Chembry

Agreed, I was reiterating how bad they have been.

In the last 10 games, since the start of the Blue Jays series, our bullpen has given up 44 runs and blown a lead in the 6th inning or later 5 times…

I agree with you...All the moves made since the trade deadline, including September call ups have mystified most of us.

Seems like Raya has been pitching out of the bullpen as of late. Do we think that is foreshadowing for 2026 or is that a way to get him more work in 2025? Given his injury history, the Twins propensity to slowly ramp him up, and likely bullpen projection, it would have been nice to get him some MLB experience in 2025 if that is where we are heading in 2026. We really don't need the likes of Davis, Kriske, Tonkin, etc...pitching out of the pen when most likely they aren't returning in 2026 anyway. I know I am preaching to the choir.

I understand your thought, but you do know that league average is .246 right now...If he hits .230 with 35-40HRs that's pretty strong...History says he can because his career avg is .239 Kyle Schwarber isn't hitting .250 and we would love to have him. He is probably going to get $25M/yr this offseason on a shorter term contract. FYI-I am not saying Wallner is Schwarber...all I am saying is standards have changed. I would consider Schwarber to be one of the premier power hitters in all of MLB. As of yesterday he was hitting .245. In 2022 he hit .218 and 2023 he hit .197, so lets lay off on the Wallner hate a little bit. We tend to give up on players too easily.

I don’t want you to misunderstand my point. People get caught up in name recognition. Wallner is under team control through 2029 making league minimum next year. Giancarlo Stanton is making $32M this year and $19M next year. Don’t you think the value Wallner brings, especially if we move him to DH, is worth keeping for a few years while he is making league minimum next year and will reach arbitration in 2027? The answer should be a resounding yes.

I understand that… as I said wallner is having a down year and Stanton is having an up year, but their batting run value is the same. since you brought up RBIs, yes Stanton is out producing in terms of RBIs this year. No question. But, 2023 Wallner out produced Stanton in RBIs per AB (0.19 vs 0.16) and 2024 they produced at the same rate (0.17 per AB). Also basing offensive value based solely on RBIs is unfair. His production could definitely be better with RISP, but that also necessitates the hitters in front of him getting on base as well. I understand quite a few dislike Wallner, including you. I particularly don’t necessarily dislike Wallner, but don’t love him either. But if we compare his stats vs an established MLB DH, they line up very well.

That's exactly the point I am making...Optics are key. We don't watch Stanton every day, but the way ALL fans view their players is "the grass is always greener on the other side"... Sources: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/giancarlo-stanton-519317?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/matt-wallner-670242?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Stanton's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS): Wallner's Batting Run Value (avg/OBP/OPS): 2023: 1 (43rd percentile in MLB) .191/.275/.695 2023: 12 (72nd percentile in MLB) .249/.370/.877 2024: 9 (70th percentile in MLB) .233/.298/.773 2024: 13 (76th percentile in MLB) .259/.372/.895 2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .305/.380/1.027 2025: 17 (84th percentile in MLB) .215/.321/.823 Career 16 seasons: .259/.346/.875 Career 4 seasons: .238/.350/.851 2025 is an up year for Stanton and a down year for Wallner, but they are still producing at the same level of Batting run value. Even their career values are similar. They even strike out at similar rates (2025 K rates: 30.5% for Stanton and 29.3% for Wallner). The only difference is Stanton has been producing for longer. I am not saying Wallner and Stanton should be viewed equally, but stats don't lie. They produce similar results...

Is Giancarlo Stanton a good hitter? Just curious what your thoughts are on him? They have very similar stat lines this year. Since 2023, Wallner has provided a better run value that Giancarlo Stanton...Most probably put Stanton in much higher regard than Wallner, but that just isn't the case.

Hitting .280 is about 35 points above league average. Currently the league average is .246. What you are asking for in this case is a top 30 hitter in MLB for average as well as top 30 for OPS, wRC+, etc... That is the only thing that will make him "good"

I am thinking they try both...Up until Nov 21 deadline to offer arbitration.

sorry double post

I agree with you...That's why I try to explain his stats...Here are a few examples:

I argue these facts all the time on other social media platforms against those who say Wallner should be DFA'd or released by the Twins.

Understood on that. Just didn’t know if he pitched Sunday, Monday, or yesterday

Jax had something like a 8.59 ERA since joining the Rays...that was reported prior to Sunday's game so it may have changed since.

You know what's crazy about that? Looking at statcast, both Wallner and Stanton are almost identical in their batting run values over the last 3 years. The only difference is Stanton has been producing at that level for quite a bit longer.

