Major League Ready

I get it now. The plan looks good conceptually. Obviously, you can't get specific with something like this given all the variables. It's time to shake things up and I like that you have made room on the roster in order to invest playing time in potential solutions. Trading Duran is the only move here that is a step back so naturally people are going to flinch, including me. However, I have floated this too because RPs (even great RPs) are highly volatile. They have also brought back considerable talent when similar talent has been traded and we have to inject some impact players.

You have Pablo in dead money but the amount listed is 800K which should be $21.75M

How would trading any or all of the old / low potential prospects make us a contender? We are a very long way from being a serious contender. Getting this team even remotely into contention would require parting with Jenkins / Keashall / Matthews and a few other top prospects which would be monumental stupid. I could see complaining about them not selling but complaining they won't trade away the future to upgrade the current pile of mediocrity makes no sense.

Keaschall has played some OF in the minors but you still have a point. Perhaps they should also consider trading Larnach or Bader as well. They could put Keaschall / Martin or Clemens in the OF. I would guess the specific of this type of plan would come down to which of the existing players can bring an enticing offer.

I think there is a path that keeps our chances alive this year while starting the roster reconstruction. In: Keaschall & Julien or Sabato Out: Kiersey and France. It would be of great benefit to find out of one of Julien or Sabato is viable to fill 1B going forward. I don’t see much downside to playing one of Clemens/Julien or Sabato over France. I would also trade Castro and bring up either Martin or E. Rodroguez. That would make an opening for one of the AA OFers that are currently performing well to move up to AAA. I would trade Paddack if a decent return is available. Brock Stewart or Coulombe would also be on the table but the return would have to be considerable. Picking up a good AA or AAA catching prospect would be attractive.

They have three guys at Wichita who could move up in the not-too-distant future if they think Fedko who turns 26 at the end of the season is still a prospect, Some of it depends on if they trade anyone at the deadline. I could see them sending Fedko to AAA and Martin up to the Twins if Castro or Larnach is traded. Fedko's OPS is .997 since 6/20 and .865 for the year.

I would bet one of Pablo, Ryan or Ober is traded at the 2026 trade deadline or the following winter. All three of their contracts expire at the end of the 2027 season. Replacing 3 of 5 starters for the 2028 season would be very difficult to manage. If healthy, we start next year with Lopez/Ryan/Ober/Matthews and Festa or SWR assuming Ober gets back to normal. One of the three more established SPs will be traded when they have a couple viable replacements. It would help if two of Zebby/Festa/SWR prove to be more than 4/5 type starters.

What percentage of MLB players were once prospects? It's a mathematical certainty that a small percentage of prospects will become MLB players. Nobody here refers to prospects as can't miss. I am not sure why people being hopeful for prospects is an issue given the only way the twins or any other team with average or below average revenue can possibly build a contender is to develop prospects. Complaining that people are encouraged by prospect performance that suggests our organization might outperform those low odds and building a contender makes absolutely no sense.

Martin is hitting .375 with a .477 OBP.

I have never given a "love" on a post until this one. Often, statements like "you just don't trade X, Y or Z are thrown around as if it's undisputable with no supporting evidence. If fans actually looked back on how successful teams were built and look at actually examples as you have here, history will show many instances where trading away an established player was key to accumulating the talent need to contend with modest revenue. The only small/medium market WS winner in recent memory would not have happened with trading away Grienke for Cane and Escobar. How have Tampa, Cleveland and Milwaukee have been by far the most successful teams in the bottom half of revenue? Because these teams are not afraid to rely on the practices you mention. It won't always work but it's a lot more likely to produce a true contender than hoping all of your above average players perform at their absolute peak.

Agree .... Something has to change. They don't have the horses. Will some combination Keaschall, E. Rodriquez, Culpepper, Debarge, GG, Sabato, etc elevate us to a 90+ win team? It's quite possible but I think they need to do something more. Free agency is not a feasible answer. They already spent the money on Correa and Lopez. Plus, they have a lot of arbitration eligible players. I see Duran as a reasonable solution based on what Tanner Scott brought back in trade last year. What will someone pay for 2 1/2 years of Duran? If it's the kind of haul that changes the course of a team it MIGHT just be worth it.

How many trades did they give someone away that produced for a player who performed during the period they would have been under contract for the Twins. The trade for Mahle was pretty bad and the trade for Jorge Lopez was bad but those trades were praised here. Pressly was bad. Rooker got very little love here and most people wanted him gone. They gave away nothing for Ryan, Duran, and Odorizzi. We gave something away for Pablo but that one seems to be in our favor. Sonny Gray was a good exchange. The Polanco deal remains to be seen but they gave away nothing and GG looks good.

