JD-TWINS

He LEAD the team in HR & RBI …. won Gold Glove. Am nearly positive you wanted him gone last May - then June - then August - “play the young guys annd see how they do….”, etc. If he is/was mediocre in ‘24 the entire Team sucks!!

EXACTLY same reasoning 11 months ago - LEAD TEAM in HR & RBI …… Gold Glove! It’s 2.5 months since the end of last season. How steep is the cliff? It’s 2024 & the guy prides himself on taking care of his body (it’s not Harmon Killebrew - nor Kent Hrbek) …….sure, there’s risk…..ask San Diego about Xander Boegarts …. that was a big risk that’s not really working… I get it. It’s easy to say he’s too old - taking the chance in ‘24 turned out pretty well - right? IMO, his late inning defense - insurance to be available daily as a “just in case” - RH pinch hitting - RH platoon for 25% of starts - all these added are worth $6.75M to me.

So, my first thought is to trade for a YOUNG, somewhat established guy at 1B. Almost like an impossibility! Then it’s move Keaschall or Lewis to 1B to share with Miranda as needed. Miranda is a reverse split guy and could take 20% of games v. RH pitching to provide rest as needed……assuming Team would prefer one of the others in the line-up offensively. Whoever doesn’t play 1B (between Royce & Keaschall) they then play 2B. I like the “maybe even a LF” thought of yours for Lewis! I can’t discount Santana though as a really good RH bat off the bench as PH (replaces Margot in that role) and he can play defense late nearly all the time in games they are competitive in or are ahead late. Affordable insurance as Miranda is oft injured. He adds more value at $6.75M than Paddack at $7.5M just because of the durability factor and the ability to help in many more games. Move one to sign the other?

I’d love to see us move pitching & another tool (Paddack - Duran - Matthews / Miranda) to Red Sox for Tristan Casas at 1B. That being doubtful, I’d consider something like (Paddack or Matthews - Miranda) to Brewers for Rhys Hoskins, as I see this weekend that they may be considering moving him in earnest. However, I don’t think that sticking with Miranda v. RH pitching & signing Santana to face LH pitching isn’t a better option than Hoskins? Don’t lose any trade capital and you avoid Hoskin’s injury issues. Less $$ outlay, considerably. You get the best of Miranda, as a reverse split guy, & the best of Santana v. lefties. Santana can take the PH opportunities that Margot had in ‘24 v. lefties (big upgrade). Santana can also “close games out defensively” 135 games per year. Also, he’s a gamer and he posts as needed every year….. he takes great care of himself! Great insurance for Miranda at 1B (potential injuries) and allows Miranda to play 3B as needed for depth. I think it makes sense to sign Carlos for a $6.33M offer and negotiate from there - it allows him some continuity in a familiar Clubhouse on a team with upside. .…………….. To me, if they NEED to save and not spend anywhere, move Lewis or Keaschall to 1B &/or 2B. Keaschall can hit and can’t throw early on - 1B!! Lewis profiles offensively as a 1B if Twins can get him to move there. CC - with Miranda & Lee at 3B. Castro behind all 3 glove spots. Nice infield for next 4-5 years. No guarantees with any of these guys nor anyone else in MLB, offensively (see Xander Boegarts) but I have NO delusions that Julien is just going to “work out” at 2B for the Twins…..he cannot be a central thought as a solution/plan!

Not scared - owners & MLB have to approve - unless people quit going to games after the sale it doesn’t seem very likely. Baseball is pretty traditional - Sox moving doesn’t seem very likely either. Stadium leases or some commitments in place? I live in Cincinnati & am not in the know on either Club’s commitments to the local Cities.

If they pay the highest luxury tax in the NBA in ‘23/‘24 it seems that payroll is NOT something they would default to “hold the line” on, IMO. For any NEW potential ownership group, seems to me that “right sizing” 2024 Twins payroll, at the sacrifice of Winning, would bring a lower vision as to how the Club’s value is perceived. The “ask” is around $1.4-$1.5B ……. $23M (or whatever) to get the Twins back closer to 14-16th in spending in MLB should be worthwhile for the Pohlad’s in ‘24. Selling a playoff bound Team v. not will add value greater than $10-$30M, IMO.

Agreed. Investment firm is in Chicago - no more Teams moving there………. no more Teams moving to Phoenix/Tucson area either. Nobody seems concerned A-Rod is moving the Timberwolves to his back yard - right?

Assumption would be if Justin is at $4.9 - $5.4B …….. brother Mat must be worth $1.5B on the light side - guessing, but seems to make sense. Should be able to find $25-$35M on top of current $130M budget to help get a few guys signed long term (extensions) and maybe another guy or two off FA market…..gotta be patient I guess.

