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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing. He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings). Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.
  2. JD-TWINS
    If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited. I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening! Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.
  3. JD-TWINS
    IMO, Jax throwing 71 innings of .87WHIP baseball is a tremendous value & should not be blended into the rest of the relief corp - he is the backbone of the Bullpen. The risks listed are all very real & probable that one of them becomes reality. Innings limitations at some point and zero gas left in the tank at some point are a very likely scenario even if he’s having great success as a starter. It’s my assumption that he wants to start to be worth more $$. I would try to remedy that by trading Duran and another piece(s) to get a performance BAT and move Jax to the closer role. Highest leverage and more perceived value for future contracts/paydays. The AAA depth with Matthews - Morris - C. Lewis - Raya all point to Jax staying in the Pen being the right move. IMO, Festa is ahead of Paddack for a rotation spot. Paddack helps add great depth to the Pen if Duran is traded or Paddack is traded with another guy or two for a youthful option at some position.
  4. JD-TWINS
    “Trout had to go back down” ……I realize this is not uncommon. My thought is to minimize this possibility for Emma and not to experiment at the MLB level. I would like to see any player try to work out a big % of his potential struggles somewhere other than in the Twin’s line-up. I don’t think that bringing a guy up in April means he will be solid by June 15. Twins need to focus on winning - you and I are just fans with differing opinions……..how they approach it won’t be solved here. Personally, I don’t see anyone (Emma) that’s only had success through AA (while frequently hurt) take the place of a more proven veteran bat from outside the system (FA) when Spring Training breaks. Have a nice Thanksgiving!!
  5. JD-TWINS
    Sorry - I need to find your list. Didn’t notice you addressed the others that are better than our 3 guys…..will check it out.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Outside of the Dodgers & Seattle…..who are these 3 pitchers on one staff that are OBVIOUSLY better than the Twin’s top 3? Statistically, when Ryan went down the Twins were in the mix for a top 3, many of Lopez good innings/starts came in August & shortly after that timing & that boosted his place on the list. Texas has some nice names that are on the 40 man but they don’t pitch much. Pittsburgh is in the come with their top 3. Maybe there’s another one or two?
  7. JD-TWINS
    I disagree in general but can’t argue that it’s some major strength. Ryan’s health is the biggest question mark for me. I don’t see Paddack in the rotation ……… traded, or he’s the “upgrade” in the Pen. Not going to look it up but SWR must have started 25 games in ‘24……,to me, he’s a reasonable #4/#5 guy & I think he proved that…..ran out of gas last 4-5 starts. I like Festa. Don’t see a real downside having him slotted #5/#4 in the rotation. After a Top 5, Team will be in a similar spot to most clubs, they’ll have to rely on unproven young guys to back fill…….not too many Teams outside of Seattle - L.A. have a long string of quality starters 1-5 plus a few.
  8. JD-TWINS
    Definitely, if he earns a spot!! My contention is an organization doesn’t promote a guy to get seasoned at the MLB level unless they are rebuilding, i.e. the Brewers when Yount was 19 OR if they have Machado, Tatis, Boegarts, Kim, & Profar to carry the offensive load. To me the Twins are in a win now mode……all the rostered guys need to be competent to produce. Being enamored with the new shiny toy in the minors with great stats at High A or AA or wherever, can’t drive how a team tries to win in the season that’s 4 months ahead. I’m talking in generalities here, not just about Emma. 30 organizations have AAA teams for a reason and development (polishing for the Show) is at least 75% of AAA function. Skipping that is not prudent in my opinion. If he tears the cover off and hits a handful of curves/sliders hard in Spring Training, give him a shot.
  9. JD-TWINS
    If Teams want guys to be superstars they should jump AAA? That seems to be a pretty out of the norm thinking. MLB isn’t a place to season guys because they’ve been hyped in an organization…….Lee is a great example. Not a huge Lee guy myself…….TEAM needs to win games not focus on creating superstars by letting them practice an an everyday line-up spot. A guy that has serious potential flaws in his approach at the plate in lower levels (doesn’t swing enough to keep MLB pitchers honest & struggles with breaking balls) needs to work on things and have success of some sort relative to those flaws before coming to the Show.
  10. JD-TWINS
    I don’t understand the logic behind a 22 year old not gaining value in spending 2-5 months at AAA. The guy had 200 plus AB’s in ‘24. IMO, he needs to gain experience AND play a couple months straight without getting hurt. He doesn’t hit off speed stuff well per the post. Just doesn’t seem like a guy who is near ready for the Show. I really don’t see where he would play the first couple months while he’s practicing his hitting approach in the Bigs? He doesn’t displace any of the current 3 options. He needs AB’s and repetition and guidance before he starts dealing with MLB pitchers every day.