We are on the same path. Just discussing nuance at this point. Tampa, Cleveland, and Milwaukee all rely on this type of plan because they have to. As you point out, Correa’s contract means we will also have to rely on filling the upcoming expiring contracts from within. I am not worried about them being able to keep the team together through 2027 when Ryan becomes a free agent. They have $40M coming off this year. That should cover all the arbitration raises for 2026 and 2027. Obviously, prospects are going to need to replace some current players. Let’s start with the OF. I think the odds of replacing Bader and perhaps Larnach by the start of 2027 are very good between Martin / Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez and Rosario and Keaschall could end up in the OF or a Willi Castro role. I pray the starting OF by the halfway point next year is Buxton / Jenkins / Rodriguez. This changes the ratio we have been talking about by at least two (Bader/Larnach) and Wallner could go too. Royce is kind of the linchpin for the IF. It’s hard to say who plays what position but they should be able to put it SS/2B/3B together. Culpepper likely is part of the solution by 2027. 1B and Catcher are iffy. I am pulling hard for Sabato to be our Max Muncy. That would really help the problem you are illustrating here. Julien is not an inspired choice but could be adequate. Keaschall’s athleticism would be under utilized at 1B but that could be the fall-back position or Lewis at 1B. Man do we need Cardenas, Diaw, and /or Olivar to work out although a back-up catcher can be had for a modest sum. Here is my best case (dream) scenario. They develop enough pitching by the end of 2026 to trade Pablo. I love Pablo but the 21.75M could be spent elsewhere and they could get a nice return if the SP prospects really step up. I know it’s a longshot but that would be ideal.

I generally support your position on this topic. I agree when you point the need to bring in a player like Bader is problematic. However, we differ on arbitration players. Arbitration players only account for 22% of payroll. Free agents and extensions like Buxton account for 58%. Players in their arbitration years are generally speaking cost effective. We only have two players that are bad investments. (Correa & Vasquez) Three if you count Dobnak. Correa is by far and away the biggest problem. That's the risk anytime one player represents such a high percentage of payroll. Yet, fans call for this type of signing and many here were insistent upon the Twins signing him, some of them even when the contract was $300M+. Point being many fans see this very different than you and I am in your camp. I got a lot of flak when I pointed out that there are virtually no examples of successful teams paying this percentage of payroll to one player. I would position this as they can easily have half the roster in arbitration years if they minimize the need for free agents.

Great to see Rodriguez back. I sure hope this guy can improve his contract rate. An outfield of Buck, Rodriquez and Jenkins by this time next year would be great. Martin is hitting 377 with a .487 OBP. That would be a great 4th OFer and back-up 2B.

The team with the 2nd best record in the national league stinks?

If it was not clear, I could not agree with you more. If we fail to invest in the future, we can expect more of the same.

Was Keaschall a plus? Could Cardenas outhit Vasquez? That would not take much. Julien or Sabato may or may not outhit France. I would rather they find out in a lost year. Try looking at teams with similar revenue. How did Detroit develop their team? Most of their production (WAR) was developed within.

Imagine if you had to watch 60 games played by a team where every player hit like Vasquez.

It would be far more accurate to say your value is not how the league values. Mike Traut is a far better defender than Vasquez but he would make 1/10 of what he does if he hit like Vasquez.

Lee would still be the primary 2B. Then, they have Keaschall coming back. Clemens can also play 2B.. If two or three of them were out, and the twins needed someone from STP, they would probably prefer to bring back Julien or Martin. Eeles will have to get smoking hot before he jumps to front of the line for 2B.

Upside is a good thing in baseball and a commonly applied concept in roster development. When choosing between players with similar floors, the player with more upside is the wise choice. Your premise of keeping a replacement level player because he is good defensively makes absolutely no sense. You seem to have a hard time with the concept that a player's value is determined by both offense and defense.

Value is determined by the combination of offensive and defensive value. Vasquez provides some positive value defensively, but that value is completely negated by his offensive futility. If they don't believe they have a player with a net value greater than Vasquez, they need to go to the FA market. Nobody said the player would have to come from within and they could get a better player for the amount allocated to Vasquez. BTW .... Cardenas is a good defender that at least has the potential to be a lot better offensively than Vasquez.

He is a replacement level player. Why would you want to Twins to extend this level of futility one year much less two? They need to aim higher.

They could bring up Martin or play Keaschall in the OF when he gets back. That would allow them to give Wallner another reset at AAA. Keaschall, Clemens, and Martin collectively can cover several positions.