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So, why talk about the problem with the other 8 RH hitters if your only concern is Bader?
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Miranda is actually better against RHP and martin has a 1 percent difference in wRC+. Three of their best hitters (Lewis/Correa/Buxton) are RH and two of them are catchers. Which RH (other than Vazquez) do you want to get rid of or replace with a LH?
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I have always been basically in line with your first paragraph. If you have young guys that can fill the role, give them a chance because there is upside and greater potential long-term benefit. As you know I have compiled the acquisition method of every player on every 90-win team in the bottom half of revenue since the turn of the century. Where free agent impact is concerned, lower priced free agents have contributed at least as much as the $15M+ free agents. Cleveland has only had one team with any impact from free agents in the last decade or so. Their 90+ win teams in 24 / 22 and 19 did not have a free agent that produced 1.5 WAR. You have to go back to 2013 to find any impact from free agents. That year 24.8% of WAR was generated by free agents. Scott Kazmir was getting paid from the Angels and Ryan Raburn got paid $1M. Michael Bourn got paid $7M so somewhat consequential and he produced 1.7 WAR. The highest paid FA was Nick Swisher who produced 2 WAR while the two cheapest free agents produced 2.2 and 2.7. So, they got 6.6 WAR for $8M + league minimum for Kazmir from 3 players and 2 WAR for $11M from Swisher. BTW ... I am assuming league minimum for Kazmir because baseball reference list all of his salary as being paid by the Angels.
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It's not that I don't think you have a point. Sure, they could have just DFAed those players which means they have to be replaced by a deadline trade. The cost is prospect capital and paying the salary for two players if an obviously better player is not waiting in the wings. That's really steep which is why is suspect it's somewhat rare with teams in the bottom half of revenue. It's also not at all uncommon for players to bounce back like Farmer did in the second half last year and Kepler the year before. How different did the first half of last season look for Lewis and Castro. They looked great the first half and sucked the 2nd half. Vazquez had a wRC+ of 26 first half and 99 the 2nd half. Jose Miranda was 133 for the 1st half and 93 the 2nd half. Kyle farmer 67 1st half 115 2nd half and there are many other examples throughout MLB. I could have seen dumping Margot to give Kiersey or Hellman a shot given the long-term upside of investing that playing time but I also understand teams not discarding players like trash.
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Were Gallo, Margot, and Farmer tradeable? I just can't imagine there was any demand for those players but of course that's just my perception.
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You are correct according to MLBTR. 60 day IL
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Did I say the Twins were better? No. I said I would not hold up the Padres as an example of how to run a franchise and their record is very clear. I am evaluating the Padres success relative to the rest of the league and they are among the worst franchises in the league over the last 20 years. They had a decent run lately but their future beyond this year looks very suspect.
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The Padres have had (2) 90 win seasons in the last 20 years. Only three other teams with 2 or less 90-win seasons. Their win loss record for the last 20 years ranks 27th. Their future looks bleak with a poor farm system and aging players on big salaries. Who knows Machado could be the next nelson Cruz but the odds are that contract will hurt them badly for 5-7 years. I would not hold them up as an example of how to run a franchise.
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I had absolutely no doubt that you would deflect.
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I think it’s accurate to say most of us judge success based on making the playoffs and playoff success. The Padres have won one playoff series in the past 15 years, same as the Twins. They built the top rated farm system in MLB after being very bad for a decade. They added players on deals that are extremely likely to be boat anchors for a few years. The Machado deal was heavily weighted on the back-end of the deal. He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years. That’s likely to be ugly. Darish will turn 39 this year. He has four years and $77M remaining. Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year. They lost two important players from last year (Profar and Ha-Seong Kim) Next year, they will lose Cease, King, and Arraez. Their strategy gave them a short window and it sure looks like they are destined for failure or at best mediocrity for a number of years. I would say this is a strike (or two) against their strategy.
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I saw that you were responding to someone and added some detail.
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They don't have much to spend because they signed Correa, Lopez, and Buxton in previous years. Would you prefer they had not signed them? We also had quite a bit in arbitration increases. The Twins are spending $84M this year on players that were extended or signed as free agents. Also, TV revenue went down by $20M compared to the years they had higher payroll. We could say it's Falvey's fault for signing Correa but it sure seems like most people here were very much in favor of that signing and the idea of trading him this off-season to make payroll room was very unpopular.
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I hear ya ... but all of this is marginal compared to the top markets. How much did the Dodgers payroll go up this year? These marginal moves are highly unlikely to keep pace with what the top revenue teams spend. Spending another $30M/year is a poor solution to catching teams spending an incremental $150M. The revenue gap has to be addressed in the next CBA and that will get ugly. No-way the players accept a cap. Last time they dug in hard on the amount they wanted the Luxury Tax increased because the big market teams having way more money means $300M+ deals. A model that spreads the money out is feasible but sharing would mean lower revenue teams would have more to spend. Those teams would still be less likely to give out the really giant deals. It would probably mean more money for the middle tier free agents and that has not been the union's focus. At least that's what it looks like.
