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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    To me, going into age 28 season, Trevor Larnach is the principal left fielder. He had a 116 OPS+ …….with 450 AB’s (355 in ‘24) he projects to 20HR & 75 RBI ………while taking a WAR knockdown while DHing in ‘24, he still had 1.3 WAR for the year. IF, he can stay healthy…..he could be a solid 2.5 WAR guy in LF for another 3-4 years with a probable path to DH with additional steady production. I saw a couple comments about putting him into a potential trade with Paddack or another - don’t understand the desire or thought to move a guy who seems to have matured as a hitter into what the Team hoped for the previous 2-3 seasons??
  2. JD-TWINS
    Is trying to extend Vazquez another year crazy? What if they offered another year and leveled the salary to $7.25M per year? Crazy for both sides? I think trading Jeffers & Castro or Paddack along with a real arm (i.e. Matthews or Duran) could net a decent young Catcher back in trade. Gotta be a way to trade for more than a Catching “prospect” & actually net back someone that can play now & into the future.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Off the topic a bit…… on a MLB post today and parallel to other posts here routinely: ”Twins need right handed bats (per MLB post - “anywhere”) - I don’t agree or understand! As things currently stand…… 2 RH hitting Catchers 3B - SS - 1B all RH hitters CF - RH hitter Probable 2B (Lee or Castro) switch hitter Corner OF spots are LH & that’s it - Martin is nearly a certain 4th OF and hits RH. How important is adding a RH bat??? Team needs a good HITTER at Catcher or 1B or (maybe lastly) at Corner OF. Desperate for a RH hitter - don’t think so.
  4. JD-TWINS
    Hitting a bunch of really hard hit balls into the gaps are signs of a good hitter - an obvious comment. Correa - Wallner & even Miranda, prior to his annual physical injury, showed this capability often. Vazquez did for 6-9 week stretch……didn’t see it from either second basemen!! Lee & Vazquez hitting routine ground balls to the pull side show signs of guys that aren’t confident or aren’t mentally capable/in tune …….they both have shown previously or during ‘24 that they have the physical tools. Hoping a BUNCH of reps in off-season and in the Spring, along with some new coaching angles, get these two somewhere near their potential. Vazquez is near 35 so I’m not nearly concerned as much with his improvement as I am with Lee. .265 OBP is brutal - rookie or not, being 50 points under League average is pretty bad!
  5. JD-TWINS
    I cannot read it either - all black in text areas? Anyway, I agree that adding Suzuki at $15M and feeling he then would “need to play” in front of Larnach or Wallner is a problem. One of those guys will probably need to play RF v. LH pitching (alternate?) with Martin in LF & Buxton in CF. With the health issues that Buxton has had and Kiersey as the “other CF”, it’s tougher & tougher to see trading away Castro.
  6. JD-TWINS
    Nothing personal but I just can’t agree with the let’s let younger guys go or guys that have underperformed in a situation, to see what happens. To me that’s just wish thinking and reckless. Maybe Ozk if it’s a 5th OF once or twice a week. Do those two corner guys deserve some more AB’s v. LH pitching - yes! Can the Team play them together and “see what happens” - seems like a huge roll of the dice. Larnach gets nicked too often, historically, and Wallner had some back issues last year, so having a real offensive option to rotate with these two and add needed depth seems prudent!
  7. JD-TWINS
    So, if the Team decides to stick with the arms they have (maybe trade 2-4 but don’t acquire any) and they stick with Larnach - Martin - Buxton - Kiersey - Wallner ………..they could make some trades/moves that could end desperation at 2B & upgrade offense……..Luis could be part of that scheme. Trade Castro - Paddack - Matthews - Jeffers to San Diego for the young Catcher & Arraez. This would give San Diego a solid 2nd Catching option with a decent bat OR a trade piece to someone else, acquiring Jeffers. Twins acquire Maille of Reds as a FA for $2.5M (or like). Also, SD picks up a present arm option and a probable future arm option. They get Castro to help fill behind losing Kim and Profar, etc. Twins develop young catcher & they add Arraez as a guy that can play 2B if nobody else can hit - maybe a bridge to Keaschall or Lee? Also, he can play 1B daily if Miranda needs a break or is injured. DH maybe 30-40% of the time. Twins free up $18.5M in trade and then spend $14.5 & $2.5 to fill the Catcher spot and pay Luis. Seems Arraez won’t make much more than the arbitration number of $14.5M, ever ……..is he worth 145 games of consistent performance at the plate with right side defense and little L/R weakness v. opposing pitchers. Probably better off keeping Jeffers and moving Vazquez, maybe elsewhere, even if they have to pay $3-$5M of his salary. Basic line-up: Arraez - Lewis - Larnach - Correa - Wallner - Buxton - Miranda - Lee - Catcher I’d prefer they trade for a young 1B that can hit OR similar profile Catcher & stay away from FA but not sure this is realistic?
