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Beast

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Everything posted by Beast

  1. Beast
    First, $11 million is pocket change in the MLB world. There is no risk in terms of money here whatsoever. Second, you’re focusing on batting average and walks. He’s got a career OPS around .800 and OPS+ around 110. Gordon and Kepler’s career numbers aren’t going to hit those marks. Gallo is so far beyond Gordon in terms of outfield defense, there’s no comparison. He’s also better than Kepler. If you want to compare careers, he’s a superior player to both of them even with his historically bad year last year. I’ll never understand how so many people here say they don’t want Gallo on the team, while simultaneously clamoring to hand the keys over to Nick Gordon who has almost no extended track record of success at any level of professional baseball. There’s a reason why the FO isn’t handing Gordon the keys to anything other than a bench role. He’s not that good.
  2. Beast
    I’m a fan of the move. If you’re going to be scared of any sort of long-term big money commitment to external free agents (like many fans here seem to be), you have to take fliers like this one if you want to compete. Especially if you’re going to burn your high draft picks with poor evaluations of guys like Sabato, Rooker, Gordon, Cavaco, etc. You can’t have it both ways. If it doesn’t work out, nothing is lost. He’s not blocking anybody. He’s not going to hold this team back from winning anything. If the team stinks with him, they would’ve stunk without him. But. There’s a slim chance he returns to form and helps the team win some games. He’s also immediately one of the better defenders on the team with position flexibility.
  3. Beast
    The prospect write-ups/updates are my favorite part about TD. No other outlet does it better. Man, that Cavaco pick just keeps looking worse. It’s not really a hindsight thing, either. I recall it being very questionable at the time. I know, it’s how the baseball draft works. But, looking back and seeing Corbin Carrol, Gunnar Henderson and others go after him is painful. It’s one thing if there’s somewhat of a consensus about a players draft slot (Nick Gordon, for example). But, when a lot of analysts wonder what the hell you’re doing and it turns out like this…you have to wonder what the hell they were doing. Overall their first round/compensatory draft track record leaves a lot to be desired. Especially if Royce Lewis can’t stay on the field.
  4. Beast
    I’d love to take a flier on this kid. Worse case, the Pohlads burn some pocket change. Best case is another hammer at the back end of the bullpen. This is the way to dredge out a high-end reliever of you don’t want to pay the big bucks for it. I don’t see how waiving the white flag on a guy like this and running out some AAAA schlub is a better option in any way (unless he’s a locker room cancer). If he gets hurt, you still get the schlub.
  5. Beast
    I’m not any more concerned about Fulmer than I am guys Henriquez, Megill, Pagan, Sands, even Lopez. Some of these metrics have to have some sort of predictive value. Is Fulmer’s slider still better than some of the other bums in the roster despite losing an inch? Do we care that Pagan or Megill’s pitches have some increment of more movement when we’ve seen time and time again they stink? Not saying I do or do not believe in Fulmer. But, it’s not like we have a full boat here. I’ll welcome anyone who has shown they can get hitters out in recent history.
  6. Beast
    I think we’re done. May pick up a highly discounted bullpen arm as we near spring training at most. I think Kepler is staying. The chances of us giving up what it would take to get Reynolds is 0%. Even if we were willing to come up with a package the Pirates would take, which I doubt, Reynolds isn’t asking out to get shipped off to an equally inept franchise in terms of playoff track record, and one that won’t give him the monster contract he’s likely looking for (hence the trade request). He wants to go win, and get his big payday instead of getting strung along in low ball arbitration on a loser. The chances of him coming before Correa was nearly 0%. After signing Correa, it’s just as likely we reanimate the corpse of Willie Mays to play LF.
  7. Beast
    He’s a good backup option to have for when Buxton goes on the IL. He’s still at minimum a quality late game defensive replacement for a guy like Gordon or Garlick. He’s still young and has more offensive upside than Taylor. Maybe even a solid trade piece for a bullpen arm. Theres still value there.
  8. Beast
    My preference would probably be Buxton into Correa 2nd. Just give the two best hitters in the team the most ABs. I could be sold on Polanco with Correa and Buxton following.
  9. Beast
    Not sure this is far from the truth. This guy was also likely, and very ironically, very upset about the Arraez trade.
