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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    TWINS - best record in A.L. since April 22 at 46-27. …….headed in the right direction to catch Cleveland. The Guardians have some pretty good line-up balance and a couple Stars! Kwan & Ramirez are formidable and will not back up much…….can’t play any better! The 1B & C Naylor bros. help with key hitting. Good up the middle!! I think they’ll figure out a way to improve their staff this month via trade. They have THE BEST record in A.L. and cannot be underestimated. Buxton is hitting .395 over approximately last 20 games - Miranda went crazy for a week - Lee joined the Club on fire……..going to be regression with these guys and with CC up in the air, Twins have their hands full to keep winning 6 of every 10! IMO, Kepler - Santana - Castro - Jeffers staying at current levels or above are the key to driving the offense……..gotta keep line-up long and can’t have dead spots in the line-up. Rotation arm health and ability to handle innings totals will be in question in another 45 days as well………same for all teams.
  2. JD-TWINS
    Kirilloff 2023: 281 AB’s - .270 BA - 26 XBH - .348 OBP - 117 OPS+ - .793 OPS - 41 RBI Castro 2024: ….(at the Break) 339 AB’s - .265 BA - 34 XBH - .352 OBP - 119 OPS+ - .774 OPS - 30 RBI ………ALL-STAR Should we trade Kirilloff knowing he was hurt and knowing Kepler & Santana are gone?
  3. JD-TWINS
    Sure seems to me that Correa should got to the 10 day IL retroactive to last Saturday, the 13th. Julien comes up to play 2B and Castro plays SS with Lee at 3B for a week…..and Correa comes back. Castillo seems to have earned a shot. Not resting Correa to stay healthy for longer term doesn’t makes sense to me - particularly since he said in hindsight he wished he rested more last year soon after his foot diagnosis. I’d have Eddie play 2B and see if they notice any improvement and when Miranda comes back I’d option Castillo. I’ve been hard on Julien but I feel better about him after 5 weeks in St. Paul than I do with Castillo.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I’m not trying to make this an issue with you - I get your slant - the MLB Twins 40-man doesn’t have him on IL ……he’s “in the minors” so my assumption is he has to take up space on 40-man and can’t remain on IL anymore?
  5. JD-TWINS
    Appreciate the note/information. The reason I asked was because I was looking at the 40-man roster and it shows he’s “in the Minors” and not on the IL any longer……….if he went on IL 4/23, does he have to come off automatically on 6/23?
  6. JD-TWINS
    Am curious, I can’t determine when Headrick made his starts in St. Paul this year…..I see he’s started 2 games and is not on IL. His ERA is 2.08 and he has 15K’s in 8 2/3 work. Not sure if that’s recent or 2 months old? Seems encouraging - need to see more volume but encouraging. Any timing on these outings?
  7. JD-TWINS
    I surely hope Larnach stays no lower than where he is now and starts to climb again at the plate! ………I have no idea what Matt Wallner may do moving forward……..he may hit 6 HR’s or he might be hitting .195 by August 10th - maybe both? Anyway, one of these 2 guys could fold up just as Kirilloff did in May/June. For depth sake, I don’t see a big enough upside in moving Kirilloff at his current value. If they package him with another guy or two in the offseason, fine, assuming some decent return.
  8. JD-TWINS
    As a contrast……Kirilloff, per reports, was struggling with a wrist problem in ‘21 & ‘22. If we believe reports over the last month, he had a back problem this year and didn’t share the info with the club. Real, I guess so? Kirilloff in 2023, coming off major wrist surgery and healthy for first time in a few years: 281 AB’s - .270 BA - .348 OBP - .793 OPS - 117 OPS+ - 26 XBH……….not an “Average hitter”. An elite defender, but these numbers mirror Willi Castro’s offense as of today for ‘24 & he’s going to the All-star game. With Santana gone and Kepler gone, as pointed out above, seems to kick the door wide open for Kirilloff to get one more shot as a healthy guy in ‘25. His lack of sharpness on defense is offset a bit by his flexibility to play either corner or 1B - right? He was everybody’s hero after 3-4 weeks in April with 3 triples already. When did back become an issue???? Maybe gotta take a deep breath and give him one more shot.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Agree on the Duran curves. He turns OK hitters into threats by not establishing his velocity and then pitching off that. He does have a habit of, or the Team has decided with him, to throw mostly 2 pitches per outing……at least many times that’s been the case. Assuming opponents pick up in this. If he throws a curve……he’s probably throwing another one in next 2-3 pitches. Best option is to just sit on that because they can’t typically deal with his fastball. I watched one game and all he threw were splits & curves……,I wonder how much comes back to pitch calling from bench and catcher……..,Duran obviously likes the swing & miss he has in his curve but maybe it needs to be located better or just set-up better?
  10. JD-TWINS
    If he doesn’t suck. he’ll help drive the offense. If he hits like Julien did for 2 months it will be a problem for theTeam’s success. Not asking him to hit .280 or else……he’s part of the engine though……if he’s not providing offense yet he should be in St Paul instead of on a Team trying to win a Division.