  8. JD-TWINS
    Tough to see any position guys fitting the 26-man no matter what the upside. Can’t be a short, low average first baseman or some Catcher that needs to be developed - can’t roster a non-contributor or weak link IF trying to contend. The PEN seems filled at this point - a Rule 5 guy would just displace Tonkin or somehow delay using Varland in the Pen. I know the occasional success story makes this option intriguing. To me, the Rule 5 fits a Team that isn’t expecting to be in the playoff mix & they can absorb some weak short-term performances with the future in mind.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Gotta keep Ober! Ryan is too affordable and effective as well - health? Nobody is trading for a guy that’s not healthy. I’d add Matthews - Henriquez - C. Lewis - into the mix with positional guys on list above to get trade partners to take action. These individuals don’t help with salary relief but they make moving $$ guys easier if combined in a trade. Correa isn’t going anywhere. Royce Lewis needs a full season at Target before any thoughts of him being traded are put in motion. One of the Catchers (probably Jeffers) should be moved with another couple pieces (Castro - Matthews) to bring back a young Catcher that can play. Hard to see upside in trading Vazquez and then having to pay 50% of his salary as well. I’m sure there’s a way along with another piece or two to lower or eliminate the $$ outlay, but pretty difficult to assume how it may work.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Camargo hit .212 in St Paul - he had a .290 something OBP…….he makes Vazquez’ offense look like Yogi Berra. He didn’t play because he’s not a great receiver and he can’t hit. Any sensible MLB Manager would not play him unless forced into it due to unfortunate circumstance. The fact that the Twins have no apparent Catcher with upside in their system is hard to imagine. Olivera plays Catcher & OF……doesn’t seem to be a great option either. This is a draft and development issue……nothing to do with the Manager. It’s a shame for sure! I’d try to lump Jeffers in a trade with an arm or two in order to get back a solid young Catcher. Need to find a trade partner that’s competitive and would value the addition of Jeffers along with pitching g help (Paddack - Matthews - whoever)
  11. JD-TWINS
    Trade a Veteran catcher to a contender for a young guy that’s ready to play 60 games in ‘25. IMO, either Vazquez or Jeffers could catch 100 games reasonably well. OR, trade one of our Catchers, plus a couple arms for a reasonably established catcher and keep splitting duties 50/50.
  12. JD-TWINS
    They don’t have any intention of trading Moreno……that’s why you give them 5 players (3 pitchers of differing value - a solid catcher - an All-star Utility guy) & take Montgomery off their hands. They need to be enticed!
  13. JD-TWINS
    I think Ryan may have hit his way out of the DH opportunities after June 15. A non- issue.
  14. JD-TWINS
    My impression of Rule 5 is that the guy has to be on MLB roster - maybe wrong? Anyway, $2.5M is well spent v. having a guy that has 75 AAA at bats……..unimpressive AB’s as well ……..,can’t go there. Trade for a Catcher - young guy that can play - not a high draft pick that’s “expected to pan out eventually”. Give up players to solve this - trade Jeffers to fill the young guy’s spot in trade partner organization. Pitching & an everyday player - whatever they need to piece together to bring the right guy to the Twins.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I was hoping they may have more time, and could have traded Vazquez and a young arm and $2M somewhere to acquire D’Arnauld as a free agent for $6M/yr ………would have had a 2 year plan and saved $2M/yr. and had better offense. Even discussing Camargo as a potential option (other than emergency injury replacement) is silly to me. .298 OBP at AAA doesn’t translate to MLB consideration unless he’s elite behind the plate - he’s not. Not an option out of Spring Training or probably ever. In a perfect world they trade Jeffers - Castro - Matthews - Paddack - Henriquez to AZ for their Catcher (Moreno) and Jordan Montgomery (Twins take on $12M). AZ gets rid of a mutually bad situation with Montgomery and they get value back! Twins flip Montgomery to Red Sox along with Duran and another piece (Miranda?) for 1B Tristan Casas. To me, targeting Casas and doing whatever to achieve that end is worthwhile. Pertinent here, solves Catcher issues! Also, saves $18.5M. The $$ saved and the individuals can change but the acquisition of those 2 guys allows Team to compete with anyone.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Tough to trade guys that can’t earn a spot in the present club……I like them both. They both earned my respect in ‘24. I had high expectations for Wallner and he was brutal early……really came back and produced for 10 weeks! Larnach looked like a professional hitter and just kept exuding more confidence and a calm at the plate. PEN might be OK if it’s erasable ink…. I do think they will be mainstays in the line-up!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    I agree on the 2.0WAR (or less) veterans being signed for whatever $$, doesn’t make sense …….just play Martin & Kiersey as with through mid-May and hope one of them takes off……..let Emma get more AB’s at AAA so he can drop into a slot by June 1. Don’t need Cahna or Grichuk or similar!
