JD-TWINS

I agree that for guessing what can be done, signing available FA’s is the easiest. Predicting trades (for who - giving up who) is extreme guesswork and probably fruitless. I just don’t see the Team signing anyone in FA for any double digit (millions) salary. (Lopez - Buxton - Correa total $73M) Trade for 1B Westburg of Orioles or Casas of Red Sox. Bring in real capable guy at a seriously reduced cost compared to Walker. Trade for a young Catcher that can hit some. My group of trade pieces due to their cost and UPSIDE for trade partners, at the surface, are these guys……….Castro - Jeffers - Matthews - Duran - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Paddack - Julien. I’m sure there may be interesting guys lower than these in the system……will leave that to the imagination. Santana is a “FA reach” for a solution but Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching - he’s reasonable insurance - he could get Margot’s PH attempts from ‘24 and play first base 30-35% of the time……more if there’s an injury. $5.5M & he stays with a contender. If trade emphasis really focuses on the right Catcher………seems if we move Jeffers and $4.7 M salary along with Castro and $6.3M salary to AZ, along with Z. Matthews, we could get back Moreno and take J. Montgomery off their hands….,(AZ pays $11M of his $25M owed). We flip Montgomery and Duran ($3.7M) and Paddack ($7.5M) to O’s or Boston for their first baseman. Get a Catcher and 1B going forward and save $22.2M ……these $ could be used a bunch of ways …… if Westburg is the add from O’s, he makes a few million immediately so the extra $$ are reduced. Seems AZ is motivated to move Montgomery …… Moreno is a key guy for them so they need some real value back …….. I think something can be done there though.

……..8 guys need to be near .900 OPS to make up for their defensive issues?……. If 3-4 of them are over .800 OPS we’d be ecstatic. Just a general comment on the overall…….taking on Wandy Peralta & signing Duvall or Pham sound like good moves in 2022. I don’t see much improvement - none - with this roster. Yandy could be an interesting add - the prospect capital, if measured, is something an organization has to part with to improve. The Catcher move is not exciting if San Diego has given up on the guy.

Eye test - he passes. Just like the large majority of young pitchers, his command could be better in the zone. He could also use some pitch that changes his velocity a bit more…….even his current change-up is 91MPH…..maybe a secondary grip on this to get more variation? Maybe a curveball 8% of the time? He looks determined and pretty unflappable on the mound to me. I like his demeanor and his stuff!

I completely agree on cast-offs/Dobnack. Can’t just wish them onto another club. Seems though, if Team can pay part of other’s salaries to move them, Dobnack may be in this group as well. Maybe team covers $1.25M and sends an A ball prospect? That leaves $1.75M for “other team” to cover. Seems it’s going to be a one way deal though with no real return. That’s OK - they would be giving Dobnack an opportunity and saving “some amount”. I would think that a Julien & Paddack trade could net somebody with more than just a pulse - right? Paddack and somebody else with value. Personally, I think Paddack is a big plus for 75 innings through the year from the Pen. Lefties, IMO, are in place with Funderburk - Moran - Headrick. Seems those 3 guys competing for a spot is a better option than signing a big maybe in his 30’s - there are a handful of those guys out there. I trade Duran & Castro (why non tender and get no value back?) & Jeffers. ($14.7M moved) Those 3 may all go to one team to get a real catcher with youth. Camargo is not a real MLB option. Paddack & Vazquez are in the $135M on the books now. If they can cost share a positive $1M for Dobnack plus the other $14.7m, that’s $15.7M to spend. The 3 guys traded would be replaced by $800K x 3 spots or $2.4M. This now leaves $13.3M to spend……add Tonkin’s release……$14.8M to soend Pen: Varland - Henriquez - Alcala - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Headrick - Funderburk - Moran - Jax…….11 guys that seem to be in the mix. Rotation is static: Lopez - Ryan - Ober - Festa - SWR plus 3-4 guys at AAA. 13 man: Lewis/Miranda - Correa/Lee - Keaschall/Lee - Miranda/Keaschall Vazquez & young Catcher via trade Martin - Kiersey - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner I would trade Matthews - C. Lewis - Henriquez - Julien - Martin………whatever combination needed, to get a guy like Westburg or Tristan Casas to play 1B. Can keep $10M to spend at the deadline (Aug. 1 - Sept. 30) for whatever is needed. ………………….. Could dump Paddack and sign Santana for $5.5………..then take the roughly $18M left and try to sign O’ Neil as an OF bat and move Martin to AAA……..big maybe?