  11. JD-TWINS
    You cannot have a Plantar Faciaitis diagnosis Saturday morning and take 2 days off and then go balls out on Tuesday in an Exhibition Game - that’s nuts. I think he should go - have fun with his kids - see some buddies around the League. That’s it though…..to the IL by Friday.
  12. JD-TWINS
    Nope…… I think, just me, that he wants to go to Texas for his kids/Family. I think he’ll get dressed & hang with his kids & play catch with a couple buddies and won’t see the field during the game. Wears tennis shoes the whole week. He’ll go to the IL prior to next weekend’s start up…….gotta get some rest, per his own comments about his other foot hurt last year, “more rest sooner would have been better.” He’s not a selfish guy - he’s not sitting last couple days to be good to play Tuesday……unless he thinks he’ll come back next Saturday w/o a problem. I think he hits the IL and Julien is back up to play 2B on Saturday.
  13. JD-TWINS
    TWINS own an 18-6 Series Record since April 22. In each of the 6 series they lost ……..they won 1 of the 3 games. 46-27, best record in A.L. since April 22. Topa - Henriquez - Stewart can supplement the Pen for a stretch as needed until September. At that point Varland gets committed to Pen & adds a shot in the arm……IMO, Varland is Alcala level if throwing to 3-6 guys at a time. Injuries need to be navigated out of the Break! Wallner staying relevant is a big deal….. he’s starting to K a bunch in last couple games. Castro not falling off is a big deal - he could use a break! I think Jeffers - Santana - Kepler will be up & down but above average overall. Buxton - Correa - Lewis - Lee - Miranda need to drive the offense. As I type, 4 of them are hurt. Gotta get healthy, generally! Lopez has to throw well at least 3 of every 4 starts to establish himself at the top of the rotation and more importantly, give the Team a chance in 75% of his starts at a minimum. Gotta be able to lean on him!
  14. JD-TWINS
    They do need to lean on their youth depth! CC needs a break to minimize the foot damage……. should go to IL immediately after the All-star break. Miranda is out & back stuff can linger. Martin is out at least another week plus once they start up again. Lewis is out for another month…….even Farmer can’t fill in now. I agree, bringing guys up is key……seems they have committed to Castillo for a bit - need Julien back after the break so Castro & Lee can play the left side. Guys from AA is a bit of a stretch - nobody’s making that jump and it isn’t necessary in any fathomable situation.
  15. JD-TWINS
    IMO, he needs to go to IL right after his trip to Texas for All-star game!!! I get he wants to have his kids with him at the All-star game but he shouldn’t do anything but hang with his buddies and his kids. His foot needs to heel a bit before hurting it more. He was quoted on today’s broadcast that he wish he would have rested his other foot longer right when it started bothering him. Can’t go to All-star game when on IL is my assumption so give him 3 more days. Wow - watching the end of game in SF. Margot went from offensive hero to defensive goat. LOSS due to over aggressive path and subsequent dive for the ball. Needed Correa on the field to yell at Lee, “CUT & HOLD” …Lee made Margot’s play even worse - looked like little league! Anyway, Castro - Lee holding down the left side for a while with Correa - Lewis - Miranda all on IL. Time to bring Eddie up to play 2B & keep Castillo around for depth guy. Makes sense to me to try and get Martin, Miranda, Correa, & Lewis back in that order over next 3-4 weeks. Really hope the CC to All-star game & then the Series holds true. Need him back soon - this foot injury is scary!
  16. JD-TWINS
    …..Bases were loaded…..forced to run
  17. JD-TWINS
    They are 12-5 in his starts so he’s getting the job done - tough to get wins as a Starter these days. His WHIP swells once in a while but he did have 7K’s yesterday. His ERA is around 3.6 so that’s pretty representative of how he’s doing or “how good he is”.
  18. JD-TWINS
    …….anybody, other than maybe Buxton gets thrown out at home ……bases loaded and infield in, anybody!! 2B made a bonehead play to allow the run to score. Don’t pull everyone in to then go for the double play…….???? I think the base hit to be on, to later extend the lead, is the point. He didn’t score the winning run but his run helped everyone’s mindset in the bottom of the 9th. I commend him for lacing up and playing 3B…..no great plays …….a smarter opponent may have tried to continually expose him. It worked out.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Exactly my thoughts. I wanted Lee to take over at 3B just because he looks more adept than Lewis, even after just a handful of games. Then he plays 2B and makes 3-4 plays that were really solid…….doesn’t seem to rely on bouncing the ball into the grass or dirt from either spot. Where does he end up on D? Severino and a buddy to displace Camargo & Miranda (for few days)…….might damage Camargo’s ego! I paused and just saw someone posted Castillo up and Miranda to IL. Farmer may see 60 day IL & then, if desired, carried through September with expanded roster?