  18. JD-TWINS
    What do you think his chances are to play decent to good defense in CF and hit similarly to Martin? Seriously. To me that should be a real expectation……300 AB’s - hit .245 - .255 or better - 20 doubles - 9-10 HR - good defense - 90 OPS or better. A fast #9 hitter while Rodriguez develops OR a bridge until they make a trade at the deadline if needed.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Nobody should expect a “healthy” Buxton to start more than 85 games in CF…….another 25 at DH……that’s a positive volume of action for him! If Kiersey platoons predominantly v. RH pitching, he can pick up 65-75 starts in CF and another 15-20 between LF & RF. He hasn’t shown that he should be relied upon to start more than 90-100 games in the SHOW…..hasn’t shown he should be relied upon to start more than 15 games so far. Kiersey - Martin - Larnach - Buxton - Wallner is the OF …….. Castro (if Julien & Lee & Keaschall can hit some in the Spring) may be available for a bunch of innings in OF if he’s not traded. I’d probably mix Castro with another piece or two in a trade. I think Kiersey gives them a bridge to Emma &/or trade deadline acquisition.
  20. JD-TWINS
    Agreed! Lots of potential moveable pieces: Duran - Jeffers or Vazquez - Castro - Julien - Paddack - Henriquez - Miranda - Matthews ……..just to name a few. Need a BAT at Catcher or 1B or both!! Personally, I’m fine with not making any OF moves outside the organization. Castro, if not traded, can play LF & CF as needed….Larnach - Buxton/Keirsey - Wallner - Martin are fine with me while Emma gets more ready and Jenkins is a possibility for ‘26.
  21. JD-TWINS
    Gotta hit to be available in front of Keaschall - I have little confidence in the other 2B candidates ability with the bat! I think he’s in St. Paul by end of April if he doesn’t start there out of Spring Training…….@ TARGET by end of June.
  22. JD-TWINS
    No more difficult to throw from 2B in St. Paul v. AA - you’re right! Needs to get to highest level sooner than later. Hoping he’s in Minneapolis by late June!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Montas had a few (6-7) very encouraging outings here in Cincinnati. …….similar results over a couple less outings in Milwaukee. He also had a pretty big number of 4-7 run outings over 3-6 innings. He was the epitome of zero consistency. David Festa can do every bit as well & hopefully, better!! Picking up average pitchers for considerable $$ or for low $$ just doesn’t make sense to me. Team has guys with decent stuff at AAA and the major concern with them is consistency. Anybody available under $16M/yr is a major risk when it comes to consistency. Then there’s Blake Snell & his issues with consistency and injury …… for $35M.
  24. JD-TWINS
    To me, it looks pretty clear that Hays would come in around $6.4M in ‘25, per the post above. His capabilities shown in ‘24 would lead one to stick with the “hard pass” comment from another here. Keep Castro, as he is just as good of an outfielder with capabilities to play 3 spots in the infield. Same cost. Right handed Castro doesn’t fit the bill but Hays doesn’t appear to be a good move w/o a bunch of risk. Better off using youth and rotating them for opportunities with their available options. Can live with Martin’s OF production and defense if they upgrade at 1B!
  25. JD-TWINS
    I propose a complex set of moves that basically has Jax going to the closer role for this specific post. I propose trading Jeffers - Matthews - Henriquez to D-backs for their young catcher Moreno and Jordan Montgomery. Twins take on $13M of his $25M salary. AZ gets rid of Montgomery and gets a reasonable Catcher in Jeffers along with two young, upside arms. Twins then trade Duran (replaces Jansen) - Montgomery - Paddack - Miranda to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (1B). Castro may need to go to Boston instead of Miranda……..Miranda or Castro give them 3B depth for Devers and Miranda could fill 1B - Boston’s preference? TWINS shed $4.7M - $3.7M - $7.5M in moving these guys. An additional $6.3M if Castro is involved. $22.2M to spend. Most importantly they obtain a Catcher & First Baseman along with FA $$ available to fill a need. Dream world??
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