Major League Ready
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Everything posted by Major League Ready
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The owners were talking about an international draft during the last CBA. I understood that to be separate from the Rule 4 draft which I think makes sense. Combining them complicates the process and makes it more difficult to change down the road. Are there any issues you are thinking of that a separate international draft would not resolve?
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If they are going to pretend to compete in 2026, in other words keep Ryan/Lopez, they should trade Ober so that they can dedicate another spot to someone who could someday contribute to a playoff team. Go with Ryan/Lopez/Bradley/SWR/Matthews. Add two free agents RP to Sands / Funderburk / Topa and Orze plus two of Festa / Ohl / Morris / Adams / Klein. Orze could be replaced by any other these five. Prielipp and Raya have not demonstrated they're ready. They can compete with the three among Festa / Ohl / Morris / Adams / Klein that don't make the roster. That's pretty decent depth that should be able to step up when the opportunity presents itself.
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Me neither. I don’t have a good answer. While I agree the owners created this mess, the players are contributing significant obstacles to them cleaning it up. The most pragmatic way for them to narrow the gap is the luxury tax. However, the MLPA took a very hard position on the luxury tax during the last CBA. As I am sure you know, half of that money goes directly to players and the other half goes to lower revenue teams. At one point in the negotiations, they were also trying to get the revenue sharing decreased. I don’t think there is a realistic way to actually get anything close to parity. This model and its flaws were developed a long time ago. Based on the last CBA negotiations the owners are far more willing to initiate changes that would at least mitigate the disparity. The MLBPA fought hard to maximize the disparity. That’s quite an obstacle. It’s also understandable. The MLBPA’s charter is to maximize the player slice of the pie. I would guess parity and the good of the game is not a high priority. The game is healthy enough to pay individual players hundreds of millions. Parity is not a concern for the MLBPA.
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I don't think this is remotely true. Most league‑wide decisions require a ¾ vote. Some require unanimous consent, especially when they materially change the economic rights of individual clubs. Asked Copilot and got this ..... 1. The MLB Constitution protects club property rights Local revenues are considered club property, and stripping them would likely require unanimous approval or a constitutional amendment — not just a majority. 2. High‑revenue teams would never agree Teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Mets generate enormous local revenue. They would fight any attempt to redistribute all of it. Even reaching the 23‑owner threshold would be nearly impossible. 3. The MLBPA would immediately challenge it The union would argue that such a change alters the economic landscape in ways that affect player salaries, requiring negotiation under the CBA. 4. Antitrust exemption limits MLB’s antitrust exemption is narrow and does not protect owners from lawsuits over internal economic coercion. A forced revenue seizure could trigger legal challenges from within the league. 5. Broadcast contracts Local TV deals are individually negotiated legal contracts. Owners cannot simply vote to void them.
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Jax was 31 this year. Do we think he won't be valuable the next two years? Ryan and Lopez both turn 30 next year. Would it be inconsequential to give up the final year of control for both Lopex and Ryan? I guess it would be inconsequential to trade Prielipp's final year of control for 3 weeks in 2026 if Prielipp is not very good but if he turns out to be really good that's an exceptionally poor value proposition, especially in a year they are highly unlikely to contend.
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I was thinking the same thing. You may recall that last year there was similar chatter they would need to cut certain players because many people were certain that payroll was going down from 2024 levels. Of course, that did not happen.
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So, it's not just me?
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Homegrown, High Picks, and Hard Questions
Major League Ready replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's Jan 15th so there is still time but it sure looks like the kind of "half-measures" we were told Joe Pohlad would not pursue. This looks like an attempt to stay close enough in the standings to keep fans engaged. Unfortunately, the cost to future teams is probably considerable. My guess is that they play the "were keeping Ryan/Lopez and Buxton" card until the deadline when it will be easier to convince fans they need to sell off.- 24 replies
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- byron buxton
- luke keaschall
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Inside the Twins’ Catching Pipeline
Major League Ready replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I have heard members of baseball media say something like team X does not have much in their pipeline for a given position on many occasions. While you may assume it means they have an ample supply, others commonly and correctly in my opinion describe a pipeline to be what a team has coming regardless of how great, poor, or somewhere in between that pipeline happens to be. -
Inside the Twins’ Catching Pipeline
Major League Ready replied to Cory Moen's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
A pipeline is a mechanism. The quality and quantity of the product flowing through that mechanism is an entirely different story. It would make perfect sense to me to say that there is not much in the pipeline, Why is it logical to assume a delivery mechanism is full or is providing high quality. I don't see how that is logical. If it were logical, every team would have a number of high-quality catching prospects in their pipeline. -
If everything goes great it might not be a bad team but the odds of it being a good team are remote. They were bad before the sell-off and they were terrible after the sell-off and they have done very little to replace what they sold-off. Once again, they are going to hope that a bunch of players improve dramatically. The successful organizations that are disadvantaged in terms of revenue have been successful because they manage their assets quite differently.
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I agree there is a good chance several of their prospects, including their SP prospects, could become assets over the next couple of years. The suggestion that this terrible team can open a window of legit contention is very optimistic. What do you suppose the odds are Cleveland, Tampa, or Milwaukee would squander the opportunity to trade for assets that could contribute for 6-7 years in the exact same position. Their track record would suggest it's pretty much certain they would handle this differently. Their track record for putting a good product on the field would suggest the Twin's would be wise to take note but I don't a wise approach going on with this organization. Not of the goal is a real contender. If you want to pretend to be trying to build a true contender, they are doing great!
