Major League Ready

I have never given a "love" on a post until this one. Often, statements like "you just don't trade X, Y or Z are thrown around as if it's undisputable with no supporting evidence. If fans actually looked back on how successful teams were built and look at actually examples as you have here, history will show many instances where trading away an established player was key to accumulating the talent need to contend with modest revenue. The only small/medium market WS winner in recent memory would not have happened with trading away Grienke for Cane and Escobar. How have Tampa, Cleveland and Milwaukee have been by far the most successful teams in the bottom half of revenue? Because these teams are not afraid to rely on the practices you mention. It won't always work but it's a lot more likely to produce a true contender than hoping all of your above average players perform at their absolute peak.

Agree .... Something has to change. They don't have the horses. Will some combination Keaschall, E. Rodriquez, Culpepper, Debarge, GG, Sabato, etc elevate us to a 90+ win team? It's quite possible but I think they need to do something more. Free agency is not a feasible answer. They already spent the money on Correa and Lopez. Plus, they have a lot of arbitration eligible players. I see Duran as a reasonable solution based on what Tanner Scott brought back in trade last year. What will someone pay for 2 1/2 years of Duran? If it's the kind of haul that changes the course of a team it MIGHT just be worth it.

How many trades did they give someone away that produced for a player who performed during the period they would have been under contract for the Twins. The trade for Mahle was pretty bad and the trade for Jorge Lopez was bad but those trades were praised here. Pressly was bad. Rooker got very little love here and most people wanted him gone. They gave away nothing for Ryan, Duran, and Odorizzi. We gave something away for Pablo but that one seems to be in our favor. Sonny Gray was a good exchange. The Polanco deal remains to be seen but they gave away nothing and GG looks good.

We are on the same path. Just discussing nuance at this point. Tampa, Cleveland, and Milwaukee all rely on this type of plan because they have to. As you point out, Correa’s contract means we will also have to rely on filling the upcoming expiring contracts from within. I am not worried about them being able to keep the team together through 2027 when Ryan becomes a free agent. They have $40M coming off this year. That should cover all the arbitration raises for 2026 and 2027. Obviously, prospects are going to need to replace some current players. Let’s start with the OF. I think the odds of replacing Bader and perhaps Larnach by the start of 2027 are very good between Martin / Jenkins / Rodriguez / Gonzalez and Rosario and Keaschall could end up in the OF or a Willi Castro role. I pray the starting OF by the halfway point next year is Buxton / Jenkins / Rodriguez. This changes the ratio we have been talking about by at least two (Bader/Larnach) and Wallner could go too. Royce is kind of the linchpin for the IF. It’s hard to say who plays what position but they should be able to put it SS/2B/3B together. Culpepper likely is part of the solution by 2027. 1B and Catcher are iffy. I am pulling hard for Sabato to be our Max Muncy. That would really help the problem you are illustrating here. Julien is not an inspired choice but could be adequate. Keaschall’s athleticism would be under utilized at 1B but that could be the fall-back position or Lewis at 1B. Man do we need Cardenas, Diaw, and /or Olivar to work out although a back-up catcher can be had for a modest sum. Here is my best case (dream) scenario. They develop enough pitching by the end of 2026 to trade Pablo. I love Pablo but the 21.75M could be spent elsewhere and they could get a nice return if the SP prospects really step up. I know it’s a longshot but that would be ideal.

I generally support your position on this topic. I agree when you point the need to bring in a player like Bader is problematic. However, we differ on arbitration players. Arbitration players only account for 22% of payroll. Free agents and extensions like Buxton account for 58%. Players in their arbitration years are generally speaking cost effective. We only have two players that are bad investments. (Correa & Vasquez) Three if you count Dobnak. Correa is by far and away the biggest problem. That's the risk anytime one player represents such a high percentage of payroll. Yet, fans call for this type of signing and many here were insistent upon the Twins signing him, some of them even when the contract was $300M+. Point being many fans see this very different than you and I am in your camp. I got a lot of flak when I pointed out that there are virtually no examples of successful teams paying this percentage of payroll to one player. I would position this as they can easily have half the roster in arbitration years if they minimize the need for free agents.

Great to see Rodriguez back. I sure hope this guy can improve his contract rate. An outfield of Buck, Rodriquez and Jenkins by this time next year would be great. Martin is hitting 377 with a .487 OBP. That would be a great 4th OFer and back-up 2B.

The team with the 2nd best record in the national league stinks?

If it was not clear, I could not agree with you more. If we fail to invest in the future, we can expect more of the same.

Was Keaschall a plus? Could Cardenas outhit Vasquez? That would not take much. Julien or Sabato may or may not outhit France. I would rather they find out in a lost year. Try looking at teams with similar revenue. How did Detroit develop their team? Most of their production (WAR) was developed within.

Imagine if you had to watch 60 games played by a team where every player hit like Vasquez.

It would be far more accurate to say your value is not how the league values. Mike Traut is a far better defender than Vasquez but he would make 1/10 of what he does if he hit like Vasquez.

Lee would still be the primary 2B. Then, they have Keaschall coming back. Clemens can also play 2B.. If two or three of them were out, and the twins needed someone from STP, they would probably prefer to bring back Julien or Martin. Eeles will have to get smoking hot before he jumps to front of the line for 2B.

