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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    My apologies - my post above was supposed to read “Santana can hit LH pitching” …..not Castro.
  2. JD-TWINS
    I like trading Jeffers & Duran as a package to get a solid bat back……I’m stuck on one solution (our guys for Boston’s 1B, Casas) but there are probably a dozen deals I’m unaware of around baseball. Jax becomes closer and has opportunity to make more $$ going forward and puts “starting again” behind him. The $9M saved could be used on DeArnauld from Atlanta, FA catcher…… maybe $5.5M. Experienced - has some pop - gotta be a bit better than Jeffers behind the plate. Casalli could probably be signed for $4M or less and also seems better than Jeffers behind the plate but doesn’t have much offensive upside. As every day passes it seems settling with and then packaging Castro with someone in a trade makes a lot of sense…….I vacillate here. If they can’t trade for a 1B - the $$ saved on a Castro trade allows them to resign Santana as a solid platoon guy/pinch hitter/defensive replacement late. Castro can hit LH pitching! …..25% of starts are v. LH pitching……he’d get 80-90% of the pinch hit AB’s they gave Margot last year, he’ll hit .230 in that situation v. Margot’s .000. He’s around if Miranda gets hurt or if they just want better defense with late leads! Miranda is a reverse split guy and would play against RH pitching. Santana is up for Silver Slugger Award - he won the Gold Glove - he lead the Team in HR & RBI………if he did that for another Club, Twin’s fans would clamor to sign him for $5M. Did this in Minnesota and “he’s 38” and it’s all taken for granted.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Interesting math…….the assumption a player is to cover 162 games with no depth (cost of depth) behind him is a bit antiquated. I get the grand $$ value a player provides seems like a fantasy stat! Still, 138 OPS+ is excellent. That number, coupled with over 100 games played, does provide the Team with some significant tangible value. To me, if he played 120 games there is no conversation ……. it would be good if he can get to that level of activity in the line-up……that seems practical - again, an average of 1 guy per franchise plays 150 games in a season.
  4. JD-TWINS
    1) After yesterday lefty relievers available in FA are Hill of Yankees - Chafin of Texas - Coloumbe of Orioles………would go this way v. volatile Chapman at more $$. 2) Trade Jeffers and Duran to Boston for First Baseman Casas……they need to replace Kenley Jansen at the back end. Casas was hurt some in his 2nd year in ‘24 and still put up 120 OPS+. Stretch for Sox to trade him. 3) Take some of the $8.5M saved on the above trade and sign Travis D’Arnaud as a FA from Atlanta. Maybe $6M? Braves refused to spend $8M on option. Everyday 1B - lefty reliever - upgrade defense at Catcher with offensive wash……get a bunch of Braves Catcher/Pitcher background as well, relating to organizational approach. Might need to move Castro to afford lefty reliever? I’d keep him and possibly move him at the deadline if Lee/Keaschall/Lewis are playing OK. He may be needed? I keep Paddack and get him into the Pen & try to make that a strength! Paddack - Alcala - Sands - Henriquez - Varland - Lefty FA OR Headrick - Topa - Stewart - Jax…………Funderburk - Moran - re-sign Blewett …..,maybe couple young guys I’m unaware of………Canterino later in summer if healthy……. Raya in September? I’m rolling with Buxton/Kiersey/Martin as CF depth chart…….for budget sake……maybe Castro as well if he’s still around.
  5. JD-TWINS
    We don’t have a 23 HR - 71 RBI - gold glove 1B in house……..agree on the others. To me, Santana is worth signing to play v. LH starters - pinch hit against LH relievers - play 1B regularly after 7th inning with a lead……it would relieve much of the anxiety of having Miranda there to take the most reps in ‘25.
  6. JD-TWINS
    I agree on the reverse split comment with Miranda. My thinking is play him 80-90% of the time at 1B and sign Santana to bat right handed principally. He is certainly a good late inning defensive replacement - he’d get a bunch of Margot’s RH pinch hitting opportunities - he can play 10-20% of the time v. RH pitching, as needed…..25% of time there are lefty starters. If Miranda gets hurt - the spot is covered. Santana starts 35% of the time and is available often off the bench. Certainly an approach - maybe not ideal but a conservative path forward for ‘25.
