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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    They don't have much to spend because they signed Correa, Lopez, and Buxton in previous years. Would you prefer they had not signed them? We also had quite a bit in arbitration increases. The Twins are spending $84M this year on players that were extended or signed as free agents. Also, TV revenue went down by $20M compared to the years they had higher payroll. We could say it's Falvey's fault for signing Correa but it sure seems like most people here were very much in favor of that signing and the idea of trading him this off-season to make payroll room was very unpopular.
  2. Major League Ready
    I hear ya ... but all of this is marginal compared to the top markets. How much did the Dodgers payroll go up this year? These marginal moves are highly unlikely to keep pace with what the top revenue teams spend. Spending another $30M/year is a poor solution to catching teams spending an incremental $150M. The revenue gap has to be addressed in the next CBA and that will get ugly. No-way the players accept a cap. Last time they dug in hard on the amount they wanted the Luxury Tax increased because the big market teams having way more money means $300M+ deals. A model that spreads the money out is feasible but sharing would mean lower revenue teams would have more to spend. Those teams would still be less likely to give out the really giant deals. It would probably mean more money for the middle tier free agents and that has not been the union's focus. At least that's what it looks like.
  3. Major League Ready
    I completely agree and said in my earlier post "unless the see the writing on the wall" and begin to rebuild. Actually, it's probably the prudent move because they might be looking at a prolonged period of being quite bad if they allow those assets to become worthless. I think they are already at the point nobody is taking Machado with his salary being $25M next year and then 7 years at $39M. I sure hope the twins would not be willing to trade away good/cheap young players or even highly regarded prospects for a rental. Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have been far more successful than other modest revenue teams by doing just the opposite, and I am pretty sure Falvey is aware of this history.
  4. Major League Ready
    If any team should be in win now mode it’s the Padres. It’s hard to believe the Padres are willing to trade Cease. They lost Profar and Ha-Seong Kim this year and they will lose Arraez next year. They also have very significant obligations to aging players. Machado will turn 33 this year and he is under contract for the next 9 seasons. He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years. That’s likely to be ugly. Darish will turn 39 this year. He has four years and $77M remaining. Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year. Their two best pitchers by far were Cease and King. They are both free agents next year. This year is likely going to be their best shot for the next several years. They won’t be freeing up a bunch of payroll either. King and Arrez make $22M combined and Machado increases by $8M in 2026 and $22M in 2027. How does trading away your best SP improve your chances of winning? Makes you wonder if they question his health or do they see the writing on the wall and are looking to rebuild.
  5. Major League Ready
    Great post. The pinnacle of bad management is making decisions without being properly informed and there are a lot of unknowns right now.
  6. Major League Ready
    Sounds like he already turned that down with his preferred team, the Mets which makes your point all the more valid.
  7. Major League Ready
    It's not likely to be needed of him because Rodriquez will be the back-up CF before the half-way point of this season.
  8. Major League Ready
    They can trade Paddack to any of the other 28 teams if it's a matter of managing payroll.
  9. Major League Ready
    The $130M is a product of assumptions that are not that reliable. We are currently at $135.4M so we are not $12M over even with that unreliable assumption. Additionally, if they traded for Cease, they could get rid of Paddack and cut another $7.5M.
  10. Major League Ready
    The spending part is good. However, they are still going to be competing against teams with twice as much income and trying to beat those teams at their own game is an exceptionally bad plan. Trading away their future like they did with the Suns would be even more ineffective in MLB vs the NBA. Look back at the Dodgers 20 years ago. They were short-term focused and had very modest success until they hired leadership from a very small market team and held onto their top prospects. Producing good/cheap talent creates payroll space to spend on extensions and free agents.
  11. Major League Ready
    I put this data together specifically to quantify the relative impact of the various methods of acquisition after reading many posts here debating the merit of each strategy. This is not anecdotal. I identified EVERY player that produced at least 1.5 WAR for EVERY team that produced 90 or more wins. The five categories were Drafted / International Draft / Acquired as a Prospect (which is defined as never having produced 1.5 WAR) Trade for Established Player (a player that has produced 1.5 WAR in a season, and Free Agents. Among Cleveland Teams producing 90 or more wins, players acquired as prospects produced 44% of WAR. Established players acquired in trade produced 2.6% of WAR. Note: I missed Carlos Sanatana the 2nd time he was with Cleveland so the number is probably around 4%. If those teams didn't think those players would produce, they were wrong. Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland have all badly outpaced other teams in the bottom half of revenue. Those three teams have done the best job managing assets and that's why they have been better than Chicago and Minnesota.
