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Major League Ready

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Everything posted by Major League Ready

  1. Major League Ready
    Rosario's produced a cumulative fWAR of -1 in 4 seasons. How is that a loss?
  2. Major League Ready
    I agree but it seems to be a bit hypocritical to say what's wrong with this front office keeping this old prospect that is obviously not a major league player and then criticizing them years later when he has some success. While it's coinvent to pull out the "they are the professionals" defense, there are a great many posts where posters assume a superior understanding of what needs to be done. My only point is that we should perhaps see why they were not confident in him given most of us shared their opinion.
  3. Major League Ready
    Someone that follows the twins as closely as you is aware of the Twins history of drafting position players early and college pitchers after round 5. So, why only consider rounds 1-5? Does it matter which round the player is drafted? Of course, the round drafted makes absolutely no difference in terms of value once they get here. Also, it takes no more effort to look at all of the players so why only look at rounds 1-5? Why ignore relief pitchers? There seems to be a consensus on TD that the BP is very important. Seems like an unbiased assessment would at least mention the BP. It also does not make sense to ignore unproven players acquired in trade or any other method. They are equally valuable. One could even argue these other acquisition methods are crucial to lower revenue teams in accumulating enough talent to contend. These other acquisition methods are responsible for 31% of 1.5+ WAR players when considering every 90+ win team in the bottom half of revenue since 2000. Drafted players account for 33%. The most successful teams, the Guardians and Rays, have produced more WAR from trading for prospects than drafting. The Guardians ratio is 26% draft and 44% other and the Rays are 32% draft, 40% other. I think we can all agree that value does not change based on what round they were drafted or if they were acquired via trade, waiver wire, etc. If we are going to assess their ability to acquire and develop talent, we should consider all aspects of acquiring talent. When you look at this particular small subset, it gives the appearance you are choosing data that fits a given narrative.
  4. Major League Ready
    They definitely made a mistake but my recollection is that most posters here were all for getting rid of him. There was a lot of comments that he was a AAAA player, he is too old to be a good prospect, would never be a good MLB player, etc. Is my memory faulty? Are we criticizing them when most people here thought he was a terrible prospect.
  5. Major League Ready
    There is often an assumption here that the key to “getting over the hump” / contend is to trade for established players. It certainly can help but this theory does not align in general with history, at least not for teams in the bottom half of revenue. If we look at playoff teams and the organizations that have made the playoffs most often, trading for established players played a very small role. In the past 20 years, the Guardians have had the most 90 win seasons (9) among teams in the bottom half of revenue. They have acquired a total of 3 established players that contributed 1.5 WAR or more in those 20 seasons. None of them were acquired in off-season deals. They were all acquired at the deadline. Brad Hand: Acquired at the 2018 deadline and was good in Cleveland for 2 ½ years. Andrew Miller: Was acquired at the trade deadline in 2016 and helped the Guardians achieve a 94 win season. He was also good in 2017 but he was hurt and ineffective in 2018. Ubaldo Jiménez: Was bad in 2012 but was quite good in 2013 and Cleveland had 94 wins. We are talking about a contribution of about 14 WAR collectively in (9) 90-win seasons. Now let’s look at players acquired as prospects. The 2024 Guardians had the following players acquired as prospects. Prospects being defined as a player that had never produced 1.5 WAR in a season. Andrés Giménez / Josh Naylor / David Fry / Bo Naylor / Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith. Previous 90+ win teams included the following players acquired as prospects. Amed Rosario / Myles Straw / Mike Clevinger / Trevor Bauer / Yan Gomes / Corey Kluber / Carlos Carrasco. The 96 win 2005 Guardians had the following players that we acquired as prospects. Grady Sizemore (5.6 war) / Travis Hafner (5.3 war) / Coco Crisp (5.2 war) / Cliff Lee (3.8 war) / and Jake Westbrook @ 2.9 war.
  6. Major League Ready
    Milwaukee and Cleveland are interesting examples because they have approached roster building differently. Cleveland seems to have a blueprint where Milwaukee seems to adapt. Cleveland has been far more consistent than Milwaukee but Milwaukee has managed to stay very competitive of late. We will see if they can again adapt after losing Adames and Burnes.
  7. Major League Ready
    I agree with you but Detroit has at least as big a problem. Correra is $10M more per year but Baez is terrible and that money is returning nothing.
  8. Major League Ready
    Last I checked we need two corner OFers. Their presence means the Twins don't need to push Rodriquez. While I hope we see Rodriquez in June, they can still play all 3 in the OF and DH. They could use one of them as trade capital if Rodriquez is what we hope, especially if Jenkins continues to look promising as he moves up, but we are not there yet. It would be great if we eventually produce a surplus.