  10. Beast
    Who else was supposed to hit in those 1-4 spots in the order? That roster has stunk since the end of 2019. Nick Gordon? Who, by the way, has the exact same career OPS+ as Kepler while being much worse defensively. But, people act as if he’s a rising star while simultaneously calling for Kepler to be traded or benched. You need to have a better player to replace him. We don’t have one that’s been able to play RF and stay on the field.
  11. Beast
    Since Arraez is a first baseman/DH here, I would argue he’s not really being replaced by someone like Julien. They’re not taking Arraez’s 500 PAs and handing them 1 for 1 to Julien. He might not see any of those ABs. He’s more being replaced by Kirilloff, Gallo, Miranda, and the plethora of other hitters that will get 1B/DH ABs. Hopefully there’s more ABs from Buxton sprinkled in there as well. I feel like that’s lost on people. It’s not an unknown commodity taking over. There’s a pretty good chance that the replacements above end up OPSing higher than Arraez would have.
  12. Beast
    Arraez didn’t really have long ABs. That’s an incorrect perception that’s been developed for one reason or another. Gleeman and Bonnes had some great stats to back this up on their podcast. On average, there are a number of Twins players that see more pitches. Arraez is nearly exactly league average in that department. I believe his average per AB or PA (don’t remember which) is exactly the same as Gilberto Celestino. I haven’t yet heard anyone lament the impact that Celestino in AAA will have on the lineup (they’ll see fewer pitches from the on deck circle). It’s funny how that perception is created. Guys like Sano and Gallo see a ton of pitches. But, people think they’re up there hacking at everything because of the K numbers. It’s actually the opposite. They are just often in 3-2 or 2-2 counts before swinging the bat. (Another nice bit of context/info from Gleeman/Geek). I’ve heard national guys saying this too. How guys like Jazz Chisholm will benefit greatly from seeing all these extra pitches with Arraez in front of them. Staring into the camera saying things are completely made up and false. Fascinating little case study in mis/dis information.
  13. Beast
    We need a RH bat. We could use more guys with his playoff experience. I wouldn’t hate it for those reasons. His overall playoff stats are rather pedestrian. Actually has a negative overall WPA in the playoffs. But, he’s had some good series and big moments. Also, can’t find a substitute for that experience. Winning experience. This roster is very immature in that regard (except Correa).
  14. Beast
    I don’t like that. He’s only good for so many innings a year. When he’s healthy he’s good. I’d rather they not waste them in AAA. None of these guys are really work horses in terms of innings. Some are coming off injury and aren’t going to be tossing 120 pitches over 7 2/3. We’re going to see a lot of 4-5 inning starts early in the year: Use someone as a swing man to come in and throw 3-4 innings. I’d rather turn it over to Ober or Maeda in the 5th than stringing together a couple guys like Pagan before Duran.
  15. Beast
    I see your point, but disagree that he’s our best hitter. The average is nice, sure. But, he had 20 more hits than Carlos Correa over the course of the season, and Correa misses time. When those extra hits are mostly singles with nobody on base, there’s not a ton of value added there. Correa hit like 13-14 more home runs, OPS’d .30 points higher, walked more, and was a full 10 points higher in OPS+. It’s not even close, frankly. A healthy Buxton (I know) and Kirilloff are right up there also. But, yes, I see your point and it’s valid. After hearing some analysis of Lopez by a few different people….it sounds like there’s some upside there. He’s under two years of control, and they threw in a top 100 prospect. You just can’t say know to that for an empty .315 batting average and bad knees.
  16. Beast
    The Twins would’ve been nuts to say no to this deal, IMO. They need to start replenishing the farm system. They added a top 100 prospect. They needed a starting pitcher. They added a cheap, rock solid middle of the rotation guy under team control, with some All Star caliber upside. Could very possibly be our best starter at the end of 2023. Nobody here wants to spend on high-end starting pitchers, this is about as good as it gets in terms of obtaining a solid MLB-ready starter. We have a glut of guys that can play 1st base. Arraez’s value will never be higher, and it’s already extremely limited with zero defense and power. His ability to stay healthy is questionable long-term. This allows them to keep the rotation fresh. Potentially run a 6 man rotation at times if needed, move talented guys to roles in the bullpen (guys like Winder and Ober if they can’t handle big workloads). Paddack and Maeda can be worked back in slowly. There’s also some pretty darn good depth for inevitable injuries. The more I think about it, the more I like it. I give the FO tons of credit for this. Ballsy move, but checks so many boxes. Might be my favorite move they’ve ever made.