I don't see the Twins spending FA money on Naylor, I would love it, but just don't see it. His market value is $17M/year according to Spotrac. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/17627/josh-naylor Speculation on my part, but I am guessing he will want a long term contract now that he is 28 and want to take advantage of this season. I just don't think he will want to sign a 1-2 year contract and I don't see the Twins going long term. Maybe they will surprise us. If they sign a FA 1B, I see them signing a Carlos Santana/Wilmer Flores type of guy on a short term deal.

Yes, but he is also 3 years older and played 2 years of college.

I agree with the assessment on Keaschall. I don't see the Twins doing it before Culpepper or Jenkins. If they were going to extend one, it would more than likely be Jenkins. But Scott Boras doesn't like his clients to sign extensions until they reach free agency to maximize their worth. None of the guys I mentioned are represented by Boras. The likelihood of extending Jenkins is almost zero.

I believe the OP is referring to is signing pre-arbitration players to extended contracts. While not a new idea, this is becoming more of trend in recent years. Jackson Merrill, Jackson Churio, Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Colt Keith, Corbin Carroll, Ceddanne Rafaela, Julio Rodriguez, etc...have all been signed to extended contracts into what would be the first years of their unrestricted free agency. All of them had limited or zero MLB service time when extended. Now Basallo is in the same category. Spend a bit more now to save money in the future. Especially if it's constructed like Basallo's, $1M/year 2026 through 2028, $4M in 2029, $7M in 2030, $11M in 2031, $15M in 2032 and 2033, and $18M in 2034. There is a $7M buyout option in 2034. Obviously there is risk to this approach, but if you are confident that the guy is a significant part of the future, it will save money in the long run. Should the Twins do that with any of their young(er) guys? Right now, the only one I would consider is Keaschall, and only do it if the money is right. Once they get to the show, you could consider Culpepper and Jenkins, However, Jenkins is a Boras client and he probably wouldn't allow Jenkins to sign an extension that early in his career. Again, there is risk and you have to be confident that the guys are going to perform and be a part of the future of the organization. Especially when considering the following: Jackson Merrill signed a 9 year $135M extension after his all-star year last year. This year, he is hitting .261 with 9 HR, 51 RBI, and .729 OPS. Kristian Campbell signed a 8 year, $60M extension after 5 days of MLB service time in April 2025. He was sent back down to AAA in June and is still there.

I think most are in agreement that at least one of the current 3 (López/Ryan/Ober) will be traded. Quite frankly, I think Ryan has the best odds there…will bring back a very high return. I would argue against trading Pablo for the reasons I already stated.

You are making assumptions…both López and Ryan are on team friendly contracts. Even keeping both of them, the Twins may face a grievance from MLBPA . The current CBA requires teams to spend 150% of revenue sharing on MLB payroll. With that being said, nobody knows what that true figure is, but suffice to say even the Pohlads can only cut payroll to a certain extent. I would also argue keeping López is worth far more than his salary anyway. He attends other pitchers bullpen sessions for support and mentorship. He acts as a secondary pitching coach. A veteran presence like that in the clubhouse, is invaluable. We do have enough pitching depth, on paper, to trade 1-2 starters, but the Twins have shown this year why you need 8-9 MLB ready starters. If we do trade one, Ryan makes the most sense as he gives you the best return. Personally, I think it’s a wonderful idea to move a starter into a closer role. I have floated the idea of moving Zebby there, but I think he could be a very good starter. Festa would also be very good in that role. His fastball would probably sit in the upper 90’s, touching 100. Couple that with his secondary pitches, it would be extremely valuable as a closer. There a a few AAA guys that could also step up into a high leverage bullpen role, depending on how the Twins view their future based on their injury history and track record in Raya, Prelipp, and Morris. I think Rojas will stay a starter for now. Let’s assume Festa is moved to the closer role, if we don’t move Lopez/Ryan, the rotation sits at: lopez, Ryan, Ober, Zebby…the has Abel, Bradley, SWR, Raya, and Morris all fighting for the #5 spot. If we move Lopez or Ryan, then we have: Lopez/Ryan (#1), Ober, Zebby…then Abel, Bradley, SWR, Raya, and Morris all fighting for the #4 and #5 spot.

My season ticket prices didn't go up...they stayed the same price.

He was support to start for the Saints tomorrow, Dan Hayes reported Abel traveled with the Twins to Chicago. So it looks likely Abel will make a start this weekend. He also reported Bradley could make a start, but no word on whether he is in Chicago.