  7. JD-TWINS
    Second base is hardly playing either “out of position”……..particularly Lee. Those are the two spots these guys fit into, unless, as I’ve mentioned here before, they move Lewis to 1B & leave Lee at 3B and find out who’s deserving of 2B between Keaschall & Julien. Ideally, the best offensive infield, assuming guys are playing up to expectations by mid-summer is left to right, Lee - Correa - Keaschall - Lewis. Very doubtful they go this route so somebody is getting moved between now and mid-March. (Julien - Miranda - Keaschall - somebody) Am trying to manifest a trade for Boston’s 1B Casas …….. how about Lee & Duran to the Red Sox? We get a more proven bat and everyday first baseman and Boston gets Lee’s flexibility and upside along with a controllable replacement for Kenley Jansen. Am I nuts?
  8. JD-TWINS
    Do not disagree in principle…….. I know you know they gotta “give these guys another chance” ……..hopefully, to be able to trade them!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Agree with the sentiment but gotta say, Lee needs to kick it up a couple notches or he may play himself off the Roster……absolutely pathetic at the plate after first 15 days in MLB.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Jeffers gets tendered…… no choice! His contact rate going up is nice but if 40% of the additional balls put in play are pop ups it’s not really a positive! I’d like to see him choke up all the time, not just after getting to 2 strikes - if he squares the ball better his power numbers will go up - he’s plenty strong enough to do damage up a couple inches on the handle. Can’t move Vazquez - could never be $$ wise as Twins would have to cover 30-50% of his salary on another Team. The current tandem is fine on a good Club. I’m with you on nearly all of this…….My guy to go acquire in Winter of ‘23-‘24 was Devin Williams. He had two years of control left then - He’s around $7.75M/year and only 1 year of control……..I like trading some pieces as you suggest, I just want a solid bat back though. A Carlos Santana type …….only 10 years younger……. I guess I differ on the Duran as a trade piece though……….he’s really good and if his pitch sequencing got a little better he’d be straight up great. That said, Jax is awfully good & could close regularly w/o an issue. Allows salary reduction and potential for some offensive punch coming back if Twins sweeten the pot with Duran. Even trading Duran (and another guy or two) for a bat…….I still think the Pen could be a strength. Don’t see Paddack bringing back much value in trade so he’s in the Pen with Louie - Ronny - Jorge - Cole - Griffin - etc….. (Topa - Stewart - Winder - Headrick - Moran - Funderburk……as health allows) - Blewett…….maybe Raya in Pen by September?
  11. JD-TWINS
    SANTANA in 2024: Struck out less than 20% of AB’s - lead Team in HR. 26 Doubles & 71 RBI. Hit within 4 % points of his career Batting Average. Gold Glove at 1B. (Award doesn’t tip scale) Doesn’t shrink in big moments! Works hard to stay in great shape & post in line-up as needed. Seems Team could use him as RH bat at 1B v. LH pitching……PH v. LH pitching …….. depth at 1B if alternative goes down with injury. My assumption is Miranda will be the guy to hit (excels v. RH pitching/reverse splits) against RH pitching and will also play 1B. If Team pursues a better bat at 1B - then leave Santana alone. To me, he’s too high quality as depth piece to not at least offer him $5M. I love the idea of trading some high value to Red Sox for 1B Casas. Santana could be a nice compliment to him as needed.
  12. JD-TWINS
    ALCALA - Blewett - Duran - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Varland - Winder……..that’s 14 guys to start with in the Pen….,,I don’t see any real weak performers in the group. Moran is a ??? - Funderburk isn’t absolutely reliable - Topa/Stewart/Winder are all ?? regarding health ……….. that leaves 9 guys that seem to all be a pretty solid core. Definitely keep Alcala - he’s not perfect but he’s got great stuff and a very plausible for 6th/7th inning work 2 - sometimes 3 times per week…….,55-60 innings. He did drift a few times after the Texas massacre but overall I thought he had a breakout season.
