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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    As if that never happens here. How many articles did we have about cutting spending and how many times have we and will we here about how the FO blew it this off season? The site is often dominated by constant rehashing of whatever fans don't like. Povich stepping up and Steer playing at an even higher level is not relitigating. It's a new development. The debate has been basically theoretical in terms of if that team was worthy of investment and even more so about the future costs. Well, the future is here. We know exactly what we gained (nothing) and we are starting to understand the costs. We all want the same thing, a team with lots of talent. We want to get over the hump. You better make those investments in the right player at the right time because if you trade away players that will contribute for 6+ years, it's going to make it very difficult to get over that hump. I don't sweat a 1 year $5M player not working out. Not even a little. Hell, the really expensive FAs fail at a high rate. That problem goes away quickly. The current Oriole's team is credited with drafting very well and they have. Eight of the their top contributors were drafted. Seven other top contributors we prospects/waived players acquired before every amassing 1.5 wins in a season. One player (Kimbrell) was acquired in free agency. I realize you and many others hate the message but the methods we love as fans (free agents and trades for proven) succeed far less often than those teams that play that long game if you just bother to look.
  2. Major League Ready
    IDK what changed with Povich but I was listening to an interview on MLB radio with someone from Baltimore's FO before the season started. He singled out Povich among their pitching prospects which caught my attention. I have been following him and we shall see but so far, his prediction looks pretty good.
  3. Major League Ready
    They traded away Cade Povich at the deadline in 22. He has a .83 ERA and a K/9 of 13.71 in 4 starts. I heard very good things about him on MLB radio before the season started. Steer (153 wRC+) and Povich would be important assets right now. Sawyer-Gibson Long also started 4 games at the end of last year for Detroit with a 2.70 ERA but he is hurt. Yennier Cano would be welcome here as well. The majority applauded them investing in that team. I was not one of them. That team was not worthy of investment and we will probably pay for it for several years. Much bigger mistake then signing a couple 1 year players that don't produce.
  4. Major League Ready
    The call here from the majority was for a "playoff caliber" / "front of the rotation" type SP. This organization has never signed the 5+ year type SPs as free agents and it is very rare for any team in the bottom half of revenue. The failure rate and opportunity cost is simply too high. If this is a mistake, it's a mistake every mid/small market is making so it does not make sense to single out the Twins. What if we had signed Yamamoto. That's looking suspect right now. How about Snell. He has sucked! Montgomery ended up being a great deal but that required a crystal ball. What if we had traded away Lee for Burnes. The rest of the team is a mess so that would have been throwing away a player who will contribute for 6+ years. We can point to the affordable guys that are doing well at the moment but that was not the type of player that was called for here. IDK exactly what they were thinking with DeSclafani but I did hear on MLB radio a couple times that he was looking strong before the injury. My guess is that they took a $4M gamble because it's not a lot of money by today's standards and they were getting other value. I think your positioning is very plausible. If they could get decent production from him through May or June there is a decent chance one or two of the prospects will be ready. Best case .... It is possible he stays healthy. There are guys with similar profiles that put together a decent year quite often.
  5. Major League Ready
    Alcala has to stay down for 15 days and it's only been 8 days. Edit: Oops. Someone already answered. Should have read on before responding.
  6. Major League Ready
    I was on the Hoskins train too but he has not been a difference maker either, at least not yet. My point is that you said in an earlier post "the reality that spending money on backups and not starters is bad strategy." This makes no sense if there were no starting positions to fill. Santana and Margot are a very minute portion of the problem. The injuries to Correa and Lewis are the biggest problems. Kepler being out and Buxton / Wallner / Varland stinking are the next tier in terms of impact. Santana and Margot are a 3rd tier in terms of impact along with Castro / Farmer and Vazquez stinking.
  7. Major League Ready
    Which starting position player would you have had them replace with a free agent. You were very adamant about Wallner getting a chance based on what he did last year. Not that they were going to replace Buxton be we could have replaced Buxton with Bellinger. Would Bellinger's wRC+ of 97 had made a difference? We were not replacing Jeffers, Julien, Correa Lewis or Kepler and Kirilloff has been a bright spot. So, which starting position player should they have replaced?
  8. Major League Ready
    I was just fine with entrusting Martin / Larnach / Miranda and others to supply depth. However, when you lose Lewis / Correa / Kepler and Buxton / Wallner / Castro and Vazquez are all hitting very poorly, depth pieces are not going to make up for that that enormous loss in production. It would be nice if those depth pieces were league average but we would still be getting beat on a regular basis. Hopefully, we don't see much of Santana once Kepler is back and Margot only plays against LHP. I am rooting extra hard for Miranda hoping he crushes it and they are forced to cut Santana.
  9. Major League Ready
    Your company gives one group of 15 employees $1M each for a project and they give another group of your peers $2M for the same project. Would you think it was fair if they fired the bottom 15 people based on results without considering budget? Of course not. Money matters and expecting the same results for half the money is not rational. BTW .... They rank 11th in win percentage among all teams. So, to insist an above average outcome is "generational incompetence is an irrational rant.