  11. JD-TWINS
    BTW - free agent 1B, coveted by many around baseball, Christian Walker is 6’0” and he seems pretty good defensively at 1B!……..Keaschall is 6’0” as well.
  12. JD-TWINS
    So, I agree with you that the article reads that he may not be optimal at 1B……..however, this year’s Gold Glove winner, Carlos Santana is 5’11” & 210lb while Keaschall is a “short” 6’0” & 190 lb. Seems like he’d have the athleticism to be fine at 1B. I thought he got to St. Paul before having surgery……..sounds like Best Case for Twins debut may be August. Bummer. I was hoping he may be at 2B or 1B daily by end of June. Just hope he’s healthy and can actually compete by mid-February!
  13. JD-TWINS
    I like the current Pen potential. Paddack, to me, is a great fit and has the mentality to throw 75 innings over 45-50 appearances. That fits his innings capabilities over a season, with good stuff in essentially every outing. $7.5M is worthwhile for a bridge guy to get from beginning of 6th through 7th. I’d seriously consider, if budget cannot change, trading Duran with other pieces to get a BAT. Jax - closer…….bigger $$ value going forward so he forgets the “2nd chance as starter” whim! Alcala - Blewett - Funderburk - Headrick - Henriquez - Jax - Moran - Paddack - Sands - Stewart - Tonkin - Topa - Varland (3 guys are hurt - 2 guys don’t perform - still have 8 solid guys) ……….. Canterino - Prielipp if healthy later in Summer ………. Raya in late August out of Pen as well……. if they can keep Duran and get a serious BAT by other means this Pen is elite! Without Duran the Pen is still very solid!!
  14. JD-TWINS
    It’s kind of like reversing the DH rule. Player’s Union likes all the arms that get a chance to throw as hard as they can for as long as they can ……..once they sign a deal they get paid if they are pitching or recovering from Tommy John or whatever surgery may be needed. I like the better “pitcher” mentality and more starter innings via pitching smart and not max effort…….don’t see “staffs” reverting to this. Maybe one guy on every other staff through baseball - 15 guys.
  15. JD-TWINS
    No real positive with increasing fastball usage. He’s already at a % that can allow or induce the opponent to just sit on his fastball. Very few pitchers can get by with just stuff……deception, pitch mix, and surprise are very important. If Ryan or anyone starts throwing nearly 60% of one pitch it’s going to be a problem…….at least for a starter.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Ceiling seems to be driving the ranking! He was an 18 year old Low A pitcher, so #4 seems like a stretch unless he was dominant. He wasn’t. Prospects are all guesses until they perform in the Show…….i.e. Brooks Lee. Let’s give him to July of ‘26 to see how he’s doing ……. he’ll be 20. Certainly no reason to hate on him nor doubt his potential. Quite a few guys have command issues at 18…..walks not a big deal.
  17. JD-TWINS
    You tender everyone except Tonkin - no big surprise. Never, ever thought I would consider trading Lewis or Duran. Lewis, in ‘25, is too high of a ceiling guy and still very inexpensive. Duran though, I think, if moved with one of the current catchers, might help get back a real Catcher with youth and either defensive or offensive upgrades over whichever guy goes in trade. I push for an infield of Lee - CC - Keaschall - Lewis………between Kesschall and Lewis, I don’t care who plays 1B or 2B. Seems to me Keaschall has arm problems so it may fit him? Lewis has the size & offensive profile at 1B with leg issues - so maybe him? This infield may not come together until June. Lee is the best defensive fit at 3B…..maybe needs to square up offense in St. Paul?! In the meantime, Miranda and Julien can play 3B - 2B as needed. These moves reduce the need to sign an expensive guy at 1B…….. focus on Catcher upgrade and ride with current Staff. Duran - Castro - Jeffers - Paddack - Matthews - Julien are the trade pieces in my mind. Catcher in trade and maybe a real BAT in the OF as a FA after shedding salary? PEN: (assuming Duran traded) Headrick - Henriquez - Stewart - Topa - Paddack (if kept) - Varland - Alcala - Sands - Jax - Blewett - Moran - Funderburk - (maybe) Tonkin ……….Canterino - Prielipp - Raya all late summer adds potentially…….Paddack’s innings capabilities seem to fit the Bullpen……he could be a key bridge guy there over 45-50 appearances & 75 innings.