Upside is a good thing in baseball and a commonly applied concept in roster development. When choosing between players with similar floors, the player with more upside is the wise choice. Your premise of keeping a replacement level player because he is good defensively makes absolutely no sense. You seem to have a hard time with the concept that a player's value is determined by both offense and defense.

Value is determined by the combination of offensive and defensive value. Vasquez provides some positive value defensively, but that value is completely negated by his offensive futility. If they don't believe they have a player with a net value greater than Vasquez, they need to go to the FA market. Nobody said the player would have to come from within and they could get a better player for the amount allocated to Vasquez. BTW .... Cardenas is a good defender that at least has the potential to be a lot better offensively than Vasquez.

He is a replacement level player. Why would you want to Twins to extend this level of futility one year much less two? They need to aim higher.

They could bring up Martin or play Keaschall in the OF when he gets back. That would allow them to give Wallner another reset at AAA. Keaschall, Clemens, and Martin collectively can cover several positions.

Dobnak's $3M also comes off and Correa's salary is reduced by $5.833M . That's another almost $9M. I don't see them doing anything in the OF. They have Martin in AAA. They are not going to sign anyone if Jenkins and GG continue to perform at their current level. Rosario might be in that mix as well. Of course, Rodriquez is also a possibility. They have 4 guys with a legit shot to be there by June 1st next year so any change is likely to be from within the organization. Lee is establishing himself, so the INF make-up is a product of a couple things. Does Royce get it together? If yes, Lee goes to 2B. If no, Lee goes to 3B. The big question is do they sign or trade for a 1B. They really need to let France go by the deadline. Clemens and or Keaschall can play 1B and it would really help if they can fit Julien or Sabato on the roster to audition them to fill the role long-term. If they are out of the playoff hunt, Vasquez needs to be released and Cardenas auditioned as Back-up catcher. If they are not convinced after auditioning Cardenas, they can sign a BU Catcher on a 1 year deal.

Olivar still needs further development defensively. He only threw out 7% of runners in 2022. He got to 13% for 2023-24 which just does not cut it at the ML level. He is up to 20% in 2024 so there is hope but Cardenas is a better receiver and throws out over 30% of runners. Cardenas also had a slightly higher OPS at AA as compared to Olivar. Olivar is 2 years younger so he might end up overtaking Cardenas but for right now Cardenas is the only one of the two IMO that could possibly takeover the BU catching role next year.

Some of these guys in Wichita can't get here soon enough. Culpepper's OBP is .406, Jenkins .429 and Gonzalez is .460. BTW .... Austin Martin has a .479 OBP with the Saints. Perhaps there is help on the horizon.

This would be a good way to decimate our chances in a playoff series for this season and the next two. Plus, we have a highly ranked OF prospect in AAA and two in AA. I would much rather make Bader a 2 year offer and keep Ryan. Duran has more upside but at the moment Bader is the better or at least equivalent all-around player. Keeping Ryan and extending Bader would be far better than trading Ryan for Duran.

I suspected Sabato was just on a hot streak to start the year. It sure looks real now. He as obviously made some impactful changes. It sure would be nice if this guy comes out of nowhere to be a quality MLB bat. We are due for some nice surprises. Really liking the GG break-out as well.

The expiring contracts plus Correa's reduction is $42M so they will have the option to replace players like Bader, France and Coulombe via free agency. Realistically, I know your skepticism is very fair. My optimism is basically out of necessity because I whole heartedly agree with your premise here. The odds of them solving the problem in free agency are not good. Which replacement causes you the most concern? 1) Keaschall adequately replaces Castro. 2) Festa replaces Paddack 3) Julien or Sabato replaces France 4) Cardenas replaces Vasquez. 5) Martin/Rodriquez replaces Bader. #5 is the one this gives me the most concern but Rodriquez also has a higher ceiling.

I would assume Kiersey goes back down When Keaschall is ready which should be relatively soon. Martin is the guy earning a spot but I don't see room unless they trade Castro.

I am among the most ardent supporters of the need to develop young/inexpensive players and I have been pointing to the Rays and Guardians as examples for a long time. However, a couple things should be pointed out here. One, most TDers actively speak out against the operating models of these teams. The most repeated themes on this site might be "dumpster diving" and "cheap Pohlads". Tampa does waaay more "dumpster diving" and they spend far less that the twins. Two, there is a point of diminishing returns. Players best years tend to be the years they are arbitration eligible. If the team was able to add talent in a perfectly uniform manner, they would have 13 prearb players with 13 arbitration eligible players or players or extensions and never have the need to add a single free agent. They could average $10M on arbitration players and be within their current spending level. I agree with your basic point here. They have been mediocre in adding young talent and that won't cut it with below average revenue. I do see this ratio improving soon. Paddack will be replaced by Festa / Matthews. France will be replaced by Julien or Sabato. Vasquez might be replaced by a FA but Cardenas has a good shot at that spot given his defense. Bader is 50/50. If they agree to terms with him, one of Larnach or Wallner gets traded. Coulombe might be resigned or replaced by another free agent but we also might see one or two of the prospects being used in multi-inning relief role. The development of Jenkins / Rodriguez / Martin will hopefully force a trade of Larnach or Wallner and further increase the ratio. My bet is the ratio will improve in a month and pretty much stay that way.

The pitchers that demonstrate they have what it takes to be a starter can be stretched out once they reach AAA. Spreading the innings usage out in this way does not burn up young pitchers but still gives them plenty of innings from a developmental standpoint.