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What happens to their "window in 2028 when they lose both Ryan and Lopez after 2027? The consensus here and I basically agree, is that Ryan and Lopez are critical cogs. IDK that I would be managing for a one-year window, especially when that year is probably a short year. IMO, they need to amass more long-term/cost-controlled talent if they are going to create a legit Championship window.
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- kaelen culpepper
- pablo lopez
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What are we trying to measure with percentage of payroll? I would assume it's meant to measure the impact of a given player on the team's ability to afford additional personnel. Percentage of salary does not even remotely measure that ability. If payroll goes down to $65M, his percentage of payroll goes to 33%. Did the team's ability to add-on to payroll go down when spending went from $100M to 65M. Of course, not which tells us that measure is inappropriate. The appropriate measure is not percentage of payroll. It's percentage of spending capacity. The exact amount of their capacity can only be estimated or assumed by historical spending. Whatever that amount is, it's significantly more than $100M so Pablo salary is a percentage of whatever we believe that additional amount happens to be.
- 51 replies
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- kaelen culpepper
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I guess there is always a market for a guy like Ryan but it seems like more legit contenders are looking than other years which should make for a good return. It will be interesting to see if Milwaukee gets an impact prospect for Peralta. Of course, Peralta only has 1 year of control so we will have to assess how much more Ryan would be worth. It sure looks like this is fan appeasement and they can then go ahead and trade Ryan at the deadline. If he is having a great year that might work out fine. However, what if he is having a bad year or even worse as you point out, he gets hurt, we could end up with nothing. If we had a reasonable chance, I get it but our odds at the post season are really low. A whole lot of things have to go really well.
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I guess I understand (sort of) why they signed him but that is a frightening reality.
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Apparently, with Vazquez reaching FA, they thought the lineup would be out of character for the Twins if they did not have one of the worst hitters in the league on their roster. It's only Jan 4th but it sure looks like they are pretenders appeasing fans by keeping "their core together and building around it".
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I agree with your post but I would not lump the A's in with the Pirates. They have done a pretty good job with limited resources. The table below has win percentages for all 30 teams over the past 20 seasons. Win % Yankees 0.579 Dodgers 0.567 Cardinals 0.550 Red Sox 0.544 Braves 0.543 Cleveland 0.519 Giants 0.519 Astros 0.515 Phillies 0.515 Oakland 0.513 Angels 0.512 Blue Jays 0.504 Mariners 0.502 Cubs 0.502 Mets 0.501 Brewers 0.500 TWINS 0.500 Tampa 0.496 Rangers 0.491 Dbacks 0.487 Padres 0.481 Nationals 0.481 White Sox 0.480 Reds 0.473 Tigers 0.470 Marlins 0.465 Orioles 0.458 Rockies 0.450 Pirates 0.448 Royals 0.443
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No surprise. I have posted several times that the only one team in the bottom half of revenue (2015 Royals) has won the WS in the past 20 years. I made these posts because occasional people will use that as a valid measure of success which makes little sense given its rarity. This is the present day reality. The question is do we want to take our chances with the type of teams the Brewers have put together.
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I keep hearing the failure is a product of being cheap. However, they have spent more than the other teams in the division and as much than most teams with similar revenue. The conclusion that the primary problem is spending just does not track with the facts. I see the problem as not drafting well enough and not managing their roster and assets like Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa. Those teams are all spending significantly less and getting much better results. Does spending another $30M equate to equivalent results? Building a winner requires periodic rebuilds. Even with considerably more revenue, the Red Sox and cubs just went through rebuilds. The Twins organization appears to be unwilling to do what's necessary. They are using duct tape when they need to build a new foundation. Milwaukee, Cleveland, and Tampa have their ups and downs, but they do not waste their opportunities to build long-term assets by moving short-term assets. If we look at their trade practices and results compared to other modest revenue teams or even all teams it would appear their practices are more effective.
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Can Austin Martin Become Steven Kwan-lite?
Major League Ready replied to stringer bell's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I am not sure which one, but Jenkins will replace one of the corner OFers.. Your preference seems pretty inevitable. Who ends up the 3rd primary OFer after the deadline? That's a lot harder to predict. Who would you bet on? (Erod / Gonzalez / Roden / Larnach / Wallner / Mendez / other) Lots of candidates. That would be a good poll for TD.- 32 replies
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Baseball Reference and FanGraphs have Buxton at the exact same WAR of 9.2 for the last 3 years which is the period of time his salary went to $15M. That's just under $5M/Year which would be pretty good if he were signed as a FA. It's certainly a lot better than Correa who produced 6.5 bWAR and 8.2 fWAR for 2.29X Buxton's salary.
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Actually, those teams have traded away very good established players with short-term control even when they expect to win. Milwaukee won 92 games the year prior to trading Corbin Burnes and 93 they year after trading him. Cleveland traded away Lindor in 2020 which was the Covid season but they had a .588 win percentage. They won 93 games the year they traded away Kluber for Clase. They got Kluber as a prospect by trading Jake Westbrook. So, Westbrook turned into 6 years of Kluber and 6 years of Clase. It's a sacrifice short-term and it has the risk of producing nothing but it also has a very high upside. That's the type of risk modest revenue teams need to embrace.
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My recollection of the practices of successful modest revenue teams is that they don't trade away cost controlled assets unless they have a team that is definitely a contender. Even then, it's rare. If they want to spend another $60M, great. That would be far better than trading away their future. The only option worse than running the status quo out would be to denigrate the future to "go for it with a roster that is not remotely close. They would have to trade away several of their best prospects to enhance this roster anywhere near a serious contender. That's a really good way to insure continued mediocrity or worse.
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How many wins do you think they have if they don't spend $20M on a SS and 2 RPs?