  18. JD-TWINS
    2024 comps: WHIP 1.294 1.245 ERA 4.17 5.00 Innings 133 66 GS 28 16 $$ in ‘25 $800K $8.6M W-L 5-5 3-6 SO/BB 2.44 2.64 WAR. 2.00. .90 Age. 22 yrs. 26 yrs Luzardo is on the right……better stuff & ceiling is a given! Health, age, & cost……results……...I’ll keep SWR at this point. Theoretically, at same $800K, David Festa has a higher ceiling than SWR for ‘25. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya at AAA, along with the Top 3 rotation guys Twins have, I am optimistic about the Twin’s rotation as is.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Twins trading Wallner seems to me to be as likely as them spending $200M on payroll. LOCAL kid (26 yrs) with best Slug% on the Team, 2nd highest OBP with 2.2WAR in 75 games. Why would anyone, with any organization, trade that away? Eddie Julien being in the Majors with any team in ‘25 is not a high % prospect……. (in ‘24 he hit .199 with an OBP of .292 & a 74 OPS+ over 94 games - not an average defender at his primary position) Playing FIRST Base for anyone, including the Twins, is another couple standard deviations away from being real. Not sure why Eddie is being thought of as some plausible option at 1B……other than desperation? I hope he turns it around but my hopes won’t help him at all.
  20. JD-TWINS
    To me they need offense and the Staff is covered with what’s currently in the organization. …….. TRADE Duran in a package for a good young Catcher or a BAT that can play 1B or OF……maybe takes 2-3 more guys from Twin’s side?…..Castro - one of the current Catchers - Julien - ….. maybe Matthews or C. Lewis? Rotation: Festa - Lopez - SWR - Ober - Ryan …. Morris - C. Lewis - Matthews - Raya are all in St Paul for depth. Pen: Alcala - Sands - Stewart - Topa - Paddack - Jax - Varland - Henriquez - Funderburk - Headrick - Moran ………Prielipp - Canterino are fantasy additions with health …….. Raya makes sense by August! That’s 14 guys to piece together 8 spots over 6 months. Guys like Blewett and Tonkin will be around through the season (like guys) to eat some innings.
  21. JD-TWINS
    See no chance of Jax moving to rotation…….why would they do this other than to appease Jax. I make HIM the closer and he can make more $$ in that role. I trade Duran in a package for offense or good young Cstcher.
  22. JD-TWINS
    Completly agree, out on Luzardo…….his WHIP is over 1.200 for his career and it’s been over 1.200 his last 2 seasons. He was out with back problems and had 16 starts with a 5.00 ERA in ‘24. EVERYONE here rides the front office about making bad trades and trades for pitchers that are hurt and don’t pan out ……… Jesus Luzardo may be the poster child for this scenario. After the ‘22 season I was in love with the guy!! Couldn’t imagine why Twins would trade for Lopez instead of Luzardo……….sooo very glad they did not. He’s a major risk and there certainly is no reason to covet him. …. I don’t think I’d trade Luke Keaschall for him straight up. Non starter trade for me. I think our staff is just fine! TWINS need a BAT and a decent, youthful Catcher. They need to move one of their current catchers in trade. Also, they need to move pitchers that are of interest to trade partners……. Castro can be a trade piece as well as Julien. Pitchers may be Matthews - C. Lewis - Duran - Henriquez - Paddack.
  23. JD-TWINS
    I have nearly zero affinity for Lee. My comment was he/Julien/Keaschall would earn time at 2B based on performance. Seems pragmatic - right? He’s the back-up at 3B & SS because he’s potentially on the bench & available.
  24. JD-TWINS
    A real Funk suggestion here: Move Lewis to 1B …….. stand pat in the OF with Wallner - Buxton - Larnach - Martin - Kiersey ….with Rodriguez on the come by July if needed……..Lee/Keascahal/Julien at 2B based on performance……Correa at SS and Willy Adames at 3B for 5 years and $130M…. too low on $$? He makes the Team, with this infield going forward, a real contender. There’s value for him there as well! Lee & Adames cover any innings at 3B & SS as needed if CC misses time. Could trade Castro - Duran - Paddack & decline Tonken’s $$. This gives team $17.5M to apply toward the Adames contract ($26M)…….add some trade pieces as needed from AAA to get a decent young catcher and use Vazquez or Jeffers in the trade to save another $4.7M minimum. That’s $22.2 M of the $$ needed to pay Adames. Team is for sale and this is a Big Swing but sure makes the Team attractive for years to come……..Rodriguez & Jenkins coming in future in OF.
  25. JD-TWINS
    They could use better defensive play - for sure. Problem they had though was scoring runs the last 6 weeks. They were 17 games over .500 at that point and a bunch of that bad defense was already behind them……. guys like Tommy Pham aren’t going to help with the glove nor with his legs. No perfect Teams but I like guys that are bat first nearly every time. Pham may be a fit but I doubt that out of Spring Training, maybe added later?
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