So, being skeptical of Royce is understandable. Personally, I think a bunch of his issues are between the ears….plenty of talent! Injury problems are a separate deal & are a real problem! Comparing a Number One overall pick with Badoo seems a bit silly. Royce had a pretty bad 2 months to finish ‘24 but he had pieces of pretty good 3-4 months pieced together through a couple seasons prior. RpR hasn’t seen a Twin he liked, unless they have Gold Glove chance, in 2 years ….,,so his opinion on Royce not being able to play LF after the Team initially targeted him in CF (prior to knee catastrophe) isn’t necessarily the gospel.

W/o seeing their books it’s pretty difficult! Seeing real attendance - average ticket prices - TV revenue estimation - concessions estimate - merch estimate - $$ for advertising and any suites they may have……..add it up. No choice but to estimate. The actual spend on players and a close estimate on coaching are fairly black & white. I’ve seen these types of numbers a dozen times over the past 30 months on TD. I have no idea how to estimate nor what the costs may be for the scouting & minor league affiliates?? They went from 15-17th in spend over a few years, down to 21-23rd in ‘24. Going from $154M in ‘23 back to the ‘21 spend, between $125-$130M for ‘24, is a big shift in approach. MLB gave them and some other Teams $8-$10M to offset TV issues (my recollection) in ‘24. In reality, they spent enough last year and either guys were hurt or guys crumbled down the stretch. They were 17 games over .500 on August 10th & they ended up 2 games over. That’s not ownership nor the Manager ….,players have to perform…..there was enough talent to equal or surpass ‘23 results.

Have at it…….the spreadsheet. I’ve seen numerous times the revenues of the Clubs (1-30) - market sizes of Clubs - % spending as a piece of revenues. Have either seen it here in parts and then maybe looked on my own??? Anyway, it’s no mystery where the Twins nor other Team’s stand relative to payroll spending. I think that non-TV & gate revenues are probably harder to capture accurately if the Team doesn’t share - doubt any of them do since they are all private concerns. Pretty tough to know ad dollars flowing in or merch sales to the Dodgers or others.

Pitchers - pitching depth counts as well. I agree, it’s not elite but Emma & Walker are two pretty solid position guys on the come……Keaschall’s bat, etc.

Completely agree…….I would say though, the instability you describe in Minnesota’s organization is prevalent in probably 25 or more other organizations. All unstable due to the whims of any local ownership group.

Can’t see the Sox trading both solid MLB players that are young and under control…..2 of there 3 best offensive weapons. Why? Devers to 1B and trade Casas ……I could see that. Can’t imagine they trade their star in Duran.

Run production - offensive capabilities? We have 2-3 guys that can play 3B & Correa is our best option for another 2-3 years at SS? If such a great value, why would the Cardinals want to move him?

It seems to me it’s difficult to get value back for many of our guys on the roster in trades if they are considered only to be traded as an individual. ……….Paddack - Vazquez - Matthews for a young Catcher that’s been in MLB a year plus……as an example. ……….Correa - Miranda - Paddack for T. Casas of Boston? What do you think about offering Vazquez a “refreshed” contract for ‘25 & ‘26? Add $5M and spread the $15M over 2 years. Can then focus on developing a Catcher internally over next 2 summers. Crazy idea??……. another option is to save $2.5M this year and maybe trade him in ‘26 more easily?

His WHIP for RH batters is 1.82…….he has success v. RH batters because he walks an inordinate amount (15 BB in 22 innings) and that inflates his OBP v. RH batters to .407. Also, a .284 batting average isn’t very effective coupled with the walks! Don’t get the “effectiveness v. both sides” point made?

How about Correa - Paddack - Duran - Jeffers………..Devers moves to 1B as you theorize above and the Twins get Casas & young Catcher back from Boston. Twins get answers at 1B & Catcher for future and Jeffers is affordable compliment in Boston and there is no void at Catcher. Duran takes Jansen’s spot and is affordable - moves Chapman to set-up roll, which fits him. They get a #5-#6 starter in Paddack. CC at shortstop…….they keep their young SS as well. Twins save $36M + $7.5M + $3.7M + $4.7M ……$51.9M (their cost to just have Soto, they can afford it) Twins could maybe extend a couple guys early……if they are &10M over budget now, they have $42M to spend. Maybe go after T. Scott for 3 years - Santander for 3 years. Lewis - Lee - Keaschall - Casas (Miranda/Castro) Larnach - Buxton - Wallner - Santander - Kiersey Vazquez - new Catcher from Sox

Didn’t the Mets reject him prior to ‘23?? Can’t see how he got healthy in their eyes.

My comment was to the guy saying he may want to hide from National Media in Minnesota and not play for the Yankees - I was pointing out that he was in the midst of being in a couple big markets previously.