  12. Major League Ready
    Do you get Dbacks coverage in Arizona with the MLB package?
  13. Major League Ready
    I did in fact miss Rosario. However, let's put this in the context of this discussion which centers around employing a strategy of trading for established players vs trading for prospects. More specifically trading for a high-end player with one year of control. My original post stated that the Guardians were very inclined to follow the opposite strategy. Rosario was part of a trade that sent Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carasco to the Mets. Which strategy would you say was employed in this trade?
  14. Major League Ready
    When I put this information together for all the playoff teams, the point was to quantify the WAR from various acquisition methods. One of those methods is trades but I differentiate trading for prospects and trading for established players given they are very different strategies. The bar I used for established is a player that has produced a 1.5 WAR season which I think of as a relatively low bar. When we speak of acquiring established performers, we are normally talking about someone considerably more established than this bar. Gimenez had one season at 1.2 WAR and Clase produced .4 WAR.
  15. Major League Ready
    Thanks for mentioning Larnach. I actually meant to say I was happy to have Larnach on the team at this point. He looked like pretty darn good the last half of the season. His OPS was 804 after 8/1.
  16. Major League Ready
    I am skeptical he's gets $30M/year. It's also a no go if he's a DH but he seems adequate defensively. He's probably not a fit here. Perhaps the best use of the money would be 1-2 year contracts to fill holes that would allow for future investment in FAs or extensions. I am not putting much emphasis on the OF because I believe Rodriguez will be up before the mid-point of the season and Keascall/Jenkins are also on the horizon. Those two are probably 2026 but it does not make sense to sign long-term contracts with Buxton/Wallner and Larnach here now and Rodriguez/Keashall & Jenkins on the horizon. What would you like to see?
  17. Major League Ready
    Cleveland and Tampa have put far more competitive (90 or more wins) teams on the field than the other teams in the bottom half of revenue. If you look at how Cleveland for example build their rosters, they used the exact opposite approach. They traded short-term assets for long-term assets. They have produced roughly the same amount of WAR from players acquired as prospects as they have through the draft and international signings combined. Not one player that produced more than 1.5 WAR on any of their 90-win teams was acquired in an off-season trade,
  18. Major League Ready
    That's a great question and to be honest I stated it this way because I really not sure. I know the positions would be RH OFer, 1B, and LH RP. Would they spring for Alonso on a 3-year deal? I might spend it all in one place if it were Alonso but that would increase the amount we are spending on the top 3 guys so I would have to acknowledge that's a questionable move.
  19. Major League Ready
    Plipping Lopez is a very interesting Twist. They slightly improve the pitching staff for 2025 and improve the farm system because 3 years of Pablo brings back a lot more than the cost of cease. They also increase payroll capability by roughly $20M with the reductions of Lopez and Vazquez and the addition of Cease. This will be a good move if they spend the $20M wisely.
  20. Major League Ready
    Buxton is a star when he is healthy. Sano never looked like a star. There was always a contact question with him and a work ethic problem. Kepler had very good numbers but not superstar numbers. He might have been slightly disappointing. Larnach never looked like a star once he got past AA. It probably fair to say Kirilloff was a disappointment but the gap in these expectations in general is a product of us as fans being overly optimistic and fired up about our team. Nothing wrong with that. Being a negative nelly does not seem like the best way to enjoy the game or any other pastime.
  21. Major League Ready
    I think them preparing Lewis for 2nd has more to do with the possibility of acquiring a 1B and putting Miranda at 3B. They have quite a few other options for 2B if Lee does not stick, starting with Castro, Julien, and even Martin with Eeles a possibility as well.
  22. Major League Ready
    They will shed $31.4M in payroll next year (or sooner) between, Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Dobnick, and the decrease in Correa’s contract. This combined with new ownership that will hopefully spend a little more and we will be in pretty good shape. The young guys and a few prospects like Rodriquez, Matthews, etc will still need to step up but they should be able to put a good product on the field for the next few years.
  23. Major League Ready
    I saw them play that song live. That drum solo was phenomenal live.
  24. Major League Ready
    I am not sure who you are confusing Edwin Arroyo with but he is a 21 y/o SS and the Red's #3 prospect.
  25. Major League Ready
    I would make that deal for Arroyo in a heartbeat and then spend the salary saved on 1B or a RH hitting OFer.
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