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I completely agree and said in my earlier post "unless the see the writing on the wall" and begin to rebuild. Actually, it's probably the prudent move because they might be looking at a prolonged period of being quite bad if they allow those assets to become worthless. I think they are already at the point nobody is taking Machado with his salary being $25M next year and then 7 years at $39M. I sure hope the twins would not be willing to trade away good/cheap young players or even highly regarded prospects for a rental. Cleveland, Oakland, and Tampa have been far more successful than other modest revenue teams by doing just the opposite, and I am pretty sure Falvey is aware of this history.
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If any team should be in win now mode it’s the Padres. It’s hard to believe the Padres are willing to trade Cease. They lost Profar and Ha-Seong Kim this year and they will lose Arraez next year. They also have very significant obligations to aging players. Machado will turn 33 this year and he is under contract for the next 9 seasons. He is only making $17M this year but his salary goes to $25M in 2026 and $39M for the following 7 years. That’s likely to be ugly. Darish will turn 39 this year. He has four years and $77M remaining. Joe Musgrove just turned 32 so he’s not that old but he only produced 1.4 WAR last year. Their two best pitchers by far were Cease and King. They are both free agents next year. This year is likely going to be their best shot for the next several years. They won’t be freeing up a bunch of payroll either. King and Arrez make $22M combined and Machado increases by $8M in 2026 and $22M in 2027. How does trading away your best SP improve your chances of winning? Makes you wonder if they question his health or do they see the writing on the wall and are looking to rebuild.
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The Time for "Getting Creative" Is Upon Us
Major League Ready replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great post. The pinnacle of bad management is making decisions without being properly informed and there are a lot of unknowns right now. -
The Time for "Getting Creative" Is Upon Us
Major League Ready replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Sounds like he already turned that down with his preferred team, the Mets which makes your point all the more valid. -
It's not likely to be needed of him because Rodriquez will be the back-up CF before the half-way point of this season.
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They can trade Paddack to any of the other 28 teams if it's a matter of managing payroll.
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The $130M is a product of assumptions that are not that reliable. We are currently at $135.4M so we are not $12M over even with that unreliable assumption. Additionally, if they traded for Cease, they could get rid of Paddack and cut another $7.5M.
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The spending part is good. However, they are still going to be competing against teams with twice as much income and trying to beat those teams at their own game is an exceptionally bad plan. Trading away their future like they did with the Suns would be even more ineffective in MLB vs the NBA. Look back at the Dodgers 20 years ago. They were short-term focused and had very modest success until they hired leadership from a very small market team and held onto their top prospects. Producing good/cheap talent creates payroll space to spend on extensions and free agents.
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I put this data together specifically to quantify the relative impact of the various methods of acquisition after reading many posts here debating the merit of each strategy. This is not anecdotal. I identified EVERY player that produced at least 1.5 WAR for EVERY team that produced 90 or more wins. The five categories were Drafted / International Draft / Acquired as a Prospect (which is defined as never having produced 1.5 WAR) Trade for Established Player (a player that has produced 1.5 WAR in a season, and Free Agents. Among Cleveland Teams producing 90 or more wins, players acquired as prospects produced 44% of WAR. Established players acquired in trade produced 2.6% of WAR. Note: I missed Carlos Sanatana the 2nd time he was with Cleveland so the number is probably around 4%. If those teams didn't think those players would produce, they were wrong. Cleveland, Tampa, and Oakland have all badly outpaced other teams in the bottom half of revenue. Those three teams have done the best job managing assets and that's why they have been better than Chicago and Minnesota.
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Do you get Dbacks coverage in Arizona with the MLB package?
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I did in fact miss Rosario. However, let's put this in the context of this discussion which centers around employing a strategy of trading for established players vs trading for prospects. More specifically trading for a high-end player with one year of control. My original post stated that the Guardians were very inclined to follow the opposite strategy. Rosario was part of a trade that sent Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carasco to the Mets. Which strategy would you say was employed in this trade?
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When I put this information together for all the playoff teams, the point was to quantify the WAR from various acquisition methods. One of those methods is trades but I differentiate trading for prospects and trading for established players given they are very different strategies. The bar I used for established is a player that has produced a 1.5 WAR season which I think of as a relatively low bar. When we speak of acquiring established performers, we are normally talking about someone considerably more established than this bar. Gimenez had one season at 1.2 WAR and Clase produced .4 WAR.
