Richie the Rally Goat

1,000,000% agreed!

I think Falvey’s statement of the payroll situation sounds just like an annual earnings projection for a publicly traded company. The Street expects earnings to be 150M. The company expects earnings to be 145 to 150m, but if you deliver 147, the stock price will tank even though it’s only a 2% miss, so you sand bag it to 135 to 140 and try to spin looking like a hero at 147. they have a revenue deficit now, have a clear line to recover it, but need to manage cash by reducing cost in the event revenue comes in lower than expected. with the number of teams in the same boat, the optimism from Falvey’s side is that there will be a lot of high quality tier 2 free agents and trades available late in the offseason because not everyone will have buttoned up their TV contracts.

I think you are right on the Tony O. The T looks really similar

Maybe he can do it, but he’s 4” shorter than Buck or AK. Being able to stretch that wingspan out is a big advantage. He’s shown more consistent hitting than either Buck or AK, so maybe it would work. he’s one of the most tradeable MLB assets the Twins have, so in my mind he’s already traded. Too soon for that mindset!

Farmer is a prototypical utility infielder. He’s the best fielder at 2B and 3B, and a very good SS, who hits acceptably off the bench. Polanco and Castro dont have the same skills, and were the Twins to trade/DFA Farmer, they’d still need a quality fielding utility infielder. Also, Farmer fetched a 26 year old minor league pitcher with a career 4.33 ERA and had to be added to the 40 to be protected from rule 5. Is the trade return likely to be better than that? Or worse with a Farmer’s higher salary and less control? We can debate how good of a second baseman Polanco and Julien are, but the two of them are both bat-first 2Bs. Neither have shown capability outside of 2B and DH. Polanco should command a much better return than Farmer, and combined with a prospect could return MLB starting pitching. my feeling is that combined with the 40 man requirements and the self imposed budget constraint, Polanco makes the most sense in a trade. edit to add, I don’t want the team to “shed payroll”, but I do want them to get better without emptying the farm. I think Polanco can be “easily” replaced and provide value in trade.

Julien was empirically better than Polanco last year and more available. Polanco’s value to return value in trade diminishes once the season starts and again after the trade deadline. 2 years of relatively cheap control is more valuable than 1.5 or 1.

Do they need depth? Lewis, Polanco, Julien, Farmer, Miranda, Castro, currently on the 40 who all play 3rd and/or 2nd, plus Lee and Martin knockin’ on the door. I concede Miranda is a question, you still have 5 guys for two positions

You keep him for the same reason you trade him. Give value to get value.

I’m starting to lean this way. If Martin, Kiersey or Buxton ends up being the every day CF by May, I’d be ok rolling with Castro to start the season. If Martin and Kiersey arent ready and Buxton is still injured, I’m not sure I want Kiermaier if it takes a 3 year deal to sign him. I was once on the “No such thing as bad one year deal” wagon, until Gallo, but 3 years… lots of bad 3 year deals!

Agreed. The Arraez for Lopez trade almost never happens, but that’s what the Twins would likely want to duplicate

If all you care about is your eye test, and there’s no room for debate, then why post at all? Keep shouting into the void

That’s why you trade him. He’s a great hitter and cheap, and you already have his replacement with 100 games of experience. There’s no better time than now

Ahem

The FO has made mention of trading hitting depth for pitching. Kepler’s 10M contract might have a good return for pitching, moving AK to LF and Wallner to RF.

The murder podcast really resonated with my children

Traded Kepler for minor leaguers Keirmaier 1 year 9 mil Erod 2 years 38m Tried to address both rotation and CF. Going outside the box in trying Buxton at 1b i realistically don’t think Payroll will exceed 140m C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) 1B: Byron Buxton ($15.0M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) CF: Kevin Kiermaier ($9.0M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.0M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP3: Eduardo Rodriguez ($19.0M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP5: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 10.39% under budget

4 starter rotation?

You want this deleted?

Yeah, after I posted, that thought crossed my mind. Realistically it might be Martin out of the chute anyways

Montgomery 4 years $100m DFA Alcala C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M) SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M) LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M) 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M) Utility: Trevor Larnach ($0.77M) Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M) Backup C: Christian Vázquez ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M) SP2: Jordan Montgomery ($25.0M) SP3: Joe Ryan ($0.77M) SP4: Bailey Ober ($0.77M) SP5: Chris Paddack ($2.53M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M) RP: Matt Canterino ($0.77M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.77M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M) Payroll is 5.72% under budget

Hit the hamburger menu in the top right then twins resources

Yes @Brock Beauchampis still involved in TD.

I’m 100% behind Marney! She’s an awesome announcer and a regional legend. Marney or Bust! Better call mama!

You want 35 yo Maeda who’s entire MLB career has been hampered by injuries and sports a 4.0 FIP when healthy, but you don’t want 29 yo Mahle who has been hampered by injuries (and is out for ‘24) and sports a 4.2 FIP? Ok personally i think they have 4 3rd to 4th starters and need a second starter to push the rest of the rotation down a rung

Just a stupid quibble…. But… the guy who caught every inning of the post season is going to be the backup to the guy who got benched for the entire post season? realistically it’ll be a 50/50 split and this is entirely semantic, but dammit, semantics is all we do here!