  13. JD-TWINS
    The Team is up for sale!!! Nobody is trading any of these 5 guys nor any of their other good players……..a for sale sign denotes “status quo” to me. Trade Ryan to get a good hitter - trade Lewis to get a good pitcher…….,it’s futile. They might trade Duran to let Jax close if they can get some offensive punch in return. Am assuming they would need to add another “upside pitcher” combined with Duran to get any real value back. There’s no need (with 8 or more guys of 13 every day guys under 28 years old) to do a soft rebuild. They need to strengthen the list of guys they already have with one solid bat!!! There’s 30 different opportunities via trade or FA for a bat - I like trading for Casas, Boston’s 1B…………..Duran - C. Lewis - Gonzalez or Julien or both to Boston? Buxton - Correa - Larnach - Lewis - Correa - Wallner - Miranda - Jeffers - Kiersey - Vazquez - Lee - Martin or Keaschall - & NEW BAT………. .800 OPS guy that’s done it a bit……not readily available! O’Neill as a FA after Boston could work?
  14. JD-TWINS
    4 players on the 40 man for what Polanco was paid plus $5.5M…..,and two prospects. DeSclafano washed out (calculated risk) - two young guys weren’t expected to do anything in ‘25 - Topa had a lower body injury and is under Team control going forward. Farmer was hurt most of the first 4 months and hence, greatly underperformed in those months prior to August 1st - hit well from there - most everyone else collapsed. If a Team is looking for starter depth, 2B depth, relief depth………I do not understand how the trade with Seattle didn’t make both roster & $$ saving sense? I don’t get the hindsight comment? Polanco played around 180 games total over ‘22-‘23 seasons. He was obviously breaking down physically. If he had better health in ‘24 (was on pace through June) he may have lead the A.L. in strikeouts. I don’t wish Polanco any ill will …… nor do I wish Kepler any ill will ……. time comes to move on……to me, Polanco’s performance in ‘24 proved his decline. If Topa pitches with health, he will be a contributor ……. maybe obvious, but I don’t think Polanco going forward is capable of being anywhere near the guy he was for the Twins.
  15. JD-TWINS
    Absolutely correct!! Unless Polanco struck out 35% at home and 23% on the road, equating to his 29% average, (his previous overall average being 24 plus %) the batting eye theory doesn’t wash. Never heard of some huge disparity for the Team leading A.L. in strikeouts the past couple seasons, home and away - right?? IMO, not popular theory, is Polanco was physically washed before the trade & exemplified the fact throughout the ‘24 season. Gonzalez has a 40% chance of making The Show - just another prospect that MAY or may NOT come to fruition in another couple years. Topa can be a contributor and at $1.3M is hardly too costly for the organization. No way it is sensible to sign Polanco on any kind of one year deal for ‘25.
  16. JD-TWINS
    95% sure some team will sign him for $1.75M or similar…….maybe a “make the 26-man” contract, ranging from $300K to come to Spring Training and some realistic ($1.75M) salary if he makes the team out of Spring Training……certainly nowhere near $5-$6M.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Bednar looked a lot like Emilio Pagan in ‘24 … A LOT! One decent - one bad - two good - one decent - two terrible……much of the year from what I saw over 8-10 viewings of Pirates. No crystal ball from me nor anyone in a GM seat: My “must get one” guys via trade or via FA last offseason for ‘24 were BEDNAR/Pirates - pretty bad year……… J. MONTGOMERY/Arizona - terrible year……..D. WILLIAMS/Brewers - hurt for 4 months and crumbled in Playoff game. Never know who is going to work out. Inside Division Trades seem like a stretch, as you point out. (Crochet/Robert) I’m actually GOOD with our entire staff at this point. Obviously, adding is always cool but to me, we need to be focused on run production help! Staff: Paddack - Blewett - Stewart - Varland - Henriquez - Winder - Funderburk - Topa - Sands - Jax - Duran - Moran for starters in the Pen…………Lopez - Ober - Ryan - SWR - Festa is a good base with Morris - Matthews - Lewis - Raya developing in St. Paul. I’d consider trading Duran & moving Jax to closer’s role. Duran - Julien - a AA pitcher as a package to Boston for Casas, their 1B……that’s my early off-season hope. I like Rooker’s upside but I assume he’s an 8 figure guy at this point …….. the negative isn’t really cost it’s that he clogs the DH spot. With Lewis - Miranda - Buxton on the roster, it seems that DH is already filled - right?