  10. Major League Ready
    For starters, the sport is doing just fine with record revenue last year. The bigger markets are making a killing. It's getting tougher for the teams with similar revenue. However, the Twins are 4th in win percentage when compared to the bottom 17 teams in terms of revenue since Falvey took over. The only three that have done better are among the lowest spending teams in MLB. WIN % Since 2017 1 Tampa 0.573 2 Brewers 0.555 3 Cleveland 0.551 4 TWINS 0.521 5 Mariners 0.514 6 Blue Jays 0.504 7 Oakland 0.485 8 Dbacks 0.480 9 Padres 0.479 10 Rockies 0.461 11 White Sox 0.456 12 Reds 0.453 13 Marlins 0.434 14 Pirates 0.430 15 Orioles 0.424 16 Tigers 0.406 17 Royals 0.405
  11. Major League Ready
    It's Santana for me. We will give up some defense, but I would rather see Miranda stay and Santana go. That said, Margot would be the next to go. At least it looks like we got a good prospect as part of the Margot deal. Roncon's OPS is now over 1.000.
  12. Major League Ready
    Where are you getting this assessment of his "raw tools". Have you seen him play on Milb TV often or have you seen scouting reports you can share? I have been looking for scouting reports on his ability to stick at catcher and have not found anything. I would guess he will get some attention if he continues to produce an OPS around 1.000. With that attention will come some opinions on his ability to stick behind the plate.
  13. Major League Ready
    I would not emulate Toronto. There have been 164 ninety-two win seasons in MLB since the turn of the century. Toronto has had 2 or them and they have not had a 94+ win season since 1993.
  14. Major League Ready
    The throw should have been on the fly but it did not skip. It bounced pretty high.
  15. Major League Ready
    My guess is that reporters don't ask because the subsection of fans that are curious about how they are handling Raya is a very small minority.
  16. Major League Ready
    It's possible they are working on something(s) between starts and they are managing the overall load.
  17. Major League Ready
    No. I said it's absurd to suggest he would continue to hit at an -56 OPS+. Don't generalize what I wrote toy fit your narrative.
  18. Major League Ready
    I don't really have any idea what to expect from Kepler. My objection was extremely specific. You said they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter and that's a ridiculous statement. The odds of him being that bad in in his next 40 or 60 or 80 or whatever PAs is extremely low if he is no long injured. That's it. End of story. I didn't have any disagreement with anything else you said which is why I did not comment on any other part of what you had to say. Lot of stinking it up right now. What's to disagree with there?
  19. Major League Ready
    I was certain you would not actually address to question being debated which was if they lost a -56 OPS+ hitter when Kepler went down. I did not comment on anything related to your disagreement with the other poster other than your suggestion Kepler was a -56 OPS+ hitter. Let's see if you can actually address that question. Does it make sense to conclude max Kepler would be a -56 OPS+ hitter going forward as you did in a previous post? Edit: You did basically address the question so my error.
  20. Major League Ready
    I didn’t say he should assume he would immediately return to his career norms. I suggested that you were ignoring a couple things when you wrote “ the Twins lost a 103 OPS+ hitter is not accurate. They lost a -56 OPS+ hitter.” The first thing is that it makes no sense to make such a claim with a very tiny sample size. The second is that it is ridiculous to assume a career 103 OPS+ hitter would continue to produce at a -56 level. Therefore, they were not losing a -56 OPS+ hitter. BTW …. Polanco had a wRC+ of 3 through his 1st 20 PAs. It is 136 since those 1st 20 Pas so it’s not at all absurd to suggest Kepler might return to his career norms, especially given he was hurt.
  21. Major League Ready
    No. Their loss is not what he had done in 21 PAS. They are not losing that production. It's already occurred. Their loss is what he would have done going forward. The premise he is a -56 OPS+ hitter based on his most recent 21 PAs is absurd.
  22. Major League Ready
    He was sucking. But to be fair, the sample size was very small and I doubt anyone would bet on him continuing to produce at a level of -56 OPS+. Put another way, if you were betting on his OPS+ the next 50 games he plays, where would you set the +/-? It certainly would not be -56. I suspect if any of us were betting, it would be much closer to the 103 than -56. I would make a very substantial bet at the mid-point between those two numbers.
  23. Major League Ready
    Kirilloff and Miranda.
  24. Major League Ready
    Doc, a lot of the angst over Polanco is that he was not part of a trade that brought in a front of the rotation SP. It’s perfectly understandable that as fans we want the ideal trade to be made. In this case, that’s a top SP with multiple years of control. The problem is that one SP that matches this description was traded this year and it was made by a division rival. Of course, it’s very rare for that type of trade to be made between division rivals. It’s also a very reasonable assumption that many teams would have traded for one of Seattle’s starting pitchers. Yet, none of them were able to get that done. This is where being upset at what was not done becomes rather unreasonable.
  25. Major League Ready
    Apparently, you know what I meant to communicate better than I do myself. First, Polanco is not a 1B. Even if they put him there, Kirilloff is the better option against RHP and Santana better (historically) against LHP. So, he is not playing 1B. His only option is 3B if Lewis / Lee, and Correa are injured at the same time. Of course, that happened but what are the odds? The team is pretty much cooked if that situation persists and keeping Polanco would not come remotely close to making this team a contender.
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