‘23 Correa played hurt for long stretches …., contributing to the 1.5 WAR ……..you’re right, no guarantees of health going forward for him. No real health guarantees with anyone in the game though. It may make sense for the Twins to consider a trade of Correa and another “salary shed guy” (1 of 4 or 5 possible guys) to get back a Catcher and a First Baseman. This could be a hedge against injuries (Buxton - CC - Lewis) and missed games by this trio. Say they include Vazquez with CC and negotiate to eat $4M. Paddack goes in this trade or in another. Those 3 get them $49.5M of freed salary …….at least $43M to spend within the current budget if fixed at $130M……. Roster at a minimum: Lewis/Miranda - Lee/Castro - Castro/Keaschall - New 1B/Miranda as infield. FA - Tanner Scott for 3 yrs at $17.5M FA - Santander for 3 yrs at $24M Should be able to bring back a new 1B & a Catcher in Correa/Vazquez trade. Jeffers and new guy catching. Infield above, 2 catchers with Larnach - Buxton - Wallner - Kiersey - Santander DH of Santander/Larnach/Lewis/Buxton/Miranda Better offense at Catcher - better offense at 1B - big power addition - absolute lights out back end of the Pen!! I just started to really like Correa but this makes sense.

He was ready to sign with The Mets & then The Giants ……..seems he’s good with wherever he’ll be paid. A lot cheaper to live well in the Twins for the next 5 years……better Family situation as well.

Not a bad overview - interesting - I do have some emotionally charged differences of opinion on a few things: Why would anyone trade Larnach to sign Jesse Winker??? He runs faster? Larnach 15 HR in 355 AB’s and a 116 OPS+ Winker 14 HR in 430 AB’s and a 118 OPS+ …….but Winker hit .199 in ‘23 & .219 in ‘22. His OPS+ in last 2 months with Mets was 96. I live in Cinti and watched him be on a heater for 7-8 weeks a season and greatly disappoint the other 2/3 of the season……He costs $1.5M more than Larnach (75% more). Sorry, can’t imagine Team entertains adding Winker in any situation. I can’t get behind Camargo as an option at MLB - he is hardly is acceptable in St Paul Profar had a -1.3 WAR in ‘23. At 32 years old in ‘25, he seems really risky for a 3 year deal as nearly half of his career WAR came in ‘24. He hit 24 HR last year and had 80 HR over the previous 8 years. Maybe he’s “figured it out”? I keep Larnach and pass on the additional $13M that Profar would get, at a minimum. Jax, to me, should remain in the Pen and this would allow him to close games and Team could then trade Duran for position player help and to potentially reduce payroll more……….Festa stays in rotation along with SWR as I can’t imagine Sasaki coming to Twin Cities.

IF the budget is “firm” for ‘25 until franchise can be rescued by another ownership group, they need to trade guys. These guys can be coupled with Duran - Matthews - Henriquez - Julien, whatever is needed to get the proper MLB ready return. Catcher - Catcher or a Catcher that can hit and is young. A potential affordable move instead of signing and paying a potential mediocre depth OF (Grichuk), use Kiersey & Martinez as the depth to start the year. To solve 2 issues with one affordable FA signing, Carlos Santana to Twins for $6.25M. He’s gotta get a raise as his ‘24 upside is obvious to everyone else in the game. Miranda is a reverse split guy and could play 1B most of the time v. RH pitching, shielding Santana from numerous LH AB’s. Santana could be a great late inning defender (regularly) at 1B in tight games or with a lead. Santana could also get most/many of the RH pinch hitting opportunities that went to Margot last year……as a Switch hitter, the defense countering with RH pitcher will be reduced greatly. Santana can start at 1B v. LH pitching and can play long stretches if Miranda gets nicked up. Twins take advantage of his capabilities as a RH hitter and elite defender. Great “fit” in Clubhouse as well!

A veteran Catcher, along with an All-star utility player and a young arm could net a MLB, experienced young Catcher. (Vazquez - Castro - Matthews)………guys leaving can be interchanged but the result (Catcher) coming this way has to be more than just a “prospect”!! I do not believe that $130M is a ceiling that is in place other than as a “worst case scenario” for fan’s sake. I don’t think it’s open ended, but I am in the camp that believes the Team has much more Total Value in a sale if they are currently very competitive! So, I believe that $130 - $143M is in play (still a low $$ number). The Team spent $154M in ‘23………can’t cut your nose off and put the Team up for sale and expect best return. From me for about the 5th time in this off-season, the PEN is fine with the current budget constraints in play. Not SURE Chafin is any better than anyone we already have in system. $$ need to be spent on filling 1B void and need for power/performance upgrade and possibly some depth in OF, but that is lowest priority. Catcher in trade - 1B -OF (2 of 3) can be solved via trade. PEN: Headrick - Funderburk - Moran - Alcala - Sands - Blewett - Henriquez - Tonkin - Varland - Paddack - Jax - Duran……..probably a couple I’m missing……..Canterino or Prielipp or Raya by late August are all possible (not likely but possible). Obviously, a couple of these guys could be traded to help with other roster objectives……to me, Duran in a package could be pretty attractive for a trade partner.