  20. JD-TWINS
    I think you’re adding? I saw Vazquez play 2B last year for a couple innings as well. Miranda might play 2B if somebody breaks their wrist for part of a game but I can’t even imagine how that might happen. I love what I read about Keaschall and his development physically & as a multi-position player! He’s in AA though, might want to pump the brakes. I think Lee played there twice in St. paul? Martin - Lewis - Lee are all SS that can play the other positions on the dirt, we’re all assuming. I live in Cincinnati, and yes, Steer can play 2B. He’s played SS a handful of games last year as well. Usually in LF this year with the glut of infielders the Reds have. He played 1B last night. He’s their version of Castro. 3B is his best infield position. Severino & Martin can cover 2B going forward with some help from or maybe even anchored by Castro? Polanco’s gone - trade Julien in a package with another AAA bat and a A ball prospect for an arm. Kirilloff’s available as well. Schobiel and another guy or two in a second package. Give Tampa Bay a call for an arm. Keaschall will be on the Club next September or will be worth more in trade this time next year. He seems to have a spot somewhere on the Roster in ‘26 at this point!
  21. JD-TWINS
    Offense could use a couple breaks (4 balls caught at the wall in past couple games) - run scoring has been listless over past half dozen games - prior they lit it up. Looking at OPS+ earlier………if Farmer & Margot go away at some point in August……..Team has 12 of 13 guys at 99 OPS+ or better now …..League average is 100 OPS+ ……Twins have 7 guys at 125 or above and 5 at 148 or above. (realize Lee - Wallner - Lewis are small samples and skewed a bit) Offense should come around soon enough!
  22. JD-TWINS
    A guy brought up the question about Margot being in the lead-off spot last night - citing his stats as a lead-off hitter is somehow skewed? That’s like saying a pitcher who gives up 2 or less runs over his past 5 games but has a 4.00 ERA after 14 games isn't pitching better now because his overall ERA is 4.00. (Ober like) Recent performance matters whether you think so or not! Vazquez sucks generally - certainly for the year! However, he’s had an OPS of .810 over last 18 games……got him a shot at DH last night. Buxton was mired in mediocrity through most of the first 2 plus months of the season……he’s been on fire for 20 games…….recent events matter. The stat that I throw around relative to Margot is .899 OPS from beginning of June through a week ago. If a guy hits .100 for a month, he can’t get back to .250 in a blink of an eye. I’m not in love with Margot in any way but fair is fair…….he was terrible……he became proficient…..,,we’ll see how long he can contribute and hang on from here.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Weird Kepler didn’t start after a day off. I guess, giving Wallner a chance v. Lefty that most here clamor for……he’s not Max in the OF! Do not disagree with Jeffers - his skills behind the plate seem to be regressing……or just getting worse….,,base skills seem to be lacking. Miranda got scratched so, with an .810 OPS over the past 18 games, Vazquez DHed. Last 33 games for Camargo he’s hit .213 in St. Paul.
  24. JD-TWINS
    Miranda was scratched which pushed Vazquez into duty……didn’t hear but Miranda must have been sick? He was on the bench - in a heavy hoodie. Margot quite often leads-off v. LH pitching over past 2 months - pretty good rate of success over that period.
  25. JD-TWINS
    You have obviously looked into the numbers further than I’m willing to this morning, but I must pose a question. If Farmer-Margot-Thielbar-Kepler-Santana are all gone (assuming 2024 payroll is at $124M?) it seems pre-arb total (am unaware, Lopez may get a few million raise?) would be closer to $93M - maybe I’m off somewhere? Anyway, I get your point. Does everyone here think the Pohlad’s will force the 2021 equivalent payroll total again in 2025? I’m removed from the Twin Cities buzz daily on what the conversation may be regarding excuses/rationalizations for not spending. Seems $135-$140 would be more commensurate with their market size, etc for 2025……I get what I or anybody thinks or hopes for doesn’t matter a bit. Is the strategy forward hunting guys like Lugo - Flaherty - etc. on the back end of their perceived value for $12M per year and trade LOPEZ to free up $10M? I don’t see how a FO puts a club together without potentially moving a Correa (type of salary) with a $125M payroll. I do not want to even suggest moving on from Correa but objectively, with a tight budget, it seems rolling the dice with an infield corp of Lewis-Lee-Martin-Julien-Castro-Miranda-Severino may need to be considered. Gotta have pitching and can’t be losing arms in arbitration years due to budget. If the real goal is to WIN it all, and to capitalize on the Correa & Buxton investments, the Team can’t go 70% of the way on the pitching staff (or arbitration players) spending. The best answer is to get back to near the 2023 budget and move forward - obviously. All that said, Montgomery - Snell - Maeda and probably a handful of other TD “must sign” candidates from the last offseason are not having years (their results) anyone would want at nearly any price………reinforces the risk with spending big on arms…….I was begging for a trade to get Devin Williams to make the PEN bulletproof and he hasn’t thrown an inning ….,risk, always the rationalization for not spending.
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