What if they are less active and just trade to get $$$ to spend on a guy? Trade Paddack - trade Castro - Jeffers to a contender for a reasonable young catcher……take those $18M and sign Grichuk - Santana - former Yankee lefty Hill with those $$. Staff is at $46M. 13 Everyday guys at $83M. To me this is a move toward the future with the Catcher along with OF bat improvement & reasonable depth move for 1B and right handed PH with Santana. Solid lefty in Pen. Problem is it’s a playoff team with health & not a very deep run capable club……,,very ‘24 Guardians like - all based on the budget at $130Mish

They need to replace Jansen - Duran is every bit of that at a great $$ reduction. Montgomery & Boston had talks last year, I think he’s a really nice add at $14M with potential long-term signing. Miranda is a .265-.275 hitter with doubles capability to the gaps - maybe a 15 HR guy with the Monster…….3B & 1B compliment to Devers & can DH. Maybe Castro goes as well to help their depth at 2-3 positions? That’s a pretty fair amount of impact for Boston. They have other young bats coming from AAA……..🤞🤞

Jeffers - Henriquez - Matthews to AZ for J. Montgomery (AZ covers $11M) & Moreno (C) …….teams exchange a decent Catcher for a good catcher - take Montgomery off their hands and for 1 year of salary relief they get young relief arm and young, fringe starter to soften the loss of Moreno. Duran - Montgomery - Miranda to Boston for Tristan Casas (1B) Maybe Castro & Julien are added in these moves if needed. Payroll is reduced by Jeffers $4.7M leaving & Duran $3.7M leaving…..Castro probably sweetens one of the trades so that’s another $6.3M saved. Total of $14.7M gain. I keep Paddack in the Pen …… it now costs $16M. Rotation stays at $31.1M. This leaves $83-$88M for 13 guys. C - Moreno & Vazquez 1B - Casas & Keaschall 2B - Lewis & Keaschall 3B - Lee & Lewis SS - Correa & Lee OF - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner - Kiersey DH is a rotating spot for 4-5 guys. 11 guys totaling around $71M This leaves $10-$15M for an upgrade over Grichuck……..or Team spends $6.5M on Grichuck & remaining $3.5-$8.5M on a lefty reliever…….maybe they retain Castro? $130-$135M payroll.

Bought the documentary and watched on Prime this a.m. - best $13 I’ve spent in a long time! Essentially, a revered guy all around baseball - Tim McCarver, Mike Schmidt, Rod Carew, Bob Costas & Pete Rose all had glowing things to say about Kitty. John Stuper (game 6 winner in ‘82 Series), Keith Hernandez, & Ozzie Smith were all ‘82 Teammates and were equally, if not more, affected by Kaat’s personality and guidance as young players. Describes meeting Sandy Koufax prior to Game 2 of ‘65 Series and seeing him pitch for the first time ever, that day. Faced him 3 times in the Series and they became friends over the following decades. Really well done!

Kaat was a childhood favorite. What a great perspective and voice of the game as a color commentator!! Jim Kaat with Bob Costas is an awfully entertaining broadcast! The 1st Championship after 24 years into his career is a big time achievement and sweet Trivia Question……..17 years between World Series appearances is really something as well. I believe he had near 17 gold gloves through his career. Another chunk of trivia is, I believe he’s a 5 handicap or less in golf, from both left and right sides! Look forward to viewing the documentary.