  9. Major League Ready
    The 4th OFer is not where I would spend whatever payroll room we have. I might very well be overly optimistic but I would give Hellman a shot to start the season and I don't want to block Rodriquez. I would like to see him here June 1. He hits both handed pitching and he's a good defender who can cover CF in Buxton's absence. I know that banking on him is optimistic but I don't see any great danger in this given we are talking about the 4th OFer. Hellman and Kiersey can't be that much worse than someone else acquired as a 4th OFer. The 1st allocation of funds is probably a LH RP. 1st base is a big question mark but it's a question with a few different potential solutions. One of them is Miranda. While not ideal, he has a reasonable floor. Again, it may be too optimistic but having seen some of his hot streaks, it seems like there could be considerable ceiling there to be captured. It's also an easier position to swing a trade to cover. Perhaps they could find a MLB ready 1B in trade for Castro or Paddack although there is a lot of starting pitching available via free agency that probably won't cost much more than Paddack..
  10. Major League Ready
    Will Holland was great in AAA. It was only 41 games so do the twins believe he truly "broke out". If so, he would have the 2nd highest probability next to Raya. He is a very good athlete with the defensive versatility to replace Castro. If the breakout is real, he could be even better. I think he is the type of position player another team would take a chance on. For me it's Raya, Rosario, and Moran or MacLeod. Perhaps both if they intend to dump Tonkin which would leave a couple spots open for additions.
  11. Major League Ready
    Me too. I like our chances of producing more pitching in the next couple years but the scarcest commodity is pitching. If it turns out we really do have so much pitching that we can trade some away, the opportunity will always be there. The one exception I could see is a ML ready or near ready catcher. A successful conversion of Jax to a starter could help position the Twins to trade from pitching depth to fill the catcher hole. I am not worried about 1B. That's a much easier hole to fill. It's also not a hole. It might be a slight weakness with Miranda but the incremental gain is not necessarily all the great.
  12. Major League Ready
    Rodriquez is so key. He has the highest ceiling, and he fits a key need. An OFer that hits LH&RH pitching that can cover CF when Buxton is out. Plenty of bat to be a corner OFer when Buxton is in the lineup. Good defender and has pretty good speed on a team lacking it. I hope they move him up quickly if he comes out of the gates strong in STP. 150 AAA ABs and we might see him at Target Field. Keaschall is another guy that will improve our athleticism but it does not sound like he has an obvious defensive position. I have a feeling he will take over the Castro role minus SS plus 1B. He will be in the lineup nearly every day but at a variety of positions. I have been praying for Prielipp to get it together since they signed him because we have had very few pitching prospects with his upside. Prielipp finding his health and realizing his potential would be enormous for this team. It sure would be nice if we were on the right side of one of these stories and he becomes our Tarik Skubal.
  13. Major League Ready
    If the Mets added a 7th year at $25M he would be gone in a heartbeat.
  14. Major League Ready
    I missed the mark on where you were going with that thought. I interpreted it as they would not do the things Chpettit was saying because of the sale. It made no sense so I should have figured out that was not what you meant. My bad.
  15. Major League Ready
    No. maybe I misunderstood you. I was responding to when you said chpettit's last paragraph was not going to happen because they were not going to invest this year. I may have misunderstood because his last paragraph was about them improving their sales and marketing. You might have meant in the roster. No, I don't think you will see significant spending, especially long-term contracts. I think a new buyer would want to make any such decisions. That same principle might drive trading Correa if they could find a trade partner.
  16. Major League Ready
    I could not disagree more. Making changes that a buyer sees as likely to improve revenue is very helpful in selling a company. Lowering operating cost is more certain to improve bottom line but improving revenue has considerably greater potential upside. We also don't know the whole plan. What if they intend to hire a marketing genius under Falvey. Putting someone in place to lead business operations is not the same skillset as leading the organization. They could also use a marketing consultant to form strategy and then hire someone to execute that strategy. I am with Chpettit on this one. It would be very advantageous for this organization to improve their ability to maximize this market.
  17. Major League Ready
    No. I am definitely listening and have on several occasions written about the advantages of a higher payroll and even posted the results of all teams. History is clear this is true. We also definitely agree that elite free agents don’t take up as much payroll percentage for teams that are spending far more. You have pointed out a mathematical certainty and why the highest revenue teams sign the most expensive players. Here is where we differ. I understand and accept that the ability to spend more on payroll is driven by revenue. Every adult follows this principle every day. That’s not to say that teams should not occasion stretch payroll as far as they can. However, the appropriate way to study how teams in the bottom half of revenue have succeeded is not looking at teams with far more ability to spend. Did you notice the part where I tied this metric to spending capacity? You are hell bent on proving that spending is advantageous. We all agree on this. There is no argument. I am interested in learning how teams with the same or less spending ability have succeeded. That’s why I gathered this information on every 90 win team. Call success whatever you like. It can be WS winners or teams that have gotten to the WS or LCS or playoffs or 95 wins or 90 wins, we can use whatever measure you like use but looking for best practices in teams with $100M or $200M or $300M revenue advantage is conceptually horribly flawed. When you can't accept that revenue drives spending, you're going to be constantly disappointed.
