent regardless of position, trading for a really good SS would be ideal at the point. 1B & 3B are the biggest question marks. I sure would like to see Lewis come alive. That would really help the cause. I would not even try to predict what happens with 1B this year. The good news is they have a pretty good shot at making a big leap forward by the start of 2027.
  12. Major League Ready
    Agree with 1 and 2 and partially with 3. I think when looking at drafting success, we should look at International and the regular draft separately only as a matter of determining areas of strength and weaknesses. For example, if they are drafting well but doing nothing internationally, there is an opportunity for improvement. The Twins have not done much since Polanco/Kepler/Sano. I have said it before so pardon me for repeating myself but trades for established players and trades for prospects should not be lumped together. They are strategic opposites. One vs the other is constant point of contention on this site so how can the two be considered the same. Looking at them together does not illustrate how and where a team has succeeded or failed in terms of acquisition strategy and execution. IMO, looking at how successful teams have balanced the two strategies is telling.
  13. Major League Ready
    I think looking at the number of players on the 26 man acquired in a given way misses an important element. How did they acquire the players that contributed the most? Mediocre or below average players don’t make playoff teams. The Brewers had 13 players that produced 1.5 WAR or greater. Shouldn’t we look at how the productive players we acquired. 3 were drafted (Turang/Frielick/Woodrum) 2 were International signings (Churio/Uribe) 8 players that produced 1.5 WAR or greater were acquired in trades but we need to qualify those trades. A trade for an establish player and a trade for an unproven player are very different strategically. The difference in these two strategies is a major source of contention here all the time, right? Should we trade for established players or should we keep our prospects and should we trade Joe Ryan for example. 1 player (Yehlicj) was definitely established when acquired. Will Contreras had one 2 WAR season so most people would say he was not establish but was a notch above a minor league prospect. The other 6 (Durbin/Collins/Peralta/Patrick/Priester/Megill) were unproven/prospects. It's noteworthy that their 3 top producing pitchers were acquired as prospects. Most of the successful Cleveland and Tampa teams are constructed similarly. They tend to have 4 or 5 players they drafted and developed and just as many players that were unproven players acquired in trade or the occasional waiver wire guy that pans out. These three teams have also done a good job of flipping expiring players for players that contribute for multiple years.
  14. Major League Ready
    Really good question. I think we see Jenkins and Culpepper as soon as they indicate they have AAA figured out.
  15. Major League Ready
    Are you familiar with the practices of the Guardians, Rays, and Brewers? Have you ever looked at how many of their productive players are acquired as prospects?
  16. Major League Ready
    Ish!
  17. Major League Ready
    You are correct, pitching is very valuable to contenders and teams with a good chance to contend place a high value on top of the rotation SPs. Are the Twins serious contenders? If so, they should definitely keep Ryan. If they are not, they are probably giving up a very good return for inconsequential gain. Could the Twins get a return similar to the White Sox return for Crochett. They got teel who is already contributing and Bradon Montgomery, their #1 prospect who is ranked 35 on MLB ,com and a couple other guys. What is reasonable to expect in return for Ryan. I don't know how we say if it's a good idea to trade him or not without knowing the return.
  18. Major League Ready
    I hope they trade him for a guy that is at least as good for 6+ years. Now, I have 80% of the money I would have spent on Ryan to spend elsewhere like extending Jenkins or Keaschall or signing a very good FA to fill a key role. That would be a far better result. Obviously, you have to trade for the right guy.
  19. Major League Ready
    His salary over the next two years is a non-issue given the amount of young talent here and on the way. The much more pertinent question is should the Twins operate like Milwaukee, Tampa, and Cleveland trading for assets that will contribute in 2027-2033 in a year they don't reasonably project to contend?
  20. Major League Ready
    There is probably another plausible explanation. For example, Polanco had been very mediocre in the previous two seasons and had injury issues. They had a rookie (Julien) who badly out-performed Polanco the year before. They could replace him with a player who at the time looked considerably better and use the $10M to fill holes. We commend Cleveland and Tampa for doing this but it's wrong for the Twins? Of course, Julien turned into a pumpkin, but I don't know that I would fault the organization for believing they had a replacement or blame them for capturing that savings and spending it elsewhere. I guess you point is still technically correct. They didn't want to pay a guy $10M when they had a guy they could reasonably believe would do the job just as well for $750K. They opted to spend the money instead on other players. Is the motivation saving money when you spend it elsewhere.
  21. Major League Ready
    I specifically noted that reasonable people might see this differently. I see it as they had enough money to sign all of the people you mentioned because they traded Polanco. Who knows which player that trade enabled but I have a feeling it was make or break for guys around $1M. You also only mentioned the failures but not the piece that was a success. That's not objective, IMO.
  22. Major League Ready
    I think an objective person would find it reasonable to say the savings from that trade went to signing Carlos Santana who produced 2.9 WAR. Now, assigning pluses and minuses to all the stuff is not an exact science and reasonable people can see things differently. However, it's not fair to omit the Santana piece of this puzzle. No doubt DeSclafani had an injury history that was suspect so let's call that out. Let's also acknowledge that Sanatana was part of the puzzle. Santana was miles better than Polanco and we also have a good prospect in GG.
  23. Major League Ready
    I see where you are going with this but you are assuming that the Twins assumed Descalfani would be injured and took him on knowing the money was sunk. This is a substantial reach. He was healthy to start spring training. I think the more reasonable take was they spent $4M for someone that would have cost more but was discounted given the inquiry risk and they took that risk. Topa delivered 1.0 WAR for $2.5M. It's not much but it was also partially the product of injury and it's 3X the average production per free agent dollar spent so you can't say the Twins got nothing. You can say the deal for Topa had the potential to produce more but you can't say 1 WAR for 2.5M is a negative. If we go with the premise the Twins assumed DeScalafani was sunk, we can say GG cost $4M given Topa was a reasonable value. That's the cost of the 22nd overall pick this year without actually giving up a draft choice. Not bad. If he becomes an average MLB player, the Twins win this trade. If he does nothing they blew $4M which is modest in the context of how many draft bonus dollars produce nothing.
  24. Major League Ready
    What was the cost of trading Polanco? That's easy. 1 season at .3 WAR. He was then non-tendered and Seattle’s contractual control terminated. Any team could have then signed Polanco so the cost was 1 year at .3 WAR. We can say the Twins should have signed him as a free agent but anything that happened after Seattle non-tendered him is the result of a different decision. Who here thinks Cleveland, Tampa or Milwaukee would have opted for a good prospect over what Polanco produced if they had a crystal ball and knew exactly what was going to happen?
  25. Major League Ready
    I would suggest the word is contend because you could say a 72-win team can compete but personally, I find no difference between 72 vs 75 wins or 78 wins. In order to contend, this teams needs at least 4 BP arms. We need significant improvements at 1B/SS and to a slightly lesser degree 3B, and one of the corner OF spots, and BU catcher. Is it realistic to believe that can be done even if the spend an additional $50M? That's about 6 wins. Is this team 6 wins away from contending. My guess is much closer to 16 to get a playoff spot and more than that to be a legit contender for a playoff run. They have two distinct paths they can go down, they can replace these weaknesses through free agency and trade or they can replace them with prospects. IT makes zero sense to replace these players and then later in the season replace the replacements with prospects. They would get a little better very fast but slow down the process of actually building a contender, IMO.
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