I do not see trading Ryan. Surely, the Team doesn’t need to trade current high end contributors for someone else’s prospects! Team should be in a Win Now mode and not trying to find some former high draft pick that’s having mixed results in the minors with another organization ………why trade for that? Team needs a solid, offensive upside guy at 1B - would be nice to get a real catcher with some youth, while moving Jeffers in a separate deal - a BAT to add to the OF/DH spot. To me, that’s it……never going to have a perfect 26 man roster! Trading Jeffers, if needed, or Duran, if needed, or Castro or Paddack or Matthews …….. whatever needs to be done to address the needs stated above at 1B, OF/DH, & maybe youthful Catcher. Starters are fine and I see Festa as the #4 or #5 Starter…….. Paddack in the Pen to add depth that may be suspect with Stewart & Topa being question marks with health. Paddack - Topa - Varland added to last year’s Pen is a nice upgrade. Matthews - Morris - Lewis - Raya are next 4 guys up after the Top 5 starters. IMO, Kiersey - Martin - Keaschall - Lee - Julien can cover 2B and Utility spot if absolutely necessary and this lets them trade Castro with another piece to get one of the real needs - big BAT!

Depth gives the FO some flexibility if guys can out up numbers at AAA. All of a sudden SWR can be blended in a trade or Matthews or Lewis ………others need arms and if Team can get to 8-9 rostered guys that can start they can get better with trades for real players and not prospects.

Right & right. Trading Lopez is a tough thought to process & why do this if you are trying to sell an Asset for $1.5B ……..devaluing the Club in the short term?? If they traded Lopez to greatly improve the club…….I might get that. Trading him for a prospect and an average reliever doesn’t make much sense. Throwing in Alcala & anyone else makes less sense to me. For the 3rd time today, I like trading Duran & Z. Matthews to Boston for Tristan Casas. If they can save an additional $12M by trading away some salary (Paddack - Castro - Jeffers) & add a bat, that would be great. This deal gets them $3.7M to add to another $12M for this said BAT. Castro - Jeffers - Paddack to AZ for their Catcher, Moreno…..enough from Twins?

NO to Jax starting. Trade Duran with another piece for a bat. Move Jax to closer - he can make more $$ there medium/long term. Everybody’s happy.

Maybe to make the deal’s more $$ palatable to the trade partner in AZ…….if Castro - Jeffers - Z. Matthew’s to Arizona and we get J. Montgomery & Moreno back and AZ covers half of Montgomery’s salary. That leaves $12.5M owed to Montgomery. Then flip Montgomery & include Duran to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas. Twins again get a solid young catcher and a solid young guy at 1B. They save $6.3M + $3M + $3.7M on Castro, Jeffers, & Duran - respectively…….this way they keep Lopez and have $13M to spend towards a bat. ???

Castro - Jeffers - Lopez to Arizona for Moreno (C) & Jordan Montgomery. AZ pays $12M of Montgomery’s salary and AZ owner is rid of him. Twins youthful pitchers take up slack in rotation in ‘26 when Montgomery leaves. New ownership and a new approach for ‘26. Twins shed $31M in salary in this trade. Rotation stays competitive in ‘25. They spend $12.8M on the aquired players. They get a very solid young catcher with team control. Net salary gain to be spent on a real BAT is $18M! Trade Duran and (AA or C. Lewis from AAA) young starter for Tristan Casas at 1B - with Boston. Solid Catcher - Solid 1B - $$ to spend on a new hitter as well. Jax is closer. Paddack/Varland/Alcala/Sands/Topa/Stewart get the ball to Jax.

Ercig’s trade compensation sounds like the above compensation for Bummer, mentioned by old nurse. A trio of ???? for a top end arm is nuts. He’s 30……big deal, former Air For e Academy guy who is in better than great shape. Super disciplined physically & mentally!! He has Team control left. If part of the argument to trade is that his best is behind him and relievers are a dime a dozen, why would Jax draw any interest? His chances at being a starter are about 3%. He’s an elite reliever because he can go max effort for up to 25 pitches per outing…….often under 15 pitches. He has a much better chance of becoming the Twins closer v. becoming a starter.