  18. Major League Ready
    I would hope he has learned from last year. He would have to be a blithering idiot to say anything definitive. What he has said apparently is there is room for a move. How does that infer a cap at a level we are probably already above with arbitration increases? At face value that would suggest there is some additional payroll capacity, would it not?
  19. Major League Ready
    I was watching the match when McEnroe melted down and said to the chair umpire "you can't be serious" and I flashed back to that incident when I read Lewis and Jeffers for a guy with a 655 OPS. Lew for Perkins would be grounds to terminate Falvey but both is beyond absurd.
  20. Major League Ready
    If losing Carlos Correa means they are on the same level as the WS, they have no chance of winning the division with him.
  21. Major League Ready
    Using the number of wins/season is not a precise measure? Since 2006 one team (2015 Royals) in the bottom half of revenue has won the world series. If you want to only use 1 team to measure something/anything, go ahead. That would be a horrible methodology, but go right ahead. There have been (57) 90 win teams and (34) 93 win teams. I would choose to look at 34 or 57 teams because it is far more meaningful. However, both sets of data will tell you that the 2015 Royals did not pay a single player 25% of payroll and neither did any of the 57 teams that won 90 games. As a matter of fact, the royals highest paid player (Alex Gordon) made less than 12% of team payroll. I made absolutely no comment about if a team had won the WS with a below average payroll. That’s your focus and it's an entirely different conversation. I have been quite consistent in stating that the ability to spend 150 or 200% of what the Twins spend is advantageous and history would clearly support this conclusion. However, there is very little for teams with such a distinct revenue disadvantage to learn from teams with far greater revenue production. Is the disadvantage revenue or spending. Do you choose to spend less than Carlos Correa on a home or car or does your income dictate it? I look at teams by revenue. Payroll swings occur often and vary widely. When comparing the success of teams, it makes far more sense to compare them by spending capacity. If one team with similar revenue spends a lot more and wins a lot more the results will be telling.
  22. Major League Ready
    Where is the "$130M cap" coming from. I can't imagine the front office failed to learn a lesson last year. I would assume they won't say anything even if they planned a slight uptick in spending because intent does not necessarily become reality.
  23. Major League Ready
    If you look back I think you will find that my statement was less of "if they should" vs what they have actually done. It is a very rare thing when a mid-market team signs a Carlos Correa type free agent. The White Sox biggest contract is Benintendi's contract at 5/$75M. The Guardians is Edwin Encarnación @ 3/$60M. The Royals is Alex Gordon @4/$72M. Of course, the Tigers signed Prince Fielder to a 9/$214M contract which is a shining example of why modest revenue teams don't sign these deals. Of course, many teams have signed bigger deals to extend franchise players. Every Teams Largest Contracts
  24. Major League Ready
    Which is why I expressly stated "Payroll Capacity" vs simply payroll. Would you not agree that they way to measure the viability of paying one player a large portion of the payroll would be to look at every team with X amount of wins or playoff teams and then see if they had a player that reached that threshold based on the team's payroll capacity. Judging payroll capacity is not exact but it would be reasonable to use a percentage of revenue. BTW ... I have stated more than once here that producing cheap talent enables free agent spending or extensions. If I was Falvey, I would have met with the Pohlads when they announced the salary cut and presented them with a list of 90 win teams in the past couple decades. The list would include the percentage paid to the top player and the top 3 players. That list would illustrate that teams are not successful paying one player 25% of payroll capacity and explained to them that this could be done this year but going forward they would likely have to raise payroll keep the roster together as a result of arbitration increases. The net he would have communicated is that payroll will have to go up a bit in the next couple years (26-27) if they want to keep their young core and Correa. Put a different way if they want to retain enough talent to contend. they will likely have to raise payroll back to 2022-23 levels. I say likely because it's possible the young pitching takes a big step up and it's possible Rodriquez, Jenkins and Keaschall change the equation making it feasible to trade Pablo Lopez and a couple of the more expensive arbitration eligible players.
  25. Major League Ready
    The problem is not that it's a trick question. The problem is identifying anything less than winning the WS as a failure. Yes, it's the ultimate goal but nothing is going to make sense if the measure of success can be expected once every 30 years. Of course, that's assuming spending does not influence success. Any analysis of this type requires some assumptions. We can debate if 90 wins or 95 wins is success but nothing is going to make sense if you use a standard rarely achieved. We can certainly look at those teams as additional insight but it does not make sense as a standard of success. I gathered the roster construction and spending for free agents on every 90-win team in the bottom half of revenue for the last 25 years. Actually, I have set-up the data using wins as a variable so I can sort on number of Xwin seasons and overall winning percentage of every team. This provides a very good indication of how various methods of roster construction have succeeded. The teams that produced the most success from free agent spending significantly outproduced the average WAR per dollar spent. This should not be surprising.
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