  18. JD-TWINS
    I think the $1.5M is meant as a portion (or should be) of a lefty’s salary. Any updates on Moran’s health?……he is as reliable as Funderburk ……not very. But he is a controllable lefty option. It appears that the gang at TD have completely written off Thielbar - right? What if they offered him the $1.75M or so available for a lefty? Too ineffective & inconsistent to consider?…….probably a YES from me. Can they go 100% right handed? Is Blewett an option for the ‘25 staff? Stewart - Topa - Sands - Alcala - Henriquez - Jax - Winder - Blewett - Duran - Paddack - Varland ……..11 righties that ultimately need to add up to 7 effective guys, with some unknown lefty in last 2 months (worst case)…….Raya in September?
  19. JD-TWINS
    Duran’s numbers are interesting. 9 losses do come from somewhere within his pitching performance……,a few maybe “bad situations” and poor location/mistakes but generally, his SEQUENCING, as you suggest, seemed to be the biggest problem with me. Pitching backwards to make hitters look foolish, just for kicks, isn’t a great approach when one has a 99.5-101Mph fastball……,he continually threw curves & splinkers early in counts & would get behind……then he’d overthrow a fastball out of the zone. Difficult to watch unfold. His stuff is so good that he still had very good peripheral numbers and a decent year overall. Establish fastball and pitch off of it with the other 2 pitches. His stuff is good enough to actually not worry much about patterns but he needs (like most pitchers) to get ahead of hitters on a much higher % basis!
  20. JD-TWINS
    I don’t really have any interest in reviewing the graphs over 9 seasons…….it seems that the author is in agreement that the Bible Awards are based upon real metrics…….Santana was recognized as 3rd across baseball & 1st in the American League. This information seems to have him well above “average” at 1B defensively, without any local bias being involved.
  21. JD-TWINS
    I think he had a really nice season considering the physical ailments. Agree, can’t trade him now - a guy showing these types of improvements needs to get some more leash to potentially be a main cog in the line-up. He already has 20 HR power (15 HR in ‘24) …… just needs to get more plate appearances. 500 AB’s gets him to 22 HR’s and 75 RBI ….. with 25 doubles. Hoping he can stay healthy and get the extra 150 AB’s over ‘24. These numbers assume no improvement (other than health) so it’s not overly optimistic.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Not really sure how a Club sees if a guy can be the 3rd or 4th piece in a trade with no real control of the player before hand? Why would the receiving team show any interest if there’s a real possibility that the player can be signed as a free agent? 2023 results equate to health - early 2024 results equate to health. His 2023 (about 60% of what is considered a full season) .270 BA with a .348 OBP & 116 OPS+ shows a potential norm, with health. I’m not deluded though…..his health is not a very dependable prospect. If they want to trade him, I think they have to pay the arbitration. For the $$ amount, I’d probably pay him and bring him to Spring Training…….assuming his back or whatever the 2024 ailment was, is healed. Seems he would need to comply with some sort of physical.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Agreed - they don’t need to be hidden away “until they get older”. However, big difference between 20-21 to 23….. life experience/maturity and physical maturity in today’s world are a pretty big deal. I see Keaschall up by late June/July …..assuming he’s going to need some time for his arm to get to 100% and for him to trust himself. If he keeps hitting he seems to be the best 2B alternative going forward. Lee got hurried up in ‘23 (he’s older) after being hurt & he was thrilling for about 10 days, then offensively declined throughout the balance of the year. Have enough options at 2B to be able to sift out someone that can actually perform on O & D. Emma has to play 8 weeks without getting hurt - he may get a shot by July 1 if he’s performing - gotta prove with some durability! Jenkins, to me, his absolute best shot at MLB in near-term is September. Am assuming AA through May/June. We’ll see. Middle of ‘26 seems realistic for him, at age 21.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Not looking for common ground necessarily. My point is Prielipp hasn’t pitched much at all over last 2 years and have no idea what he did prior to that. If he’s super fragile but has good stuff (which seems to be the case) he may be helpful out of the Pen. A guy that can’t pitch because he’s broken down, from something that ails his arm, isn’t worth anything.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Festa & Matthews & Lewis all get traded? I’d agree that Ober is the only above average guy at this point but any of the 5 rotation spots being covered (SWR) is a success! The other 6 guys we mentioned have an opportunity to produce at least 2 guys if not more. Might be ‘26 to get past just Festa but they all have some promise.
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