Very interesting thoughts - some look really good! So, I’m not a huge proponent of trading Lopez but I’m going to yield to that idea since a catcher is of great need………I think AZ is in too much of a win now mode so I have a twist on the trade with D-Backs. I’d do Lopez for Moreno & save another $4M and take Jordan Montgomery off their hands, offering to cover $10M of his salary. They keep Gallen for their playoff push & I think the D-Back’s owner would absolutely say yes but GM may balk? Montgomery would be energized and no longer be in purgatory. I would not sign Martinez at DH since I think that will be a line-up spot of need for Lewis - Miranda - CC - Buxton - Larnach throughout the year. IF Julien can hit a bit, he may get some AB’s there too. Castro as the initial 2B in April is a fallback if Julien & Lee are both inept at the plate and Keaschall isn’t ready yet. I’m hopeful that between these 4 guys 2B output goes up through the year. I keep Topa & Larnach & Paddack and use Castro and Martin & Keirsey for CF depth. I would keep Vazquez. I would hesitate on signing Santana and opt for following trade. Jeffers & Duran (C. Lewis or AA arm if needed) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B. Jax becomes closer and can make desired $$ in years to come and forgets about starting again or at least represses the thought. Lewis - CC - Keaschall by June - Casas. Miranda - Keirsey or Martin - Castro - Lee - Vazquez on bench. Moreno at Catcher 55% of time. Larnach - Buxton - Wallner Pen has: Topa - Sands - Alcala - Varland - Paddack - Henriquez - Stewart - Jax ………Raya in September……..Moran - Headrick - Funderburk - Blewett are all potential depth pieces. Ober - Ryan - Festa - Montgomery - SWR in rotation. Morris & Raya as next guys up. Starting with your $129.5M salary for ‘25 ……I save $3.5M in LF - $4M in rotation - $6.2M on DH I spend $1.3M more on Catcher trading Jeffers and retaining Vazquez - I spend $6.2M more retaining Paddack for relief role. Big trade for Montgomery as well as Casas……this may be all that’s feasible in one off-season? ……..I think this leaves an additional $6.2M to spend as well………Maybe Zebby Matthews to Red Sox instead of Duran & we trade Duran to Brewers for Devin Williams. Milwaukee picks up 2 more years of control……..Twins get Williams and a bridge to the next ownership group…….maintaining a very solid Pen for ‘25!……….My budget may be an extra $1 - $2 M? Upgrade at Catcher per your idea. Upgrade at 1B. Reality, IMO, at DH. Drop-off in rotation talent……maybe not in results? Pen seems good to me…. Topa for Tonkin. OF is status quo with Keirsey/Martin/Castro handling the depth needs.

Can’t imagine that anyone has interest in Paddack as a starter. His numbers and his health combine to huge risk & minimal upside. No real way to get anything positive back for him in trade other than $$ relief. That said, if he only has 75 good innings in his arm per season, put him in the bullpen where he can be aggressive with his approach but inning protected by only throwing 3 innings per week. His stuff plays well over 3-6 guys faced per outing. He isn’t a terribly high cost and he could help elevate the Pen to a weapon for the Team. Alcala - Henriquez - Varland - Sands - PADDACK - Topa - Stewart - Jax - Duran - Moran - Headrick - Funderburk …….. this group of 12 isn’t perfect individually but there are almost certainly 8 guys that combine to be very effective from September through October.

Agreed! Topa - Stewart - Moran are all health question marks……one or two of the 3 should help at times. Paddack - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Duran are potentially 6 very solid performers! Henriquez - Headrick - Funderburk - Blewett are depth contributors in the Pen.

Obviously, I completely agree! I saw the MLB WAR rankings as well - to be fair, it’s got a lot to do with a bunch of the other competitive Teams having FA’s and they don’t count in that analysis since they aren’t currently signed. Bottom line is that you are correct and the existing top 15-20 players the Twins have on the 26 man are very solid for a contender to go deep in the playoffs. Health & the addition of a couple pieces and they would be in good shape!