  17. Beast
    Devon Smeltzer started 12 games, Cole Sands 3, Aaron Sanchez 3, Chi Chi Gonzalez 2. Only Ryan and Bundy threw more than 120 innings last year. Nobody threw more than 150. That’ll likely happen again. There are plenty of innings to go around.
  18. Beast
    Holy crap. I did not see this coming. I love watching Arraez. But, I don’t trust his body to hold up through a long career. Pretty good return.
  19. Beast
    We desperately need a RH bat, and the ceiling for him is high enough that it’s ridiculous to just flat out say no. That’s clearly a biased take based on some personal dislike for the guy. I’d gladly take him and stash him at AAA and see if he gets on one of his ridiculous hot streaks. He’s a guy that, when locked in at the plate, can carry a team by hitting for power from the right side like nobody else we have on this roster (maybe Buxton and Correa). Maybe those days are gone, who knows, but it’s worth a flier on an incentive-laden minor league deal. At his absolute worst (2020 and 2021), he still OPS’s well above .750. Still OPS+ of 105, 112. Those are well above Gordon’s numbers, who people think is some sort of phenom. He’s never hit for average as low as Gallo did last year (still above .200 at his worst). He’s perfectly capable of slugging around .500. I get some of these guys have defensive value (Gordon’s is ridiculously overrated by most Twins fans, though, probably due to his slender stature giving the impression of a fast guy) - but writing him off as a useless player just reeks of bias. We carry worse players on this roster every year.
  20. Beast
    Do we really have a problem here? Are any of these guys, outside of Buxton when healthy (which isn’t enough), really that good? We’re likely not seeing the same Alex K. we saw before the wrist. Gallo looked useless at the plate last year. Gordon is nothing to write home about as a starter. Who knows what will happen with Larnach, last year was weird and he’s seen his struggles. Kepler hasn’t hit since 2019. The FO and management maybe have some tough decisions. But, it’s not because of a glut of talent. It’s more avoiding the land mine of cutting the wrong one loose.
  21. Beast
    Torres was a 4.1 WAR player last year. He can play SS. His career OPS+ is 114. Gordon’s is 101. Gordon spent 4-5 years in the minors battling to keep his OPS over .700. Torres has numerous years over .800, some over .900, and one over 1.000. Torres has been an All Star twice. He hit 38 home runs a couple years back. He’s registers OPS+ of 122, 128, 103, and 114 in 4 of the last 5 full seasons. Torres had a dWAR if 1.4 last year. Gordon has never posted a positive dWAR. Torres has never had a negative WPA season. Gordon’s career number is 0 and was a negative last year (his “breakout”). Gordon isn’t even on the same planet as Torres in terms of track record and potential. He’s a replacement level bench guy who is lucky to be in the league right now. If he weren’t a top 10 pick with his pedigree (dad and brother) he probably would’ve washed out into an independent league years ago. Nobody is giving anybody anything for Nick Gordon.
  22. Beast
    Nobody is taking Nick Gordon for Pablo Lopez straight up.
  23. Beast
    Hilarious, and not that far off from reality. Change the title to “ball guys” of TD, and add a couple paragraphs about them claiming Nick Gordon is the best OF on the team, and this is no longer fiction.
  24. Beast
    In terms of raw talent, he already is and it’s not even really close (unless I’m forgetting someone). Whether he can remain healthy enough, long enough, is the question. But, with one 5.5 WAR season with a .834 OPS, 140 OPS+, with a 1.1 dWAR, he’s already well on his way. Smalley had one season better than that with the Twins. Gagne, maybe one season better with the Twins. Guzman had one season on par with that in terms of WAR, but largely stunk in terms of WAA (career -6.4). He doesn’t have to do much other than show up and stand at shortstop the next few years.
  25. Beast
    I mean, a career 3.77 FIP with 500+ innings at the age of 26….four of his 5 seasons are 58.2 innings, 111.1 innings, 57.1 innings, and 102.2 innings. Last year 180. Good strikeout numbers. If we’re dealing some our MLB roster chaff, I’m in. Arras’s, I’m in (not happening). I don’t want to give up a top prospect here. This doesn’t strike me as the guy to get us over the playoff hump. Would love to have him, don’t get me wrong. He makes the team better. But, I’d like a little more if we are dipping into Lee, Rodriguez, etc.
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