Mid-season ultimate all-around infield is: Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis To me Royce’s bat projects well as a first baseman……..physically, 1B is the least demanding…….few opportunities for throwing errors…….this solves 1B void and no need to spend here………..if not at 1B, he should play LF 50% of the time along with Larnach. LF is not dangerous physically and it solves the need to “spend on a RH hitting corner OF”. (Santana might be a nice 1 yr sign if they pursue Lewis in OF) CC is locked in at Short. Keaschall seems to be an above average bat with OK skills at 2B…….at least that’s the trajectory. Start the season with Castro starting at 2B and give Keaschall til July 1 to get comfortable throwing again and to get back in form at the plate in St. Paul………Julien proves he can hit in St. Paul prior to getting a look at MLB level. Miranda starts at 3B for most games through mid-May and hopefully, Lee has proven he can hit at a reasonable level…….then turn 3B over to him going forward. Castro - Julien - Miranda can all provide depth as needed ……. even Martin could at 2B a bit, early in the year.

Not being a jerk here but who are the “hitting” catchers at AAA? I am not a big MiLB follower and only know of Camargo in St. Paul. To me, he doesn’t seem to fit that description. Regardless, if he was a REAL catching prospect I would think he would have been chatted up as a path forward for the Team post Vazquez. First I’ve noticed his name. My assumption is if he hits at a higher level (AA & AAA) he’ll be a Corner OF depth guy and the 3rd option at Catcher on an as needed basis for roster flexibility. Frankly, until he posts at Catcher and has hitting success at AA (not just OBP success) I don’t see the Team using up a 40 man spot. Can’t carry him & Camargo on 40 man and I don’t think anyone thinks he’s ready to displace Camargo defensively …… I wish he was ready!!!

I read about 10 comments and the doom & gloom from nearly every angle is always so uplifting. Team wasn’t good even when Correa was in the line-up …….. the big market Teams always fleece the small market Teams …….. the Pohlad’s are cheap …….. Falvey’s an idiot….., wow. The writers job is to write stuff that “may happen” but more importantly will generate reader interest……. SS’s in N.Y., Volpe & Lindor, aren’t in need of being replaced any time soon. Does it make any sense to trade for a guy that hasn’t been able to stay on the field over the last 2 seasons AND pay him $37M/yr.? Why??? ……..oh, it must be so they can stick it to the Twin’s fan base. Pretty sure the Yankees have their hands full focusing on their bullpen and trying to keep Soto! ……… The Mets are losing (potentially) 90 starts between 3 exiting FA starting pitchers …..Alonso is a FA …… they want Soto as well!! Either team trading for a marginal health (potential All-star) guy isn’t a very good way to make themselves better. The biggest thing that seems to be glossed over in the comments is that the Pohlad’s are selling the Club. I have no reason to doubt this is true. Why would they approve to dismantle a team (trade star power) that is a couple guys away from having real success? I know that nobody here buys into this, but I think they might actually spend a bit to try to ensure that the Club has success in ‘25. What’s an extra $17M (random amount) into this year’s payroll to try and maximize a $1.5Bish return on the asset sale? Seems the incoming buyers would want an energized fan base that’s excited about the product on the field and not want a bunch of prospects for CC and have concerns for $20M in the Pohlad’s pocket in the short term.

Santana is one of the Finalists for Silver Slugger at 1B. He lead the Team in HR & RBI. He won a Gold Glove. …….should he be considered for $5-$6M??? He’d be the mirror to Miranda at 1B - Miranda hits RH pitching and Santana hits LH pitching. He’d be an excellent late inning defensive replacement with a lead. He’d be the bat off the bench (instead of Margot) to face LH relievers. Santana will be 39 in ‘25 and Goldschmidt will be 37 in ‘25. ……Santana had 1 more HR & 10 more RBI in ‘24 than Goldschmidt and he won a Gold Glove. Goldschmidt’s last GG was in ‘21…….they are essentially a wash in performance and based on reputation, Goldschmidt will cost 3X what Santana will cost. Lopez was 15-10 (could easily have been 18-8) and had an ERA of 4.08. He threw 180 plus innings for third straight year. He had 198 strikeouts. He had 5 or so bad outings ……..mostly pretty good though. Can’t consider trading the leader of the pitching staff. IMO, Duran is the jewel to be moved with another one or two guys in a package. I honestly like adding Paddack & Varland along with Topa and Stewart back to the Pen. I don’t see getting any value back in a trade of Paddack. A straight salary dump, when he could throw 70 solid innings out of the Pen, doesn’t seem wise.